lkaufman wrote:[What conclusion did Sonas reach regarding the human games and draws?
I do't recall that. I do know that he found the standard models for total score were no good, however, and that a linear model would give a much better fit. That behavior cannot persist in the tails, obviously, but there was little data there.
If the BayesElo model is correct, then couldn't it be used to break ties in round-robin events? The players with the same score would not necessarily have the same BayesElo rating, and presumably the one with the higher BayesElo rating has in some real sense performed better. Why has this never been tried or suggested (or has it)? What would be the consequences? Would it be similar to any known tiebreak, or quite different?
It could be used for that. One reason could be that it needs a computer, while tie breakers like SB can be done by hand. (Well, at least with a pocket calculator for most, nowadays...

) Performance ratings could also be different without double-counting draws, btw, depending on which you beat. This would probably be similar to SB, though.