Took one Lichess user that violates TOS - terms of service. Get its rapid rating history and plot it with rolling window of 60 days as its rating is stable by more than 60 days. Confidence interval is +/- 2SD. Blue is actual rating, green is mean red is confidence interval.
There was a sudden change (around +100 Glicko) of rating near the end, and those are outside the CI. It can be a product of long training. A player may violate Lichess TOS by some means, can be in Blitz, rapid, classical, variants and others. In this case it seems like the user is a suspect in this rapid rating. It could be interesting to check those games near the end.
Ferdy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:04 am
Took one Lichess user that violates TOS - terms of service. Get its rapid rating history and plot it with rolling window of 60 days as its rating is stable by more than 60 days. Confidence interval is +/- 2SD. Blue is actual rating, green is mean red is confidence interval.
There was a sudden change (around +100 Glicko) of rating near the end, and those are outside the CI. It can be a product of long training. A player may violate Lichess TOS by some means, can be in Blitz, rapid, classical, variants and others. In this case it seems like the user is a suspect in this rapid rating. It could be interesting to check those games near the ends.
Correction, that rolling window is not number of days but number of data points.
"Motivated"...I think will generally boil down to...money?? It is the greatest motivator.
I have to believe any cheat detecting mechanism involves more than statistical inference or what-have-you in final decisions. ALSO, many if not most online tournaments with cash prizes involve 1 or 2 video feeds showing the participants playing area from various angles.
On a side note, I do like the fact that on LiChess you can see when your opponent is active in the game window. I have noticed on many occasions that when I am able to get some of my opponents in tough situations their active window will become inactive and they often return active right before I can claim a win for leaving the game, and then surprise surprise they play some fantastic saving move. I will not say they are cheating, but 'Something in the milk is not clean'. Sometimes this will happen more the once or even twice in the same game even.
"Good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions."
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Ted Summers
One more thing I will add is that cheating in online games has caused me to change my playing habits when playing online. I used to enjoy LTC games online (15 Min), now I only play blitz (5 or 3 Min). I also play bad or weak opening moves as to avoid computer theory and get my opponents thinking on their own.
"Good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions."
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Ted Summers
Sometimes this will happen more the once or even twice in the same game even.