Not a surprise for real chessfans here I think, because it seems he has hinted at this long before, but it was surprise for me.
Magnus in 'Wijk' (aan Zee)
Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first
place. Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you
are, by definition, not smart enough to debug it.
-- Brian W. Kernighan
When a WC states that he doesn't know if he is going to defend his title that to me is a definite slant towards I am not going to defend it so it's a slight shocker but he has nothing to prove to anyone. He was and still is the strongest player in the world. He even stated, "... I am not motivated to play another match. I simply feel that I don’t have a lot to gain, I don’t particularly like it, and although I’m sure a match would be interesting for historical reasons and all of that, I don’t have any inclination to play and I will simply not play the match."
You have to have a desire and a reason and there has to be a thrill in doing it. I think he has made a smart move. He can just play chess and be a little more loose and have some fun in his chess routine. On the other hand he can always get that desire to prove something and rise again to take the crown. Time will tell. GK quit at his peak as well. The smart ones in any sporting endeavor quit while they are ahead. Just my 2¢ worth.
"Without change, something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken." (Dune - 1984)
I think that when there is a match for the title every year it is natural that the champion does not want to defend his title.
The FIFA World Cup is only one time in 4 years
so I think it is better to have a chess championship match every 4 years and there are better chances that carlsen will have no problem to defend his title.
I'm a little surprised, but this is honestly what I expected. It makes a lot of sense to me why he wouldn't want to play. I mean, what does he have to prove? Both common folks, as well as his peers know he is at the top. So I can understand it's hard to find the motivation to spend another several month preparing for another World Championship match.
I think there's the saying, "quit while you're ahead" for a reason. If the best of any competition continues to play, their skill and ability will eventually start to slip, and they're not going to stay on top forever. And as unfortunate or unfair as it might be, it might often affect their legacy, even if people knew he/she was once the best. So why not go out for now on your own terms, while you're at the top and everyone regards you as the best? And if he really wants to he can always fight for the title back again.
I think what's really going on here (as hinted by Carlsen when saying "not much to gain") is that in a short match like 12 classical games the match will probably be decided by a single game or else in tie-break, and since Nepo is good at Rapid Carlsen's chances to win the match might be just 65% or so, whereas his chances to remain rated world number one for the next year or two are more like 90%. If he doesn't play the match but remains active and rated number 1, he'll still be regarded as the world's best chess player, whereas if he lost the match he might lose that recognition. I'm sure his other reasons were valid too, but if his challenger was likely to pass his rating I think he would have played. Perhaps when one of the current teenagers reaches or nears his Elo a match between them will happen, one way or the other.
He's been quite clear he will continue to be an active player, so he's not really insulating himself from decline; this is not like Kasparov (who also had already lost WC, of course) in that way.
Not really a surprise, as he's been quite clear for over a decade that he cares more about world #1 rating than WC title, even declining to play in the candidates the first time he was eligible, after he was already #1, citing issues with the cycle format.
That he's tired of the disproportionate time and energy demanded by a single short match after competing in 5 WC matches in ~9 years and would rather play on his own schedule in events he's interested in seems unsurprising as well.
I suspect (and hope) he'll stay an active player for quite some time, and will just not bother with the WC.
It might be unfortunate for the status of the WC title, but that's not something I'm all that concerned about. Now to psych up for Nepo-Ding...
lkaufman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:51 pm
I think what's really going on here (as hinted by Carlsen when saying "not much to gain") is that in a short match like 12 classical games the match will probably be decided by a single game or else in tie-break, and since Nepo is good at Rapid Carlsen's chances to win the match might be just 65% or so, whereas his chances to remain rated world number one for the next year or two are more like 90%. If he doesn't play the match but remains active and rated number 1, he'll still be regarded as the world's best chess player, whereas if he lost the match he might lose that recognition. I'm sure his other reasons were valid too, but if his challenger was likely to pass his rating I think he would have played. Perhaps when one of the current teenagers reaches or nears his Elo a match between them will happen, one way or the other.
Well Based on Last Years Match..(Carlsen Crushed Nepo with Zero Losses in a 12 game match) I figure Magnus has a greater than 65% chance of winning a return match... it is possible that the pressure of losing such a match is greater than the rewards of Winning such a Rematch...This whole situation is complicated by Nakamura's strange comments today on his livestream (On whether the Top Grandmasters knew Carlsen would not defend his title during the Candidates tournament) I think they indeed did know Carlsen would not defend his title in the Fall 2022... https://unibet.me/MagnusEffect
In my opinion the title of champion would feel a little empty if it wasn't because of a match victory over Carlsen. Everyone will be thinking what if they had played Carlsen.
lkaufman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:51 pm
I think what's really going on here (as hinted by Carlsen when saying "not much to gain") is that in a short match like 12 classical games the match will probably be decided by a single game or else in tie-break, and since Nepo is good at Rapid Carlsen's chances to win the match might be just 65% or so, whereas his chances to remain rated world number one for the next year or two are more like 90%. If he doesn't play the match but remains active and rated number 1, he'll still be regarded as the world's best chess player, whereas if he lost the match he might lose that recognition. I'm sure his other reasons were valid too, but if his challenger was likely to pass his rating I think he would have played. Perhaps when one of the current teenagers reaches or nears his Elo a match between them will happen, one way or the other.
lkaufman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:51 pm
I think what's really going on here (as hinted by Carlsen when saying "not much to gain") is that in a short match like 12 classical games the match will probably be decided by a single game or else in tie-break, and since Nepo is good at Rapid Carlsen's chances to win the match might be just 65% or so, whereas his chances to remain rated world number one for the next year or two are more like 90%. If he doesn't play the match but remains active and rated number 1, he'll still be regarded as the world's best chess player, whereas if he lost the match he might lose that recognition. I'm sure his other reasons were valid too, but if his challenger was likely to pass his rating I think he would have played. Perhaps when one of the current teenagers reaches or nears his Elo a match between them will happen, one way or the other.
^ this. Nepo on steroids now.
I greatly respect Carlsen and I respect and accept his decision. One thing is for certain though: once the tournament has been completed, he will no longer be the world chess champion.
Want to attract exceptional people? Be exceptional.