How long do you think chess (8x8 board) will be solved by engines?

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

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How long do you think chess will be solved by engines (8x8 board)

15 years
4
13%
20 years
1
3%
25 years
1
3%
30 years
2
7%
35 years
1
3%
40 years
1
3%
45 years
2
7%
50 years
2
7%
60 years
1
3%
80 years
1
3%
100 years
1
3%
It will never be solved by engines
13
43%
 
Total votes: 30

User avatar
towforce
Posts: 12699
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:57 am
Location: Birmingham UK
Full name: Graham Laight

Re: How long do you think chess (8x8 board) will be solved by engines?

Post by towforce »

Uri Blass wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:00 pmOf course it is possible that we do not know that chess engines are theoretically unbeatable but only that they are practically unbeatable that does not prove that they are theoretically unbeatable.

Neither can you prove that its impossible to resolve chess without exhaustively generating every possible line of play to a provable result.

I can think of two ways it might be possible to resolve chess - and the tools to do such work are only improving!
Human chess is partly about tactics and strategy, but mostly about memory
swami
Posts: 6663
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 4:21 am

Re: How long do you think chess (8x8 board) will be solved by engines?

Post by swami »

There will be a tendency to close the case as it being fully solved, without any satisfactory evidence. A media attention, and cloud of confusion followed by conflicting peer reviewed reports, is what I suspect will happen. It will not take 50 years or more. I believe such claims will start to happen in another decade, with more frequency. Truth is stranger and we may never have convincing answers.

There will be a blurred line between win/draw. As long as the game always ends in a draw, the result is considered satisfactory enough to claim that the game is fully solved.

More interesting question, would therefore be, will that impact human chess competition in case chess gets resolved, or rather, the claims of having been solved? Will there be less turn outs, and lack of interest to choose this game for participation in tournaments?
swami
Posts: 6663
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 4:21 am

Re: How long do you think chess (8x8 board) will be solved by engines?

Post by swami »

In "static" positions, the values/score for various moves are so close that it's difficult to distinguish with convinction that one is better than the other. Sometimes engine changes its evaluation and chooses another line.
So, as long the result is known which is a draw, it doesn't matter which move is the best response in a given position? There was a quote by GM of the past, that there is no "only move" in chess, and that there are dozen alternatives and distinction between them is obscure, meaning no one can say with convinction that a choice is most optimal. All we get is some arbitrary evaluation scores assigned for various moves , +0.09, +0.11 +0.12 until N.
User avatar
towforce
Posts: 12699
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:57 am
Location: Birmingham UK
Full name: Graham Laight

Re: How long do you think chess (8x8 board) will be solved by engines?

Post by towforce »

According to this calculator - link - when both players have a rating of 4285, 999 out of every 100 games will be drawn.

However, I don't trust this calculator: imo there should be an elo level above which the opponent almost never wins. At this level, one should not be able to enter a higher elo score for the opponent.
Human chess is partly about tactics and strategy, but mostly about memory