bob wrote:my only comment here is that this is likely going to run afoul of the "birthday paradox" frequently. Given enough programs. A new program will frequently choose the same moves as another program, "just because". The more samples, the greater the probability this will happen. Lots of false positives are not going to help a thing...
In order to have a false positive you need context. All this utility does is counts how many moves (out of approx 8000) that 2 programs play in common and returns the percentage. How can that be a false positive? It will be whatever it will be for any two programs.
I continue to get comments over and over again from people who are assuming context which betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what this tool does and how it works.
If you view this utility as a "clone tester", and you assign some arbitrary percentage value to signify that a program is a "clone", then you can have false positives. But that is not what this utility does and it's not what it's for.
For example: When I tested Robbolito and Houdini, I got a ridiculously high match rate, higher than most other pairs of programs and in many cases much higher than the match rate between two versions of the SAME chess program!
So is that a false positive? No, it's just a fact. The two program play a lot of moves the same. It does not mean Robbolito is a clone of Houdini or a derivative or anything else, it just means they both play the same move a lot more than almost any other program.
My intent for the tool was as a diagnostic aid and a tool to examine the playing styles of programs. It returns some result and it's up to you to figure out what it means or doesn't mean and to use good sense and judgement, an increasingly rare commodity these days.
I actually got the idea for this from YOU and John Stanback. I was at a tournament where a version of Crafty was claimed to be heavily modified in the evaluation and was allowed in the tournament. However this program was doing unusually well and Vincent suspected something and you were contacted and consulted. From what I was told, you checked the moves of the game against Crafty and felt too many were the same.
John Stanback in another tournament noticed the same thing simply by watching the tournament games on line and comparing the moves to his own program.
I think every good chess player who gets really familiar with chess program agree's that each program has it's own individual personality. Of course that can only be revealed through the moves it makes.
I understand what you are saying about the birthday paradox and agree, I just think it's not relevant without assuming the context of "clone testing." However, if you tested 1000 unique program by different authors who did not share ideas, etc. you would surely find 2 programs that played very similar chess. The fact that they might play very similar is not a paradox or a lie, it's just how it is.