Laskos wrote:lucasart wrote:Peter Berger wrote:
Simplified claim: Opening books are pretty useless these days. E.g. Stockfish don't need no book at slow time controls.
I almost agree with you. However, to measure the book effect per se, one needs to depollute the measure from the time biais.
...
Generally, the larger the book, the crappier it is.
These are complete misconceptions of both of you. Are those your opinions? Do you have at least some empirical data? Two weeks ago I played 30 games at 40'/game on pretty strong hardware, the result was +5 =25 -0 for the Stockfish with a good, large book against Stockfish no book. I am curious what miracles would happen at 3 times longer TC like 120'/game? 2 plies deeper the engine realizes it constantly blunders many openings?
A typical win for book Stockfish:
[Event "40min 4cores"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "2015.03.07"]
[Round "7.1"]
[White "Stockfish 020315 64 BMI2 Book"]
[Black "Stockfish 020315 64 BMI2"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "C11"]
[Annotator "0.00;0.23"]
[PlyCount "163"]
[EventDate "2015.03.07"]
[EventType "tourn"]
[Source "Kai"]
[TimeControl "2400"]
{Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-4790 CPU @ 3.60GHz 3598 MHz W=36.7 plies; 8,989kN/s; PlaychessNightmare.ctg B=34.0 plies; 8,035kN/s}
1. e4 {B 0} e6 {0.23/28 64} 2. d4 {B 0} d5 {0.15/30 49} 3. Nc3 {B 0} Nf6 {0.12/29 40} 4. e5 {B 0} Nfd7 {0.09/31 42} 5. f4 {B 0} c5 {0.02/31 46} 6. Nf3 {B 0} Nc6 {0.00/30 36} 7. Be3 {B 0} Qb6 {0.00/32 26} 8. Na4 {B 0} Qa5+ {0.00/33 23} 9. Nc3 {B 0} Qb6 {0.00/36 31} 10. Na4 {B 0} Qa5+ {0.00/41 34} 11. c3 {B 0} cxd4 {0.00/32 38} 12. b4 {B 0} Nxb4 {0.00/33 23} 13. cxb4 {B 0} Bxb4+ {0.39/30 42} 14. Bd2 {B 0} Bxd2+ {0.32/31 43} 15. Nxd2 {B 0} b6 {0.29/34 41} 16. Bd3 {B 0} Ba6 {0.36/33 59} 17. Nb2 {B 0} Nc5 {0.53/33 41} 18. Bxa6 {B 0} Qxa6 {0.55/32 68} 19. Qe2 {B 0} Rc8 {0.57/32 34} 20. Qxa6 {B 0} Nxa6 {0.50/32 38} 21. Rb1 {B 0} O-O {0.58/33 90} 22. Nf3 {0.65/35 55} Nb4 {0.65/34 37}
...
1-0
At moves 6 to 12, the non-book Stockfish thinks it gained ground as black, giving 0.00 eval. While at move 22, exiting the book, it admits it blundered the opening, giving 0.65 to book Stockfish, which just exited the book. In 4 of the 5 wins of book Stockfish, the games went on these lines. Then, there are exiting positions which Stockfish considers equal (close to 0.00) while not being so, usually according to outcome statistics. The burden to prove your naive, misleading statements and LTC miracles (2 plies deeper) is entirely on you. I claim that maybe 5-10 years are needed for top engines to play openings reasonably and not need books. It's not about 2 plies more of the same Stockfish, your miraculous LTC. It's about 20+ plies more, horizon, lack of outcome predictability, unreliability of PV in the openings.
I think cxd4 was a mistake.
I believe that with a good hardware stockfish can find c4
please check it
[d]r1b1kb1r/pp1n1ppp/2n1p3/q1ppP3/N2P1P2/2P1BN2/PP4PP/R2QKB1R b KQkq - 0 9
I replaced 9.Nc3 by 9.c3 because the following line did not change the position.
9. Nc3 {B 0} Qb6 {0.00/36 31} 10. Na4 {B 0} Qa5+ {0.00/41 34}
Here is the analysis
[d]r1b1kb1r/pp1n1ppp/2n1p3/q1ppP3/N2P1P2/2P1BN2/PP4PP/R2QKB1R b KQkq - 0 9
Stockfish_15031821_x64:
1/1 00:00 53 17,666 +0.08 c5xd4 Be3xd4 b7-b5
2/2 00:00 97 32,333 +0.08 c5xd4 Be3xd4
3/3 00:00 229 76,333 -0.17 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2
4/4 00:00 371 123,666 +0.10 c5xd4 Nf3xd4 Nc6xd4 Be3xd4 b7-b5
5/5 00:00 504 168,000 +0.10 c5xd4 Nf3xd4 Nc6xd4 Be3xd4 b7-b5
6/8 00:00 1,058 264,500 +0.10 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O
7/9 00:00 1,472 368,000 +0.17 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b5
8/10 00:00 2,046 409,200 +0.17 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b5 Na4-b2
9/11 00:00 2,846 569,200 +0.17 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b5 Na4-b2 O-O
10/15 00:00 4,993 713,285 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b5 Na4-b2 O-O Bf1-d3
11/16 00:00 7,247 905,875 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b5 Na4-b2 O-O Bf1-d3 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2
12/20 00:00 25,775 1,356,578 -0.10 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 g7-g5 g2-g3 g5xf4 g3xf4 b7-b6 Ra1-b1 Bc8-a6 Bf1xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3
13/23 00:00 60,879 1,691,083 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2 Qc3xc2 Bd3xc2
14/23 00:00 97,204 1,834,037 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2 Qc3xc2 Bd3xc2 Nb6-c4 Nb2xc4 b5xc4
15/25 00:00 174,287 1,980,534 +0.06 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2 Qc3xc2 Bd3xc2 Nb6-c4
16/25 00:00 248,960 2,127,863 +0.18 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Ra1-b1 f7-f6 e5xf6 Nd7xf6 Bf1-d3 Nf6-e4 Bd3xe4 d5xe4 O-O Bc8-d7 Nd2xe4 Qa5xa4 Rb1xb7
17/26 00:00 455,987 2,268,592 +0.34 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Ra1-b1 f7-f6 e5xf6 Nd7xf6 Bf1-d3 Bc8-d7 Na4-b2 Nf6-e4 Bd3xe4 d5xe4 O-O Qa5-d5 Nd2-b3 d4-d3 Qd1-d2 Rf8-c8
18/29 00:00 1,002,410 2,415,445 +0.43 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Ra1-c1 b7-b6 Qd1-b3 Bc8-a6 Bf1xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3 Qa6-a5+ Ke1-f2 f7-f6 e5xf6 Nd7xf6 g2-g3 Nf6-g4+ Kf2-g1 Ra8-c8 Rc1xc8 Rf8xc8
19/30 00:00 1,756,737 2,406,489 +0.55 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 Qd1-c2 Bc8-a6 a2-a4 Rf8-c8 Qc2-d1 Qa5-c3 a4xb5 Ba6-b7 Ra1-a2 Nb6-c4 Bd3xc4 d5xc4 O-O Qc3-e3+ Kg1-h1
20/33 00:01 2,486,175 2,435,039 +0.55 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2 Qc3xc2 Bd3xc2 Nb6-c4 Nb2xc4 b5xc4 Bc2-a4 c4-c3 Nd2-b3 d4-d3 Nb3-c5 d3-d2
21/33 00:01 3,008,753 2,438,211 +0.47 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Bf1-d3 b7-b5 Na4-b2 Nd7-b6 O-O Qa5-c3 Qd1-c2 Qc3xc2 Bd3xc2 Nb6-c4 Nb2xc4 b5xc4 Bc2-a4 c4-c3 Nd2-b3 d4-d3 Nb3-c5
22/33 00:02 5,982,659 2,471,152 +0.43 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Rf8xf4 Rf1xf4 e5xf4 Nd2-f3 e6-e5 Bh7-f5 d4-d3 Bf5xd3 e5-e4 Bd3xe4 d5xe4 Qc2xe4
23/35+ 00:03 7,432,321 2,462,664 +0.36 c5xd4
23/37 00:03 7,683,302 2,461,807 +0.35 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Nd7-f6 Bh7-g6 e5-e4 Qc2-c5 Qa5xc5 Na4xc5 b7-b6 Nc5-b3 d4-d3 Rf1-e1 Bc8-d7 Ra1-c1 Ra8-c8 Nb3-d4 Nf6-g4 Rc1xc8 Rf8xc8 Nd2-b3
24/39- 00:03 9,343,513 2,485,637 +0.29 c5xd4 b2-b4
24/39 00:04 10,525,068 2,497,643 +0.26 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Nd7-f6 Bh7-g6 e5-e4 Qc2-c5 Qa5xc5 Na4xc5 b7-b6 Nc5-b3 d4-d3 Rf1-e1 Bc8-d7 h2-h3 Ra8-c8 Nb3-d4 Rc8-c3 g2-g4
25/39+ 00:04 12,195,613 2,506,806 +0.32 c5xd4
25/39 00:05 13,678,449 2,501,545 +0.32 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Nd7-f6 Bh7-g6 e5-e4 Na4-c5 Qa5-c3 Ra1-c1 b7-b6 Qc2xc3 d4xc3 Nd2xe4 d5xe4 Nc5xe4 Nf6-d5 Ne4xc3 Nd5xf4
26/39 00:07 18,106,779 2,500,590 +0.35 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Nd7-f6 Bh7-g6 e5-e4 Qc2-c5 Qa5xc5 Na4xc5 b7-b6 Nc5-b3 d4-d3 Rf1-e1 Bc8-d7 h2-h3 Bd7-e8 Bg6xe8 Ra8xe8 Ra1-c1 Nf6-h5 Rc1-c7 Nh5xf4
27/42- 00:09 23,675,840 2,521,925 +0.29 c5xd4 b2-b4
27/42 00:11 28,168,104 2,507,844 +0.25 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 O-O Qd1-c2 f7-f6 Bf1-d3 f6xe5 Bd3xh7+ Kg8-h8 O-O Nd7-f6 Bh7-g6 e5-e4 Qc2-c5 Qa5xc5 Na4xc5 b7-b6 Nc5-b3 d4-d3 Rf1-e1 Bc8-d7 Nb3-d4 Nf6-g4 h2-h3 e6-e5 Nd4-b3 Rf8-f6 Bg6xe4 d5xe4 h3xg4
28/42- 00:14 36,510,002 2,521,931 +0.18 c5xd4 b2-b4
28/42- 00:16 41,603,393 2,522,334 +0.12 c5xd4 b2-b4
28/42- 00:19 48,898,681 2,518,084 +0.03 c5xd4 b2-b4
28/42+ 00:20 51,178,593 2,517,764 +0.11 c5xd4
28/42- 00:22 56,375,520 2,526,917 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4
28/48 00:32 83,947,181 2,562,021 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b6 Bf1-d3 Bc8-a6 Bd3xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3 Nd7-c5 Na4xc5 b6xc5 Qd1-c2 O-O Ke1-f2 Qa6-a3 Qc2-b3 Qa3-a6 Qb3-c2
29/48 00:38 99,136,262 2,570,028 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b6 Bf1-d3 Bc8-a6 Bd3xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3 Nd7-c5 Na4xc5 b6xc5 Qd1-c2 O-O Ke1-f2 Qa6-a3 Qc2-b3 Qa3-a6 Qb3-c2
30/48 00:51 134,782,614 2,605,602 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b6 Bf1-d3 Bc8-a6 Bd3xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3 O-O Nf3xd4 Ra8-c8 Na4-b2 Nd7-c5 Qd1-e2 Qa6-a5+ Qe2-d2 Qa5-a6 Qd2-e2
31/48 01:03 166,362,192 2,616,086 0.00 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b6 Bf1-d3 Bc8-a6 Bd3xa6 Qa5xa6 Nd2-f3 O-O Nf3xd4 Ra8-c8 Na4-b2 Nd7-c5 Qd1-e2 Qa6-a5+ Qe2-d2 Qa5-a6 Qd2-e2
32/48- 01:28 227,026,180 2,571,718 -0.06 c5xd4 b2-b4
32/48- 01:52 280,613,194 2,490,752 -0.12 c5xd4 b2-b4
32/48- 02:21 349,600,614 2,473,612 -0.21 c5xd4 b2-b4
32/48+ 02:28 369,402,211 2,481,974 -0.13 c5xd4
32/48- 03:04 451,775,764 2,449,950 -0.24 c5xd4 b2-b4
32/49 03:13 474,445,252 2,452,673 -0.24 c5xd4 b2-b4 Nc6xb4 c3xb4 Bf8xb4+ Be3-d2 Bb4xd2+ Nf3xd2 b7-b6 Bf1-d3 Nd7-c5 Na4xc5 b6xc5 O-O Bc8-d7 Ra1-b1 Ra8-c8 Rb1-b7 Bd7-c6 Nd2-b3 Qa5xa2 Nb3xc5 Bc6xb7 Nc5xb7 O-O f4-f5 e6xf5 Nb7-d6 Rc8-c6 Nd6xf5 Qa2-a3 Nf5xd4 Qa3-c5 Qd1-a1 Rc6-c7 g2-g3 Rf8-b8 Kg1-g2 g7-g6 h2-h4
33/49 10:04 1,337,236,054 2,213,831 -0.25 c5-c4 b2-b4 Qa5-c7 g2-g3 Nc6-e7 Be3-d2 Qc7-c6 Ra1-b1 g7-g6 Bf1-g2 b7-b6 O-O h7-h5 b4-b5 Qc6-c7 Na4-b2 Ne7-f5 Qd1-c2 a7-a6 a2-a4 Bf8-e7 Nb2-d1 Bc8-b7 Nd1-e3 h5-h4 Ne3xf5 g6xf5 g3xh4 a6xb5 a4xb5 Be7xh4 Nf3xh4 Rh8xh4 Bd2-e1 Rh4-g4 Be1-g3