Elo is exponential, not linear.Matthias Gemuh wrote:Robert Weck wrote:if twice as strong means winning 99.999%, how much is 4, 10, 20 times as strong?...Terry McCracken wrote: Win 99.999% of the time, virtually unbeatable, even draws will almost never ever happen. Also, most games are over before move 20! Twice as Strong!![]()
Robert
twice as strong means one is 3000 elo strong, the other is 6000 elo strong.
20x as strong means one is 3000 elo strong, the other is 60000 elo strong.
Matthias.
Code: Select all
Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 -- In one hundred games, expect either side to get about 50 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.36 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 36 points and the stronger side 64 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.24 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 24 points and the stronger side 76 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 15 points and the stronger side 85 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.09 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 9 points and the stronger side 91 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.05 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 5 points and the stronger side 95 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.03 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 3 points and the stronger side 97 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.02 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 2 points and the stronger side 98 points.
Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.01 -- In one hundred games, expect the weaker side to get about 1 point and the stronger side 99 points.