The FREEWARE Group Championship Matches Have Begun

[geots]

[Ajedrecista]

Hello George:

If I understood well, you plan a 12-game match. Here is the info I got from CCRL 40/40:

Code: Select all

       Murka 2.0 (2448); 25.1% of draws.
Typhoon 1.00-348 (2439); 27.8% of draws.

From Typhoon POV, it has -9 Elo with respect to Murka. I will suppose a probability of draws of (25.1% + 27.8%)/2 = 26.45%:

Code: Select all

Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution, ® 2013.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Probabilities of all possible scores in a match between two engines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Write down the number of games of the match (up to 50):

12

Write down the engines rating difference (between -800 Elo and 800 Elo):

-9

Probability of a draw (%) between 0 % and  97.41 %

26.45

Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:

3

The results have been saved to Probabilities.txt file.

End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time:   50 ms.

Thanks for using Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution. Press Enter to exit.

Code: Select all

Probabilities for a match of 12 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
 
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo):   -9.00 Elo.
 
Probability of a win  = W ~  35.4801 %
Probability of a draw = D ~  26.4500 %
Probability of a lose = L ~  38.0699 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points: 12.0/12
 
+12 = 0 - 0
P ~   0.0004 %
 
Probability of win 12.0 points out of 12:   0.0004 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points: 11.5/12
 
+11 = 1 - 0
P ~   0.0036 %
 
Probability of win 11.5 points out of 12:   0.0036 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points: 11.0/12
 
+10 = 2 - 0
P ~   0.0146 %
 
+11 = 0 - 1
P ~   0.0051 %
 
Probability of win 11.0 points out of 12:   0.0197 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points: 10.5/12
 
+ 9 = 3 - 0
P ~   0.0363 %
 
+10 = 1 - 1
P ~   0.0420 %
 
Probability of win 10.5 points out of 12:   0.0783 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points: 10.0/12
 
+ 8 = 4 - 0
P ~   0.0608 %
 
+ 9 = 2 - 1
P ~   0.1566 %
 
+10 = 0 - 2
P ~   0.0302 %
 
Probability of win 10.0 points out of 12:   0.2477 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  9.5/12
 
+ 7 = 5 - 0
P ~   0.0726 %
 
+ 8 = 3 - 1
P ~   0.3503 %
 
+ 9 = 1 - 2
P ~   0.2254 %
 
Probability of win  9.5 points out of 12:   0.6483 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  9.0/12
 
+ 6 = 6 - 0
P ~   0.0631 %
 
+ 7 = 4 - 1
P ~   0.5222 %
 
+ 8 = 2 - 2
P ~   0.7562 %
 
+ 9 = 0 - 3
P ~   0.1082 %
 
Probability of win  9.0 points out of 12:   1.4497 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  8.5/12
 
+ 5 = 7 - 0
P ~   0.0403 %
 
+ 6 = 5 - 1
P ~   0.5451 %
 
+ 7 = 3 - 2
P ~   1.5033 %
 
+ 8 = 1 - 3
P ~   0.7256 %
 
Probability of win  8.5 points out of 12:   2.8144 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  8.0/12
 
+ 4 = 8 - 0
P ~   0.0188 %
 
+ 5 = 6 - 1
P ~   0.4063 %
 
+ 6 = 4 - 2
P ~   1.9613 %
 
+ 7 = 2 - 3
P ~   2.1638 %
 
+ 8 = 0 - 4
P ~   0.2611 %
 
Probability of win  8.0 points out of 12:   4.8113 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  7.5/12
 
+ 3 = 9 - 0
P ~   0.0062 %
 
+ 4 = 7 - 1
P ~   0.2164 %
 
+ 5 = 5 - 2
P ~   1.7545 %
 
+ 6 = 3 - 3
P ~   3.7639 %
 
+ 7 = 1 - 4
P ~   1.5572 %
 
Probability of win  7.5 points out of 12:   7.2982 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  7.0/12
 
+ 2 =10 - 0
P ~   0.0014 %
 
+ 3 = 8 - 1
P ~   0.0807 %
 
+ 4 = 6 - 2
P ~   1.0900 %
 
+ 5 = 4 - 3
P ~   4.2089 %
 
+ 6 = 2 - 4
P ~   4.0630 %
 
+ 7 = 0 - 5
P ~   0.4483 %
 
Probability of win  7.0 points out of 12:   9.8922 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  6.5/12
 
+ 1 =11 - 0
P ~   0.0002 %
 
+ 2 = 9 - 1
P ~   0.0200 %
 
+ 3 = 7 - 2
P ~   0.4643 %
 
+ 4 = 5 - 3
P ~   3.1377 %
 
+ 5 = 3 - 4
P ~   6.0579 %
 
+ 6 = 1 - 5
P ~   2.3392 %
 
Probability of win  6.5 points out of 12:  12.0193 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  6.0/12
 
+ 0 =12 - 0
P ~   0.0000 %
 
+ 1 =10 - 1
P ~   0.0030 %
 
+ 2 = 8 - 2
P ~   0.1298 %
 
+ 3 = 6 - 3
P ~   1.5594 %
 
+ 4 = 4 - 4
P ~   5.6451 %
 
+ 5 = 2 - 5
P ~   5.2315 %
 
+ 6 = 0 - 6
P ~   0.5611 %
 
Probability of win  6.0 points out of 12:  13.1300 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  5.5/12
 
+ 0 =11 - 1
P ~   0.0002 %
 
+ 1 = 9 - 2
P ~   0.0215 %
 
+ 2 = 7 - 3
P ~   0.4982 %
 
+ 3 = 5 - 4
P ~   3.3667 %
 
+ 4 = 3 - 5
P ~   6.5001 %
 
+ 5 = 1 - 6
P ~   2.5099 %
 
Probability of win  5.5 points out of 12:  12.8966 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  5.0/12
 
+ 0 =10 - 2
P ~   0.0016 %
 
+ 1 = 8 - 3
P ~   0.0929 %
 
+ 2 = 6 - 4
P ~   1.2549 %
 
+ 3 = 4 - 5
P ~   4.8457 %
 
+ 4 = 2 - 6
P ~   4.6778 %
 
+ 5 = 0 - 7
P ~   0.5161 %
 
Probability of win  5.0 points out of 12:  11.3890 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  4.5/12
 
+ 0 = 9 - 3
P ~   0.0077 %
 
+ 1 = 7 - 4
P ~   0.2673 %
 
+ 2 = 5 - 5
P ~   2.1675 %
 
+ 3 = 3 - 6
P ~   4.6497 %
 
+ 4 = 1 - 7
P ~   1.9237 %
 
Probability of win  4.5 points out of 12:   9.0158 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  4.0/12
 
+ 0 = 8 - 4
P ~   0.0249 %
 
+ 1 = 6 - 5
P ~   0.5386 %
 
+ 2 = 4 - 6
P ~   2.5997 %
 
+ 3 = 2 - 7
P ~   2.8682 %
 
+ 4 = 0 - 8
P ~   0.3461 %
 
Probability of win  4.0 points out of 12:   6.3775 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  3.5/12
 
+ 0 = 7 - 5
P ~   0.0574 %
 
+ 1 = 5 - 6
P ~   0.7752 %
 
+ 2 = 3 - 7
P ~   2.1382 %
 
+ 3 = 1 - 8
P ~   1.0320 %
 
Probability of win  3.5 points out of 12:   4.0028 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  3.0/12
 
+ 0 = 6 - 6
P ~   0.0963 %
 
+ 1 = 4 - 7
P ~   0.7970 %
 
+ 2 = 2 - 8
P ~   1.1541 %
 
+ 3 = 0 - 9
P ~   0.1650 %
 
Probability of win  3.0 points out of 12:   2.2124 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  2.5/12
 
+ 0 = 5 - 7
P ~   0.1188 %
 
+ 1 = 3 - 8
P ~   0.5736 %
 
+ 2 = 1 - 9
P ~   0.3691 %
 
Probability of win  2.5 points out of 12:   1.0615 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  2.0/12
 
+ 0 = 4 - 8
P ~   0.1069 %
 
+ 1 = 2 - 9
P ~   0.2752 %
 
+ 2 = 0 -10
P ~   0.0531 %
 
Probability of win  2.0 points out of 12:   0.4352 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  1.5/12
 
+ 0 = 3 - 9
P ~   0.0684 %
 
+ 1 = 1 -10
P ~   0.0792 %
 
Probability of win  1.5 points out of 12:   0.1476 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  1.0/12
 
+ 0 = 2 -10
P ~   0.0295 %
 
+ 1 = 0 -11
P ~   0.0104 %
 
Probability of win  1.0 points out of 12:   0.0399 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  0.5/12
 
+ 0 = 1 -11
P ~   0.0077 %
 
Probability of win  0.5 points out of 12:   0.0077 %
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Points:  0.0/12
 
+ 0 = 0 -12
P ~   0.0009 %
 
Probability of win  0.0 points out of 12:   0.0009 %

The probability of another tie (6 - 6) is more less 13.13% if my programme is right. So, the probability of a non-tie match is around 100% - 13.13% = 86.87%. Good luck!

I can release this tool if necessary.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[tpetzke]

Hi Georg,

Thanks a lot. Very interesting tournament and so far I had not that many opportunities to celebrate a first place yet. I really enjoy it.

Thanks again.

Thomas...

[geots]

I think I understand you here. To use an analogy, if I take a pair of dice and roll "7" 10 times in a row- it has nothing to do with the next roll. The prob. of rolling "7" would be the same on the 11th try as it was on the 1st try. There is no "law of averages" -the dice don't have a memory. Same with these matches. "Draw" is basically the same prob. as it was in the first match.


Best,

george

[geots]

Hi Georg,

Thanks a lot. Very interesting tournament and so far I had not that many opportunities to celebrate a first place yet. I really enjoy it.

Thanks again.

Thomas...

I am glad you enjoyed it, and you can be sure "iCE" played superbly. He earned every bit of it- a true champion.


Best,

george

[geots]

24-game match drawn, 12-game match drawn, 6-game match drawn......... and then we have this 12-game "triple playoff" match, which was not the down-to-the-wire thriller some may have expected. So finally we have a champion to crown in Group 8.

Before the results, I will admit that my technical knowledge of any programming or compiling is dead center between zero and absolutely nothing. Still, I do not understand how on 1 core Typhoon could average around 560 kN/s, Murka averages over 6,000 kN/s- yet Murka thinks to NO DEEPER ply depths than Typhoon. I mean, what's the point of the 5640 kN/s difference? It just seems to be a waste of speed.
Oh well...................





Inspiron 620 Intel i5 (SP8)-4 True Cores [40/21]
XPS 8500 Intel i5-4 True Cores [40/19]

Fritz 11 gui/Fritz 13 gui
1CPU/64-bit where available
128MB hash
Bases=NONE
Ponder_Learning=OFF
Perfect 2012b.ctg w/12-move limit
40/21 Repeating OR
40/19 Repeating (Benched to adapt to 40/40)
24-Game Matches

Code: Select all

Group 8 SP8-Core-i5  2013

                   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
Typhoon 1.00-348   0 0 1 1 1 1 1 ½ 0 1 1 ½    8.0/12
Murka 2 x64 UCI    1 1 0 0 0 0 0 ½ 1 0 0 ½    4.0/12

Well, it was truly a LONG fought battle. But we can finally say:

Group 8 Champion- Typhoon 1.00-348 and congratulations to Scott. He has a true winner.

I would be remiss here if I did not also congratulate Igor and Murka- absolutely nothing for them to be ashamed of.


Next we will begin the matches for Groups 3, 4, 5 and 6. They may begin shortly, but more likely it will be sometime later today. I think I may need a short break.



Until then-

george

[geots]

After 54 games between Typhoon and Murka, 4 more groups have now begun championship matches:


Group 6
-------
1.Rodin 5.1
2.Anaconda 2.0.1

Group 5
-------
1.cheng3 1.07 64-bit
2.Petir 4.39

Group 4
-------
1.Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64
2.ProDeo 1.8.1

Group 3
-------
1.bright 0.5c
2.Naraku 1.4



Hopefully some updates later today-

george

[geots]

The 2 matches running on the Inspiron Intel i5 are going much slower than the 2 that are running on the XPS i5. For one thing, the time control is slightly faster, but mainly the scores are much closer with more long drawn games.



Group 6
-------
1.Rodin 5.1----------5
2.Anaconda 2.0.1---4

Group 5
-------
1.Petir 4.39--------------10
2.cheng3 1.07 64-bit----7

Group 4
-------
1.ProDeo 1.8.1----------------------10
2.Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64----6

Group 3
-------
1.bright 0.5c---6
2.Naraku 1.4---6



Some good match-ups here-

george

[Ajedrecista]

Hi George!

The 2 matches running on the Inspiron Intel i5 are going much slower than the 2 that are running on the XPS i5. For one thing, the time control is slightly faster, but mainly the scores are much closer with more long drawn games.



Group 6
-------
1.Rodin 5.1----------5
2.Anaconda 2.0.1---4

Group 5
-------
1.Petir 4.39--------------10
2.cheng3 1.07 64-bit----7

Group 4
-------
1.ProDeo 1.8.1----------------------10
2.Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64----6

Group 3
-------
1.bright 0.5c---6
2.Naraku 1.4---6



Some good match-ups here-

george

Thanks for the update. I took a look on CCRL 40/40 list:

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     Rodin 5.1 (2554); 28.6 % of draws.
Anaconda 2.0.1 (2557); 35.2 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

 Petir 4.39 (2597); 37.3 % of draws.
cheng3 1.07 (2626); 30.5 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

            ProDeo 1.81 (2700); 37.7 % of draws.
Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 (2667); 37.2 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

bright 0.5c (2784); 41.3 % of draws.
 Naraku 1.4 (2772); 24.4 % of draws.

I am surprised that cheng3 1.07 w32 has a rating of 2644 while cheng3 1.07 x64 has a rating of 2626... I know that they have a low number of games. I am also surprised about the low draw ratio of Naraku 1.4 (only 24.4%!).

I use my programme Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution with the average draw ratio of each group as the probability of a draw for a single game in each group:

Code: Select all

Group 6: D = 31.9 %.
Group 5: D = 33.9 %.
Group 4: D = 37.45 %.
Group 3: D = 32.85 %.

Four output files will be very long for a single post, so I will summarize them (I hope no typos). I calculate probabilities for 24 - (current number of games), then see if there is a tie (12 - 12, including the results of the update) or whatever programme wins, taking into account their rating differences on CCRL 40/40 and the probability of a draw that I choosed before:

Code: Select all

GROUP 6:
--------

1.- Rodin 5.1 ---------- 5 
2.- Anaconda 2.0.1 ----- 4

    Prob.(Rodin wins the 24-game match) ~ 54.5464 %.
                     Prob. (tied match) ~ 11.9031 %.
Prob. (Anaconda wins the 24-game match) ~ 33.5506 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 5: 
--------

1.- Petir 4.39 ------------- 10 
2.- cheng3 1.07 64-bit -----  7

  Prob.(Petir wins the 24-game match) ~ 81.1434 %.
                   Prob. (tied match) ~ 10.3177 %.
Prob. (cheng3 wins the 24-game match) ~  8.5390 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 4:
--------

1.- ProDeo 1.8.1 -------------------- 10 
2.- Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64 -----  6

    Prob.(ProDeo wins the 24-game match) ~ 97.2272 %.
                      Prob. (tied match) ~  1.9273 %.
Prob. (Deuterium wins the 24-game match) ~  0.8455 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 3:
--------

1.- bright 0.5c ----- 6 
2.- Naraku 1.4 ------ 6

 Prob.(bright wins the 24-game match) ~ 48.9321 %.
                   Prob. (tied match) ~ 13.6895 %.
Prob. (Naraku wins the 24-game match) ~ 37.3784 %.

If you sum all the probabilities in each group, you will get the correct 100% in groups 3 and 4 while the incorrect 100.0001% in the other groups: it is due to rounding.

It seems that Petir and specially ProDeo have done their job...

Let us wait and see the final results of these four 24-game matches! Thank you very much for your effort.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[geots]

Hi George!

The 2 matches running on the Inspiron Intel i5 are going much slower than the 2 that are running on the XPS i5. For one thing, the time control is slightly faster, but mainly the scores are much closer with more long drawn games.



Group 6
-------
1.Rodin 5.1----------5
2.Anaconda 2.0.1---4

Group 5
-------
1.Petir 4.39--------------10
2.cheng3 1.07 64-bit----7

Group 4
-------
1.ProDeo 1.8.1----------------------10
2.Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64----6

Group 3
-------
1.bright 0.5c---6
2.Naraku 1.4---6



Some good match-ups here-

george

Thanks for the update. I took a look on CCRL 40/40 list:

Code: Select all

     Rodin 5.1 (2554); 28.6 % of draws.
Anaconda 2.0.1 (2557); 35.2 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

 Petir 4.39 (2597); 37.3 % of draws.
cheng3 1.07 (2626); 30.5 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

            ProDeo 1.81 (2700); 37.7 % of draws.
Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 (2667); 37.2 % of draws.

------------------------------------------------

bright 0.5c (2784); 41.3 % of draws.
 Naraku 1.4 (2772); 24.4 % of draws.

I am surprised that cheng3 1.07 w32 has a rating of 2644 while cheng3 1.07 x64 has a rating of 2626... I know that they have a low number of games. I am also surprised about the low draw ratio of Naraku 1.4 (only 24.4%!).

I use my programme Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution with the average draw ratio of each group as the probability of a draw for a single game in each group:

Code: Select all

Group 6: D = 31.9 %.
Group 5: D = 33.9 %.
Group 4: D = 37.45 %.
Group 3: D = 32.85 %.

Four output files will be very long for a single post, so I will summarize them (I hope no typos). I calculate probabilities for 24 - (current number of games), then see if there is a tie (12 - 12, including the results of the update) or whatever programme wins, taking into account their rating differences on CCRL 40/40 and the probability of a draw that I choosed before:

Code: Select all

GROUP 6:
--------

1.- Rodin 5.1 ---------- 5 
2.- Anaconda 2.0.1 ----- 4

    Prob.(Rodin wins the 24-game match) ~ 54.5464 %.
                     Prob. (tied match) ~ 11.9031 %.
Prob. (Anaconda wins the 24-game match) ~ 33.5506 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 5: 
--------

1.- Petir 4.39 ------------- 10 
2.- cheng3 1.07 64-bit -----  7

  Prob.(Petir wins the 24-game match) ~ 81.1434 %.
                   Prob. (tied match) ~ 10.3177 %.
Prob. (cheng3 wins the 24-game match) ~  8.5390 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 4:
--------

1.- ProDeo 1.8.1 -------------------- 10 
2.- Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64 -----  6

    Prob.(ProDeo wins the 24-game match) ~ 97.2272 %.
                      Prob. (tied match) ~  1.9273 %.
Prob. (Deuterium wins the 24-game match) ~  0.8455 %.

-----------------------------------------------------

GROUP 3:
--------

1.- bright 0.5c ----- 6 
2.- Naraku 1.4 ------ 6

 Prob.(bright wins the 24-game match) ~ 48.9321 %.
                   Prob. (tied match) ~ 13.6895 %.
Prob. (Naraku wins the 24-game match) ~ 37.3784 %.

If you sum all the probabilities in each group, you will get the correct 100% in groups 3 and 4 while the incorrect 100.0001% in the other groups: it is due to rounding.

It seems that Petir and specially ProDeo have done their job...

Let us wait and see the final results of these four 24-game matches! Thank you very much for your effort.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

And thank you for your help and interest, Jesus. It is 7:00am here in the states, and 2 of the 4 matches have finished. I have been up all night working with Jim Ablett on a project, and I am heading to get some sleep. When I wake, and take care of a few things, the other 2 will be finished. I will post results tonight from all 4 of them.



Always best to you,

george