Hood wrote:Not only inherited system is valid but people executing it.
Every human is different entity. Has different motivations, system of values etc.
Statistics is not a method to evaluate human behaviour.
I think Ivanov avoided the test not to meet secret services and choose other strategy to sue Chessbase and Lilov , he has chances to win vs unfounded allegations.
Returning to the camel case:
How would you defend yourself when someone call you a camel?
I think it is very easy to prepare the test proving that you are a camel.
You cannot know if the allegation is unfounded. It's unfounded it's not true, but if it's true then it's not.
So why are you saying it's unfounded? Do you already know the outcome?
You can make an assertion that I am a camel. That is called an allegation. Since there really is no basic in fact it is a completely groundless assertion - it would be what you are calling an "unfounded allegation."
In the case of Ivanov there is pretty overwhelming evidence that he is cheating. We could bicker about how overwhelming that evidence is and there is plenty of room for disagreement among reasonable people, but your assertion that it "completely unfounded" is an extreme viewpoint. In fact even those who are being very cautious about this are saying things such as "I think he probably was cheating, but I don't think this is enough to impose a ban." That's a reasonable point of view - even if I don't agree with it it's certainly not a totally ridiculous thing to say.
On this forum and elsewhere there were people who said that that the accusations against Lance Armstrong were totally unfounded and in the process they tried to destroy the reputation of everyone who was saying he was guilty. His competitors were petty and jealous, the cycling organizations were corrupt and vindictive and things like this. Such people try to come across as caring people, looking out for the rights of poor accused victims but if they are really so much on the side of what is good and right then why do they go after people with such a harsh and cruel vengeance? Before accusing so many for the sake of the one, one wonders why they give no consideration whatsoever to the possibility that they are wrong. It's like they are proving they are frauds - they don't really care about people - only their own point of view.
BI was called a camel on the base of one feature similarity of his choices and some program choices.
This analogy and your logic is seriously broken and you cannot even understand why - so I'm not sure we can have a reasonable conversation. But let me try:
There are hundreds of animal species as well as humans who have 2 eyes. Having 2 eyes just doesn't constitute evidence of much of anything. You might as well say a needle has at least 1 eye and I have at least one eye so therefore I am a needle. Can't you see how broken that logic is?
What make a feature interesting enough to be considered evidence is if it is a feature that is so unusual or rare that it begs for an explanation. You say, "one feature similarity" to make it sound like it's hardly anything, it's "just one little thing" but that is in fact intellectually dishonest. First of all the terminology is deceptive - is it really just one thing? If all I have is DNA analysis of a rape, is that just one little thing that should be considered of no consequence? No, in fact that "one thing" is many things. SEVERAL things in the DNA must match for it to be considered an actual match. So is it one piece of evidence or many? You cannot quantify evidence that way. Is a fingerprint match just "one piece of evidence?" No, because several points have to match. It's not one little thing. One DNA match or One fingerprint match is generally considered overwhelming evidence that a person was at a location. It's not just "one" thing.
The move matching percentage isn't one little thing either - it is hundreds of moves played over many games. It's very similar to a DNA or fingerprint match. Not only that, we are considering a lot more factors than just the move match percentage. A 2200 player winning multiple tournaments at 2900 performance rating is more evidence for example. All together this provides more than enough for there to be a strong suspicion.
Unfounded just means "was not found to be true." And you obviously wasn't there, you don't know if it's true or not. I'm looking at this from the point of view of how strong the evidence is, whether it is strong enough to be considered empirical proof or not.
Here is how this should have been handled. People who came forward with accusations should have come forward with strong suspicions, not accusations. And those who disagree with the suspicions should not be so cruel as to assassinate the characters of many people, revealing that they don't really care about the feelings of others while pretending they do.
Capital punishment would be more effective as a preventive measure if it were administered prior to the crime.