Discussion of computer chess matches and engine tournaments.
Moderator: Ras
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:53 am
Matches for Groups 3, 4, 5 and 6 are completed and we have 4 new champions. At the time of the update earlier I really expected to see at least one drawn match- but it wasn't to be.
Inspiron 620 Intel i5 (SP8)-4 True Cores [40/21] XPS 8500 Intel i5-4 True Cores [40/19] Code: Select all
Group 6 SP8-Core-i5 2013
Anaconda 2.0.1 +58 +8/-4/=12 58.33% 14.0/24
Rodin 5.1 -58 +4/-8/=12 41.67% 10.0/24Code: Select all
Group 5 XPS-Core-i5 2013
Petir 4.39 +44 +11/-8/=5 56.25% 13.5/24
cheng3 1.07 JA 64-bit -44 +8/-11/=5 43.75% 10.5/24Code: Select all
Group 4 XPS-Core-i5 2013
ProDeo 1.8.1 +73 +10/-5/=9 60.42% 14.5/24
Deuterium 12.01.30.1070 x64 -73 +5/-10/=9 39.58% 9.5/24Code: Select all
Group 3 SP8-Core-i5 2013
Naraku 1.4 +29 +9/-7/=8 54.17% 13.0/24
bright-0.5c -29 +7/-9/=8 45.83% 11.0/24Group 3- Naraku 1.4
Congratulations to all eight of these engines- the four matches were smooth and well-played. But the special congrats go to the winners- they made it thru a lot of games and a lot of engines to get to this point. They are true champions in every sense of the word.
Next up- starting tonight- will be the Group 2 championship. It will be a 30-game match.
Pleasant dreams-
george
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:41 pm
Tonight the match for the Group 2 championship will begin. As I stated earlier, this will be a 30 game match. The opponents facing off: Hannibal 1.2 x64 Quazar 0.4 x64 I have been looking forward to this one for a while. Quazar surprised me in the RR coming in 2nd 1 game behind Hannibal. He is going to have to again play some good chess to compete with Hannibal. We shall see.
Ajedrecista
Posts: 2130Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:04 pmLocation: Madrid, Spain.
Post by Ajedrecista Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:19 pm
Hello George:
geots wrote: Tonight the match for the Group 2 championship will begin. As I stated earlier, this will be a 30 game match. The opponents facing off: Hannibal 1.2 x64 Quazar 0.4 x64 I have been looking forward to this one for a while. Quazar surprised me in the RR coming in 2nd 1 game behind Hannibal. He is going to have to again play some good chess to compete with Hannibal. We shall see.
I used my probabilities calculator once again under these assumptions:
Code: Select all
CCRL 40/40:
Hannibal 1.2 x64 (2925); 40.6% of draws.
Quazar 0.4 x64 (2906); 42.1% of draws.
I have supposed a probability of draw of (40.6% + 42.1%)/2 = 41.35% for a single game. Then, thirty games with a rating difference of 2925 - 2906 = 19 Elo give these probabilities:
Code: Select all
Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution, ® 2013.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Probabilities of all possible scores in a match between two engines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Write down the number of games of the match (up to 50):
30
Write down the engines rating difference (between -800 Elo and 800 Elo):
19
Probability of a draw (%) between 0 % and 94.53 %
41.35
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
The results have been saved to Probabilities.txt file.
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 138 ms.
Thanks for using Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution. Press Enter to exit.
Code: Select all
Probabilities for a match of 30 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo): 19.00 Elo.
Probability of a win = W ~ 32.0566 %
Probability of a draw = D ~ 41.3500 %
Probability of a lose = L ~ 26.5934 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 30.0/30
+30 = 0 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 30.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 29.5/30
+29 = 1 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 29.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 29.0/30
+28 = 2 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+29 = 0 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 29.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 28.5/30
+27 = 3 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+28 = 1 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 28.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 28.0/30
+26 = 4 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+27 = 2 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+28 = 0 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 28.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 27.5/30
+25 = 5 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+26 = 3 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+27 = 1 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 27.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 27.0/30
+24 = 6 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+25 = 4 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+26 = 2 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+27 = 0 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 27.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 26.5/30
+23 = 7 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 5 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+25 = 3 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+26 = 1 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 26.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 26.0/30
+22 = 8 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+23 = 6 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 4 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+25 = 2 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
+26 = 0 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 26.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 25.5/30
+21 = 9 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+22 = 7 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+23 = 5 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 3 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
+25 = 1 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 25.5 points out of 30: 0.0001 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 25.0/30
+20 =10 - 0
P ~ 0.0001 %
+21 = 8 - 1
P ~ 0.0001 %
+22 = 6 - 2
P ~ 0.0001 %
+23 = 4 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 2 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
+25 = 0 - 5
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 25.0 points out of 30: 0.0003 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 24.5/30
+19 =11 - 0
P ~ 0.0001 %
+20 = 9 - 1
P ~ 0.0004 %
+21 = 7 - 2
P ~ 0.0003 %
+22 = 5 - 3
P ~ 0.0001 %
+23 = 3 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 1 - 5
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 24.5 points out of 30: 0.0009 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 24.0/30
+18 =12 - 0
P ~ 0.0003 %
+19 =10 - 1
P ~ 0.0010 %
+20 = 8 - 2
P ~ 0.0011 %
+21 = 6 - 3
P ~ 0.0005 %
+22 = 4 - 4
P ~ 0.0001 %
+23 = 2 - 5
P ~ 0.0000 %
+24 = 0 - 6
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 24.0 points out of 30: 0.0029 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 23.5/30
+17 =13 - 0
P ~ 0.0005 %
+18 =11 - 1
P ~ 0.0021 %
+19 = 9 - 2
P ~ 0.0031 %
+20 = 7 - 3
P ~ 0.0018 %
+21 = 5 - 4
P ~ 0.0005 %
+22 = 3 - 5
P ~ 0.0000 %
+23 = 1 - 6
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 23.5 points out of 30: 0.0080 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 23.0/30
+16 =14 - 0
P ~ 0.0008 %
+17 =12 - 1
P ~ 0.0041 %
+18 =10 - 2
P ~ 0.0075 %
+19 = 8 - 3
P ~ 0.0059 %
+20 = 6 - 4
P ~ 0.0021 %
+21 = 4 - 5
P ~ 0.0003 %
+22 = 2 - 6
P ~ 0.0000 %
+23 = 0 - 7
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 23.0 points out of 30: 0.0208 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 22.5/30
+15 =15 - 0
P ~ 0.0011 %
+16 =13 - 1
P ~ 0.0070 %
+17 =11 - 2
P ~ 0.0159 %
+18 = 9 - 3
P ~ 0.0162 %
+19 = 7 - 4
P ~ 0.0076 %
+20 = 5 - 5
P ~ 0.0016 %
+21 = 3 - 6
P ~ 0.0001 %
+22 = 1 - 7
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 22.5 points out of 30: 0.0495 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 22.0/30
+14 =16 - 0
P ~ 0.0013 %
+15 =14 - 1
P ~ 0.0103 %
+16 =12 - 2
P ~ 0.0291 %
+17 =10 - 3
P ~ 0.0375 %
+18 = 8 - 4
P ~ 0.0234 %
+19 = 6 - 5
P ~ 0.0069 %
+20 = 4 - 6
P ~ 0.0009 %
+21 = 2 - 7
P ~ 0.0000 %
+22 = 0 - 8
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 22.0 points out of 30: 0.1093 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 21.5/30
+13 =17 - 0
P ~ 0.0014 %
+14 =15 - 1
P ~ 0.0132 %
+15 =13 - 2
P ~ 0.0462 %
+16 =11 - 3
P ~ 0.0748 %
+17 = 9 - 4
P ~ 0.0603 %
+18 = 7 - 5
P ~ 0.0241 %
+19 = 5 - 6
P ~ 0.0044 %
+20 = 3 - 7
P ~ 0.0003 %
+21 = 1 - 8
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 21.5 points out of 30: 0.2247 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 21.0/30
+12 =18 - 0
P ~ 0.0013 %
+13 =16 - 1
P ~ 0.0149 %
+14 =14 - 2
P ~ 0.0638 %
+15 =12 - 3
P ~ 0.1287 %
+16 =10 - 4
P ~ 0.1323 %
+17 = 8 - 5
P ~ 0.0698 %
+18 = 6 - 6
P ~ 0.0181 %
+19 = 4 - 7
P ~ 0.0020 %
+20 = 2 - 8
P ~ 0.0001 %
+21 = 0 - 9
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 21.0 points out of 30: 0.4310 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 20.5/30
+11 =19 - 0
P ~ 0.0010 %
+12 =17 - 1
P ~ 0.0147 %
+13 =15 - 2
P ~ 0.0768 %
+14 =13 - 3
P ~ 0.1915 %
+15 =11 - 4
P ~ 0.2482 %
+16 = 9 - 5
P ~ 0.1702 %
+17 = 7 - 6
P ~ 0.0599 %
+18 = 5 - 7
P ~ 0.0100 %
+19 = 3 - 8
P ~ 0.0007 %
+20 = 1 - 9
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 20.5 points out of 30: 0.7730 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 20.0/30
+10 =20 - 0
P ~ 0.0007 %
+11 =18 - 1
P ~ 0.0127 %
+12 =16 - 2
P ~ 0.0805 %
+13 =14 - 3
P ~ 0.2470 %
+14 =12 - 4
P ~ 0.4003 %
+15 =10 - 5
P ~ 0.3512 %
+16 = 8 - 6
P ~ 0.1642 %
+17 = 6 - 7
P ~ 0.0385 %
+18 = 4 - 8
P ~ 0.0040 %
+19 = 2 - 9
P ~ 0.0001 %
+20 = 0 -10
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 20.0 points out of 30: 1.2993 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 19.5/30
+ 9 =21 - 0
P ~ 0.0005 %
+10 =19 - 1
P ~ 0.0095 %
+11 =17 - 2
P ~ 0.0733 %
+12 =15 - 3
P ~ 0.2761 %
+13 =13 - 4
P ~ 0.5560 %
+14 =11 - 5
P ~ 0.6178 %
+15 = 9 - 6
P ~ 0.3765 %
+16 = 7 - 7
P ~ 0.1207 %
+17 = 5 - 8
P ~ 0.0186 %
+18 = 3 - 9
P ~ 0.0011 %
+19 = 1 -10
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 19.5 points out of 30: 2.0501 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 19.0/30
+ 8 =22 - 0
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 9 =20 - 1
P ~ 0.0061 %
+10 =18 - 2
P ~ 0.0578 %
+11 =16 - 3
P ~ 0.2671 %
+12 =14 - 4
P ~ 0.6660 %
+13 =12 - 5
P ~ 0.9297 %
+14 =10 - 6
P ~ 0.7284 %
+15 = 8 - 7
P ~ 0.3113 %
+16 = 6 - 8
P ~ 0.0679 %
+17 = 4 - 9
P ~ 0.0066 %
+18 = 2 -10
P ~ 0.0002 %
+19 = 0 -11
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 19.0 points out of 30: 3.0415 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 18.5/30
+ 7 =23 - 0
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 8 =21 - 1
P ~ 0.0034 %
+ 9 =19 - 2
P ~ 0.0392 %
+10 =17 - 3
P ~ 0.2230 %
+11 =15 - 4
P ~ 0.6872 %
+12 =13 - 5
P ~ 1.1993 %
+13 =11 - 6
P ~ 1.1959 %
+14 = 9 - 7
P ~ 0.6693 %
+15 = 7 - 8
P ~ 0.2002 %
+16 = 5 - 9
P ~ 0.0291 %
+17 = 3 -10
P ~ 0.0017 %
+18 = 1 -11
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 18.5 points out of 30: 4.2484 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 18.0/30
+ 6 =24 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 7 =22 - 1
P ~ 0.0016 %
+ 8 =20 - 2
P ~ 0.0228 %
+ 9 =18 - 3
P ~ 0.1598 %
+10 =16 - 4
P ~ 0.6095 %
+11 =14 - 5
P ~ 1.3260 %
+12 =12 - 6
P ~ 1.6711 %
+13 =10 - 7
P ~ 1.2086 %
+14 = 8 - 8
P ~ 0.4842 %
+15 = 6 - 9
P ~ 0.1001 %
+16 = 4 -10
P ~ 0.0094 %
+17 = 2 -11
P ~ 0.0003 %
+18 = 0 -12
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 18.0 points out of 30: 5.5934 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 17.5/30
+ 5 =25 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 =23 - 1
P ~ 0.0006 %
+ 7 =21 - 2
P ~ 0.0112 %
+ 8 =19 - 3
P ~ 0.0976 %
+ 9 =17 - 4
P ~ 0.4624 %
+10 =15 - 5
P ~ 1.2543 %
+11 =13 - 6
P ~ 1.9898 %
+12 =11 - 7
P ~ 1.8424 %
+13 = 9 - 8
P ~ 0.9716 %
+14 = 7 - 9
P ~ 0.2768 %
+15 = 5 -10
P ~ 0.0386 %
+16 = 3 -11
P ~ 0.0022 %
+17 = 1 -12
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 17.5 points out of 30: 6.9477 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 17.0/30
+ 4 =26 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 =24 - 1
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 6 =22 - 2
P ~ 0.0046 %
+ 7 =20 - 3
P ~ 0.0504 %
+ 8 =18 - 4
P ~ 0.2983 %
+ 9 =16 - 5
P ~ 1.0112 %
+10 =14 - 6
P ~ 2.0167 %
+11 =12 - 7
P ~ 2.3766 %
+12 =10 - 8
P ~ 1.6293 %
+13 = 8 - 9
P ~ 0.6249 %
+14 = 6 -10
P ~ 0.1246 %
+15 = 4 -11
P ~ 0.0113 %
+16 = 2 -12
P ~ 0.0004 %
+17 = 0 -13
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 17.0 points out of 30: 8.1483 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 16.5/30
+ 3 =27 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 =25 - 1
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 5 =23 - 2
P ~ 0.0015 %
+ 6 =21 - 3
P ~ 0.0217 %
+ 7 =19 - 4
P ~ 0.1620 %
+ 8 =17 - 5
P ~ 0.6905 %
+ 9 =15 - 6
P ~ 1.7342 %
+10 =13 - 7
P ~ 2.5939 %
+11 =11 - 8
P ~ 2.2927 %
+12 = 9 - 9
P ~ 1.1643 %
+13 = 7 -10
P ~ 0.3215 %
+14 = 5 -11
P ~ 0.0437 %
+15 = 3 -12
P ~ 0.0024 %
+16 = 1 -13
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 16.5 points out of 30: 9.0285 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 16.0/30
+ 2 =28 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 =26 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 =24 - 2
P ~ 0.0004 %
+ 5 =22 - 3
P ~ 0.0076 %
+ 6 =20 - 4
P ~ 0.0731 %
+ 7 =18 - 5
P ~ 0.3959 %
+ 8 =16 - 6
P ~ 1.2583 %
+ 9 =14 - 7
P ~ 2.3900 %
+10 =12 - 8
P ~ 2.7109 %
+11 =10 - 9
P ~ 1.8021 %
+12 = 8 -10
P ~ 0.6739 %
+13 = 6 -11
P ~ 0.1316 %
+14 = 4 -12
P ~ 0.0117 %
+15 = 2 -13
P ~ 0.0004 %
+16 = 0 -14
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 16.0 points out of 30: 9.4559 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 15.5/30
+ 1 =29 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 =27 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 =25 - 2
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 4 =23 - 3
P ~ 0.0021 %
+ 5 =21 - 4
P ~ 0.0270 %
+ 6 =19 - 5
P ~ 0.1881 %
+ 7 =17 - 6
P ~ 0.7638 %
+ 8 =15 - 7
P ~ 1.8497 %
+ 9 =13 - 8
P ~ 2.6898 %
+10 =11 - 9
P ~ 2.3246 %
+11 = 9 -10
P ~ 1.1590 %
+12 = 7 -11
P ~ 0.3152 %
+13 = 5 -12
P ~ 0.0423 %
+14 = 3 -13
P ~ 0.0023 %
+15 = 1 -14
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 15.5 points out of 30: 9.3641 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 15.0/30
+ 0 =30 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =28 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 =26 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 =24 - 3
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 4 =22 - 4
P ~ 0.0079 %
+ 5 =20 - 5
P ~ 0.0728 %
+ 6 =18 - 6
P ~ 0.3831 %
+ 7 =16 - 7
P ~ 1.1930 %
+ 8 =14 - 8
P ~ 2.2305 %
+ 9 =12 - 9
P ~ 2.4988 %
+10 =10 -10
P ~ 1.6445 %
+11 = 8 -11
P ~ 0.6099 %
+12 = 6 -12
P ~ 0.1183 %
+13 = 4 -13
P ~ 0.0105 %
+14 = 2 -14
P ~ 0.0003 %
+15 = 0 -15
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 15.0 points out of 30: 8.7700 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 14.5/30
+ 0 =29 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =27 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 =25 - 3
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 3 =23 - 4
P ~ 0.0018 %
+ 4 =21 - 5
P ~ 0.0224 %
+ 5 =19 - 6
P ~ 0.1561 %
+ 6 =17 - 7
P ~ 0.6336 %
+ 7 =15 - 8
P ~ 1.5345 %
+ 8 =13 - 9
P ~ 2.2314 %
+ 9 =11 -10
P ~ 1.9284 %
+10 = 9 -11
P ~ 0.9615 %
+11 = 7 -12
P ~ 0.2615 %
+12 = 5 -13
P ~ 0.0351 %
+13 = 3 -14
P ~ 0.0019 %
+14 = 1 -15
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 14.5 points out of 30: 7.7682 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 14.0/30
+ 0 =28 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =26 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 =24 - 4
P ~ 0.0003 %
+ 3 =22 - 5
P ~ 0.0052 %
+ 4 =20 - 6
P ~ 0.0503 %
+ 5 =18 - 7
P ~ 0.2724 %
+ 6 =16 - 8
P ~ 0.8659 %
+ 7 =14 - 9
P ~ 1.6448 %
+ 8 =12 -10
P ~ 1.8656 %
+ 9 =10 -11
P ~ 1.2402 %
+10 = 8 -12
P ~ 0.4638 %
+11 = 6 -13
P ~ 0.0906 %
+12 = 4 -14
P ~ 0.0081 %
+13 = 2 -15
P ~ 0.0002 %
+14 = 0 -16
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 14.0 points out of 30: 6.5075 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 13.5/30
+ 0 =27 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =25 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 =23 - 5
P ~ 0.0009 %
+ 3 =21 - 6
P ~ 0.0124 %
+ 4 =19 - 7
P ~ 0.0925 %
+ 5 =17 - 8
P ~ 0.3942 %
+ 6 =15 - 9
P ~ 0.9901 %
+ 7 =13 -10
P ~ 1.4809 %
+ 8 =11 -11
P ~ 1.3089 %
+ 9 = 9 -12
P ~ 0.6647 %
+10 = 7 -13
P ~ 0.1835 %
+11 = 5 -14
P ~ 0.0250 %
+12 = 3 -15
P ~ 0.0014 %
+13 = 1 -16
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 13.5 points out of 30: 5.1545 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 13.0/30
+ 0 =26 - 4
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =24 - 5
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 2 =22 - 6
P ~ 0.0022 %
+ 3 =20 - 7
P ~ 0.0239 %
+ 4 =18 - 8
P ~ 0.1413 %
+ 5 =16 - 9
P ~ 0.4789 %
+ 6 =14 -10
P ~ 0.9551 %
+ 7 =12 -11
P ~ 1.1256 %
+ 8 =10 -12
P ~ 0.7717 %
+ 9 = 8 -13
P ~ 0.2959 %
+10 = 6 -14
P ~ 0.0590 %
+11 = 4 -15
P ~ 0.0054 %
+12 = 2 -16
P ~ 0.0002 %
+13 = 0 -17
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 13.0 points out of 30: 3.8591 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 12.5/30
+ 0 =25 - 5
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =23 - 6
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 2 =21 - 7
P ~ 0.0044 %
+ 3 =19 - 8
P ~ 0.0384 %
+ 4 =17 - 9
P ~ 0.1817 %
+ 5 =15 -10
P ~ 0.4928 %
+ 6 =13 -11
P ~ 0.7818 %
+ 7 =11 -12
P ~ 0.7239 %
+ 8 = 9 -13
P ~ 0.3817 %
+ 9 = 7 -14
P ~ 0.1088 %
+10 = 5 -15
P ~ 0.0152 %
+11 = 3 -16
P ~ 0.0009 %
+12 = 1 -17
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 12.5 points out of 30: 2.7298 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 12.0/30
+ 0 =24 - 6
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =22 - 7
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 2 =20 - 8
P ~ 0.0074 %
+ 3 =18 - 9
P ~ 0.0521 %
+ 4 =16 -10
P ~ 0.1986 %
+ 5 =14 -11
P ~ 0.4322 %
+ 6 =12 -12
P ~ 0.5447 %
+ 7 =10 -13
P ~ 0.3939 %
+ 8 = 8 -14
P ~ 0.1578 %
+ 9 = 6 -15
P ~ 0.0326 %
+10 = 4 -16
P ~ 0.0031 %
+11 = 2 -17
P ~ 0.0001 %
+12 = 0 -18
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 12.0 points out of 30: 1.8231 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 11.5/30
+ 0 =23 - 7
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =21 - 8
P ~ 0.0009 %
+ 2 =19 - 9
P ~ 0.0106 %
+ 3 =17 -10
P ~ 0.0603 %
+ 4 =15 -11
P ~ 0.1858 %
+ 5 =13 -12
P ~ 0.3243 %
+ 6 =11 -13
P ~ 0.3234 %
+ 7 = 9 -14
P ~ 0.1810 %
+ 8 = 7 -15
P ~ 0.0541 %
+ 9 = 5 -16
P ~ 0.0079 %
+10 = 3 -17
P ~ 0.0005 %
+11 = 1 -18
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 11.5 points out of 30: 1.1487 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 11.0/30
+ 0 =22 - 8
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =20 - 9
P ~ 0.0014 %
+ 2 =18 -10
P ~ 0.0130 %
+ 3 =16 -11
P ~ 0.0599 %
+ 4 =14 -12
P ~ 0.1494 %
+ 5 =12 -13
P ~ 0.2086 %
+ 6 =10 -14
P ~ 0.1634 %
+ 7 = 8 -15
P ~ 0.0698 %
+ 8 = 6 -16
P ~ 0.0152 %
+ 9 = 4 -17
P ~ 0.0015 %
+10 = 2 -18
P ~ 0.0000 %
+11 = 0 -19
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 11.0 points out of 30: 0.6823 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 10.5/30
+ 0 =21 - 9
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =19 -10
P ~ 0.0018 %
+ 2 =17 -11
P ~ 0.0136 %
+ 3 =15 -12
P ~ 0.0514 %
+ 4 =13 -13
P ~ 0.1035 %
+ 5 =11 -14
P ~ 0.1150 %
+ 6 = 9 -15
P ~ 0.0701 %
+ 7 = 7 -16
P ~ 0.0225 %
+ 8 = 5 -17
P ~ 0.0035 %
+ 9 = 3 -18
P ~ 0.0002 %
+10 = 1 -19
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 10.5 points out of 30: 0.3815 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 10.0/30
+ 0 =20 -10
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =18 -11
P ~ 0.0020 %
+ 2 =16 -12
P ~ 0.0124 %
+ 3 =14 -13
P ~ 0.0381 %
+ 4 =12 -14
P ~ 0.0618 %
+ 5 =10 -15
P ~ 0.0542 %
+ 6 = 8 -16
P ~ 0.0253 %
+ 7 = 6 -17
P ~ 0.0059 %
+ 8 = 4 -18
P ~ 0.0006 %
+ 9 = 2 -19
P ~ 0.0000 %
+10 = 0 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 10.0 points out of 30: 0.2006 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.5/30
+ 0 =19 -11
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =17 -12
P ~ 0.0019 %
+ 2 =15 -13
P ~ 0.0098 %
+ 3 =13 -14
P ~ 0.0245 %
+ 4 =11 -15
P ~ 0.0318 %
+ 5 = 9 -16
P ~ 0.0218 %
+ 6 = 7 -17
P ~ 0.0077 %
+ 7 = 5 -18
P ~ 0.0013 %
+ 8 = 3 -19
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 9 = 1 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 9.5 points out of 30: 0.0990 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.0/30
+ 0 =18 -12
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =16 -13
P ~ 0.0016 %
+ 2 =14 -14
P ~ 0.0068 %
+ 3 =12 -15
P ~ 0.0137 %
+ 4 =10 -16
P ~ 0.0141 %
+ 5 = 8 -17
P ~ 0.0074 %
+ 6 = 6 -18
P ~ 0.0019 %
+ 7 = 4 -19
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 8 = 2 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 9 = 0 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 9.0 points out of 30: 0.0458 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.5/30
+ 0 =17 -13
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =15 -14
P ~ 0.0012 %
+ 2 =13 -15
P ~ 0.0041 %
+ 3 =11 -16
P ~ 0.0066 %
+ 4 = 9 -17
P ~ 0.0053 %
+ 5 = 7 -18
P ~ 0.0021 %
+ 6 = 5 -19
P ~ 0.0004 %
+ 7 = 3 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 8 = 1 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 8.5 points out of 30: 0.0198 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.0/30
+ 0 =16 -14
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =14 -15
P ~ 0.0007 %
+ 2 =12 -16
P ~ 0.0021 %
+ 3 =10 -17
P ~ 0.0027 %
+ 4 = 8 -18
P ~ 0.0017 %
+ 5 = 6 -19
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 6 = 4 -20
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 7 = 2 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 8 = 0 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 8.0 points out of 30: 0.0080 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.5/30
+ 0 =15 -15
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 =13 -16
P ~ 0.0004 %
+ 2 =11 -17
P ~ 0.0010 %
+ 3 = 9 -18
P ~ 0.0010 %
+ 4 = 7 -19
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 5 = 5 -20
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 6 = 3 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 7 = 1 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 7.5 points out of 30: 0.0030 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.0/30
+ 0 =14 -16
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =12 -17
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 2 =10 -18
P ~ 0.0004 %
+ 3 = 8 -19
P ~ 0.0003 %
+ 4 = 6 -20
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 5 = 4 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 = 2 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 7 = 0 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 7.0 points out of 30: 0.0010 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.5/30
+ 0 =13 -17
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =11 -18
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 2 = 9 -19
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 3 = 7 -20
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 4 = 5 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 = 3 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 = 1 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 6.5 points out of 30: 0.0003 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.0/30
+ 0 =12 -18
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 =10 -19
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 8 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 6 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 4 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 = 2 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 = 0 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 6.0 points out of 30: 0.0001 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.5/30
+ 0 =11 -19
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 9 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 7 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 5 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 3 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 = 1 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 5.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.0/30
+ 0 =10 -20
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 8 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 6 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 4 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 2 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 = 0 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 5.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.5/30
+ 0 = 9 -21
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 7 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 5 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 3 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 1 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 4.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.0/30
+ 0 = 8 -22
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 6 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 4 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 2 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 0 -26
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 4.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.5/30
+ 0 = 7 -23
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 5 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 3 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 1 -26
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 3.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.0/30
+ 0 = 6 -24
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 4 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 2 -26
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 0 -27
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 3.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.5/30
+ 0 = 5 -25
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 3 -26
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 1 -27
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 2.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.0/30
+ 0 = 4 -26
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 2 -27
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 0 -28
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 2.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.5/30
+ 0 = 3 -27
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 1 -28
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 1.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.0/30
+ 0 = 2 -28
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 0 -29
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 1.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.5/30
+ 0 = 1 -29
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 0.5 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.0/30
+ 0 = 0 -30
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 0.0 points out of 30: 0.0000 %
Summarizing:
Code: Select all
Prob.(Hannibal wins the 30-game match) ~ 60.7977%.
Prob.(tied match) ~ 8.7700%.
Prob.(Quazar wins the 30-game match) ~ 30.4323%.
Let us wait and see. Thanks again for your mega effort! Sorry for the long output of my programme.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Tue Jan 15, 2013 4:33 am
And thanks to you, Jesus. They were fairly close in strength, and even 1 of them was a tie for 1st place- but still I thought it a bit odd that in Groups 3, 4, 5 and 6 championship matches just finished the other day- the engine that finished 2nd in all 4 RRs beat the 1st place finisher in all 4 matches for the group championships.
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:56 am
15 of the 30 games are in the books- game 16 is playing as we speak. I remember once Critter 1.6a was behind Komodo 5 by 11 games, and came back to win 10 in a row and lose by 1 game. So I know anything can happen. But still, I just don't see a complete flip-flop in the 2nd half of this match. It could happen- stranger things have..........
Inspiron 620 Intel i5 (SP8)-4 True Cores [40/21] XPS 8500 Intel i5-4 True Cores [40/19] Code: Select all
Group 2 SP8-Core-i5 2013
Hannibal 1.2 x64 +6/-1/=8 66.67% 10.0/15
Quazar 0.4 x64 +1/-6/=8 33.33% 5.0/15With only being able to come up with 1 win in the first 15 games, what are the realistic expectations for Quazar in the next 15? Myself- I don't really know. I guess that is why we play matches to the end. Only thing I do know- Quazar needs to pick his game up a bit.
See you then-
george
Ajedrecista
Posts: 2130Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:04 pmLocation: Madrid, Spain.
Post by Ajedrecista Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:12 pm
Hello George:
geots wrote: 15 of the 30 games are in the books- game 16 is playing as we speak. I remember once Critter 1.6a was behind Komodo 5 by 11 games, and came back to win 10 in a row and lose by 1 game. So I know anything can happen. But still, I just don't see a complete flip-flop in the 2nd half of this match. It could happen- stranger things have..........
Inspiron 620 Intel i5 (SP8)-4 True Cores [40/21] XPS 8500 Intel i5-4 True Cores [40/19] Code: Select all
Group 2 SP8-Core-i5 2013
Hannibal 1.2 x64 +6/-1/=8 66.67% 10.0/15
Quazar 0.4 x64 +1/-6/=8 33.33% 5.0/15With only being able to come up with 1 win in the first 15 games, what are the realistic expectations for Quazar in the next 15? Myself- I don't really know. I guess that is why we play matches to the end. Only thing I do know- Quazar needs to pick his game up a bit.
See you then-
george
Here are the probabilities for the next fifteen games under my assumptions:
Code: Select all
Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution, ® 2013.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Probabilities of all possible scores in a match between two engines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Write down the number of games of the match (up to 50):
15
Write down the engines rating difference (between -800 Elo and 800 Elo):
19
Probability of a draw (%) between 0 % and 94.53 %
41.35
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
The results have been saved to Probabilities.txt file.
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 51 ms.
Thanks for using Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution. Press Enter to exit.
Code: Select all
Probabilities for a match of 15 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo): 19.00 Elo.
Probability of a win = W ~ 32.0566 %
Probability of a draw = D ~ 41.3500 %
Probability of a lose = L ~ 26.5934 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 15.0/15
+15 = 0 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 15.0 points out of 15: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 14.5/15
+14 = 1 - 0
P ~ 0.0001 %
Probability of win 14.5 points out of 15: 0.0001 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 14.0/15
+13 = 2 - 0
P ~ 0.0007 %
+14 = 0 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 14.0 points out of 15: 0.0007 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 13.5/15
+12 = 3 - 0
P ~ 0.0038 %
+13 = 1 - 1
P ~ 0.0009 %
Probability of win 13.5 points out of 15: 0.0047 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 13.0/15
+11 = 4 - 0
P ~ 0.0147 %
+12 = 2 - 1
P ~ 0.0073 %
+13 = 0 - 2
P ~ 0.0003 %
Probability of win 13.0 points out of 15: 0.0222 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 12.5/15
+10 = 5 - 0
P ~ 0.0416 %
+11 = 3 - 1
P ~ 0.0377 %
+12 = 1 - 2
P ~ 0.0047 %
Probability of win 12.5 points out of 15: 0.0840 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 12.0/15
+ 9 = 6 - 0
P ~ 0.0894 %
+10 = 4 - 1
P ~ 0.1338 %
+11 = 2 - 2
P ~ 0.0364 %
+12 = 0 - 3
P ~ 0.0010 %
Probability of win 12.0 points out of 15: 0.2606 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 11.5/15
+ 8 = 7 - 0
P ~ 0.1483 %
+ 9 = 5 - 1
P ~ 0.3451 %
+10 = 3 - 2
P ~ 0.1721 %
+11 = 1 - 3
P ~ 0.0156 %
Probability of win 11.5 points out of 15: 0.6811 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 11.0/15
+ 7 = 8 - 0
P ~ 0.1913 %
+ 8 = 6 - 1
P ~ 0.6677 %
+ 9 = 4 - 2
P ~ 0.5549 %
+10 = 2 - 3
P ~ 0.1107 %
+11 = 0 - 4
P ~ 0.0025 %
Probability of win 11.0 points out of 15: 1.5271 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 10.5/15
+ 6 = 9 - 0
P ~ 0.1920 %
+ 7 = 7 - 1
P ~ 0.9844 %
+ 8 = 5 - 2
P ~ 1.2883 %
+ 9 = 3 - 3
P ~ 0.4758 %
+10 = 1 - 4
P ~ 0.0356 %
Probability of win 10.5 points out of 15: 2.9761 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 10.0/15
+ 5 =10 - 0
P ~ 0.1486 %
+ 6 = 8 - 1
P ~ 1.1110 %
+ 7 = 6 - 2
P ~ 2.2158 %
+ 8 = 4 - 3
P ~ 1.3810 %
+ 9 = 2 - 4
P ~ 0.2295 %
+10 = 0 - 5
P ~ 0.0046 %
Probability of win 10.0 points out of 15: 5.0904 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.5/15
+ 4 =11 - 0
P ~ 0.0871 %
+ 5 = 9 - 1
P ~ 0.9554 %
+ 6 = 7 - 2
P ~ 2.8582 %
+ 7 = 5 - 3
P ~ 2.8501 %
+ 8 = 3 - 4
P ~ 0.8881 %
+ 9 = 1 - 5
P ~ 0.0590 %
Probability of win 9.5 points out of 15: 7.6980 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.0/15
+ 3 =12 - 0
P ~ 0.0375 %
+ 4 =10 - 1
P ~ 0.6162 %
+ 5 = 8 - 2
P ~ 2.7651 %
+ 6 = 6 - 3
P ~ 4.2891 %
+ 7 = 4 - 4
P ~ 2.2912 %
+ 8 = 2 - 5
P ~ 0.3427 %
+ 9 = 0 - 6
P ~ 0.0063 %
Probability of win 9.0 points out of 15: 10.3481 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.5/15
+ 2 =13 - 0
P ~ 0.0111 %
+ 3 =11 - 1
P ~ 0.2890 %
+ 4 = 9 - 2
P ~ 1.9815 %
+ 5 = 7 - 3
P ~ 4.7421 %
+ 6 = 5 - 4
P ~ 4.1376 %
+ 7 = 3 - 5
P ~ 1.1788 %
+ 8 = 1 - 6
P ~ 0.0735 %
Probability of win 8.5 points out of 15: 12.4138 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.0/15
+ 1 =14 - 0
P ~ 0.0021 %
+ 2 =12 - 1
P ~ 0.0932 %
+ 3 =10 - 2
P ~ 1.0224 %
+ 4 = 8 - 3
P ~ 3.8231 %
+ 5 = 6 - 4
P ~ 5.3372 %
+ 6 = 4 - 5
P ~ 2.6610 %
+ 7 = 2 - 6
P ~ 0.3791 %
+ 8 = 0 - 7
P ~ 0.0068 %
Probability of win 8.0 points out of 15: 13.3247 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.5/15
+ 0 =15 - 0
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 1 =13 - 1
P ~ 0.0185 %
+ 2 =11 - 2
P ~ 0.3597 %
+ 3 = 9 - 3
P ~ 2.1917 %
+ 4 = 7 - 4
P ~ 4.9175 %
+ 5 = 5 - 5
P ~ 4.1190 %
+ 6 = 3 - 6
P ~ 1.1409 %
+ 7 = 1 - 7
P ~ 0.0697 %
Probability of win 7.5 points out of 15: 12.8171 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.0/15
+ 0 =14 - 1
P ~ 0.0017 %
+ 1 =12 - 2
P ~ 0.0773 %
+ 2 =10 - 3
P ~ 0.8481 %
+ 3 = 8 - 4
P ~ 3.1715 %
+ 4 = 6 - 5
P ~ 4.4276 %
+ 5 = 4 - 6
P ~ 2.2075 %
+ 6 = 2 - 7
P ~ 0.3145 %
+ 7 = 0 - 8
P ~ 0.0056 %
Probability of win 7.0 points out of 15: 11.0539 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.5/15
+ 0 =13 - 2
P ~ 0.0077 %
+ 1 =11 - 3
P ~ 0.1989 %
+ 2 = 9 - 4
P ~ 1.3637 %
+ 3 = 7 - 5
P ~ 3.2635 %
+ 4 = 5 - 6
P ~ 2.8475 %
+ 5 = 3 - 7
P ~ 0.8113 %
+ 6 = 1 - 8
P ~ 0.0506 %
Probability of win 6.5 points out of 15: 8.5431 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.0/15
+ 0 =12 - 3
P ~ 0.0214 %
+ 1 =10 - 4
P ~ 0.3518 %
+ 2 = 8 - 5
P ~ 1.5786 %
+ 3 = 6 - 6
P ~ 2.4487 %
+ 4 = 4 - 7
P ~ 1.3081 %
+ 5 = 2 - 8
P ~ 0.1957 %
+ 6 = 0 - 9
P ~ 0.0036 %
Probability of win 6.0 points out of 15: 5.9078 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.5/15
+ 0 =11 - 4
P ~ 0.0413 %
+ 1 = 9 - 5
P ~ 0.4525 %
+ 2 = 7 - 6
P ~ 1.3537 %
+ 3 = 5 - 7
P ~ 1.3498 %
+ 4 = 3 - 8
P ~ 0.4206 %
+ 5 = 1 - 9
P ~ 0.0280 %
Probability of win 5.5 points out of 15: 3.6459 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.0/15
+ 0 =10 - 5
P ~ 0.0584 %
+ 1 = 8 - 6
P ~ 0.4365 %
+ 2 = 6 - 7
P ~ 0.8706 %
+ 3 = 4 - 8
P ~ 0.5426 %
+ 4 = 2 - 9
P ~ 0.0902 %
+ 5 = 0 -10
P ~ 0.0018 %
Probability of win 5.0 points out of 15: 2.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.5/15
+ 0 = 9 - 6
P ~ 0.0626 %
+ 1 = 7 - 7
P ~ 0.3208 %
+ 2 = 5 - 8
P ~ 0.4199 %
+ 3 = 3 - 9
P ~ 0.1551 %
+ 4 = 1 -10
P ~ 0.0116 %
Probability of win 4.5 points out of 15: 0.9700 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.0/15
+ 0 = 8 - 7
P ~ 0.0517 %
+ 1 = 6 - 8
P ~ 0.1806 %
+ 2 = 4 - 9
P ~ 0.1500 %
+ 3 = 2 -10
P ~ 0.0299 %
+ 4 = 0 -11
P ~ 0.0007 %
Probability of win 4.0 points out of 15: 0.4129 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.5/15
+ 0 = 7 - 8
P ~ 0.0333 %
+ 1 = 5 - 9
P ~ 0.0774 %
+ 2 = 3 -10
P ~ 0.0386 %
+ 3 = 1 -11
P ~ 0.0035 %
Probability of win 3.5 points out of 15: 0.1528 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.0/15
+ 0 = 6 - 9
P ~ 0.0166 %
+ 1 = 4 -10
P ~ 0.0249 %
+ 2 = 2 -11
P ~ 0.0068 %
+ 3 = 0 -12
P ~ 0.0002 %
Probability of win 3.0 points out of 15: 0.0485 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.5/15
+ 0 = 5 -10
P ~ 0.0064 %
+ 1 = 3 -11
P ~ 0.0058 %
+ 2 = 1 -12
P ~ 0.0007 %
Probability of win 2.5 points out of 15: 0.0130 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.0/15
+ 0 = 4 -11
P ~ 0.0019 %
+ 1 = 2 -12
P ~ 0.0009 %
+ 2 = 0 -13
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 2.0 points out of 15: 0.0028 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.5/15
+ 0 = 3 -12
P ~ 0.0004 %
+ 1 = 1 -13
P ~ 0.0001 %
Probability of win 1.5 points out of 15: 0.0005 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.0/15
+ 0 = 2 -13
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 1 = 0 -14
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 1.0 points out of 15: 0.0001 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.5/15
+ 0 = 1 -14
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 0.5 points out of 15: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.0/15
+ 0 = 0 -15
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 0.0 points out of 15: 0.0000 %
Hannibal needs more than five points to ensure a win. Summarizing:
Code: Select all
Prob.(Hannibal wins the 30-game match) ~ 96.3994%.
Prob.(tied match) ~ 2.0000%.
Prob.(Quazar wins the 30-game match) ~ 1.6006%.
My money is on Hannibal definitively.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Thu Jan 17, 2013 4:50 am
My money goes with yours. Thanks, Jesus.
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:18 am
Well, there was very little fanfare in the 2nd half of this match. Just more of the same, with Hannibal 1.2 continuing to take care of business. Quazar was unable to put together any kind of run that would get him back in the match. In the end, Hannibal was just too much for him. And amazing that this may have been Hannibal 1.2's swan song, as it is my guess Sam and Edsel are headed for Group 1 with Hannibal 1.3. If so, what better way to go out:
Inspiron 620 Intel i5 (SP8)-4 True Cores [40/21] XPS 8500 Intel i5-4 True Cores [40/19] Code: Select all
Group 2 SP8-Core-i5 2013
Hannibal 1.2 x64 +9/-3/=18 60.00% 18.0/30
Quazar 0.4 x64 +3/-9/=18 40.00% 12.0/30This was one of those times where you know they could play 20 more matches, and little or nothing would change. Quazar came a long way fighting thru the RR, and has a lot to be proud of. No sin to lose to Hannibal- most engines will. So:
Group 2 Champion: Hannibal 1.2 x64
And congratulations to Sam and Edsel!
Until then-
george
Edsel Apostol
Posts: 803Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:53 amFull name: Edsel Apostol
Post by Edsel Apostol Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:42 am
Thanks George. Looking forward to see the Critter/Boquet match-up.
geots
Posts: 4790Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:42 am
Post by geots Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:34 am
Edsel Apostol wrote: Thanks George. Looking forward to see the Critter/Boquet match-up.
And congrats to yours and Sam's victory. Earned and well-deserved. I wanted to say that I am man enough to admit that Hannibal will always and forever be a sentimental favorite of mine. I had a 17 year old Siberian Husky that was just old and worn out- but he had had a good life. He was my best friend. And the last act of kindness that I could do for him was let the vet put him to sleep so he would no longer suffer the terrible pain. It doesn't bother me at all to admit that every time I load Hannibal to play, a tear rolls down my cheek. Maybe it always will.
Again, best to you and Sam-
george
