Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[Chessqueen]

So what happened in this game? GM Hans played like a 2755 with Black, without using any engine?

[pgn][Event "USA Championship 2022"]
[Site "Saint Louis"]
[Date "2022.10.13"]
[Round "8.6"]
[White "Aronian, Levon"]
[Black "Niemann, Hans Moke"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "2699"]
[ECO "C58"]
[Opening "Two Knights"]
[Variation "Morphy, Polerio, 6...c6"]
[WhiteElo "2755"]
[TimeControl "0+5"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "114"]
[WhiteType "human"]
[BlackType "human"]

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 Nf6 4. Ng5 d5 5. exd5 Na5 6. Bb5+ c6 7. dxc6
bxc6 8. Bd3 $1 Nd5 9. Nf3 {Weaker is} (9. Qh5 g6 10. Nxf7 gxh5 {$0 $17}) 9.
.. Bd6 10. O-O Nf4 11. Nc3 {is now debated instead of 11.Re1.} Nxd3 12.
cxd3 O-O 13. b3 c5 (13. .. f6 {$0 $11}) 14. Ba3 Ba6 15. Re1 Re8 {[#]} 16.
Re3 {$0 $146} {Predecessor:} (16. Ne4 Bxd3 17. Nxd6 Qxd6 18. Rc1 Nb7 19.
Re3 Rad8 20. Ne1 Bb5 21. Rec3 Qxd2 22. Qxd2 Rxd2 23. Bxc5 Rxa2 {0-1 (56)
Lei,T (2535)-Vidit,S (2723) chess24.com INT 2022}) 16. .. Rc8 17. Ne4 Bf8
$1 18. Rc1 Nb7 19. Ne1 Bb5 (19. .. f5 $5 20. Nc3 $8 g6 {$0 $11}) 20. Bb2
Nd6 21. Nxd6 {But not} (21. Rxc5 21. .. Rxc5 22. Nxc5 Nf5 {$0 $17}) ({Much
weaker is} 21. Nxc5 21. .. Nf5 22. b4 Nxe3 23. dxe3 a5 {$0 $15}) (21. a4
{$0 $11} Bd7 22. Nf3 (22. Nxc5 22. .. Nf5 {$0 $15}) (22. Rxc5 Rxc5 23. Nxc5
Nf5 {$0 $15})) 21. .. Qxd6 22. Rc3 $1 g6 23. Rc1 f6 24. Qc2 Red8 25. Rh3
Bd7 26. Rh4 $1 Bb5 27. Rh3 Kg7 28. Re3 Qd5 29. Qc3 Rd6 30. Re4 (30. g4 {$0
$11}) 30. .. g5 31. h4 h6 32. hxg5 hxg5 33. Rg4 Kf7 34. d4 exd4 {[#]} 35.
Rxd4 $1 Qxd4 36. Qxd4 Rxd4 37. Bxd4 a5 38. Bc3 a4 39. bxa4 Bxa4 40. Rb1 Ra8
41. Rb7+ Kg6 42. Rb6 Be7 $1 43. Nd3 Kf7 44. Rb7 Ke6 45. f4 c4 46. f5+ Kxf5
47. Rxe7 cxd3 48. Re3 Bc2 49. Rf3+ Kg4 50. Rxf6 Rxa2 51. Kf2 Ra4 52. Rf3
Rf4 53. Rxf4+ gxf4 54. Bb2 Bb1 55. Bc3 Bc2 56. Bb2 Bb1 57. Bc3 Bc2 {$0 $11}
1/2-1/2[/pgn]

[lkaufman]

So what happened in this game? GM Hans played like a 2755 with Black, without using any engine?

[pgn][Event "USA Championship 2022"]
[Site "Saint Louis"]
[Date "2022.10.13"]
[Round "8.6"]
[White "Aronian, Levon"]
[Black "Niemann, Hans Moke"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "2699"]
[ECO "C58"]
[Opening "Two Knights"]
[Variation "Morphy, Polerio, 6...c6"]
[WhiteElo "2755"]
[TimeControl "0+5"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "114"]
[WhiteType "human"]
[BlackType "human"]

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 Nf6 4. Ng5 d5 5. exd5 Na5 6. Bb5+ c6 7. dxc6
bxc6 8. Bd3 $1 Nd5 9. Nf3 {Weaker is} (9. Qh5 g6 10. Nxf7 gxh5 {$0 $17}) 9.
.. Bd6 10. O-O Nf4 11. Nc3 {is now debated instead of 11.Re1.} Nxd3 12.
cxd3 O-O 13. b3 c5 (13. .. f6 {$0 $11}) 14. Ba3 Ba6 15. Re1 Re8 {[#]} 16.
Re3 {$0 $146} {Predecessor:} (16. Ne4 Bxd3 17. Nxd6 Qxd6 18. Rc1 Nb7 19.
Re3 Rad8 20. Ne1 Bb5 21. Rec3 Qxd2 22. Qxd2 Rxd2 23. Bxc5 Rxa2 {0-1 (56)
Lei,T (2535)-Vidit,S (2723) chess24.com INT 2022}) 16. .. Rc8 17. Ne4 Bf8
$1 18. Rc1 Nb7 19. Ne1 Bb5 (19. .. f5 $5 20. Nc3 $8 g6 {$0 $11}) 20. Bb2
Nd6 21. Nxd6 {But not} (21. Rxc5 21. .. Rxc5 22. Nxc5 Nf5 {$0 $17}) ({Much
weaker is} 21. Nxc5 21. .. Nf5 22. b4 Nxe3 23. dxe3 a5 {$0 $15}) (21. a4
{$0 $11} Bd7 22. Nf3 (22. Nxc5 22. .. Nf5 {$0 $15}) (22. Rxc5 Rxc5 23. Nxc5
Nf5 {$0 $15})) 21. .. Qxd6 22. Rc3 $1 g6 23. Rc1 f6 24. Qc2 Red8 25. Rh3
Bd7 26. Rh4 $1 Bb5 27. Rh3 Kg7 28. Re3 Qd5 29. Qc3 Rd6 30. Re4 (30. g4 {$0
$11}) 30. .. g5 31. h4 h6 32. hxg5 hxg5 33. Rg4 Kf7 34. d4 exd4 {[#]} 35.
Rxd4 $1 Qxd4 36. Qxd4 Rxd4 37. Bxd4 a5 38. Bc3 a4 39. bxa4 Bxa4 40. Rb1 Ra8
41. Rb7+ Kg6 42. Rb6 Be7 $1 43. Nd3 Kf7 44. Rb7 Ke6 45. f4 c4 46. f5+ Kxf5
47. Rxe7 cxd3 48. Re3 Bc2 49. Rf3+ Kg4 50. Rxf6 Rxa2 51. Kf2 Ra4 52. Rf3
Rf4 53. Rxf4+ gxf4 54. Bb2 Bb1 55. Bc3 Bc2 56. Bb2 Bb1 57. Bc3 Bc2 {$0 $11}
1/2-1/2[/pgn]

Niemann has performed at least close to 2600 level in his 14 OTB games with broadcast delay, so he is probably close to that strength even if cheating got him to 2700 (note I said "if"). It is not unusual for a 2600 player to perform anywhere from 2400 to 2800 in a given game. In fact, in a U.S. Amateur Team Championship about 6 years ago. I performed over 2800 (USCF) over six games at a time when my (USCF) rating was below 2400, and I was already in my late 60s! No one plays at a constant level every game.

[Alexander Schmidt]

Niemann has performed at least close to 2600 level in his 14 OTB games with broadcast delay, so he is probably close to that strength even if cheating got him to 2700 (note I said "if").

As computerchess enthusiasts we know, 14 games say nothing

And we should also consider, that this whole story likely influences both parties and their games somehow, Niemann and his opponents. So everything between 2400 and 2800 is possible, just judging those 14 games. Also, independent from Niemann, we should not ignore the possibility of ways to cheat with broadcast delay.

[M ANSARI]

I really doubt anything conclusive will come out for at least another couple of years. What is certain though is that cheating OTB is being taken a lot more seriously now and it will be a lot more difficult to get away with OTB cheating. I do think that the broadcast delay is a major roadblock to anyone who wants to cheat, if they are also checking and making sure no wireless transmission is possible. It is still physically very difficult to make a strong chess computer that is so minute that it cannot be detected by metal or electronic detectors. Even today you still need a pretty powerful CPU to run an engine at say 3000 ELO. I guess for database access and maybe 6 piece EGTB's it is still possible to use a micro computer without a powerful CPU but I am not sure that this is enough to get you more than 50 ELO points advantage.

[Chessqueen]

I really doubt anything conclusive will come out for at least another couple of years. What is certain though is that cheating OTB is being taken a lot more seriously now and it will be a lot more difficult to get away with OTB cheating. I do think that the broadcast delay is a major roadblock to anyone who wants to cheat, if they are also checking and making sure no wireless transmission is possible. It is still physically very difficult to make a strong chess computer that is so minute that it cannot be detected by metal or electronic detectors. Even today you still need a pretty powerful CPU to run an engine at say 3000 ELO. I guess for database access and maybe 6 piece EGTB's it is still possible to use a micro computer without a powerful CPU but I am not sure that this is enough to get you more than 50 ELO points advantage.

Either GM Hans used a cheating device against GM Aronian or NOT in yesterday game he reached 2700, just like Robson==>

[M ANSARI]

Well this is worrying! I had hoped current anti cheating protocols are strong enough, but apparently still more needs to be done to improve things.

[AdminX]

Well this is worrying! I had hoped current anti cheating protocols are strong enough, but apparently still more needs to be done to improve things.

Can't say he was full of Baloney!

[lkaufman]

Niemann has performed at least close to 2600 level in his 14 OTB games with broadcast delay, so he is probably close to that strength even if cheating got him to 2700 (note I said "if").

As computerchess enthusiasts we know, 14 games say nothing

And we should also consider, that this whole story likely influences both parties and their games somehow, Niemann and his opponents. So everything between 2400 and 2800 is possible, just judging those 14 games. Also, independent from Niemann, we should not ignore the possibility of ways to cheat with broadcast delay.

Well, 14 games isn't "nothing", it has a standard deviation of something like 40 elo or so I think (depending on details of opposition) so probably 2600 means between 2560 and 2640 (almost certainly between 2520 and 2680). Yes, there is some impact of the story on results, though it could be in either direction and is probably not large; in my experience chess strength dominates over factors like fatigue, health, attitude, etc. over a series of games. The totality of the anti-cheating measures at the U.S. Championship make it very unlikely that anyone would even try to cheat and expect to get away with it, in my opinion. Maybe in the future someone could make a device that would be undetectable, but with no advance warning of the specific measures I doubt that happened.

[CornfedForever]

Niemann has performed at least close to 2600 level in his 14 OTB games with broadcast delay, so he is probably close to that strength even if cheating got him to 2700 (note I said "if").

As computerchess enthusiasts we know, 14 games say nothing

And we should also consider, that this whole story likely influences both parties and their games somehow, Niemann and his opponents. So everything between 2400 and 2800 is possible, just judging those 14 games. Also, independent from Niemann, we should not ignore the possibility of ways to cheat with broadcast delay.

Well, 14 games isn't "nothing", it has a standard deviation of something like 40 elo or so I think (depending on details of opposition) so probably 2600 means between 2560 and 2640 (almost certainly between 2520 and 2680). Yes, there is some impact of the story on results, though it could be in either direction and is probably not large; in my experience chess strength dominates over factors like fatigue, health, attitude, etc. over a series of games. The totality of the anti-cheating measures at the U.S. Championship make it very unlikely that anyone would even try to cheat and expect to get away with it, in my opinion. Maybe in the future someone could make a device that would be undetectable, but with no advance warning of the specific measures I doubt that happened.

As you mention 14 games...and the current US Championship is 13 rounds...it would be interesting to see a 'strength' report of this nature after the tournament for those like Aronian Lenderman and So who (at this point) are not doing so well. One needs something to bounce Han's numbers off in comparison and what better than an 'all play all' tourney to do so to look for some measure of 'significance'?

[Chessqueen]

Niemann has performed at least close to 2600 level in his 14 OTB games with broadcast delay, so he is probably close to that strength even if cheating got him to 2700 (note I said "if").

As computerchess enthusiasts we know, 14 games say nothing

And we should also consider, that this whole story likely influences both parties and their games somehow, Niemann and his opponents. So everything between 2400 and 2800 is possible, just judging those 14 games. Also, independent from Niemann, we should not ignore the possibility of ways to cheat with broadcast delay.

Well, 14 games isn't "nothing", it has a standard deviation of something like 40 elo or so I think (depending on details of opposition) so probably 2600 means between 2560 and 2640 (almost certainly between 2520 and 2680). Yes, there is some impact of the story on results, though it could be in either direction and is probably not large; in my experience chess strength dominates over factors like fatigue, health, attitude, etc. over a series of games. The totality of the anti-cheating measures at the U.S. Championship make it very unlikely that anyone would even try to cheat and expect to get away with it, in my opinion. Maybe in the future someone could make a device that would be undetectable, but with no advance warning of the specific measures I doubt that happened.

As you mention 14 games...and the current US Championship is 13 rounds...it would be interesting to see a 'strength' report of this nature after the tournament for those like Aronian Lenderman and So who (at this point) are not doing so well. One needs something to bounce Han's numbers off in comparison and what better than an 'all play all' tourney to do so to look for some measure of 'significance'?

Well Well Carlsen almost lost to this player from India rated only 2569, but why Carlsen did NOT accused him of cheating like in the case of GM Hans, that explain that nobody is unbeatable and the mere fact that Carlsen is rated almost 300 rating points higher does not make Carlsen invincible. I believe that Young GM Gukesh will give Carlsen a hard time too