Further weaknesses

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

looking at the game I never saw more than +2 for white when in the analysis I saw even scores near +3 pawns for white and this is the reason that I believe white is winning.

Looking at the game I will try to find the losing mistake for white
Note that black's moves also were not optimal so practically the lines that stockfish needs to search are shorter.

first analysis suggests that

61...Ba3 was winning for black instead of 61...Rd5+ that is slower

I also can say that after 58...d2 black had at least a draw and probably the mistake of white was earlier.

Note that old stockfish did a mistake by giving a bonus for the a4 b4 pawns and the last change is not to give a bonus for protected passed pawns or 2 connected passed pawns in the same file.

I will check if 61.Kf3 could save the game or no.

Very interesting. So this was the supporting pawns issue. You never know what works and what does not, and at what time control.
I think the white score rises mainly because the queen gets very mobile, but that mobility is not very helpful in this particular ending. The black pieces are much less mobile, but the central pawns are threatening.

I do not intend to analyse the position myself, but would appreciate any deeper output. Could you also post some diagrams of critical positions to make sense what is going on?

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

Against my will, I looked at some lines.

I think the best move on 49.Qe4 is 49...d5

[d]8/8/4pk1p/3p2r1/3pQ3/P3b1PK/1P5P/8 w - - 0 50

and on 49.Qa6, as Oliver suggested, 49...Rf5

[d]8/8/Q2ppk1p/5r2/3p4/P3b1PK/1P5P/8 w - - 0 50

I see everywhere black advantage, but probably am again missing something, I am not a machine after all.

In the first line on 50.Qd3 or 50.Qb1 black plays e5, aiming at e4, on 50.Qc2, which is probably best, 50...Rf5 51.Kg2 d3 52.Qd3 Rf2 53.Kh3 d4

[d]8/8/4pk1p/8/3p4/P2Qb1PK/1P3r1P/8 w - - 0 54

In the second line the idea is to play Rf2-Rd2 and d3, or h5 and Bg1 with mating motives.

[Uri Blass]

In the first line after 49.Qe4 d5 50.Qc2 Rf5 white replies 51.b4 with a winning advantage(more than 4 pawns based on stockfish at depth 33 when the score is increasing with bigger depth )

In this line the passed pawns of white are more dangerous than the passed pawns of black.

Edit in the second line mating net does not work

for example
49.Qa6 Rf5 50.b4 Rf2 51.a4 Rd2 52.Qxd6 h5 53.b5 and there is no Bg1 because of Qf4+

[Uri Blass]

looking at the game I never saw more than +2 for white when in the analysis I saw even scores near +3 pawns for white and this is the reason that I believe white is winning.

Looking at the game I will try to find the losing mistake for white
Note that black's moves also were not optimal so practically the lines that stockfish needs to search are shorter.

first analysis suggests that

61...Ba3 was winning for black instead of 61...Rd5+ that is slower

I also can say that after 58...d2 black had at least a draw and probably the mistake of white was earlier.

Note that old stockfish did a mistake by giving a bonus for the a4 b4 pawns and the last change is not to give a bonus for protected passed pawns or 2 connected passed pawns in the same file.

I will check if 61.Kf3 could save the game or no.

Very interesting. So this was the supporting pawns issue. You never know what works and what does not, and at what time control.
I think the white score rises mainly because the queen gets very mobile, but that mobility is not very helpful in this particular ending. The black pieces are much less mobile, but the central pawns are threatening.

I do not intend to analyse the position myself, but would appreciate any deeper output. Could you also post some diagrams of critical positions to make sense what is going on?

white could easily get a draw in the game in many cases

Here is one example

[D]5Q2/8/3pp2p/3rk3/1P6/P2p2P1/6KP/2b5 w - - 2 55

White played 55.Qf1 that may be also enough to draw but the simplest way to force a draw is
55.Qg7+ Ke4(55...Kf5 56.Kf3 h5 57.h3 wins for white) 56.Qg4+ Ke5(56...Ke3 57.Qxe6+ win for white because if 57...Kd4 58.Kf3 and if
57...Re5 58.Qxh6+ Ke2 59.Qxc1 and d2 does not work because of 60.Qc4+ with the idea Ke1 Qf1 mate or Kd1 Kf2) 57.Qg7+ with a perpetual check

I am not sure if 57.Qg7+ is the best in this line and stockfish prefers 57.b5
at depth 30 after a short time

probably the last chance for a draw was in move 61

[D]8/b3k3/3pp2p/4r3/PP6/6P1/3pK2P/3Q4 w - - 4 61

It seems based on stockfish that 61.Kf3 is enough for a draw when 61.Kd3 is losing.

Note that I am not sure about it and I may be wrong.
Stockfish may be wrong by 0.5 point after many minutes but I feel sure that it is not wrong by a full point after long analysis.

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

In the first line after 49.Qe4 d5 50.Qc2 Rf5 white replies 51.b4 with a winning advantage(more than 4 pawns based on stockfish at depth 33 when the score is increasing with bigger depth )

In this line the passed pawns of white are more dangerous than the passed pawns of black.

Edit in the second line mating net does not work

for example
49.Qa6 Rf5 50.b4 Rf2 51.a4 Rd2 52.Qxd6 h5 53.b5 and there is no Bg1 because of Qf4+

So what is your main line then?

In the first line, on 51.b4, black plays 51...Rf2 52.Qb3 h5 53. b5 d3 54.Qd3 d4

[d]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

Who is better now? Is this a 4 pawns winning advantage?

In the second line, of course, on 51.a4, black plays 51...h5

[d]8/8/Q2ppk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 52

[Uri Blass]

In the first line stockfish suggests 52.Qb1 and not 52.Qb3 but
at the end of your line 55.Qb1 wins

[D]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

stockfish give it evaluation of more than +9 pawns in a few minutes

After 52.Qb3 stockfish suggest 52...Rd2 53.Qb1 d3 54.b5 with evaluation of more than 3.5 pawns for white so I guess 52.Qb3 is winning for white.

In the second line after 51.a4 h5 52.Qxd6
white is winning by more than 4 pawns.

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 b - - 0 52

If black replies 52...Re2 53.b5 Bg1 54.g4 black has no mate and white wins

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P5p/P2p2P1/7K/4r2P/6b1 b - - 0 54

for example
54...Rxh2+ 55.Kg3 h4+ 56.Kf4 Rf2+ 57.Ke4 Re2+ 58.Kd3 Re3+ 59.Kc4

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P6/P1Kp2Pp/4r3/8/6b1 b - - 7 59

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

In the first line stockfish suggests 52.Qb1 and not 52.Qb3 but
at the end of your line 55.Qb1 wins

[D]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

stockfish give it evaluation of more than +9 pawns in a few minutes

After 52.Qb3 stockfish suggest 52...Rd2 53.Qb1 d3 54.b5 with evaluation of more than 3.5 pawns for white so I guess 52.Qb3 is winning for white.

In the second line after 51.a4 h5 52.Qxd6
white is winning by more than 4 pawns.

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 b - - 0 52

If black replies 52...Re2 53.b5 Bg1 54.g4 black has no mate and white wins

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P5p/P2p2P1/7K/4r2P/6b1 b - - 0 54

for example
54...Rxh2+ 55.Kg3 h4+ 56.Kf4 Rf2+ 57.Ke4 Re2+ 58.Kd3 Re3+ 59.Kc4

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P6/P1Kp2Pp/4r3/8/6b1 b - - 7 59

None of your posted positions is very clear for me, I am not a machine to compute all lines after all. I think everywhere the balance could swing both ways.

OK, so your main line would be 52.Qb1. I would suggest the following continuation: 52...e5 53.b5 d3 54.Qd3 d4
55.Qb1 Rd2 56.b6 d3 57.b7 Ba7 58.b8Q Bb8 59.Qb8 Kf5

[d]1Q6/8/7p/4pk2/8/P2p2PK/3r3P/8 w - - 0 60
Who is winning now?

[Uri Blass]

In the first line stockfish suggests 52.Qb1 and not 52.Qb3 but
at the end of your line 55.Qb1 wins

[D]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

stockfish give it evaluation of more than +9 pawns in a few minutes

After 52.Qb3 stockfish suggest 52...Rd2 53.Qb1 d3 54.b5 with evaluation of more than 3.5 pawns for white so I guess 52.Qb3 is winning for white.

In the second line after 51.a4 h5 52.Qxd6
white is winning by more than 4 pawns.

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 b - - 0 52

If black replies 52...Re2 53.b5 Bg1 54.g4 black has no mate and white wins

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P5p/P2p2P1/7K/4r2P/6b1 b - - 0 54

for example
54...Rxh2+ 55.Kg3 h4+ 56.Kf4 Rf2+ 57.Ke4 Re2+ 58.Kd3 Re3+ 59.Kc4

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P6/P1Kp2Pp/4r3/8/6b1 b - - 7 59

None of your posted positions is very clear for me, I am not a machine to compute all lines after all. I think everywhere the balance could swing both ways.

OK, so your main line would be 52.Qb1. I would suggest the following continuation: 52...e5 53.b5 d3 54.Qd3 d4
55.Qb1 Rd2 56.b6 d3 57.b7 Ba7 58.b8Q Bb8 59.Qb8 Kf5

[d]1Q6/8/7p/4pk2/8/P2p2PK/3r3P/8 w - - 0 60
Who is winning now?

In the diagram white is winning

60.Qb4 with the idea Qg4+ and Qf3+ to win the pawn d3
black cannot prevent it.

60.Qb4 Rf2 61.Qf8+ and 62.Qxf2
60.Qb4 Rd1 61.Qg4+ and 62.Qxd1

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

In the first line stockfish suggests 52.Qb1 and not 52.Qb3 but
at the end of your line 55.Qb1 wins

[D]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

stockfish give it evaluation of more than +9 pawns in a few minutes

After 52.Qb3 stockfish suggest 52...Rd2 53.Qb1 d3 54.b5 with evaluation of more than 3.5 pawns for white so I guess 52.Qb3 is winning for white.

In the second line after 51.a4 h5 52.Qxd6
white is winning by more than 4 pawns.

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 b - - 0 52

If black replies 52...Re2 53.b5 Bg1 54.g4 black has no mate and white wins

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P5p/P2p2P1/7K/4r2P/6b1 b - - 0 54

for example
54...Rxh2+ 55.Kg3 h4+ 56.Kf4 Rf2+ 57.Ke4 Re2+ 58.Kd3 Re3+ 59.Kc4

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P6/P1Kp2Pp/4r3/8/6b1 b - - 7 59

None of your posted positions is very clear for me, I am not a machine to compute all lines after all. I think everywhere the balance could swing both ways.

OK, so your main line would be 52.Qb1. I would suggest the following continuation: 52...e5 53.b5 d3 54.Qd3 d4
55.Qb1 Rd2 56.b6 d3 57.b7 Ba7 58.b8Q Bb8 59.Qb8 Kf5

[d]1Q6/8/7p/4pk2/8/P2p2PK/3r3P/8 w - - 0 60
Who is winning now?

In the diagram white is winning

60.Qb4 with the idea Qg4+ and Qf3+ to win the pawn d3
black cannot prevent it.

60.Qb4 Rf2 61.Qf8+ and 62.Qxf2
60.Qb4 Rd1 61.Qg4+ and 62.Qxd1

OK, complicated.
Humans need more time in open positions.

I now try 49...Rc5
The position starts getting interesting for me, I will win this.

[d]8/8/3ppk1p/2r5/3pQ3/P3b1PK/1P5P/8 w - - 0 50

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

In the first line stockfish suggests 52.Qb1 and not 52.Qb3 but
at the end of your line 55.Qb1 wins

[D]8/8/4pk2/1P5p/3p4/P2Qb1PK/5r1P/8 w - - 0 55

stockfish give it evaluation of more than +9 pawns in a few minutes

After 52.Qb3 stockfish suggest 52...Rd2 53.Qb1 d3 54.b5 with evaluation of more than 3.5 pawns for white so I guess 52.Qb3 is winning for white.

In the second line after 51.a4 h5 52.Qxd6
white is winning by more than 4 pawns.

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/7p/PP1p4/4b1PK/5r1P/8 b - - 0 52

If black replies 52...Re2 53.b5 Bg1 54.g4 black has no mate and white wins

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P5p/P2p2P1/7K/4r2P/6b1 b - - 0 54

for example
54...Rxh2+ 55.Kg3 h4+ 56.Kf4 Rf2+ 57.Ke4 Re2+ 58.Kd3 Re3+ 59.Kc4

[D]8/8/3Qpk2/1P6/P1Kp2Pp/4r3/8/6b1 b - - 7 59

None of your posted positions is very clear for me, I am not a machine to compute all lines after all. I think everywhere the balance could swing both ways.

OK, so your main line would be 52.Qb1. I would suggest the following continuation: 52...e5 53.b5 d3 54.Qd3 d4
55.Qb1 Rd2 56.b6 d3 57.b7 Ba7 58.b8Q Bb8 59.Qb8 Kf5

[d]1Q6/8/7p/4pk2/8/P2p2PK/3r3P/8 w - - 0 60
Who is winning now?

In the diagram white is winning

60.Qb4 with the idea Qg4+ and Qf3+ to win the pawn d3
black cannot prevent it.

60.Qb4 Rf2 61.Qf8+ and 62.Qxf2
60.Qb4 Rd1 61.Qg4+ and 62.Qxd1

OK, complicated.
Humans need more time in open positions.

I now try 49...Rc5
The position starts getting interesting for me, I will win this.

[d]8/8/3ppk1p/2r5/3pQ3/P3b1PK/1P5P/8 w - - 0 50

OK, after 49...Rc5, I see the following line: 50.b4 Rc3 51.b5 Rb3 52.Qf3 Ke7 53.Qb7 Kf6 54.b6 d5 55. Qc7 d3 56.b7 Ba7

[d]8/bPQ5/4pk1p/3p4/8/Pr1p2PK/7P/8 w - - 0 57

Any suggestions to improve on that line?