Can Komodo Dragon beat Nakamura 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes ?

[Chessqueen]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

[lkaufman]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

[Chessqueen]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 10 10 sec increment.

[Chessqueen]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

[lkaufman]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

You must be unaware of the history of Komodo matches to suggest this. From 2016 thru 2019 Komodo (pre NNUE/Dragon) played many matches with GMs giving two White pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15", slower than what you suggest, and made a big plus score (about half draws, but far more wins than losses, if any at all). Some were against 2600+ GMs. So 2500 GMs would be huge underdogs vs Dragon, though they would get some draws. But of course Nakamura is in another class entirely, so I agree that at 30' + 10" a two White pawn odds match would be close, but I would bet a lot of money on Dragon in the match (tied match no one wins the bet) outside of any prize money involved. If he has said that he would like to play such a match, let me know. But with two Black pawn odds, especially including f7 and excluding a7, it's another story entirely. Just giving f7 odds is substantial, and with a second Black pawn removed it's a very large handicap, though still below knight odds.

By the way I have played enough private games with Dragon giving knight odds to GMs to say that at the time control of 5' + 3", Dragon performs about 2600 FIDE level (with the rule of no repeat first move vs. 1e4 at a given handicap until four games have been played that way). But this obviously drops pretty sharply with increasing time limits.

[Chessqueen]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

You must be unaware of the history of Komodo matches to suggest this. From 2016 thru 2019 Komodo (pre NNUE/Dragon) played many matches with GMs giving two White pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15", slower than what you suggest, and made a big plus score (about half draws, but far more wins than losses, if any at all). Some were against 2600+ GMs. So 2500 GMs would be huge underdogs vs Dragon, though they would get some draws. But of course Nakamura is in another class entirely, so I agree that at 30' + 10" a two White pawn odds match would be close, but I would bet a lot of money on Dragon in the match (tied match no one wins the bet) outside of any prize money involved. If he has said that he would like to play such a match, let me know. But with two Black pawn odds, especially including f7 and excluding a7, it's another story entirely. Just giving f7 odds is substantial, and with a second Black pawn removed it's a very large handicap, though still below knight odds.

By the way I have played enough private games with Dragon giving knight odds to GMs to say that at the time control of 5' + 3", Dragon performs about 2600 FIDE level (with the rule of no repeat first move vs. 1e4 at a given handicap until four games have been played that way). But this obviously drops pretty sharply with increasing time limits.

I see, so the only challenge left is either to Challenge Elite top GM Like Nakamura at giving two White or two Black pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 30' + 10" .

[lkaufman]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

You must be unaware of the history of Komodo matches to suggest this. From 2016 thru 2019 Komodo (pre NNUE/Dragon) played many matches with GMs giving two White pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15", slower than what you suggest, and made a big plus score (about half draws, but far more wins than losses, if any at all). Some were against 2600+ GMs. So 2500 GMs would be huge underdogs vs Dragon, though they would get some draws. But of course Nakamura is in another class entirely, so I agree that at 30' + 10" a two White pawn odds match would be close, but I would bet a lot of money on Dragon in the match (tied match no one wins the bet) outside of any prize money involved. If he has said that he would like to play such a match, let me know. But with two Black pawn odds, especially including f7 and excluding a7, it's another story entirely. Just giving f7 odds is substantial, and with a second Black pawn removed it's a very large handicap, though still below knight odds.

By the way I have played enough private games with Dragon giving knight odds to GMs to say that at the time control of 5' + 3", Dragon performs about 2600 FIDE level (with the rule of no repeat first move vs. 1e4 at a given handicap until four games have been played that way). But this obviously drops pretty sharply with increasing time limits.

I see, so the only challenge left is either to Challenge Elite top GM Like Nakamura at giving two White or two Black pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15 .

If it's two Black pawns (including f7), even 15' + 10" should be enough for Naka or another FIDE Rapid 2800 player to win the match, but with White pawns 45' + 15" sounds about fair for such players.

[Chessqueen]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

You must be unaware of the history of Komodo matches to suggest this. From 2016 thru 2019 Komodo (pre NNUE/Dragon) played many matches with GMs giving two White pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15", slower than what you suggest, and made a big plus score (about half draws, but far more wins than losses, if any at all). Some were against 2600+ GMs. So 2500 GMs would be huge underdogs vs Dragon, though they would get some draws. But of course Nakamura is in another class entirely, so I agree that at 30' + 10" a two White pawn odds match would be close, but I would bet a lot of money on Dragon in the match (tied match no one wins the bet) outside of any prize money involved. If he has said that he would like to play such a match, let me know. But with two Black pawn odds, especially including f7 and excluding a7, it's another story entirely. Just giving f7 odds is substantial, and with a second Black pawn removed it's a very large handicap, though still below knight odds.

By the way I have played enough private games with Dragon giving knight odds to GMs to say that at the time control of 5' + 3", Dragon performs about 2600 FIDE level (with the rule of no repeat first move vs. 1e4 at a given handicap until four games have been played that way). But this obviously drops pretty sharply with increasing time limits.

I see, so the only challenge left is either to Challenge Elite top GM Like Nakamura at giving two White or two Black pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15 .

If it's two Black pawns (including f7), even 15' + 10" should be enough for Naka or another FIDE Rapid 2800 player to win the match, but with White pawns 45' + 15" sounds about fair for such players.

If playing White instead of with the Black side is worth 30 minutes for Komodo, in human vs human game the human playing with Black pieces should have an extra 30 Minutes in standard or classical chess

[lkaufman]

What is the possibility of Komodo Dragon 2.6.x at beating Nakamura, or Carlsen with 2 pawns Odds at 30 Minutes, this was at 15 Minutes

I believe that with 30' + 10" instead of 15' + 10" Naka would do better, but since he lost by 6.5 to 1.5 it is hard to believe that this extra time would be enough for him to equalize the chances (maybe enough for Carlsen, but he doesn't play computers publicly). Far more significant than clock time is the first move; two Black pawns off (including f7 and not a7) should be about halfway between two White pawns and knight odds. Those odds might be about right for a strong grandmaster (but not an "Elite" GM) in Rapid. We might test this in the near future.

Like GM Nakamura usually say with 2 Juicers Odds and 15 minutes extra there is a lot that he can calculate and analyze that he does NOT have enough time to do in Just 15 Minutes 15 10 sec increment.

Note: I favor GM Nakamura in 2 pawn Odds at 30' + 10 , but before that match against GM Nakamura, probably GM Finegold or GM Smerdon should have a chance at T/C of 45 Minutes plus 5 seconds increment.

You must be unaware of the history of Komodo matches to suggest this. From 2016 thru 2019 Komodo (pre NNUE/Dragon) played many matches with GMs giving two White pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15", slower than what you suggest, and made a big plus score (about half draws, but far more wins than losses, if any at all). Some were against 2600+ GMs. So 2500 GMs would be huge underdogs vs Dragon, though they would get some draws. But of course Nakamura is in another class entirely, so I agree that at 30' + 10" a two White pawn odds match would be close, but I would bet a lot of money on Dragon in the match (tied match no one wins the bet) outside of any prize money involved. If he has said that he would like to play such a match, let me know. But with two Black pawn odds, especially including f7 and excluding a7, it's another story entirely. Just giving f7 odds is substantial, and with a second Black pawn removed it's a very large handicap, though still below knight odds.

By the way I have played enough private games with Dragon giving knight odds to GMs to say that at the time control of 5' + 3", Dragon performs about 2600 FIDE level (with the rule of no repeat first move vs. 1e4 at a given handicap until four games have been played that way). But this obviously drops pretty sharply with increasing time limits.

I see, so the only challenge left is either to Challenge Elite top GM Like Nakamura at giving two White or two Black pawns (non-edge pawns!) at 45' + 15 .

If it's two Black pawns (including f7), even 15' + 10" should be enough for Naka or another FIDE Rapid 2800 player to win the match, but with White pawns 45' + 15" sounds about fair for such players.

If playing White instead of with the Black side is worth 30 minutes for Komodo, in human vs human game the human playing with Black pieces should have an extra 30 Minutes in standard or classical chess

Yes, that would make the game roughly fair; in fact something like that has been tried in tournaments. Also in recent top tournament tiebreak games were 3' for Black and 2.5' for White. So this is not a novel idea. The objection would just be that maybe it's not desirable to equalize the chances of White and Black in a tournament, maybe you would just get a lot more draws that way.