Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

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Which engine is more likely to surpass Stockfish in the future?

1.LeelaChessZero
11
20%
2.Komodo Dragon
15
27%
3.Berserk
6
11%
4.Koivisto
2
4%
5.Ethereal
6
11%
6.Revenge
2
4%
7.Stoofvlees
4
7%
8.Seer
2
4%
9.Slowchess
2
4%
10.ScorpioNN
2
4%
11.rofChade
1
2%
12.RubiChess
2
4%
 
Total votes: 55

swami
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Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by swami »

towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
What's the upper limit, exactly? 4000 elo?
Stockfish even with its best hardware still loses more games against other engines (Yes, it wins more but that is besides the point)
An ideal engine should, at minimum, draw.
Losing is a sign that there's a lot of room for development.
Chess is too deep indeed and the upper limit is unknown.
Uri Blass
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Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Uri Blass »

swami wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:03 am
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
What's the upper limit, exactly? 4000 elo?
Stockfish even with its best hardware still loses more games against other engines (Yes, it wins more but that is besides the point)
An ideal engine should, at minimum, draw.
Losing is a sign that there's a lot of room for development.
Chess is too deep indeed and the upper limit is unknown.
I would like to see the games stockfish lose at long time control when it does not use book and use the initial opening position.
Can you post them?
swami
Posts: 6634
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 4:21 am

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by swami »

Uri Blass wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:40 am
swami wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:03 am
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
What's the upper limit, exactly? 4000 elo?
Stockfish even with its best hardware still loses more games against other engines (Yes, it wins more but that is besides the point)
An ideal engine should, at minimum, draw.
Losing is a sign that there's a lot of room for development.
Chess is too deep indeed and the upper limit is unknown.
I would like to see the games stockfish lose at long time control when it does not use book and use the initial opening position.
Can you post them?
Though I don't have games with that specific condition you're asking for. (High end hardware, no opening book, long time control)
I was referring to the games Stockfish lost in events such as TCEC.

Image

And that's just against another engine. if you let Stockfish play another developmental version of itself which has minimal changes, I have a belief that it will not be a complete draw and there would be certain losses and that would signify weakness.
Chessqueen
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Full name: Jorge Picado

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Chessqueen »

Werewolf wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:36 pm
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
^^ This.
The Elo is Just a Number created by us to differentiate the strength of the Engines, but the Elo scale could have infinity number.................................................................................................................................................? :roll:
Forget about memorization of Opening Theories https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN3381sdcdY
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towforce
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Location: Birmingham UK

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by towforce »

Chessqueen wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:20 pm
Werewolf wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:36 pm
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
^^ This.
The Elo is Just a Number created by us to differentiate the strength of the Engines, but the Elo scale could have infinity number.................................................................................................................................................? :roll:

Not possible: chess is a finite game.
Writing is the antidote to confusion.
It's not "how smart you are", it's "how are you smart".
Your brain doesn't work the way you want, so train it!
Uri Blass
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Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Uri Blass »

swami wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:11 am
Uri Blass wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:40 am
swami wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:03 am
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
What's the upper limit, exactly? 4000 elo?
Stockfish even with its best hardware still loses more games against other engines (Yes, it wins more but that is besides the point)
An ideal engine should, at minimum, draw.
Losing is a sign that there's a lot of room for development.
Chess is too deep indeed and the upper limit is unknown.
I would like to see the games stockfish lose at long time control when it does not use book and use the initial opening position.
Can you post them?
Though I don't have games with that specific condition you're asking for. (High end hardware, no opening book, long time control)
I was referring to the games Stockfish lost in events such as TCEC.

Image

And that's just against another engine. if you let Stockfish play another developmental version of itself which has minimal changes, I have a belief that it will not be a complete draw and there would be certain losses and that would signify weakness.
TCEC is not games when they use the intial opening position.
They used a biased book.

I meant games from the initial position when stockfish chose all the moves of the loser.
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Rebel
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Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Rebel »

Uri Blass wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:03 pm
TCEC is not games when they use the intial opening position.
They used a biased book.
That's how TCEC survives.
I meant games from the initial position when stockfish chose all the moves of the loser.
90% of coding is debugging, the other 10% is writing bugs.
Uri Blass
Posts: 10098
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Uri Blass »

Rebel wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:26 pm
Uri Blass wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:03 pm
TCEC is not games when they use the intial opening position.
They used a biased book.
That's how TCEC survives.
I meant games from the initial position when stockfish chose all the moves of the loser.
correspondence ICCF chess also survives and I think it is a new record(never saw a tournament earlier with 13 players and 78 games and exactly 0 wins)

https://www.iccf.com/event?id=83284
Uri Blass
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Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Uri Blass »

I found a new record of a tournament with 100% draws.

I do not understand exactly what is the method of pairing and not everybody played everybody.

https://www.iccf.com/event?id=87633

There was prize money to the best 3 players if they achieve more than 50% but the task was too hard for them.
Chessqueen
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Re: Which engine will surpass Stockfish in the future

Post by Chessqueen »

towforce wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:59 pm
Chessqueen wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:20 pm
Werewolf wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:36 pm
towforce wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:06 am Where's the option for "SF will be the last engine to ever be the strongest one"?

IMO we will reach the upper limit of the elo scale before a stronger chess engine comes along.
^^ This.
The Elo is Just a Number created by us to differentiate the strength of the Engines, but the Elo scale could have infinity number.................................................................................................................................................? :roll:

Not possible: chess is a finite game.
But it will NOT be solved in your lifetime like Checker was, there are too many possible moves and combination that will require at least computer 50 times faster than Chinook, and endgame of at least 12 Pieces EGTB. as far as Chess Opening I trust more the openings that top engines can come out with instead of Opening created by human Players which are weaker than Top Engines. :roll:

Now Lets analyze how Top Engines create best chess opening variation, which is different form top GM.

Computer analysis is a bit different. You generally see one of two approaches happen--

1) No opening book at all. Most engines without an opening book will, depending on search depth, go for a really dry starting position (think 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 Bc5/ 1. d4 d5 2. Bf4 Nf6) etc. This approach actually isn't usually very helpful, because unless you run the analysis, per move, to a search depth they will find something that unusual, they will basically try to put their opponent to sleep.

2) The second approach is to combine computer analysis with an openings "database", preferably one updated by newly finished engine matches.
Forget about memorization of Opening Theories https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN3381sdcdY