2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

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Who is more likely to win the 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship?

Poll ended at Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:14 pm

Ding Liren
10
26%
Dommaraju Gukesh
29
74%
 
Total votes: 39

Dann Corbit
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Dann Corbit »

[d]3r3k/6p1/1bp2q1p/5p2/p1Q2B2/P5P1/1P2RPP1/6K1 b - - acd 52/97; acs 3599; acn 213702613k; ce 1080; bm Rd1+; pv Rd1+ Kh2 Qg6 g4 Rd4 Qe6 Qxe6 Rxe6 Rxf4 gxf5 Rxf5 f3 Bd4 Re8+ Kh7 Re2 c5 Kg3 Rf6 Rc2 Kg6 Kg4 Rb6 Rc4 Ra6 Rc2 Kf6 Kf4 Ke6 Ke4 Rb6 f4 Rxb2 f5+ Kd6 Rc4 Re2+ Kf3 Re3+ Kf4 Rxa3 Ke4 Re3+ Kf4 a3 Ra4 Kd5 Ra7 Rb3 f6 gxf6 Kf5 Be5 g4 Kd4 g5 hxg5 Ra8 Kd3 Ke6 Bd4 Ra6 c4 Kd6 c3 Ra4 Be5+ Kd5;
winning moves get missed a lot
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swami
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by swami »

Jouni wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 7:40 pm This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!
World Number 2, 3 and 4 couldn't qualify in the Candidates.
chesskobra
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by chesskobra »

I think the rankings do not mean too much. It is quite possible that once the match gets going, Ding will deliver under pressure. Ding is not likely to collapse like Nepo did against Carlsen. And recall some of his games against Nepo. No wonder some top players are not writing him off.

Also, it is not obvious that numbers 2, 3, 4 are clearly better than Gukesh? Arjun lost 2-3 crucial games in 2023 (and also at Chennai 2024), which is why he didn't qualify to candidates. Nakamura lost 2 games at the candidates to Vidit. Moreover, many candidates could not beat Abasov easily. And then recently we had Gukesh's games against Caruana and Wei Yi at the olympiad. How many among the top would have converted that endgame against Wei Yi?
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Ajedrecista
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship.

Post by Ajedrecista »

Hello:
chesskobra wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 11:29 am[...] And then recently we had Gukesh's games against Caruana and Wei Yi at the olympiad. How many among the top would have converted that endgame against Wei Yi?
Adding context to your post, here is the game:

https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2776016
https://lichess.org/broadcast/45th-ches ... b/fUvCEgoQ

[pgn][Site "Budapest HUN"]
[Date "2024.09.18"]
[EventDate "2024.09.11"]
[Round "7.1"]
[Result "1-0"]
[White "D Gukesh"]
[Black "Yi Wei"]
[ECO "B50"]
[WhiteElo "2764"]
[BlackElo "2762"]
[Source "Lichess"]
[PlyCount "160"]

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. Nc3 Nf6 4. Be2 e5 5. Bc4 Be7
6. d3 Nc6 7. Bg5 O-O 8. Bxf6 Bxf6 9. Nd5 Be6 10. Qd2 a6
11. O-O b5 12. Bb3 Kh8 13. a3 Rb8 14. h3 g6 15. c3 Bg7
16. Ba2 f5 17. Ng5 Bg8 18. exf5 gxf5 19. f4 c4 20. dxc4 bxc4
21. Bxc4 exf4 22. Nf3 Na5 23. Ba2 Nb3 24. Bxb3 Rxb3 25. Nxf4 Qb6+
26. Rf2 Rb8 27. Rd1 Rxb2 28. Qxb2 Qxb2 29. Rxb2 Rxb2 30. Rxd6 a5
31. Rd8 Bxc3 32. Nd5 Rb1+ 33. Kf2 Rd1 34. Rxg8+ Kxg8 35. Nxc3 Rc1
36. Nb5 Rc2+ 37. Kf1 Kf7 38. Nfd4 Rc1+ 39. Ke2 Kf6 40. Nd6 Rc3
41. N6b5 Rc1 42. Ke3 Rg1 43. Kf2 Rc1 44. Ne2 Rb1 45. Nbc3 Rb3
46. a4 Ke5 47. g3 Rb6 48. Ke3 Rb4 49. Kd3 h6 50. Ke3 Rb3
51. Kd3 Rb4 52. Ng1 Rb8 53. Nf3+ Kf6 54. Nd4 Rd8 55. Ke3 Rc8
56. Kd3 Rd8 57. Ne2 Rb8 58. Nf4 Rb1 59. Nd5+ Ke5 60. Nc3 Rh1
61. Nf3+ Kd6 62. h4 Rh3 63. Ne2 f4 64. Nfg1 Rh1 65. gxf4 Rxh4
66. Nf3 Rh1 67. f5 h5 68. Nc3 h4 69. Ne4+ Kd7 70. Ne5+ Kd8
71. f6 h3 72. f7 Rf1 73. Ng5 h2 74. Ngf3 Ke7 75. Nxh2 Ra1
76. Nhg4 Ra3+ 77. Kd2 Rxa4 78. Nh6 Ra2+ 79. Ke3 Ra3+ 80. Ke4 1-0[/pgn]

I do not know why 77.- Kd2 here is the only winning move, which by the way was played almost immediately by Gukesh according to Lichess clocks:

[d]8/4kP2/8/p3N3/P5N1/r2K4/8/8 w - - 3 77

All the possible moves look the same to my patzer eye. There are some comments at agadmator's video review of the game:
@DevajyotiChakraborty wrote:At 15:00 on Move 77 Kd2 was the only move, any other move loses as Gukesh needs to keep the king away from f2! Gukesh found so many "only moves" with a minute on the clock!
(The word 'loses' above shall be understood as either 'draws' or 'loses the winning path').
@_sayan_roy_ wrote:[...]

[...] the incredibly accurate in time pressure King d2 of Gukesh which was again incredibly hard to see and the only critically accurate move at that situation even though by that time he was winning. I mean, you touched on the latter but in your explanation even king c2 would have worked. Only d2 was the correct move there if you see all the things the rook could do.

[...]
There is other comment at Chessgames about why 76.- Nhg4 and not 76.- Nhf3:
metatron2 wrote:[...]

[...] And in that time trouble, I was mostly impressed by his 76. Nhg4! move. I was thinking there about Nhf3 with similar idea: protect f7 (with Ng5) intending Ng6+ and Queens. But apparently that is the wrong way to protect f7, since Black can then play Ra3+ Kd2 Rxa4 as in the game, but then he can play Rd4+ with Rd6 preventing that deadly Ng6+ move and its just a draw.

The point is that with the white N on h6 rather than on g5, <white has the Nf5+ fork> against Rd6..

I mean, putting the N on g5 seems more intuitive then putting it on h6 edge, so Gukesh actually saw all that with only few seconds on the clock! that's just mind boggling..
------------

Let us wait and see which openings will be played in this WCC.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.
Chris Formula
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Chris Formula »

Jouni
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Jouni »

Ding in big trouble? Used already 25 minutes for move 7 :? .
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towforce
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by towforce »

Chris Formula wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 2:27 pmGame 1 Stream:

I like the "below the table" camera angle: I can see Gukesh looking at the pieces, but his eyes aren't moving very much.
The simple reveals itself after the complex has been exhausted.
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towforce
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by towforce »

Jouni wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2024 10:31 am Ding in big trouble? Used already 25 minutes for move 7 :? .

This is the one thing I don't like about watching live chess - the time GMs sometimes take to think about a single move.

Ding might then be falling for Gukesh's modus operandi: get well ahead on time in a "normal" position, then start getting aggressive and unpredictable: the combination of time pressure and frightening moves causes opponents to weaken.
The simple reveals itself after the complex has been exhausted.
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towforce
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by towforce »

Ding now ahead on time AND applying pressure!

Cannot see the "Gukesh method" working in this game.
The simple reveals itself after the complex has been exhausted.
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towforce
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by towforce »

Ding wins the first game - as black!
The simple reveals itself after the complex has been exhausted.