2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

[towforce]

Ding is the wrong opponent for Gukesh: he won't succumb to either positional pressure or time pressure.

I voted for Ding in the poll for this reason.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Jouni:

Ding in big trouble? Used already 25 minutes for move 7 .

This comment aged badly, but I must admit that I thought the same with all those Ding's faces, despite I thought before the start of the game that it was to be a close game and a draw after all.

I revised my post about bets and probabilities, only to find that there are only three bookies now instead of six. Here are the fractional odds (English system) of the same betting aggregator site right now:

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Gukesh    8/13    8/13    31/50
Ding      6/5     6/5      6/5

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    143/248    143/248    110/191
Ding      105/248    105/248     81/191

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Gukesh    57.66%    57.66%    57.59%
Ding      42.34%    42.34%    42.41%

For an average of 13651/23684 ~ 57.64% to Gukesh and 10033/23684 ~ 42.36% to Ding, which is still considered the underdog in spite of his early lead, though in a more balanced match (4/7 vs 3/7, more less).

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Hello Graham:

Ding is the wrong opponent for Gukesh: he won't succumb to either positional pressure or time pressure.

I voted for Ding in the poll for this reason.

Gukesh was also nervous. A subtle, yet evident gesture was at the start of the game, when Gukesh accidentally threw his b-pawn when playing 3.- Nc3:

Game 1 Stream | FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024 | Ding Liren vs Gukesh D

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[Ras]

Great first game, with both players taking risk. Gukesh with the space grab on the kingside, Ding with the delayed castling.

[Chris Formula]

Game 1 analysis by GM Daniel King:
https://youtu.be/QCubY-cNwRg

[Chris Formula]

Game 1 analysis by GM Hikaru Nakamura:
https://youtu.be/HI81otLtElg

[Chris Formula]

Game 2 stream:
https://www.youtube.com/live/QeQQacaC1 ... hXQAjRILVf

Can Gukesh bounce back with black? We’ll see in the next few hours.

[towforce]

2nd game ended in a draw. Much less exciting than yesterday.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

Four bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

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Gukesh    5/6    17/20    4/5     4/5
Ding      5/6    17/20    9/10    9/10

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    1/2    1/2    19/37    19/37
Ding      1/2    1/2    18/37    18/37

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Gukesh    50.00%    50.00%    51.35%    51.35%
Ding      50.00%    50.00%    48.65%    48.65%

For an average of 75/148 ~ 50.68% for Gukesh and 73/148 ~ 49.32% for Ding (37/73 and 36/73 are good enough approximations). After two games, there are some bookies that give equal chances of winning the match from now to each one, while the rest are giving slight advantage to the trailing player:

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================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[Chris Formula]

Game 3 stream:
https://www.youtube.com/live/TnH_3vp-J ... G7murlMEi_

[tmokonen]

Ding Liren loses on time, but Gukesh had a winning position anyway. Liren was coughing and sniffling during the game. It can't have been easy to play while feeling ill.