2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

[towforce]

Ding is the wrong opponent for Gukesh: he won't succumb to either positional pressure or time pressure.

I voted for Ding in the poll for this reason.

I might have made a mistake: it looks as though Gukesh is adapting to Ding faster than Ding is adapting to Gukesh.

[Ras]

I think Ding needs to work on his time management. Already the first game had him using way too much time early on.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Rasmus:

I think Ding needs to work on his time management. Already the first game had him using way too much time early on.

I agree. Ding crumbled from a slightly better position, but he needs to improve his time management... he sometimes reminds me of Grischuk in this match. Flagging was too much, I do not know if there is/are other WCC games/s where someone ran out of time.

I expected to get a pre-match forecast with even score after today's game. However, I see that bookies differ a lot, which did not happened before.

Again, four bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

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Gukesh    1/3    2/7    13/20    13/20
Ding      9/4    5/2    11/10    11/10

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    39/55    49/67    14/25    14/25
Ding      16/55    18/67    11/25    11/25

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Gukesh    70.91%    73.13%    56.00%    56.00%
Ding      29.09%    26.87%    44.00%    44.00%

For an average of 11794/18425 ~ 64.01% for Gukesh and 6631/18425 ~ 35.99% for Ding (16/25 and 9/25 are good enough approximations).

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================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%
    1.5/3            64.01%

Lichess says 67.4% for Gukesh at the bottom of this article, which is not far away from the 64.01% average above. They are probably using a negative multinomial distribution with different outcomes, from what I understand from a similar graph of other Lichess article.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[towforce]

Today was a draw. My feeling is that we're going to see less excitement and more draws going forward.

[Chris Formula]

Game 5 stream:
https://www.youtube.com/live/67XGm_cui ... xdAYtP3LbX

another draw?

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

Three draws in a row and bookies agree on their odds again. According to them, Gukesh's chances are almost the same as before the match started.

Again, four bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

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Gukesh    1/3     3/10    1/4    1/4
Ding      9/4    12/5     5/2    5/2

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    39/55    34/47    14/19    14/19
Ding      16/55    13/47     5/19     5/19

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Gukesh    70.91%    72.34%    73.68%    73.68%
Ding      29.09%    27.66%    26.32%    26.32%

For an average of 142737/196460 ~ 72.65% for Gukesh and 53723/196460 ~ 27.35% for Ding (8/11 and 3/11 are good enough approximations).

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================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%
    1.5/3            64.01%
    2.0/4            ??.??%
    2.5/5            ??.??%
    3.0/6            72.65%

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[Chris Formula]

Hello:

Three draws in a row and bookies agree on their odds again. According to them, Gukesh's chances are almost the same as before the match started.

Again, four bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

Code: Select all

Gukesh    1/3     3/10    1/4    1/4
Ding      9/4    12/5     5/2    5/2

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    39/55    34/47    14/19    14/19
Ding      16/55    13/47     5/19     5/19

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Gukesh    70.91%    72.34%    73.68%    73.68%
Ding      29.09%    27.66%    26.32%    26.32%

For an average of 142737/196460 ~ 72.65% for Gukesh and 53723/196460 ~ 27.35% for Ding (8/11 and 3/11 are good enough approximations).

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================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%
    1.5/3            64.01%
    2.0/4            ??.??%
    2.5/5            ??.??%
    3.0/6            72.65%

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

thanks for the figures, Ajedrecita. i'm hoping we'll have more exciting games in the second half of this championship.

[towforce]

Gukesh has the psychological edge: at times, he was standing behind his chair, looking down at the board from this elevated position. Everything about Ding screams, "lacking the will to win".

Each time Gukesh finds a move for which Ding doesn't have a quick answer, he's draining Ding's mental strength. Ding wants out of the fight as quickly as he can escape. He's offering draws more and more often.

https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner

[Jouni]

Still draw after 7 games. Surprise! Today Gukesh has winning position in move 44. but played Ke1.

[d]8/p2r1p2/2R5/1P2kp2/4n3/5BPP/5P2/5K2 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Stockfish 17:

1. +- (2.57): 44.h4 Rd5 45.Rc7 Ke6 46.Be2 f4 47.Kg2 Rd2 48.Kf3 fxg3 49.fxg3 Kf6 50.Ke3 Rb2 51.g4 Nd6 52.Rc5 Rb4 53.h5 Kg7 54.g5 Re4+ 55.Kd3 Re7 56.Rd5 Ne4 57.Bf3 Ng3 58.Kc4 Nf1 59.Rd6 Ne3+ 60.Kb4
2. +- (2.34): 44.Ra6 Nc5 45.Ra2 Kf6 46.h4 Re7 47.Bc6 Nd3 48.Rd2 Re1+ 49.Kg2 Ne5 50.Ra2 Rb1 51.Ra6 Kg7 52.Rxa7 Rb2 53.Kf1 Ng4 54.f4 Ne3+ 55.Kg1 Rb1+ 56.Kf2 Nd1+ 57.Ke1 Nc3+ 58.Kd2 Nxb5 59.Rb7 Nc3 60.Rxb1 Nxb1+ 61.Kd3 Na3 62.Be8 Kf6 63.Bd7 Kg6 64.Kd4 Nc2+ 65.Ke5 f6+ 66.Ke6 Ne3 67.Bb5 Kg7 68.Bd3
3. +- (2.32): 44.Bxe4 fxe4 45.Rc5+ Ke6 46.g4 Rd3 47.Kg2 Kf6 48.h4 Rf3 49.Rg5 Rb3 50.Rf5+ Kg7 51.Re5 Rb4 52.Kg3 Rb3+ 53.Kf4 Rf3+ 54.Kxe4 Rxf2 55.Kd5 Rb2 56.Kc6 Rb4 57.Kb7 Rxg4 58.Kxa7
4. +- (2.28): 44.Ke2 Rd5 45.Rc7 Ke6 46.Ke3 Rxb5 47.Bxe4 fxe4 48.Kxe4 Rb4+ 49.Kf3 a5 50.Ra7 a4 51.g4 Rb3+ 52.Kg2 a3 53.h4 Kf6 54.Ra6+ Kg7 55.g5 Kf8 56.f3 f5
5. +- (2.13): 44.Rc8 Kf6 45.Rc6+ Kg7 46.Bxe4 fxe4 47.Ke2 Rd5 48.Ke3 Rxb5 49.Kxe4 a5 50.Ra6 Rh5 51.h4 f6 52.Kf4 Kg6 53.Ke3 Kg7 54.Kf3 Rf5+ 55.Kg2 Rh5 56.f3 Kg6 57.Ra8 Kg7 58.Kf2 Rc5
6. +- (1.93): 44.Rh6 Nc5 45.Rc6 Ne6 46.Ra6 Re7 47.Kg2 Nd4 48.Bc6 Kf6 49.h4 Kg7 50.Ra4 Ne6 51.Kf1 Kg6 52.Rc4 Kg7 53.Ke2 Nc7+ 54.Kd3 Re5 55.f4 Re7 56.Kd4 Re2 57.Kc3 Ne6
7. +/- (1.53): 44.Ke1 Rd5 45.Be2 Rd4 46.h4 Rb4 47.Rc1 Rb3 48.h5 f4 49.gxf4+ Kxf4 50.h6 Rh3 51.Rc7 Rxh6 52.Rxf7+ Ke5 53.Rxa7 Rh3 54.b6 Nc5 55.b7 Rb3 56.Bf3 Kd4 57.Kf1 Rb2 58.Kg2
8. +/- (1.47): 44.Bg2 Rd5 45.Rc7 Kf6 46.Rc4 Ke5 47.f4+ Kf6 48.Bxe4 fxe4 49.b6 axb6 50.Rxe4 b5 51.Kg2 Rc5 52.g4 Rc2+ 53.Kf3 Rc3+ 54.Re3 Rc4 55.Rd3 Kg7 56.Rd7 Kg6

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

Ding continues to spend much time in the early moves and it does not look a good strategy for me... but I am not world champion. He saved the day today.

There are three bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

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Gukesh     4/9     3/10     3/10
Ding      13/8    43/20    43/20

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    189/293    63/89    63/89
Ding      105/293    26/89    26/89

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Gukesh    64.51%    70.79%    70.79%
Ding      35.49%    29.21%    29.21%

For an average of 17913/26077 ~ 68.69% for Gukesh and 8164/26077 ~ 31.31% for Ding (68/99 and 31/99 are good enough approximations).

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================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%
    1.5/3            64.01%
    2.0/4            ??.??%
    2.5/5            ??.??%
    3.0/6            72.65%
    3.5/7            68.69%

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.