Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

[chrisw]

Just a small illustration how ridiculous are your assumptions (regarding Premier Division):
http://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.p ... 31#p772531

Haha! It didn't need to be personalised with "your" assumptions, "the" assumptions" would be enough. Or "ridiculous", when "Ethereal is likely 70 pts below Fire, as these blitz test results show ..." would be enough to get the meaning across. But I suppose it wouldn't be Milos without the added chilli pepper. What is unseasoned Milos like, actually? One of the smarter ones, in my opinion. But, anyway, if you think need the added seasoning, up to you.

Okay, so back to boring factuality-land ...

Assumptions are assumptions. Best thing to do with them is make them clear. Well, I try to. Stated already: I don't really know where Fire should be, in relation to the others. Maybe 100pts or so behind the top three, according to the lists. Is that an unfair assumption? Is it being worked on? Gimme data.

As to the relative position of Ethereal. Well, the programmer suggested when I asked, without being committal, IIRC, that it was around 3300 or so, using the CCRL 40 scaling of elos. When Ethereal played Round 4, it got a tournament elo increase of about 70pts, which I factored into its actual elo at 50% and set it at 3335 for Round 3. It ended Round 3 with no change to its tournament given elo. So I put it in this Round at 3334. TCEC chose 3341, not much different.
Ethereal is doing well enough this round, TCEC is giving it currently an elo improvement of +50, and my algorithm says something similar. If promoted and all else stays equal, my elo-giving algorithm will probably start Ethereal off at 3360 in Premier Division.

So, like I said in the previous post, which it looks like you didn't actually carefully read:

"The elos of the other six engines are more likely to be problematic (too low, because progress)."

If you want to suggest a rough figure for Fire, including a "worked on" estimate, feel free, I am all ears.

I apologize for the language used.
Regarding topic, I have a problem in general with TCEC "ratings". These are not real data but some kind of mishmash of a priory CCRL ratings and live rating change based on actual TCEC games of that season. Problem is that person who made the calculation in TCEC (completely wrongly) assumed due to TCEC conditions that CCRL prior plays very small role, while in reality CCRL prior should have more than a dominant effect on rating calculation and TCEC games very small effect if any.
So +50, +100Elo rating gains based on few TCEC games are nothing but BS. Also assuming that since CCRL tests last official version that is like 3 months old and there is a new version playing in TCEC it could gain 50 and more Elo is simply dreaming or having no clue how painstakingly slow improvement of strong engines is.

No problem. I remember way back making the decision myself to match the tone back then, there's little point in being polite when the lead being given is as passive aggressive as it once was. Things have improved, I think.

I have a problem with my own "ratings", but they are just a game, about a game, consisting of games about a game that masquerades as modelling life but doesn't. Anyway, the results look better expressed as a spread (see recent listing). Guessed that Fire had made some progress btw.

[chrisw]

TCEC 101 rounds so far

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1	Ethereal 10.85		25	17.5	11 [6/5	0	204.50	3341	94 [3435]	...	0 = 1 =	= = 1 =	1 = 1	1 1 = =	= 1 1	= = =	1 1 = 1
2	Chiron S13		26	16.5	10 [3/7	0	196.25	3340	45 [3385]	1 = 0 =	...	= = = 1	1 = 0 1	1 1 1 =	0 = =	= 1 =	= 1 1 =
3	Fizbo 2			26	13.0	3 [3/0]	0	158.25	3284	6 [3290]	= = 0 =	= = = 0	...	= = 1 0	= = =	1 = = =	= = =	= = = 1
4	Fritz 16.10		25	11.5	5 [4/1]	0	141.25	3294	-42 [3252]	0 = 0	0 = 1 0	= = 0 1	...	1 = =	= = = =	1 = 1 =	0 = 0
5	Jonny 8.1		25	11.0	3 [3/0]	0	130.00	3274	-30 [3244]	0 0 = =	0 0 0 =	= = =	0 = =	...	= = 1 =	= = = =	1 = 1
6	Laser 180818		25	11.0	2 [2/0]	0	137.00	3194	67 [3261]	= 0 0	1 = =	0 = = =	= = = =	= = 0 =	...	= = = =	= 0 1
7	Booot 6.3.1		25	11.0	1 [1/0]	2	136.75	3273	-33 [3240]	= = =	= 0 =	= = =	0 = 0 =	= = = =	= = = =	...	0 = = 1
8	ChessBrainVB 3.70	25	9.5	4 [4/0]	0	117.50	3300	-107 [3193]	0 0 = 0	= 0 0 =	= = = 0	1 = 1	0 = 0	= 1 0	1 = = 0	...

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Division 1 sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place

Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Ethereal       3401   3334     0.984   0.016   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Chiron         3356   3288     0.016   0.984   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Fizbo          3269   3287     0.000   0.000   0.570   0.354   0.067   0.009   0.000   0.000
Fritz          3235   3226     0.000   0.000   0.354   0.341   0.173   0.093   0.033   0.006
Jonny          3221   3140     0.000   0.000   0.066   0.199   0.360   0.239   0.099   0.037
Laser          3219   3226     0.000   0.000   0.008   0.070   0.255   0.357   0.207   0.102
Booot          3218   3272     0.000   0.000   0.002   0.013   0.075   0.185   0.441   0.284
ChessBrainVB   3191   3279     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.024   0.069   0.117   0.219   0.571

Promoting Ethereal and Chiron ...

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Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

[Laskos]

TCEC 101 rounds so far

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1	Ethereal 10.85		25	17.5	11 [6/5	0	204.50	3341	94 [3435]	...	0 = 1 =	= = 1 =	1 = 1	1 1 = =	= 1 1	= = =	1 1 = 1
2	Chiron S13		26	16.5	10 [3/7	0	196.25	3340	45 [3385]	1 = 0 =	...	= = = 1	1 = 0 1	1 1 1 =	0 = =	= 1 =	= 1 1 =
3	Fizbo 2			26	13.0	3 [3/0]	0	158.25	3284	6 [3290]	= = 0 =	= = = 0	...	= = 1 0	= = =	1 = = =	= = =	= = = 1
4	Fritz 16.10		25	11.5	5 [4/1]	0	141.25	3294	-42 [3252]	0 = 0	0 = 1 0	= = 0 1	...	1 = =	= = = =	1 = 1 =	0 = 0
5	Jonny 8.1		25	11.0	3 [3/0]	0	130.00	3274	-30 [3244]	0 0 = =	0 0 0 =	= = =	0 = =	...	= = 1 =	= = = =	1 = 1
6	Laser 180818		25	11.0	2 [2/0]	0	137.00	3194	67 [3261]	= 0 0	1 = =	0 = = =	= = = =	= = 0 =	...	= = = =	= 0 1
7	Booot 6.3.1		25	11.0	1 [1/0]	2	136.75	3273	-33 [3240]	= = =	= 0 =	= = =	0 = 0 =	= = = =	= = = =	...	0 = = 1
8	ChessBrainVB 3.70	25	9.5	4 [4/0]	0	117.50	3300	-107 [3193]	0 0 = 0	= 0 0 =	= = = 0	1 = 1	0 = 0	= 1 0	1 = = 0	...

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Division 1 sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place

Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Ethereal       3401   3334     0.984   0.016   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Chiron         3356   3288     0.016   0.984   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Fizbo          3269   3287     0.000   0.000   0.570   0.354   0.067   0.009   0.000   0.000
Fritz          3235   3226     0.000   0.000   0.354   0.341   0.173   0.093   0.033   0.006
Jonny          3221   3140     0.000   0.000   0.066   0.199   0.360   0.239   0.099   0.037
Laser          3219   3226     0.000   0.000   0.008   0.070   0.255   0.357   0.207   0.102
Booot          3218   3272     0.000   0.000   0.002   0.013   0.075   0.185   0.441   0.284
ChessBrainVB   3191   3279     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.024   0.069   0.117   0.219   0.571

Promoting Ethereal and Chiron ...

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Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

[chrisw]

TCEC 101 rounds so far

Code: Select all

1	Ethereal 10.85		25	17.5	11 [6/5	0	204.50	3341	94 [3435]	...	0 = 1 =	= = 1 =	1 = 1	1 1 = =	= 1 1	= = =	1 1 = 1
2	Chiron S13		26	16.5	10 [3/7	0	196.25	3340	45 [3385]	1 = 0 =	...	= = = 1	1 = 0 1	1 1 1 =	0 = =	= 1 =	= 1 1 =
3	Fizbo 2			26	13.0	3 [3/0]	0	158.25	3284	6 [3290]	= = 0 =	= = = 0	...	= = 1 0	= = =	1 = = =	= = =	= = = 1
4	Fritz 16.10		25	11.5	5 [4/1]	0	141.25	3294	-42 [3252]	0 = 0	0 = 1 0	= = 0 1	...	1 = =	= = = =	1 = 1 =	0 = 0
5	Jonny 8.1		25	11.0	3 [3/0]	0	130.00	3274	-30 [3244]	0 0 = =	0 0 0 =	= = =	0 = =	...	= = 1 =	= = = =	1 = 1
6	Laser 180818		25	11.0	2 [2/0]	0	137.00	3194	67 [3261]	= 0 0	1 = =	0 = = =	= = = =	= = 0 =	...	= = = =	= 0 1
7	Booot 6.3.1		25	11.0	1 [1/0]	2	136.75	3273	-33 [3240]	= = =	= 0 =	= = =	0 = 0 =	= = = =	= = = =	...	0 = = 1
8	ChessBrainVB 3.70	25	9.5	4 [4/0]	0	117.50	3300	-107 [3193]	0 0 = 0	= 0 0 =	= = = 0	1 = 1	0 = 0	= 1 0	1 = = 0	...

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Division 1 sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place

Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Ethereal       3401   3334     0.984   0.016   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Chiron         3356   3288     0.016   0.984   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Fizbo          3269   3287     0.000   0.000   0.570   0.354   0.067   0.009   0.000   0.000
Fritz          3235   3226     0.000   0.000   0.354   0.341   0.173   0.093   0.033   0.006
Jonny          3221   3140     0.000   0.000   0.066   0.199   0.360   0.239   0.099   0.037
Laser          3219   3226     0.000   0.000   0.008   0.070   0.255   0.357   0.207   0.102
Booot          3218   3272     0.000   0.000   0.002   0.013   0.075   0.185   0.441   0.284
ChessBrainVB   3191   3279     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.024   0.069   0.117   0.219   0.571

Promoting Ethereal and Chiron ...

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Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

[Laskos]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

[chrisw]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

is about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.

[Laskos]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

is about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.

I don't understand, you have 47% (according to you) and want 3:1? That 33% for Ethereal in top 3 is ridiculous. Instead of a fair 2:1, I can go even for 5:1 that this won't happen. Deal?

[chrisw]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

is about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.

I don't understand, you have 47% (according to you) and want 3:1? That 33% for Ethereal in top 3 is ridiculous. Instead of a fair 2:1, I can go even for 5:1 that this won't happen. Deal?

I have Ethereal 1% chance to be first, 6% second and 17% third = 24% to be in top three. Disregard my earlier 33% for Ethereal, my bad adding up or something.

So, that's 35% for either Fire or Ethereal in top three. Okay I take 5:1 on an upset in the top three.

[Laskos]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

is about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.

I don't understand, you have 47% (according to you) and want 3:1? That 33% for Ethereal in top 3 is ridiculous. Instead of a fair 2:1, I can go even for 5:1 that this won't happen. Deal?

I have Ethereal 1% chance to be first, 6% second and 17% third = 24% to be in top three. Disregard my earlier 33% for Ethereal, my bad adding up or something.

So, that's 35% for either Fire or Ethereal in top three. Okay I take 5:1 on an upset in the top three.

No, 5:1 for Ethereal in top 3, that was my proposal, maybe I haven't expressed it very clearly. Your prediction is 24%, or close to 3:1, so 5:1 is a good proposal from me. I can go even to 7:1 (Ethereal in top 3). Deal?
With Fire engine I have some issues, as it can be improved fast, Kranium style.

[chrisw]

Code: Select all

Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place
Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3511   3511     0.700   0.220   0.064   0.013   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3470   3470     0.215   0.447   0.225   0.079   0.025   0.006   0.001   0.000
Komodo         3440   3440     0.069   0.232   0.380   0.194   0.087   0.029   0.007   0.002
Ethereal       3401   3401     0.011   0.061   0.176   0.317   0.242   0.127   0.051   0.016
Fire           3386   3386     0.005   0.032   0.110   0.244   0.297   0.191   0.088   0.033
Chiron         3356   3356     0.001   0.007   0.034   0.105   0.207   0.313   0.215   0.118
Ginkgo         3322   3322     0.000   0.001   0.006   0.028   0.079   0.182   0.331   0.374
Andscacs       3315   3315     0.000   0.000   0.004   0.019   0.061   0.151   0.307   0.457

Again Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.

This could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.

So, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?

is about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.

I don't understand, you have 47% (according to you) and want 3:1? That 33% for Ethereal in top 3 is ridiculous. Instead of a fair 2:1, I can go even for 5:1 that this won't happen. Deal?

I have Ethereal 1% chance to be first, 6% second and 17% third = 24% to be in top three. Disregard my earlier 33% for Ethereal, my bad adding up or something.

So, that's 35% for either Fire or Ethereal in top three. Okay I take 5:1 on an upset in the top three.

No, 5:1 for Ethereal in top 3, that was my proposal, maybe I haven't expressed it very clearly. Your prediction is 24%, or close to 3:1, so 5:1 is a good proposal from me. I can go even to 7:1 (Ethereal in top 3). Deal?
With Fire engine I have some issues, as it can be improved fast, Kranium style.

Ok, just go for a top three upset, any engine to do it; my jar of French honey against, what's a good food in your region? Anything but herrings ....