Ender8pieces wrote: ↑Fri Jan 23, 2026 2:33 am
I understand the logic of using bounds: if a position yields the same result under both 'Assume Loss' and 'Assume Win' for the missing conversion, its value is indeed mathematically proven regardless of the true value of that missing link.
However, my main concern is empirical rather than theoretical. By treating the missing tablebases as a variable bound, we might end up with a tablebase where a very large fraction—perhaps the majority—of positions are flagged as 'Undecided'.
The solution to that is also empirical. You will kno how many positions in the table are undecided once you generate it. If that is an unbearably large fraction the missing successor apparently contains the essential lines through which such an end-game should be typically won, and there are no alternatives, not even (DTZ-wise) slower ones. There are then two possibilities: either you have to generate the missing one after all, or you can discard the generated one as not worth it, and also treat it as missing. This decision will be affected by whether you will contain the particular end-game as important or non-sensical.
This is where the P-slices come in. In an ending with Pawns restrictions on their promotion (to stay away from missing tables) will in general not cause undecided positions to be spread homogeneously over the P-slices. Most P-slices have no Pawns on the 7th rank, and are not directly affected by promotion restrictions. The effects of the latter have to propagate to them retrogradely from P-slices where promotion is possible. Each such propagation step has the tendency to reduce the effect of the undecided positons in the successor; they will try to find a more favorable constellation of their mobile pieces before pushing the Pawn to convert to the successor P-slice, to reach a decided position instead of the undecided one, and often this succeeds. (As I illustrated in the KPK example for the no-underpromotion restriction.)
The underpromtion issue directly affects all P-slices with 7th-rank Pawns. But we know that the necessity for underpromotion is very rare. By far the most common cases are promoting to Rook to avoid an immediate stalemate, or to Knight to promote with check. Both require a very specific location of the enemy King and often some of the other pieces as well. That makes it relatively easy to find an alternative by first adjusting the position of the other pieces before promoting. The 'single promotion piece' restriction only affects a second promotion, and usually the alternative exists to first trade / sac the promotion piece you already have for the opponent's one (or his advanced passer) before promoting your second Pawn. If you cannot stop opponent passers outright while being a Queen ahead. Because Queens are so proficient in perpetual checking they are much more valuable to a defender than the attacker, and leaving extra Queens on the board makes it questionable whether you could force a second promotion at all. So trading away the result from any opponent promotion immediately in general offers much better prospects for winning, so that forbidding the alternative would only turn relatively few won positions to undecided.
But again, you will know when you generated the table. And then you could decide to allow two Queens after all, and also generate KQQRPkqrpp. The P-slices of this would still only have 7 mobile pieces. And the white advantage is so large that it is very likely a forced mate can be found without pushing any Pawns, or allowing the opponent to do so. If pieces have to be traded in the course of defending against mate, you will convert to KQRPkrpp or KQQPkqpp, which has P-slices with only 5 mobile men. All this is still a lot easier than solving KQQQRkqqqr.