How will Komodo score in four games giving N for P to FM?

[lkaufman]

On Wednesday at 11 a.m. Eastern Time we have a 4 game match scheduled with FM John Meyer, 2270 FIDE, 2209 USCF, at 45' + 15", Komodo giving knight (b1) for pawn (c7,d7,e7, and f7 respectively) handicap. Time limit as usual 45' + 15". Seven years ago John swept 4 out of four against Rybka at knight odds, and recently FM Bolzoni scored four wins, one draw, and one loss against Komodo at knight odds, hence the one pawn "change" which should make it a close match. In the opening a knight is worth at least four pawns, so this is roughly a three pawn handicap. At two pawn handicap, Komodo scored 50% against two GMs, scoring well when one of the pawns was an edge pawn but poorly otherwise.
There is also a short two game match planned for tomorrow (Tuesday) at 11 a.m. against a visiting British player rated 2080 FIDE (Mark Gray, age 30). Same time control but full knight odds. I'll be happy if we draw one of the two games. Knight odds is just a large handicap for a serious game.
More matches to come in near future.

[Jesse Gersenson]

Both matches will be broadcast at:

http://u.komodochess.com/games/Live.html

I think the missing pawn will nullify a lot of the knowledge which makes the FM an FM.

4 games in one day!? I predict John'll lose game four.

[Graham Banks]

I'll go for 2/4.

[JJJ]

I ll go for 3/4

[lkaufman]

Both matches will be broadcast at:

http://u.komodochess.com/games/Live.html

I think the missing pawn will nullify a lot of the knowledge which makes the FM an FM.

4 games in one day!? I predict John'll lose game four.

He had no problem with the schedule years ago, and doesn't expect that to be a problem for him this time. We'll take a dinner break before the fourth game to minimize that concern.
I agree that the missing pawn is what gives Komodo chances. At full knight odds, I just beat Komodo rather easily in a 4'+2" blitz game (after two draws), so it's no wonder that with an hour or so even a player rated a couple hundred elo below me (like tomorrow's opponent Mark Gray) should be a big favorite.

[Laskos]

3/4

[Ferdy]

He already had experience before, so this is a plus for John. Without a pawn but with a knight he can probably get a draw without much trouble.
But with improved Komodo's strength, a little mistake could easily be punished.
So I go 2/4 score for Komodo.

[lkaufman]

The concensus gives Komodo a slight edge, and this time I voted the same way, for 2.5 out of 4. I figure the c,d,e games are evenly matched with draws likely, but I think Komodo is favored in the f7 game, though not by much. We have made some changes to contempt recently, which may require adjusting the value a bit, which I'm tinkering with tonite. I think we set it too high for today's games at knight odds.

[lkaufman]

With 3.5 out of 4, Komodo outscored every single forecast.