Apple MacBook Pro M5 MAX + Microsoft Copilot discussion

[Hai]

I had an extremely long conversation (several days) asking Microsoft Copilot about the Apple MacBook Pro M5 MAX. Particular attention was paid to Apple's development since the M1 chip generation, Apple's demands on itself, future needs (AI, KI, ...) and the competition. Among other things, Copilot commented on the probability of the following things happening.

What do you think?

3 nm (N3P): 100 %
(M4 was 3nm N3E. See also N3X)

CPU
20 Cores (16 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 80 %
24 Cores (20 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10 %
32 Cores (28 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10 %

GPU
42 Cores: 70 %
50 Cores: 20 %
60 Cores: 10 %

RAM up to:
192 GB: 50 %
256 GB: 30 %
384 GB: 20 %

Memory Bandwidth
546 GB/s: 50 %
800 GB/s: 50 %

Neural Engine
24 Cores: 50 %
32 Cores: 50 %

SSD
8 TB: 50 %
16 TB: 50 %

ARMv9.6 Architecture: 80 %

ARMv9.5 Architecture: 20 %

+

SVE2.2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2.2): 65 %

SVE2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2): 55 %

SME2 (Scalable Matrix Extensions version 2): 65 %

Rosetta 3: 50 %

AVX-512: 70 %

AVX-256: 50 %

Multithreading: 70 %

SMT (Simultaneous Multithreading): 70 %

Hyperthreading: 30 %

PCIe Version 5.0 (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express): 80 %

68 MB L2 Cache: 30 %

76 MB L2 Cache: 40 %

84 MB L2 Cache: 30 %

3D-V-Cache (X3D RAM): 90%

= 204 - 252 MB L2 Cache

Performance Cores @ 5 GHz: 90%

Metal 4: 70 %

Frame Generation: 30 %

Path Tracing: 25 %

DirectX Version 13: 60 %

Codec VP8, Codec AV1, Codec AVC, Codec VC-1, Encoding: 30 %

17 Inches: 25 %

18 Inches: 35 %

19 Inches: 15 %

20 Inches: 10 %

WLAN 7: 100 %

5G+ Modem: 70 %

Bluetooth 6.0: 50 %

Ultra Retina XDR Display = Tandem OLED: 100 %

Contrast Ratio: 2.000.000:1: 100 %

3000 Nits HDR brightness: 30 %

ProMotion Technology for Adaptive Refresh Rates up to 240 Hz: 50 %

8K @ 120 Hz: 30 %

4K @ 360 Hz: 25 %

4K @ 480 Hz: 20 %

Audio New Speaker System: 70 %

10 Gigabit Ethernet: 80 %

HDMI 2.2: 50 %

SD Express 9.1: 40 %

LPDDR6X ECC RAM: 50 %

Face ID: 80 %

48MP Center Stage Camera: 40 %

4K Video Recording: 50 %

Touch Screen Option: 30 %

MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

[smatovic]

[...]
MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

Nice, what is the percentage for Extreme Edition in Studio and Pro?

--
Srdja

[Hai]

[...]
MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

Nice, what is the percentage for Extreme Edition in Studio and Pro?

--
Srdja

Studio 0%, case isn't big enough for the EXTREME die size.
2x MAX = 1x ULTRA
4x ULTRA = 1x EXTREME
There will be a new designed Mac Pro so 1x EXTREME is theoretically and technically possible 50%.

[Hai]

Take a look at this one:
and that one too:

When we look at the M5 MAX stuff % that will change, we can see that it will be much stronger than the M4 MAX.

[Hai]

[...]
MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

Nice, what is the percentage for Extreme Edition in Studio and Pro?

--
Srdja

But do you really need that much power?

-The M5 MAX will have new cores.
-M4 MAX is fast and the M5 MAX will have most likely 5 GHz. I mean Apple M5 CPU @ 5 GHz
-The AMD 7950X has strong 16 cores and Intel has 16 to 24 cores but now Apple M5 MAX will have 16 performance cores + 4 efficiency cores = 20 real cores inside a MacBook.
= With these changes alone it's probably +20% to 25% faster than the M4 MAX.

[Werewolf]

[...]
MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

Nice, what is the percentage for Extreme Edition in Studio and Pro?

--
Srdja

But do you really need that much power?

-The M5 MAX will have new cores.
-M4 MAX is fast and the M5 MAX will have most likely 5 GHz. I mean Apple M5 CPU @ 5 GHz
-The AMD 7950X has strong 16 cores and Intel has 16 to 24 cores but now Apple M5 MAX will have 16 performance cores + 4 efficiency cores = 20 real cores inside a MacBook.
= With these changes alone it's probably +20% to 25% faster than the M4 MAX.

The main issue is for chess a high end Ryzen or Threadripper will just be a lot faster at the same price point.
I own an M2 Ultra Mac Studio for video stuff and eventually I put chess software on it out of curiousity. It's nothing special.

[Hai]

[...]
MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30%

And what do you think?

Nice, what is the percentage for Extreme Edition in Studio and Pro?

--
Srdja

There is also a very high chance that we will get the new or the slightly older
ARMv9.6 Architecture: 80 %
ARMv9.5 Architecture: 20 %
That means we will also have a very good chance to see
SVE2.2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2.2): 65 %
SVE2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2): 55 %
Which will result in around +33% speed up.
Ipmanchess Stockfish 14.1 kn/s = Geekbench multicore: 26000
+20 to 25% = 31000 to 32500
+33% = around 40000 kn/s

40000 kn/s + a very good chance for:
Apple Multithreading: 70 %
SMT (Simultaneous Multithreading): 70 %
Hyperthreading: 30 %
That will increase the kn/s by 66%
= 66000 kn/s

AVX2 is available.
66000 kn/s + a very good chance for:
AVX-512: 70 %
AVX-256: 50 %

The M5 MAX MacBook will be great for the main user but it could be even much better for chess engines user and some other groups

[Hai]

Copilot vs DeepSeeks (70b distill q6_K version 58 GB) opinion
3 nm (N3P): 100 % 100%
(M4 was 3nm N3E. See also N3X)

CPU
20 Cores (16 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 80% 80%
24 Cores (20 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10% 15%
32 Cores (28 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10% 5%

GPU
42 Cores: 70% 70%
50 Cores: 20% 20%
60 Cores: 10% 10%

RAM up to:
192 GB: 50% 50%
256 GB: 30% 30%
384 GB: 20% 20%

Memory Bandwidth
546 GB/s: 50% 50%
800 GB/s: 50% 50%

Neural Engine
24 Cores: 50% -
32 Cores: 50% 70%
64 Cores: - vs 64 Cores 30%

SSD
8 TB: 50% 80%
16 TB: 50% 20%

ARMv9.6 Architecture: 80% 90%

ARMv9.5 Architecture: 20% 85%

+

SVE2.2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2.2): 65% 85%

SVE2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2): 55% 85%

SME2 (Scalable Matrix Extensions version 2): 65% 85%

Rosetta 3: 50% 30%

AVX-512: 70% 10%

AVX-256: 50% 40%

Multithreading: 70% 80%

SMT (Simultaneous Multithreading): 70% 80%

Hyperthreading: 30% 20%

PCIe Version 5.0 (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express): 80% 70%

68 MB L2 Cache: 30% 30%

76 MB L2 Cache: 40% 85%

84 MB L2 Cache: 30% 70%

3D-V-Cache (X3D RAM): 90% 40%

= 204 - 252 MB L2 Cache

Performance Cores @ 5 GHz: 90% 40%

Metal 4: 70% 90%

Frame Generation: 30% 75%

Path Tracing: 25% 65%

DirectX Version 13: 60% 30%

Codec VP8, Codec AV1, Codec AVC, Codec VC-1, Encoding: 30% 85%

17 Inches: 25% 80%

18 Inches: 35% 40%

19 Inches: 15% 30%

20 Inches: 10% 25%

WLAN 7: 100% 90%

5G+ Modem: 70% 70%

Bluetooth 6.0: 50% 85%

Ultra Retina XDR Display = Tandem OLED: 100% 80%

Contrast Ratio: 2.000.000:1: 100% 20%

3000 Nits HDR brightness: 30% 70%

ProMotion Technology for Adaptive Refresh Rates up to 240 Hz: 50% 85%

8K @ 120 Hz: 30% 50%

4K @ 360 Hz: 25% 60%

4K @ 480 Hz: 20% 55%

Audio New Speaker System: 70% 85%

10 Gigabit Ethernet: 80% 75%

HDMI 2.2: 50% 80%

SD Express 9.1: 40% 70%

LPDDR6X ECC RAM: 50% 60%

Face ID: 80% 80%

48MP Center Stage Camera: 40% 85%

4K Video Recording: 50% 90%

Touch Screen Option: 30% 80%

MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30% 85%

DeepSeek only: Stylus Support (Apple Pencil): 80%

[Hai]

The Mac Studio M3 ULTRA is great but due to the fact that the M5 MacBook will have much better scaling, we need to wait some months and buy it later this year.
I asked also ChatGPT:

3 nm (N3P): 100 % 100% 70%
(M4 was 3nm N3E. See also N3X)

CPU
20 Cores (16 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 80% 80% 60%
24 Cores (20 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10% 15% 50%
32 Cores (28 Performance Cores, 4 Efficiency Cores): 10% 5% 40%

GPU
42 Cores: 70% 70% 60%
50 Cores: 20% 20% 50%
60 Cores: 10% 10% 30%

RAM up to:
192 GB: 50% 50% 50%
256 GB: 30% 30% 60%
384 GB: 20% 20% 40%

Memory Bandwidth
546 GB/s: 50% 50% 50%
800 GB/s: 50% 50% 40%

Neural Engine
24 Cores: 50% - 60%
32 Cores: 50% 70% 50%
64 Cores: - 30% 30%

SSD
8 TB: 50% 80% 60%
16 TB: 50% 20% 40%

ARMv9.6 Architecture: 80% 90% 60%

ARMv9.5 Architecture: 20% 85% 70%

+

SVE2.2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2.2): 65% 85% 50%

SVE2 (Scalable Vector Extensions version 2): 55% 85% 60%

SME2 (Scalable Matrix Extensions version 2): 65% 85% 40%

Rosetta 3: 50% 30% 70%

AVX-512: 70% 10% 50%

AVX-256: 50% 40% 60%

Multithreading: 70% 80% 70%

SMT (Simultaneous Multithreading): 70% 80% 60%

Hyperthreading: 30% 20% 50%

PCIe Version 5.0 (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express): 80% 70% 70%

68 MB L2 Cache: 30% 30% 50%

76 MB L2 Cache: 40% 85% 60%

84 MB L2 Cache: 30% 70% 40%

3D-V-Cache (X3D RAM): 90% 40% 30%
= 204 - 252 MB L2 Cache

Performance Cores @ 5 GHz: 90% 40% 70%

Metal 4: 70% 90% 60%

Frame Generation: 30% 75% 50%

Path Tracing: 25% 65% 50%

DirectX Version 13: 60% 30% 40%

Codec VP8, Codec AV1, Codec AVC, Codec VC-1, Encoding: 30% 85% 60%

17 Inches: 25% 80% 30%

18 Inches: 35% 40% 20%

19 Inches: 15% 30% 10%

20 Inches: 10% 25% 10%

WLAN 7: 100% 90% 50%

5G+ Modem: 70% 70% 40%

Bluetooth 6.0: 50% 85% 50%

Ultra Retina XDR Display = Tandem OLED: 100% 80% 70%

Contrast Ratio: 2.000.000:1: 100% 20% 60%

3000 Nits HDR brightness: 30% 70% 50%

ProMotion Technology for Adaptive Refresh Rates up to 240 Hz: 50% 85% 65%

8K @ 120 Hz: 30% 50% 40%

4K @ 360 Hz: 25% 60% 30%

4K @ 480 Hz: 20% 55% 20%

Audio New Speaker System: 70% 85% 75%

10 Gigabit Ethernet: 80% 75% 55%

HDMI 2.2: 50% 80% 50%

SD Express 9.1: 40% 70% 45%

LPDDR6X ECC RAM: 50% 60% 60%

Face ID: 80% 80% 50%

48MP Center Stage Camera: 40% 85% 40%

4K Video Recording: 50% 90% 70%

Touch Screen Option: 30% 80% 30%

MacBook with ULTRA Chip Option: 30% 85% 50%

Stylus Support (Apple Pencil): - 80% 25%