hgm wrote:You apparently think that a World Championship where the outcome is not certain in advance is doomed. Logic of course dictates that exactly the opposite is true. If it really is the problem that programs refuse to participate because the 30-Elo advantage they believe to have on their opponents is not enough to guarantee a win in the given format, how do you think they would behave when the format guarantees them a certain loss because they have a small disadvantage? Do you really think that if losing by a large, but not inconceivable amount of bad luck already deters them, that losing for sure will make them line up in huge crowds to participate and get a beating?
Making the outcome predictable will be the death knell for any tournament for sure, as it will deter all but the number one from participating, while some amount of unpredictability might deter the number one, but is favorable for all others. If people are only prepared to participate when they have more than 50% chance to win, there will never be more than a single participant...
Sure, 100 meters sprint is dead because of Usain Bolt.
Then one had in such luck-prone sport as soccer FC Barcelona winning everything for a long period of time, leading in all rating lists (serious ones, by FIFA), Champions League died? Then again, Spain becoming World Champion was not a surprise according to the same FIFA rating lists. Was that FIFA WC boring? It seems even soccer luck-prone competitions are better than ICGA WCCC in discerning the best player in a competition. And nobody complains that soccer is too much deterministic.
Then take tennis: there is an official rating list too, when Federer topped it for 5 years, tennis died off?
Generally, it's good to keep the resolving power of the competition similar to the typical differences between competitors. There will be a nuanced interplay of true strength and luck. Not a mess of mostly luck. What do you expect in a 10 games match with all top engines participating? That's much worse than poker.