Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

AdminX · Post by **AdminX** » Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:36 pm

[pgn]
[Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.05"]
[Round "8.1"]
[White "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Black "Nepomniachtchi, Ian"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "C43"]
[WhiteElo "2855"]
[BlackElo "2782"]
[Annotator "ChessBase"]
[PlyCount "91"]
[EventDate "2021.11.25"]
[EventType "match"]
[EventCountry "UAE"]
[SourceTitle "playchess.com"]
[Source "ChessBase"]
[SourceQuality "1"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. e4 {0} e5 {11} 2. Nf3 {12} Nf6 {6} 3. d4 {5} Nxe4 {11} 4. Bd3 {8} d5 {8} 5.
Nxe5 {8} Nd7 {18} 6. Nxd7 {16} Bxd7 {8} 7. Nd2 {5} Nxd2 {71} 8. Bxd2 {7} Bd6 {
185} 9. O-O {174} h5 {1009} 10. Qe1+ {2441} Kf8 {499} 11. Bb4 {65} Qe7 {55} 12.
Bxd6 {249} Qxd6 {18} 13. Qd2 {37} Re8 {201} 14. Rae1 {147} Rh6 {13} 15. Qg5 {
185} c6 {360} 16. Rxe8+ {707} Bxe8 {15} 17. Re1 {31} Qf6 {86} 18. Qe3 {373} Bd7
{48} 19. h3 {197} h4 {205} 20. c4 {93} dxc4 {888} 21. Bxc4 {16} b5 {244} (21...
a6 $11 {should be considered.}) 22. Qa3+ $1 {335} Kg8 {537 [#]} 23. Qxa7 $1 {69
} Qd8 {529 [#]} 24. Bb3 $1 {169} Rd6 {139} (24... Rh5 $16 25. Re4 Rf5) 25. Re4
{576} Be6 {378} 26. Bxe6 {16} Rxe6 {3} 27. Rxe6 {28} fxe6 {2} 28. Qc5 {159} Qa5
{103} 29. Qxc6 {20} Qe1+ {45} 30. Kh2 {2} Qxf2 {16} 31. Qxe6+ {16} Kh7 {81} 32.
Qe4+ {57} Kg8 {0} 33. b3 {262} Qxa2 {180} 34. Qe8+ {8} Kh7 {3} 35. Qxb5 {17}
Qf2 {80} 36. Qe5 {92} Qb2 {6} 37. Qe4+ {79} Kg8 {4} 38. Qd3 {195} (38. Qe8+
$142 Kh7 39. Qh5+ Kg8 40. Qxh4) 38... Qf2 {31} 39. Qc3 {31} Qf4+ {35} 40. Kg1 {
0} Kh7 {0} 41. Qd3+ {576} g6 {117} 42. Qd1 {282} Qe3+ {186} 43. Kh1 {8} g5 {12}
44. d5 $18 {319} g4 {24} 45. hxg4 {9} h3 {5} 46. Qf3 {25} 1-0
[/pgn]

Cornfed · Post by **Cornfed** » Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:13 pm

Giri had a telling comment after the game - words to the effect of: the joke among my colleagues is that when you 'win' against Nepo it leaves a "bad taste in your mouth" because it's something Nepo had to do, not great play on your part'

Of course Team Magnus is aware and likely has taken an approach to try to exploit this. In this game...Nepo plays his normal tempo (as is his choice - and should not be 'bad' given there is no increment for most of the game) and the position is unbalanced enough that there is room for Nepo to....well, 'beat himself'. That is perhaps not unexpected after losing the thread in game 6 and getting ground down.

10...Kf8?! then 21...b5? (among others) those were all 'choices' and Nepo made bad choices when more natural moves would have been 'okay'. Choice is what decides chess games.

Tearth · Post by **Tearth** » Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:14 pm

Was pretty painful to watch when Nepo is slowly realizing that the game is lost after his miscalculation, especially because the match was pretty much a draw at some point. Hopefully, he will rest tomorrow and show us some great games soon.

Chessqueen · Post by **Chessqueen** » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:46 pm

Tearth wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:14 pm Was pretty painful to watch when Nepo is slowly realizing that the game is lost after his miscalculation, especially because the match was pretty much a draw at some point. Hopefully, he will rest tomorrow and show us some great games soon.

I do NOT have any more hope for GM Nepo to bounce back, the question now is will GM Firouzja become the youngest World Champion next year or the following year. Magnus Carlsen in 2013 at age 22 became the second youngest world chess champion. https://www.2700chess.com/

Cornfed · Post by **Cornfed** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:33 am

Chessqueen wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:46 pm
Tearth wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:14 pm Was pretty painful to watch when Nepo is slowly realizing that the game is lost after his miscalculation, especially because the match was pretty much a draw at some point. Hopefully, he will rest tomorrow and show us some great games soon.
I do NOT have any more hope for GM Nepo to bounce back, the question now is will GM Firouzja become the youngest World Champion next year or the following year. Magnus Carlsen in 2013 at age 22 became the second youngest world chess champion. https://www.2700chess.com/

As to this "question"....what do you think the odds of Firouzja becoming the challenger? 12.5%? 15%
I am going to say no better than 15%.

jdart · Post by **jdart** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:39 am

Firouzja already qualified to the Candidates' Tournament next year. That is a tremendous achievement. Winning that tournament will not be easy, but he has a decent chance. He is currently higher by rating than all other participants.

Chessqueen · Post by **Chessqueen** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:32 am

Accordding to Stockfish and Komodo Black Knight should have retreated back to f6, and not to take helping White to develop

[pgn][Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.05"]
[Round "8.1"]
[White "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Black "Nepomniachtchi, Ian"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "C43"]
[WhiteElo "2855"]
[BlackElo "2782"]
[Annotator "ChessBase"]
[PlyCount "91"]
[EventDate "2021.11.25"]
[EventType "match"]
[EventCountry "UAE"]
[SourceTitle "playchess.com"]
[Source "ChessBase"]
[SourceQuality "1"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. e4 {0} e5 {11} 2. Nf3 {12} Nf6 {6} 3. d4 {5} Nxe4 {11} 4. Bd3 {8} d5 {8} 5.
Nxe5 {8} Nd7 {18} 6. Nxd7 {16} Bxd7 {8} 7. Nd2 {5}[/pgn]

Cornfed · Post by **Cornfed** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:51 am

jdart wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:39 am Firouzja already qualified to the Candidates' Tournament next year. That is a tremendous achievement. Winning that tournament will not be easy, but he has a decent chance. He is currently higher by rating than all other participants.

And do you offer a percentage chance he will qualify to play (presumably) Magnus. I still think no more than 15% chance. Ratings are not engines. He is too young probably.

AlexChess · Post by **AlexChess** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:20 am

Cornfed wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:51 am
jdart wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:39 am Firouzja already qualified to the Candidates' Tournament next year. That is a tremendous achievement. Winning that tournament will not be easy, but he has a decent chance. He is currently higher by rating than all other participants.
And do you offer a percentage chance he will qualify to play (presumably) Magnus. I still think no more than 15% chance. Ratings are not engines. He is too young probably.

No no, next time will be GM Fabiano Caruana

matejst · Post by **matejst** » Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:39 am

First, this match is not over, although Carlsen has a huge advantage -- not only on the board, but especially off the board.

Then, the CT is not a "chess" competition: it is a competition of nerves, poise, and preparation. Tal in 1959 and Fischer in 1971 were so better than the field that we could say they would win, while Kasparov, in 1981, was not only above the field, but he was the personification, the embodiement of the "system".

Since then, there is no dominant champion -- Morozevich -- the greatest talent since Tal -- never had a team (nor the nerves, or the inclination, it seems), Kramnik had serious health problems that cut short his champion's career (just like Misha Tal, although the illness was quite different), and Carlsen is in the second tier of champions.

The CT will be a dog fight, and the luckiest, the one that sleeps the deepest, and one who has the best seconds will win it. And let's not forget technique. Great technique is necessary to win, and technique requires experience. So, I guess Cornfed is right: Firouzja has 15%, just like the others. But if he continues to improve, in a few years, he could be the overwhelming favourite.

Finally, Carlsen is only 30. I would not be surprised if he remains champion in the foreseeable future.

NB: BTW, the youngest world champion was Ruslan Ponomariov. Let's have some respect.

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