Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

[Cornfed]

27.c5 was definitely ?? Instant 0-1.

Analysis by Stockfish 14.1:

...
27...c6 28.f3 Nh6 29.Re4 Ra7 30.Rb4 Rb8 31.a4 Raxb7 32.Rxb7 Rxb7 33.Nd2 Ra7 34.Nc4 f6 35.a5
-+ (-4.01) Depth: 46/64 00:03:29 1431mN

Doesn't take Stockfish to see that. Apparently everyone did...save for Nepo Of The Blunders...poor guy, a ball of nerves from game 1. He basically has cracked under the weight of the moment.

[Chessqueen]

Surprisingly Nepo has +4 -1 =8 score vs Carlsen in classical chess. So easy win .

That was before Carlsen analyzed all of GM Nepo previous win against him, now If Carlsen win tomorrow and win 1 more game which he will, it will be all over for GM Nepo and he can happily collect his 1.5 million for losing to Carlsen

[AlexChess]

Yes, not bad for Nepo anyway

But he should giveaway the prize to restore the prestige of the Soviet Union Chess School

[MartinBryant]

I feel a bit sorry for Nepo now. He has to finish the match but I bet he just wants to go home.
I hope it doesn't affect him psychologically too much in the future.

[Chessqueen]

Yes, not bad for Nepo anyway

But he should giveaway the prize to restore the prestige of the Soviet Union Chess School

I feel that in order for the challenger to get 1.5 million he should earn it. For instance if the total prize is 5 million 3.5 for the winner and 1.5 for the loser, the format for future World championship should change in a way that the challenger will have to concentrate harder by giving only $100,000 for each draw and the rest of the money remaining should be giving 80% to the winner and 20% to the loser plus the previous money that they already won by drawing 7 games which is $700,000.00

Note: That way it is now GM Nepo the challenger will get a little bit over $200,000 for each draw which if he managed to draw 7 games he will still get 1.5 million.

[AdminX]

[pgn]
[Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.08"]
[Round "10.1"]
[White "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Black "Nepomniachtchi, Ian"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[ECO "C42"]
[WhiteElo "2855"]
[BlackElo "2782"]
[Annotator "ChessBase"]
[PlyCount "81"]
[EventDate "2021.11.25"]
[EventType "match"]
[EventCountry "UAE"]
[SourceTitle "playchess.com"]
[Source "ChessBase"]
[SourceQuality "1"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. e4 {0} e5 {6} 2. Nf3 {26} Nf6 {6} (2... Nc6 3. Bb5 Nf6 4. O-O Nxe4 5. d4 Nd6
6. Bxc6 dxc6 7. dxe5 Nf5 8. Qxd8+ Kxd8 9. Rd1+ Ke8 10. Nc3 Be6 11. Ng5 Bc8 12.
h3 Be7 13. Nf3 h5 14. Ne2 Nh4 15. Nxh4 Bxh4 16. g3 Be7 17. Kg2 Bf5 18. c3 c5 {
½-½ (39) Carlsen,M (2855)-Nepomniachtchi,I (2792) Stavanger 2021}) 3. Nxe5 {
125} d6 {7} 4. Nd3 {76} Nxe4 {18} 5. Qe2 {12} Qe7 {7} 6. Nf4 {20} Nf6 {72 6...
Nc6 is the hot move.} 7. d4 {50} Nc6 {5} 8. c3 {1137 [#]} (8. Be3 $1 $14 {
is more appropriate.}) 8... d5 $146 {92} ({Predecessor:} 8... Bf5 9. f3 h5 10.
h4 O-O-O 11. Qxe7 Nxe7 12. Kf2 g6 13. Nh3 Nh7 14. Bc4 d5 {½-½ (41)
Maghsoodloo,P (2706)-Aronian,L (2782) Kolkata 2021}) 9. Nd2 {134} Nd8 {143} 10.
Nf3 {450} Qxe2+ {11} 11. Bxe2 {9} Bd6 {4} 12. O-O {223} O-O {50} 13. Bd3 {97}
Re8 {98} 14. Re1 {84} Rxe1+ {70} 15. Nxe1 {48} Ne6 {4} 16. Nxe6 {50} Bxe6 {4}
17. g3 {45} g6 {155} 18. Ng2 {83} Re8 {58} 19. f3 {123} Nh5 {393} 20. Kf2 {334}
c6 {45} 21. g4 {144} Ng7 {6} 22. Bf4 {9} Bxf4 {77} 23. Nxf4 {3} g5 {64} 24. Ne2
{340} f5 {82} 25. h3 {320} Kf7 {64} 26. Rh1 {302} h6 {235} 27. f4 {274} fxg4 {
399} 28. hxg4 {8} Bxg4 {2} 29. Rxh6 {11} Bf5 {4} 30. Bxf5 {14} Nxf5 {3} 31.
Rh7+ {25} Ng7 {6} 32. fxg5 {11} Kg6 {10} 33. Rh3 {133} Kxg5 {67} 34. Rg3+ {7}
Kf6 {4} 35. Rf3+ {7} Ke7 {8} 36. Nf4 {10} Kd6 {45} 37. Ng6 {74} Re6 $11 {121}
38. Ne5 {3} Ne8 {86} 39. Rf7 {7} Rf6+ {5} 40. Rxf6+ {0} Nxf6 {0} 41. Ke3 {26}
1/2-1/2
[/pgn]

[Chessqueen]

On Friday, 26 November 2021, at 16:30 local time (13:30 CET, 7:30 ET, 12:30 UTC), the first game of the World Championship match between defending champion Magnus Carlsen and challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi will begin in Dubai. But who will win the match?

https://en.chessbase.com/post/carlsen-o ... o-will-win

I guess smart money says Carlsen, but man would I love to see a upset!

I believe that both at the end will end up winning specially GM Nepo, since he will only get probably 7 draws and will make 1.5 million which is equal to a little bit over $214,000 per draw. Where else does a chess player get around $200,000 per draw ?

[Cornfed]

On Friday, 26 November 2021, at 16:30 local time (13:30 CET, 7:30 ET, 12:30 UTC), the first game of the World Championship match between defending champion Magnus Carlsen and challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi will begin in Dubai. But who will win the match?

https://en.chessbase.com/post/carlsen-o ... o-will-win

I guess smart money says Carlsen, but man would I love to see a upset!

I believe that both at the end will end up winning specially GM Nepo, since he will only get probably 7 draws and will make 1.5 million which is equal to a little bit over $214,000 per draw. Where else does a chess player get around $200,000 per draw ?

Its the effort to get there - that is basically what the 'reward' is for, getting there...more if you win of course. Of course, a chunk will go to the seconds...a bigger chunk to the respective governments.

Think about this:
The Winner gets 60% so Magnus will get 1.2 Million Euro (I think that's right) ..PLUS he is guaranteed at least whatever the loser of the next World Championship will get next time. So in reality, a win over Nepo is truly worth roughly what the TOTAL prize fund is this time assuming the price fund were to be the same the next time.

It's good to be king.

[Ras]

It's good to be king.

Compared to how much money e.g. football stars make, it's still rather modest, but I'm happy for Magnus that he can make that much money from playing chess that well. And also for Nepo even as likely loser of the match, but the fact that he's there to challenge Magnus makes him deserve it. Double respect for him how he kept his composure in the press conference after game 9, even as he was visibly on the brink of breaking into tears.

[M ANSARI]

Nepo weakness is he tends to play fast and impulsively and put time pressure on his opponent. This might work well in rapid but really not a good idea in classic. A lot of people seem to think that allowing the bishop to be trapped was a huge blunder ... and it was ... but I was watching Judit Polgar commentary and she actually had mentioned it as a move but then her co commentator Giri quickly showed that moving the pawn was not a move as it strands the bishop. According to Nepo he had counted on the Knight to bodyguard the extended bishop but just completely forgot that moving the pawn cancels that option. He spent almost 5 minutes before playing that move and I think that is where the craziness is. If this was played in say 10 seconds I could understand it ... but 5 minutes !!! Hard to explain!