Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

[Chessqueen]

But...

If engine fans here think that engines rated 3000+ ELO (up to 3900 ELO+ for some ratings lists) cannot easily beat Magnus rated 2900 ELO, what are we doing here???

What is the REAL Stockfish 14.1-dev ELO playing 2 hours / 40 moves + 1 hour / 20 moves + 15 mins + 30 secs / ALL?

Most of US do NOT believe that that Magnus rated around 2860 can beat Stockfisk or Komodo Dragon, but we believe those engines would have a tough time beating Carlsen at 2 pawns odds at standard time control, but in T/C of 20 Minutes, Komodo Dragon will have an edge in 10 games.

[Chessqueen]

But...

If engine fans here think that engines rated 3000+ ELO (up to 3900 ELO+ for some ratings lists) cannot easily beat Magnus rated 2900 ELO, what are we doing here???

What is the REAL Stockfish 14.1-dev ELO playing 2 hours / 40 moves + 1 hour / 20 moves + 15 mins + 30 secs / ALL?

Most of US do NOT believe that Magnus rated around 2860 can beat Stockfisk or Komodo Dragon, but we believe those engines would have a tough time beating Carlsen being up two juicers or 2 pawns odds at standard time control, but in T/C of 20 Minutes, Komodo Dragon will have an edge in 10 games

Note: I Believe that in 5 more years Carlsen can still beat Stockfish XX being up two juicers or 2 pawns odds at standard time control.

[jdart]

Nice recap commentary on Game 6 by an IM:

Nepo could theoretically have drawn the 7-piece endgame they were in, but at a crucial point he failed to make one of the only two drawing Queen moves. Carlsen was very alert and did not let him escape.

[AlexChess]

I have seen that a lot of rating lists (Chess Engines Diary, FGRL) have already lowered overall ELO values, I think I will do the same on my SuperBlitz (now based on SPCC range)

[AlexChess]

But...

If engine fans here think that engines rated 3000+ ELO (up to 3900 ELO+ for some ratings lists) cannot easily beat Magnus rated 2900 ELO, what are we doing here???

What is the REAL Stockfish 14.1-dev ELO playing 2 hours / 40 moves + 1 hour / 20 moves + 15 mins + 30 secs / ALL?

Most of US do NOT believe that Magnus rated around 2860 can beat Stockfisk or Komodo Dragon, but we believe those engines would have a tough time beating Carlsen being up two juicers or 2 pawns odds at standard time control, but in T/C of 20 Minutes, Komodo Dragon will have an edge in 10 games

Note: I Believe that in 5 more years Carlsen can still beat Stockfish XX being up two juicers or 2 pawns odds at standard time control.

Probably all very top GMs already know the answer having played a lot of games at long TC with best engines to improve their own strength, but they don't want to reveal it, at least for free

[Chessqueen]

Nice recap commentary on Game 6 by an IM:

Nepo could theoretically have drawn the 7-piece endgame they were in, but at a crucial point he failed to make one of the only two drawing Queen moves. Carlsen was very alert and did not let him escape.

Most top engines do NOT even need 7 piece endgame to find the best 2 moves, I already let Komodo Dragon 2.5.1 and Stockfish 14 played the exact position without using any endgame Tablebase at all and they found those two best moves Qc2 and Qb1.

Note: Also when GM Anand was making comments during the game he immediately told us that in order to draw the Queen has to stay in the back and never to go in front as it did, by Pinning the Knight.

[Cornfed]

Note: Also when GM Anand was making comments during the game he immediately told us that in order to draw the Queen has to stay in the back and never to go in front as it did, by Pinning the Knight.

Engine 'analysis' doesn't tell you that. It can't....and it really seems to be beyond the power of GUI programmers to put something like that into words based on mere output.

As interesting as things programs like DecodeChess might be to some...they are at this point unable to replace GM's in the area of communicating ideas.

[Leto]

Instead,
would be interesting a match Carlsen - Stockfish running on TCEC hardware with same TC and rules (at least, no tactical blunders )

It wouldn't be interesting at all the latest Stockfish would destroy Carlsen even if it were given a handicap of 30 minutes for the game. All you have to do to know what I'm saying is the truth is to analyse the games with the latest Stockfish to see how often these top human Grandmasters blunder.

Carlsen does NOT blunder to often in World Chess Championship since he is always concentrated on the board and does not take to many chances, he might not always play the best move recommended by Stockfish which is not a blunder, but 95% of the time Carlsen play one of the best 3 moves, he Will Never Play 4th Best Move.

Note: Why don't you instead analyze the games of all previous World Chess Champions and see if they always select one of the best 3 moves recommended by Stockfish, or at least 75% of the time.

I believe Carlsen is the best human chess player of all time and i'd be surprised if he isn't the most accurate human chess player ever.

[dkappe]

Note: Also when GM Anand was making comments during the game he immediately told us that in order to draw the Queen has to stay in the back and never to go in front as it did, by Pinning the Knight.

Engine 'analysis' doesn't tell you that. It can't....and it really seems to be beyond the power of GUI programmers to put something like that into words based on mere output.

As interesting as things programs like DecodeChess might be to some...they are at this point unable to replace GM's in the area of communicating ideas.

DecodeChess is just a bunch of heuristics wrapped around stockfish. Want to know what the “threats” are? Get the score of the best move, then play a null move and see which of the opponent moves are over a certain threshold. Maybe even put some words to it (“the white Queen is threatening checkmate on g7”).

ChessCoach (https://github.com/chrisbutner/ChessCoach) looks more promising but is currently full of sound and fury, etc.

[lkaufman]

But...

If engine fans here think that engines rated 3000+ ELO (up to 3900 ELO+ for some ratings lists) cannot easily beat Magnus rated 2900 ELO, what are we doing here???

What is the REAL Stockfish 14.1-dev ELO playing 2 hours / 40 moves + 1 hour / 20 moves + 15 mins + 30 secs / ALL?

Of course it depends on definition of REAL Elo; there are no humans rated high enough to define a human rating for the top engines now, but we can estimate pretty well. The SSDF rating list uses 40/2 hours so that is our starting point. I think the list was accurate in human terms for 2800 level engines 20 years ago, but human ratings are about 100 elo stricter now based on studies of matching human with engine moves, so we subtract 100 from their ratings. They have Stockfish 13 at 3573 on 8 cores, so that becomes 3473. Presumably SF 14.1 on 8 cores would be about 3500 on that scale. But it is known that engine vs engine ratings exaggerate rating differences in human terms, though perhaps not by a huge percentage. So my best estimate for a human FIDE rating for Stockfish 14.1 on 8 cores at 40/2 hours would be roughly 3400. However this isn't testable even in theory, because the rating formula isn't very reliable beyond about 300 elo difference, the results would depend primarily on whether someone can create a book to avoid draws when playing Black. My interpretation of a 3400 rating would be that the engine could win a match from Carlsen giving him pawn and move (i.e. f7 pawn) odds, but Carlsen should win at pawn and two moves or two non-edge White pawns. That's based on b or c pawn being worth about 300 elo at this level, f or g pawn about 400, and playing first about 50 (another 100 for a full extra move). These are roughly the values I get from computer vs computer odds games. Of course at faster time controls the engine ratings would be much higher.