Can Black win?

[David Dahlem]

I found this position, from Tim Krabbe at http://www.xs4all.nl/~timkr/chess2/minor.htm

[d]6k1/8/4p3/4Pp1p/5P1P/3Rn2K/6p1/8 b - - 0 1

In Chan - Depasquale, Laoag 1985 1...g1B was the only winning move: 2.Rd8+ Kf7 3.Rh8 Nd5 4.Kg3 Be3 5.Rxh5 Bxf4+ 6.Kf3 Kg7 7.Kf2 Bh6 and White resigned.

Can Black really win? This is what Stockfish 1.6.3s says:

42 56:21 5.386.338,398 1.593.171 -1.81 g2g1B Rd3b3 Bg1f2 Rb3b2 Ne3g4 Rb2c2 Kg8f7 Rc2c7+ Kf7f8 Rc7c8+ Kf8e7 Rc8c7+ Ke7d8 Rc7c6 Kd8d7 Rc6c2 Bf2b6 Rc2d2+ Kd7e7 Rd2b2 Bb6c7 Rb2e2 Bc7d8 Kh3g3 Ke7e8 Kg3h3 Bd8b6 Re2c2 Bb6a5 Kh3g3 Ng4e3 Rc2a2 Ba5e1+ Kg3f3 Ne3d5 Ra2a8+ Ke8f7 Ra8h8 Be1d2 Rh8a8 Nd5e7 Ra8a1 Ne7g6 Ra1a7+ Kf7e8 Ra7a8+ Ke8d7 Ra8a4 Kd7e7 Ra4a7+ Ke7f8 Ra7a4 Bd2e1 Ra4a7 Ng6xh4+ Kf3e2 Be1b4 Ra7h7 Nh4g6

[yanquis1972]

shredder is stagnant @ -1.48...


Engine: Deep Shredder 12 UCI (2048 MB)
by Stefan Meyer-Kahlen

21/40 0:01 -1.32 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Kf7
5.Rc7+ Ke8 6.Rc6 Kd7 7.Rc2 (11.379.901) 8386
SB:6.339

22/41 0:01 -1.32 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Kf7
5.Rc7+ Ke8 6.Rc6 Kd7 7.Rc2 Bb6
8.Rd2+ Ke7 9.Rb2 Bc5 10.Kg3 Ne3
11.Rb5 Bd4 12.Rb4 Bc3 13.Rb7+ (15.108.352) 8421
SB:9.372

23/37 0:02 -1.32 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Kf7
5.Rc7+ Ke8 6.Rc6 Kd7 7.Rc2 (17.798.154) 8451
SB:14.249

24/41 0:03 -1.32 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Kf7
5.Rc7+ Ke8 6.Rc6 Kd7 7.Rc2 Bb6
8.Rd2+ Ke7 9.Rb2 Bc5 10.Kg3 Ne3
11.Rb5 Bd4 12.Rb4 Bc3 13.Rb7+ (25.093.299) 8336
SB:28.031

25/46 0:08 -1.38 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb8+ Kd7 7.Kg2 Bxh4
8.Rh8 Ne3+ 9.Kf3 Nd5 10.Rxh5 Be1
11.Rh2 Bb4 12.Ra2 Bc5 13.Ra6 Ke7
14.Ra5 Bd4 (84.012.304) 9382
SB:89.616

26/44 0:11 -1.42 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb8+ Kd7 7.Kg2 Bxh4
8.Rh8 Ne3+ 9.Kf3 Nd5 10.Rxh5 (106.321.657) 9439
SB:133.800

27/53 0:24 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Kg3 Ne3 8.Rb5 Be7
9.Rb6 Kf7 10.Rb7 (247.925.085) 9932
SB:320.122

28/51 0:30 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+
8.Kg3 Ne4+ 9.Kf3 Kf7 10.Rb2 Be7
11.Rc2 Nc5 12.Rd2 Na6 13.Kg3 Nb4
14.Rd7 Nd5 (307.673.059) 10032
SB:438.615

29/48 0:36 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+
8.Kg3 Ne4+ 9.Kf3 Kf7 10.Rb2 Be7
11.Rc2 Nc5 12.Rd2 Na6 13.Kg3 Nb4
14.Rd7 Nd5 (367.794.936) 9998
SB:604.292

30/48 0:48 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+
8.Kg3 Ne4+ 9.Kf3 Kf7 10.Rb2 Be7
11.Rc2 Nc5 12.Rd2 Na6 13.Kg3 Nb4
14.Rd7 Nd5 (474.508.125) 9799
SB:1.098.179

31/56 1:18 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rb8+ Kf7
5.Rb7+ Ke8 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rb5 Be7 8.Rb6 Kf7
9.Rb3 (784.482.367) 10001
SB:1.829.210

32/57 3:21 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Be1
5.Re2 Bb4 6.Rb2 Bc5 (2.209.420.078) 10939
SB:3.611.811

33/59 4:20 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Be1
5.Re2 Bb4 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+ 8.Kg2 Ne4
9.Rc4 Kf7 10.Rc2 (2.761.152.691) 10580
SB:6.897.626

34/59 5:25 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Be1
5.Re2 Bb4 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+ 8.Kg2 Ne4
9.Rc4 Kf7 10.Rc2 (3.364.383.573) 10324
SB:11.155.580

35/60 7:49 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Be1
5.Re2 Bb4 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+ 8.Kg2 Ne4
9.Kf3 Kf8 10.Ra2 Be7 11.Rc2 Nc5
12.Ra2 Kf7 13.Rd2 Na6 14.Kg3 Nb4 (4.736.088.284) 10090
SB:18.633.558

36/63 11:50 -1.48 1...g1B 2.Rb3 Bf2 3.Rb2 Ng4 4.Rc2 Be1
5.Re2 Bb4 6.Rb2 Bc5 7.Rc2 Nf2+ 8.Kg2 Ne4
9.Kf3 Kf8 10.Ke2 Ke7 11.Kf3 Ke8
12.Rb2 Be7 13.Rc2 Nc5 14.Rg2 Kf7 (6.893.450.069) 9705
SB:38.207.476


i'm going to try a monte carlo analysis...my guess is draw is the overwhelming result with some black wins.