I am still doubting, then, that this number has any bearing on the usefulness of IID. Above, you wrote this:
When I do IID, I also do it on the null move. Even if I would have a 100% probability that I would always pick the correct cut move, if there is one, from amongst the real moves, I still could benifit from IID by abandoning the null move at lower depth when it turns out to be no good. This seems to falsify your statement above.bob wrote:But you are missing the _key_ point. At a node where we are going to fail high, as opposed to a node where we will search all moves, when we fail high, we do so 90+% of the time on the _first_ move searched. Without using IID at all. So you have 10% (or less) to make an improvement in. Not much room. IID is not free.
In the second place, including the hash move in the count makes the percentage rather meaningless for calculating if IID could help, as one typically does not do IID if a hash move is available. Most of the time (when the search is stable, and your 92% is valid and has not dropped to a lower value of a root fail) the hash move would be the best move from a one-less-deep search, and there would be nothing to iterate: the only 'iteration' not yet done is the final one.
The question was: "would it be useful to do IID in nodes where no hash move or hash depth is available?" If the overwhelming majority of the nodes included in the statistic you give could never trigger IID, I don't see how the number could tell us anything about the cost/benifit of IID. What is relevant is how the chances for a quick cut move without IID are in cases where you would actually do IID. I.e where the node was not searched before at any depth, so no hash move, and you till had to decide if you were going to try a real move or a null move.