Will a human ever make 2900?

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We a human ever make 2900

Poll ended at Mon Mar 16, 2015 1:41 am

Yes
47
90%
No
5
10%
It's not possible
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 52

Lyudmil Tsvetkov
Posts: 6052
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:41 pm

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

jefk wrote:
Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote: So forget all about theory: theory brings you nothing, it only handicaps you intellectually.


that's a rather bold statement; would you also say 'forget about
all endgame theory'?

Indeed humans cannot calculate an endgame as eg a syzygy tablebase
can do, but there are other ways of mastering endgame theory.

In a similar way there is still scope of finding new ways in opening theory,
which btw is also what i have been doing with the help of comp evaluation (although not perfect,i admit, as you often are pointing out here, but still gradualy improving in fact partly as result of people like you who suggest possible improvements) and playing games. For me that's the creative part even although its not on the board, but in the preparation stage.

If Carlsen is that good in your opinion, ask him to play some standard
games on ICC against a few stockfish accounts, including mine (currently nr 1 again in standard at 2880), i bet he will not come further than about
2750 or so, because those ratings are inaccurate; on playchess the top comp ratings also have decreased, and i bet Carlsen in the engine room would not get further than 2650 or so.

So summarizing i do *not* mean/advise memorizing 'current' theory, as eg indicated by these percentages in the typical chess base .ctg books, but more looking at eg top accounts in playchess, or bbuilders games on ICC, listening to advise by seconds who also are good in computer chess. Take eg these boring Berlin games, imho you first play Rd1+ to prevent the black king escaping to c8, and only later moves as h3! followed by a later Nc3.
When Carlsen played against Anand he did not know such things.
And there certainly is scope for improvement, provided such a human
indeed wants to exceed the 2900 barrier. If a bloke as MC wouldnt like it,
well then maybe younger guys as Wesley So, Anish Giri, or others will later do it anyway, and become a new generation of world champions.

Not creative ? Well if a person is very creative then maybe chess is not the right game, and becoming an artist in eg painting would be more appropriate and more fun. Eg after my first book, about chess , i now am thinking of becoming a writer about futuristic thrillers, a mix of Sf and crime.
Chess is not the only intellectual occupation out there, you know.

jef


:D :D :D

Thanks for thinking I had some suggestions for computer chess.

No one can refute a statement like:
- opening accounts for 5% of performance
- late endgame accounts for 5% of performance
- and middlegame accounts for 90% of performance

If everything is decided into the middlegame, why study opening and endgame theory? Better just concentrate on playing/replaying/engine analysing thousands of middlegame positions.

But I agree that you should know endgame theory, you really can not do without that, as those are the basics, and besides in endgame theory everything is finite and pretty much solved.
What concerns opening theory, however, it is endless, you do not know where to start and where to finish. And you also do not know if that theory is true, as it is not clear at all, theory changes with time and understanding, the lines are very deep, etc., so really difficult to make sense of it all.

Engine room? What does Carlsen have to do with an engine room? Human-computer competition is difficult under standard conditions, primarily because of 3 reasons:
- humans get tired, computers do not, so at some point the human just can make a mistake as he is tired after a prolonged game
- humans get nervous sometimes, computers never get nervous; well, you have a very good position, even winning, and suddenly you get nervous, for whatever reasons, you can not think soundly, make a rash move, and you lose the game, that never happens with computers
- humans get distracted; well, you might be well concentrated for a long time, but then suddenly someone distracts you, even if briefly, you lose concentration, and make a blunder, meaning the game is over. Nothing similar happens to computers

The only advantage of humans is better knowledge, but that is already not sufficient to offset the 3 abovementioned computer advantages, as engines also advance in knowledge.
Therefore, the only reasonable way to match computers and humans would be playing under strictly Fischer conditions: in a back room, with no cameras, any annoying buzzing sounds and sensation-hungry crowds staring at you.

I bet Carlsen would have good chances to perform well, even win a match against current top engines under such conditions.

If Carlsen knows the Berlin or not, I do not know, but it is a fact he performs very well there. If engines say Carlsen is bad in a certain position, for example the last game of the recent final with Anand, and Carlsen himself believes he is having advantage, I am inclined to trust Carlsen rather than the engine, even if SF and Komodo.

As said, engines play weakest in the opening, they are much better in the middlegame and endgame, simply because those stages are less complex.

I really do not understand a person, who memorises 25 or 30 book moves, has the luck to play all of them in a certain OTB game, winning, and this makes him happy. What is there to be happy about, that you memorised something successfully, when you did not play even a single move of your own, you did not even think about it?
I myself, would prefer to play f3 on the first move, however suspicious that may seem, but think about the position throughout the game. Btw., do you know that the Barnes Defence, e4 f6, is actually not that bad, if that is true, there are good chances f3 is even better?

Futuristic thrillers? Sounds good.
Stockfish and crime? Even better. :D (I imagine one of the main SF contributors assassinating another main SF contributor, simply because the former stole and implemented as his an idea that was actually the latter's; imagine the fuss on this forum)

But seriously, no need to write about that, this is already part of history, the future has come to stay with us a long long time ago.

Gary Linscott managing the framework, pooling together the efforts of people all over the world, working for nothing more than the simple task to create the strongest engine on Earth. Who would have believed that to be possible some 20-30 years ago, when Clarke and Asimov were still active?

Or even better, a Chinese CPU contributor appearing yesterday for the first time on the SF framework. Is not this sensational? I think you can start your next novel like that: John Stevenson expected everything from the framework, but not ever seeing a Chinese red flad waving across the contributor machines bar, and you can choose for a title something like The Chinese have come, or Red Flag.

Good luck. :)
jefk
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:07 pm
Location: the Netherlands
Full name: Jef Kaan

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by jefk »

hi,
[quote="Lyudmil Tsvetkov"]
:D :D :D
>Thanks for thinking I had some suggestions for computer chess.

well, whether intended or not, those StockF programmers
read your comments, but not all suggestions are easy
to implement. and even then, such improvement should be
tested after coding to see if they give a real improvement,
considering maybe sometime a slowdown of the search.

>No one can refute a statement like:
>- opening accounts for 5% of performance

which would be enough to bring Carlsen from eg 2865 to >2900

>If everything is decided into the middlegame, why study opening and >endgame theory?

certainly true for beginners, but when joining a chessclub,
knowing a bit about openings tends to help your confidence.
but indeed, not much time should be spent on it.

>But I agree that you should know endgame theory, you really can not do without that, as those are the basics, and besides in endgame theory >everything is finite and pretty much solved.

according to Capablanca, certainly

>As said, engines play weakest in the opening,

that's why they need a good opening book.
And building such a book according to latest theory,
as sometimes described in Gm books (or the NIC yearbooks)
tends to improve the engine books. A new trend,
however, believe it or not, is that engine analysis
at the endnodes actually helps in finding middle game plans
eg lines resulting in a position with an advantage,
and thus vice versa, the best opening books, have
an impact on 'opening theory' improvements again.

And i know about such things, having spent years on it,
certainly not recommended for others, it was a
superspecialization i admit, but not as boring as you
might think. In fact i had many eureka moments when
trying to find 'winning' plans for White. Later on however
these book improvements were followed by refutations
again. The point being, that such equalizing variations
for Black tend to be rather narrow, and thats why a
good book helps, and that is why a good knowledge
about such (sharp) lines would help for super-GM's.
Mostly however i nowadays see some boring e4 e5
lines instead of a nice Najdorf or so.

>there are good chances f3 is even better?

playable, yep, but not recommended i would say.
But it's up to you.

Futuristic thrillers? Sounds good.
[b]Stockfish and crime[/b]?

Nope SF was not Stockfish but SF = Science Fictiion (and crime).
and some espionage as well. Maybe a bit like the movie
'Cypher' or so; but then much better again, ofcourse. So, not so much
about chess, although some game theory can be applied when writing
about financial or economical plots. Sure I could talk about espionage
when people would be trying to learn about my opening innovations,
but at least the Kgb (now SVR, isnt on my trail; as far as i know at least
;)

>Good luck. :)

thank you.

jef

PS maybe i still can write a second chess book, but
this time from the Black perspective, and at advanced
level telling these super-GM's how to equalize against
all known 'best' openings, and some others, eg
including 1.f3! or so. If a publisher is interested they
can transfer an advance of about 89 thousand Euro's
to my account and then we can start talking.

[/quote]
jefk
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:07 pm
Location: the Netherlands
Full name: Jef Kaan

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by jefk »

one little additional comment

[quote="Lyudmil Tsvetkov"]

No one can refute a statement like:
- opening accounts for 5% of performance
[/quote]

well tell that to all these super-Gm's like Kramnik and so on i
would say. And the editors of New in Chess with their yearbooks
and so on; and last but not least Chessbase gmbh.

What i understood about the time spending by most GM's
(not Carlsen) is that they spend more than 50 pct
of their time on opening study. Even some IM's spend
lots of time on openings, especially when they are a s
second for a GM in a tournament or so.

Spending 95 pct of your time on tactics and
middlegame as you suggest might be the best way
for talented youngsters -after the beginners phase- to achieve
a Fide title, but later on they probably like to put some
icecream on the cake by improving their openings as well.

You don't have to agree with this point of view,
but your opinion certainly isn't the current consensus
within chess trainer circles. Not even in Russia
(where they recommended 1.d4 for decades,
btw, not without proper reason, in fact).

sure, f3 is a good move, against the Gruenfeld,
and not as choice by an engine when analyzing
at movenr 3, but as result of a minimax after
having done weeks of comprehensive analysis
eg with a tool as Aquarium (ask Larry Kaufman).
Although the program Bookup was the first to
recognize this (calling it 'backsolving') my program
Bookbuilder could handle much bigger files, and
thus was much more suitable for my purposes
some 15 yrs ago when i started this endeavor.

Result now is that i can state with confidence
that chess is a draw (in fact i consider it 'solved').
And a spin-off besides such a theoretical result,
is a good opening book; which is a modest statement.

Discarded and ignored by most Gm's who don't know
anything about mathematics or game theory, and probaby
have never heard about eg a certain Johnny Neumann who
has proven with his minimax theorem that this is giving
the best result (rather than these percentages which
chessbase users are looking at when selecting
or memorizing openings); innovation and
paradigm shifts occur slowly in this world.
But the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
How do you think i got on top of eg this list
https://www.iccf.com/event?id=43698

jef

PS and i don't have to buy a 'title' at the Fide Arena
site, in a couple of years i'll be a correspondence GM.
Because my opening knowledge, for this purpose (ICCF)
stored on my disc and not in my brain *does* help;
a lot, in fact whether you believe it or not.
jefk
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:07 pm
Location: the Netherlands
Full name: Jef Kaan

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by jefk »

little correction:
[quote="jefk"]
never heard about eg a certain Johnny Neumann who
has proven with his minimax theorem [/quote]

John(ny) *von* Neumann
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann

ofcourse nowadays minimax is narrowed done
with alfa beta and in addition lots of other tricks,
but my point is that minimax also works
when applied in opening theory.

Look at the socalled large (and outdate) ECO ;
why would you play a line ending in =+
when you can aim for +=, for example ?

Obviously the Gm's who (try to) write books about
opening theory (with lots of help by their editors i
presume, but a GM title, besides the fact that it doesnt
make you a mathematician, also doesnt make you a
writer, or someone proficient in the English language)
still by head are using this minimax principle, the
only one consciously using this principle is a
senior (and worldchamp) GM, you know who.

yet somehow when talking about playing (Gm) games
all rationality gets lost, and only because centuries
ago a certain Garry Kasparov, only educated in
literature (and some chess) told Chessbase the
best way to look at openings would be with statistics.
Statistics ? yes (brrrrr.....), statistics (von Neumann
laughing from his grave).

Sure, it makes sense to look at complete games,
but then first you have to correct them for all
errors, secondly you have to take rating (differences)
into account, and finally you have to be aware
that in such a way you only look at the past,
not at possible improvements in opening theory,
which in some ultrasecret research apparently
are being sought in multi-manyear projects
done by hundreds of GM seconds all over the world
all redoing each others work, and spending
tons of gigawatts on computerpower.


jef
carldaman
Posts: 2287
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2012 2:13 am

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by carldaman »

jefk wrote:little correction:
jefk wrote: never heard about eg a certain Johnny Neumann who
has proven with his minimax theorem
John(ny) *von* Neumann
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann

ofcourse nowadays minimax is narrowed done
with alfa beta and in addition lots of other tricks,
but my point is that minimax also works
when applied in opening theory.

Look at the socalled large (and outdate) ECO ;
why would you play a line ending in =+
when you can aim for +=, for example ?

Obviously the Gm's who (try to) write books about
opening theory (with lots of help by their editors i
presume, but a GM title, besides the fact that it doesnt
make you a mathematician, also doesnt make you a
writer, or someone proficient in the English language)
still by head are using this minimax principle, the
only one consciously using this principle is a
senior (and worldchamp) GM, you know who.

yet somehow when talking about playing (Gm) games
all rationality gets lost, and only because centuries
ago a certain Garry Kasparov, only educated in
literature (and some chess) told Chessbase the
best way to look at openings would be with statistics.
Statistics ? yes (brrrrr.....), statistics (von Neumann
laughing from his grave).

Sure, it makes sense to look at complete games,
but then first you have to correct them for all
errors, secondly you have to take rating (differences)
into account, and finally you have to be aware
that in such a way you only look at the past,
not at possible improvements in opening theory,
which in some ultrasecret research apparently
are being sought in multi-manyear projects
done by hundreds of GM seconds all over the world
all redoing each others work, and spending
tons of gigawatts on computerpower.


jef
I've often wondered what it would take Chessbase to add a (much needed) minimax capability to their tree feature...

Regards,
CL
jefk
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:07 pm
Location: the Netherlands
Full name: Jef Kaan

Re: Will a human ever make 2900?

Post by jefk »

[quote="carldaman"]
I've often wondered what it would take Chessbase to add a (much needed) minimax capability to their tree feature...CL[/quote]

not much i guess, but the question then is which eval
to use for a certain position in the let's check feature.
Well a possible answer is simply the average,
if the depth of those evals is long enough.

For the rest, initially i wouldn't expect very good results,
because the result is depending on which nodes have been
analyzed. But it would point out better directions for
further analysis i think.

jef

PS also btw use of their (CB) large 'live book' is not working when
playing with an engine, at least in my experience (F13 GUI)