btw., capturing on a3 was the only move.
Bd6, suggested by engines, almost certainly loses.
so that Carlsen again, like me

, found the right move.
after Bd6 c5 (my suggestion) Bc7, I let SF run some shootouts, and it scores an astounding amount of wins, and even in the games when it does not win, score reaches over 100 cps.
not a single white loss so far.
some games:
[pgn][Event "Shootout (Stockfish864POPCNT, Blitz 1m)"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "r1br2k1/1pbnqppp/p1p1pn2/2Pp4/3P4/PPN1PN2/2BB1PPP/R2Q1RK1 w - - 0 3"]
[PlyCount "165"]
3. e4 {0.29/16 1} dxe4 {0.18/20 2} 4. Nxe4 {0.27/17 1} h6 {0.21/20 2} 5. Re1 {
0.25/19 1} b6 {0.31/22 6} 6. b4 {0.29/20 2} a5 {0.29/21 2} 7. cxb6 {0.26/19 1}
Bxb6 {0.18/21 6} 8. Nc5 {0.36/21 1} Bc7 {0.50/20 2} 9. h3 {0.38/19 1} Nxc5 {0.
34/20 3} 10. bxc5 {0.25/20 1} Ba6 {0.19/20 1} 11. Qc1 {0.28/20 1} Kf8 {0.52/20
1} 12. Ne5 {0.48/20 1} Bxe5 {0.37/20 2} 13. dxe5 {0.52/19 1} Nd5 {0.39/20 2}
14. Bxa5 {0.35/19 1} Rd7 {0.34/20 1} 15. Bb4 {0.33/17 1} Bb5 {0.49/20 1} 16.
Bd2 {0.44/21 1} Rda7 {0.49/21 1} 17. Re4 {0.54/20 1} Qxc5 {0.51/23 3} 18. a4 {
0.44/24 1} Ba6 {0.36/23 1} 19. Bd1 {0.43/23 1} Qxc1 {0.39/24 1} 20. Rxc1 {0.39/
25 1} Rc8 {0.34/25 3 (Rb7)} 21. Rc5 {0.38/26 2} Rd7 {0.35/23 1 (Rb7)} 22. Bf3 {
0.34/24 1} Rb7 {0.33/25 1} 23. Rd4 {0.34/24 5 (Kh2)} Rb2 {0.38/22 1} 24. Be4 {
0.34/21 1} Ke8 {0.39/19 2 (Ra2)} 25. g4 {0.37/18 1 (f4)} Rb3 {0.34/18 1} 26.
Kh2 {0.33/19 1} Ra3 {0.30/20 1} 27. f3 {0.32/20 1} Ra2 {0.42/19 1} 28. Kg3 {0.
33/19 1} Ra1 {0.33/19 1} 29. h4 {0.43/19 1 (Bc1)} Kf8 {0.37/19 1} 30. Kf2 {0.
38/19 2 (h5)} Kg8 {0.36/19 0} 31. f4 {0.37/19 1 (a5)} Rf1+ {0.41/19 0} 32. Kg2
{0.50/17 1} Rd1 {0.43/17 0} 33. Kh2 {0.43/18 1} Ra1 {0.47/18 0} 34. a5 {0.43/
19 1} Ra2 {0.54/18 1 (Ra3)} 35. Kg3 {0.58/19 1} Ra3+ {0.47/20 1} 36. Kf2 {0.41/
19 1} Ra2 {0.54/20 1} 37. f5 {0.42/21 1} Ra1 {0.49/21 1} 38. Bg2 {0.47/19 0}
Ra2 {0.45/19 0} 39. Bf3 {0.34/19 1} Bb5 {0.54/18 1} 40. Bxd5 {0.68/18 0} exd5 {
0.65/15 0} 41. Rdxd5 {0.51/18 1} Ra8 {0.52/18 0} 42. Rd6 {0.55/19 1 (Rd7)}
R8xa5 {0.49/17 0} 43. Rd8+ {0.54/17 1} Kh7 {0.54/1 0} 44. e6 {0.62/18 0} fxe6 {
0.58/18 0} 45. fxe6 {0.62/18 0} Ra7 {0.59/17 0} 46. Kg3 {0.69/19 1 (Kf3)} Re7 {
0.72/16 0} 47. Rd6 {0.67/17 1} Re8 {0.80/15 0 (Ra3+)} 48. Re5 {0.68/16 0 (g5)}
Ra1 {0.84/14 0 (Ra3+)} 49. Be3 {0.76/17 0} Ra3 {0.82/14 0} 50. Kf4 {0.89/16 1
(e7)} Kg8 {1.06/15 0} 51. Bc5 {1.08/16 0} Rc3 {1.08/16 0} 52. e7 {1.16/16 0}
Rc4+ {1.18/16 0 (Bd3)} 53. Rd4 {1.37/16 0} Rxd4+ {1.38/13 0} 54. Bxd4 {1.32/18
1} Kf7 {1.32/13 0} 55. Bc5 {1.14/17 0} Bc4 {1.00/14 0} 56. g5 {1.76/19 1 (Re3)}
Bd3 {1.64/16 0} 57. Re3 {1.99/21 0} Bg6 {1.99/17 0} 58. Ke5 {1.91/20 0} Bh5 {
1.94/13 0} 59. gxh6 {2.27/19 1} gxh6 {2.30/15 0} 60. Kd6 {2.46/18 0} Ra8 {2.46/
13 0} 61. Re5 {2.68/17 0} Bg4 {2.53/15 0} 62. Re1 {3.57/18 0} Bh3 {3.18/14 0}
63. Re2 {4.12/19 0} Re8 {4.14/16 0} 64. Rf2+ {4.33/21 0} Kg7 {4.33/17 0} 65.
Bd4+ {4.47/21 0} Kg8 {4.47/17 0} 66. Rf6 {4.52/21 0} Bc8 {4.52/16 0} 67. Rg6+ {
4.59/20 0} Kh7 {4.59/18 0} 68. Rg7+ {4.66/21 0} Kh8 {4.66/1 0} 69. Rg4+ {4.66/
23 0} Kh7 {4.66/1 0} 70. Rf4 {4.66/24 0} Kg6 {4.66/19 0 (Kg8)} 71. Rf8 {4.66/
24 0} Rxe7 {4.66/22 0} 72. Kxe7 {4.66/27 0} Bg4 {4.66/26 0} 73. Rf6+ {4.66/28 0
} Kh5 {4.66/28 0} 74. Rxc6 {4.66/30 0} Bd1 {4.66/28 0} 75. Be3 {4.66/30 0} Kxh4
{4.66/28 0} 76. Rxh6+ {4.66/31 0} Kg3 {4.66/23 0 (Kg4)} 77. Rf6 {4.66/30 0} Bc2
{4.66/22 0 (Bb3)} 78. Kd6 {4.66/30 0} Bb1 {4.66/18 0 (Bb3)} 79. Ke5 {4.66/28 0}
Ba2 {4.66/20 0 (Kg4)} 80. Rf8 {4.66/26 0} Bb1 {4.66/23 0 (Bb3)} 81. Kd6 {4.66/
26 0} Ba2 {4.66/16 0 (Kg4)} 82. Bd4 {4.66/27 0} Bb1 {4.66/18 0 (Bb3)} 83. Kd5 {
4.66/28 0} Ba2+ {4.66/22 0 (Kg4)} 84. Ke5 {4.66/27 0} Bb1 {4.66/19 0 (Bb3)} 85.
Be3 {4.66/28 0 Time} 1-0
[Event "Shootout (Stockfish864POPCNT, Blitz 1m)"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "r1br2k1/1pbnqppp/p1p1pn2/2Pp4/3P4/PPN1PN2/2BB1PPP/R2Q1RK1 w - - 0 3"]
[PlyCount "161"]
3. e4 {0.29/16 1} dxe4 {0.18/20 2} 4. Nxe4 {0.27/17 1} h6 {0.21/20 2} 5. Re1 {
0.25/19 1} b6 {0.31/22 6} 6. b4 {0.29/20 2} a5 {0.29/21 2} 7. cxb6 {0.26/19 1}
Bxb6 {0.18/21 6} 8. Nc5 {0.36/21 1} Bc7 {0.50/20 2} 9. h3 {0.38/19 1} Nxc5 {0.
34/20 3} 10. bxc5 {0.25/20 1} Ba6 {0.19/20 1} 11. Qc1 {0.28/20 1} Kf8 {0.52/20
1} 12. Ne5 {0.48/20 1} Bxe5 {0.37/20 2} 13. dxe5 {0.52/19 1} Nd5 {0.39/20 2}
14. Bxa5 {0.35/19 1} Rd7 {0.34/20 1} 15. Bb4 {0.31/18 1} Bb5 {0.36/19 1} 16.
Bd2 {0.43/21 1 (Rb1)} Rda7 {0.52/23 1} 17. Re4 {0.47/22 1} Qxc5 {0.53/23 1} 18.
a4 {0.52/25 1} Ba6 {0.45/24 2} 19. Bd1 {0.38/22 1} Qxc1 {0.43/25 1} 20. Rxc1 {
0.43/24 1} Rc8 {0.40/26 1} 21. Rc5 {0.42/27 1} Rb7 {0.42/24 1} 22. Bc2 {0.42/
24 1} Rb2 {0.38/25 1} 23. Rd4 {0.37/25 1} Ra2 {0.42/25 2} 24. Be4 {0.42/24 2}
Kg8 {0.38/24 1} 25. Kh2 {0.38/23 2} Kf8 {0.38/23 1} 26. f3 {0.38/22 3} Bf1 {0.
38/22 1} 27. Kg3 {0.44/21 1 (Kg1)} Be2 {0.41/21 1 (Ba6)} 28. Bb1 {0.43/21 2}
Ra1 {0.43/23 1} 29. Bc2 {0.39/22 1} Ba6 {0.40/21 1 (Bf1)} 30. Be4 {0.42/20 1
(Kh2)} Ra2 {0.31/22 1} 31. Bb1 {0.38/23 1} Ra1 {0.39/24 1} 32. Bc2 {0.43/24 2}
Be2 {0.38/20 1 (Ra2)} 33. Bb4 {0.35/20 1 (Bc3)} Ke8 {0.31/21 1} 34. Kf2 {0.31/
22 3} Ba6 {0.37/23 2} 35. Bd2 {0.33/21 1} Ke7 {0.33/21 1} 36. Be4 {0.36/22 4}
Ra2 {0.41/20 1} 37. Kg1 {0.42/18 0} Ra1+ {0.42/19 0} 38. Kh2 {0.42/21 1} Be2 {
0.35/19 1} 39. Kg3 {0.37/19 1 (Bc1)} Ra2 {0.29/16 0} 40. h4 {0.29/18 1 (Bc1)}
Ba6 {0.29/18 0} 41. Bb1 {0.29/18 1} Rb2 {0.29/19 0} 42. Bc2 {0.29/19 0} Ra2 {
0.33/19 0} 43. Bc1 {0.26/19 1} Ra1 {0.23/18 0} 44. Be4 {0.30/18 0} Ra2 {0.29/
15 0} 45. h5 {0.30/18 1} Ke8 {0.25/18 0} 46. Bb1 {0.29/18 1} Ra1 {0.33/19 0}
47. Bh7 {0.33/20 0} Bb7 {0.30/17 0 (Kf8)} 48. Bd2 {0.33/16 0} Ba6 {0.39/17 0}
49. Kh2 {0.41/19 0} Ke7 {0.39/19 0} 50. g4 {0.40/16 0 (Bc2)} Ra2 {0.39/15 0}
51. Kg3 {0.49/19 1} Ra1 {0.49/16 0} 52. Ra5 {0.48/18 0 (Be4)} Bf1 {0.42/14 0}
53. Ra7+ {1.30/18 1 (Bb4+)} Rc7 {1.19/15 0} 54. Bb4+ {1.42/17 0} Kd7 {1.42/13 0
} 55. Rxc7+ {1.73/15 0} Kxc7 {1.73/12 0} 56. Bd6+ {1.89/15 0} Kd7 {1.95/13 0}
57. Rd2 {1.85/16 0} Rxa4 {1.89/13 0} 58. Bf8 {1.65/16 0} g6 {1.65/12 0} 59.
hxg6 {1.71/15 0} fxg6 {1.63/13 0} 60. Bxg6 {1.64/16 0} Bb5 {1.66/13 0} 61. Rh2
{1.90/16 0 (Be4)} Nf4 {1.92/13 0} 62. Bc2 {2.02/15 0} Ra8 {1.89/12 0} 63. Rd2+
{1.99/15 0} Nd5 {1.99/14 0} 64. Bxh6 {1.93/16 0} Kc7 {2.03/14 0 (Ke7)} 65. Be4
{2.09/14 0} Rh8 {2.09/12 0} 66. g5 {2.16/15 0} Nc3 {2.16/13 0} 67. Bg6 {2.22/
15 0} c5 {2.20/13 0 (Ne2+)} 68. Rc2 {2.65/15 0} Ne2+ {2.76/13 0} 69. Kg4 {2.91/
15 0} Kb6 {2.99/13 0} 70. Be4 {3.14/15 0} Nd4 {3.18/14 0} 71. Rh2 {3.26/16 0}
Re8 {3.11/13 0} 72. g6 {3.43/14 0} Bc6 {3.46/13 0} 73. g7 {3.65/15 0} Nf5 {3.
73/13 0} 74. Bxf5 {4.22/16 0 (Kg5)} exf5+ {4.22/12 0} 75. Kxf5 {4.22/16 0} Bd5
{4.14/13 0} 76. Be3 {4.45/15 0} Re7 {4.52/14 0} 77. Rh6+ {4.58/15 0} Kc7 {4.60/
13 0} 78. Rg6 {4.99/14 0} Bg8 {4.99/14 0} 79. Bxc5 {5.31/15 0} Rd7 {4.83/14 0}
80. Bb6+ {5.99/15 0} Kc8 {5.99/12 0} 81. e6 {6.46/13 0} Re7 {6.37/12 0} 82. Ke5
{8.16/15 0} Rb7 {7.72/14 0} 83. Bc5 {9.07/15 0} 1-0
[Event "Shootout (Stockfish864POPCNT, Blitz 1m)"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "r1br2k1/1pbnqppp/p1p1pn2/2Pp4/3P4/PPN1PN2/2BB1PPP/R2Q1RK1 w - - 0 3"]
[PlyCount "101"]
3. e4 {0.29/16 1} dxe4 {0.18/20 2} 4. Nxe4 {0.27/17 1} h6 {0.21/20 3} 5. Re1 {
0.25/19 1} b6 {0.31/22 6} 6. b4 {0.29/20 2} a5 {0.29/21 2} 7. cxb6 {0.26/19 1}
Bxb6 {0.18/21 6} 8. Nc5 {0.36/21 1} Bc7 {0.50/20 2} 9. h3 {0.38/19 1} Nxc5 {0.
34/20 3} 10. bxc5 {0.25/20 1} Ba6 {0.19/20 1} 11. Qc1 {0.28/20 1} Kf8 {0.42/19
1} 12. Ne5 {0.47/19 1} Qe8 {0.43/21 3} 13. Bc3 {0.38/20 1} Nd5 {0.30/21 2} 14.
Qd2 {0.45/19 2} Ne7 {0.43/20 2} 15. Bb3 {0.47/20 1} Rdb8 {0.45/20 1} 16. Ba2 {
0.57/21 2} a4 {0.49/20 1} 17. Qc2 {0.56/21 1} Bxe5 {0.70/21 1} 18. dxe5 {0.61/
19 1} Kg8 {0.50/20 1} 19. Rad1 {0.69/19 1} Rb5 {0.59/21 2 (Nd5)} 20. Bb4 {0.66/
21 1} Nd5 {0.65/21 1} 21. Rd4 {0.63/20 1} Rb7 {0.64/22 3} 22. Bd2 {0.57/22 1}
Qf8 {0.56/22 1} 23. Bb1 {0.52/21 1} g6 {0.50/21 1} 24. Rxa4 {0.62/21 1} Bb5 {
0.57/21 1} 25. Rxa8 {0.54/20 1} Qxa8 {0.58/20 1} 26. Qc1 {0.60/20 1} h5 {0.57/
21 1} 27. Be4 {0.58/19 1} Rd7 {0.66/17 1} 28. g3 {0.59/17 1} Qf8 {0.66/18 1
(Kh7)} 29. Kg2 {0.79/18 1 (h4)} Qa8 {0.79/18 1} 30. Bf3 {0.77/18 1} Rb7 {0.79/
17 1 (Ra7)} 31. Bh6 {0.78/18 2 (Bb4)} Qd8 {0.93/17 1 (Kh7)} 32. Bg5 {1.00/17 1}
Qa5 {1.10/18 1 (Qf8)} 33. Rd1 {1.32/19 1} Qa4 {1.47/19 0} 34. Bf6 {1.01/20 2}
Kh7 {1.10/19 1} 35. Qg5 {1.14/19 1 (g4)} Rd7 {1.52/20 1 (Bc4)} 36. Bxh5 {1.55/
23 1} Ne3+ {1.54/24 0} 37. Qxe3 {1.50/27 1} Rxd1 {1.50/28 0} 38. Bxd1 {1.48/28
1} Qxd1 {1.48/29 0} 39. g4 {1.48/30 0} Qe2 {1.48/29 0} 40. Qf4 {1.48/31 1} Qc4
{1.47/29 0} 41. Qxc4 {1.47/33 0} Bxc4 {1.47/38 0} 42. a4 {1.47/43 0} Bb3 {1.47/
44 0} 43. a5 {2.74/47 6} Bc4 {2.74/24 0} 44. Kf3 {2.74/31 0} Bd3 {2.74/34 0
(Bb5)} 45. Ke3 {2.74/39 0} Bc4 {2.74/29 0} 46. Kf4 {2.74/29 0} Kh6 {2.46/27 0}
47. Be7 {2.74/32 0 (h4)} Bb5 {2.74/32 0 (Kg7)} 48. Bf8+ {3.56/30 1} Kh7 {3.56/
1 0} 49. Kg5 {3.65/25 0} Kg8 {3.68/22 0} 50. Bd6 {3.83/25 0} Bf1 {3.85/21 0
(Be2)} 51. Kf6 {4.20/24 0} g5 {4.34/21 0} 52. Kxg5 {6.69/23 0} Kg7 {8.14/21 0
(Kh7)} 53. h4 {9.79/22 0} 1-0
[Event "Shootout (Stockfish864POPCNT, Blitz 1m)"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "r1br2k1/1pbnqppp/p1p1pn2/2Pp4/3P4/PPN1PN2/2BB1PPP/R2Q1RK1 w - - 0 3"]
[PlyCount "123"]
3. e4 {0.29/16 1} dxe4 {0.18/20 2} 4. Nxe4 {0.27/17 1} h6 {0.21/20 2} 5. Re1 {
0.25/19 1} b6 {0.31/22 6} 6. b4 {0.29/20 2} a5 {0.29/21 2} 7. cxb6 {0.26/19 1}
Bxb6 {0.22/21 7} 8. Nc5 {0.31/18 1} Bc7 {0.18/21 1} 9. h3 {0.26/20 1} Nxc5 {0.
23/20 1 (axb4)} 10. bxc5 {0.18/18 0} Ba6 {0.23/21 1} 11. Rb1 {0.34/19 1} Kf8 {
0.31/20 1} 12. Rb2 {0.22/19 1 (Ba4)} Qd7 {0.20/20 2} 13. Qc1 {0.38/18 1} Nd5 {
0.12/20 3 (Rab8)} 14. Bb1 {0.42/18 1} a4 {0.18/20 2 (Qe8)} 15. Qc2 {0.17/18 1}
Nf6 {0.20/20 2} 16. Ne5 {0.33/17 1} Qe8 {0.50/20 1} 17. Bf4 {0.54/19 1} Ra7 {
0.43/19 2 (Rac8)} 18. Rd1 {0.40/19 1} Bb5 {0.49/20 2} 19. Bh2 {0.53/19 2} Rb7 {
0.34/21 1} 20. g4 {0.28/20 1} Kg8 {0.53/20 2 (Rdb8)} 21. f4 {0.28/17 1 (Bg3)}
g6 {0.51/18 2} 22. Qf2 {0.54/17 1} Bb8 {0.28/18 3 (Rdb8)} 23. Qh4 {0.35/18 3
(Re1)} Kg7 {0.39/19 1 (Nd5)} 24. g5 {0.14/18 1} Ng8 {0.24/20 2 (Bxe5)} 25. Be4
{0.35/18 1} Bxe5 {0.53/21 2} 26. gxh6+ {0.56/20 1} Nxh6 {0.62/21 1} 27. fxe5 {
0.63/21 1} Qe7 {0.60/20 0} 28. Bg3 {0.49/21 1} Qxh4 {0.57/21 0} 29. Bxh4 {0.52/
21 1} Rdb8 {0.54/21 0} 30. Bg5 {0.54/22 1} Nf5 {0.53/22 1} 31. Kf2 {0.39/22 1}
Kf8 {0.49/20 0} 32. h4 {0.70/21 1 (Rb4)} Ne7 {0.63/19 0} 33. Bxe7+ {0.75/21 1}
Kxe7 {0.73/21 1} 34. Rdb1 {0.84/21 1} Kd7 {0.84/18 0} 35. Ke3 {0.56/21 1} Rh8 {
0.64/19 0} 36. Rf1 {0.79/21 1} Ke7 {0.64/20 1} 37. Rf4 {0.83/21 1} Rd7 {0.77/
20 0} 38. Rbf2 {0.75/22 1} Ke8 {0.74/23 0} 39. Bc2 {0.70/22 0} Ra7 {0.68/21 0}
40. Bd1 {0.69/23 2 (Rg2)} Rd7 {0.64/19 0} 41. Rg2 {0.69/21 1 (Rh2)} Ke7 {0.73/
19 0 (Rh7)} 42. Bc2 {0.58/20 1} Rdd8 {0.53/19 0} 43. Rgf2 {0.66/19 1} Rdf8 {0.
52/18 0} 44. Bd3 {0.67/20 1} Rhg8 {0.68/19 0} 45. d5 {1.00/20 1 (Ke4)} exd5 {
0.83/17 0} 46. Bxb5 {1.07/20 1} cxb5 {1.15/18 0} 47. Kd4 {1.08/19 1} g5 {1.29/
17 0} 48. hxg5 {1.02/18 1} Rxg5 {1.06/17 0} 49. Rf6 {1.15/17 1 (Kxd5)} Rg4+ {
0.86/14 0} 50. Kxd5 {1.24/18 0} Rd8+ {1.02/15 0} 51. Rd6 {1.20/19 0} Rg3 {1.04/
16 0} 52. c6 {1.62/19 1 (Rxd8)} Rd3+ {1.82/15 0} 53. Kc5 {1.83/20 0} Rxa3 {1.
86/14 0} 54. Rxd8 {1.81/19 0} Kxd8 {1.62/16 0} 55. Rxf7 {2.15/19 0} Rc3+ {2.15/
15 0} 56. Kxb5 {2.39/19 0} a3 {2.39/16 0} 57. Ra7 {2.81/19 1} a2 {2.81/15 0
(Re3)} 58. Rxa2 {4.04/18 0} Rc1 {4.04/18 0 (Rb3+)} 59. Ra7 {5.60/20 0} Re1 {5.
64/17 0} 60. Rd7+ {5.72/22 0} Ke8 {5.72/21 0} 61. Kb6 {5.76/23 0 (Rb7)} Rb1+ {
5.76/15 0} 62. Kc5 {5.76/27 0} Ra1 {5.76/17 0 (Rc1+)} 63. Rb7 {46.10/23 3 (Kd6)
} Rc1+ {46.10/13 0 (Kd8)} 64. Kb6 {46.22/22 0} 1-0
[/pgn]
so, again, I was right.
scores usually reach +600cps and above.
much more convincing than after my line, agreed?
let me now see the sheer power of your engines, in a rich mg position.
