Zenmastur vs Ovyron No it's not another GROB!

[Ovyron]

Right predictions: 6

Prediction: 16.Nxf4 <- actual cheap parlor trick

1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3 d6 4. d4 g5 5. h4 g4 6. Ng1 Qf6 7. Nc3 Ne7 8. Nge2 Bh6 9. Qd2 Nbc6 10. Nb5 Kd8 11. d5 a6 12. Nbc3 Ne5 13. Nxf4 g3

[d]r1bk3r/1pp1np1p/p2p1q1b/3Pn3/4PN1P/2N3p1/PPPQ2P1/R1B1KB1R w KQ -

[Zenmastur]

1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3 d6 4. d4 g5 5. h4 g4 6. Ng1 Qf6 7. Nc3 Ne7 8. Nge2 Bh6 9. Qd2 Nbc6 10. Nb5 Kd8 11. d5 a6 12. Nbc3 Ne5 13. Nxf4 g3 14.Qe3

[d]r1bk3r/1pp1np1p/p2p1q1b/3Pn3/4PN1P/2N1Q1p1/PPP3P1/R1B1KB1R b KQ - 1 14

[Zenmastur]

You said:

I'm sure you could draw with it but I see no good reason to play it since white will always be worse.

You were saying you were sure I could draw with it, so I'd draw you in a KGA with reversed colors by using it.

I also said

I'm still working on the 3.Bc4 line. I'm not impressed with it so far and I've done all the major lines in it. It seems that black can maintain an advantage right to the very end.

It should be clear from these statements that I haven't finished my analysis of the lines, therefore my opinion is subject to change. Nor did I state that I analyzed any of them to a draw because I haven't. Nor do I expect to. I wouldn't play them as white since all of them seem to favor black. Some considerably more than others. But there is no way to tell at this point if white can force a draw because I haven't looked at all black responses yet.

You read way more force into my response than intended. The whole point to stating that I was still working on the line should have given you some indication that my opinion isn't written in stone, just yet.

[Ovyron]

You read way more force into my response than intended.

You used the words "I'm sure", sorry for taking it as meaning that "you didn't have doubts about it."

[Zenmastur]

You read way more force into my response than intended.

You used the words "I'm sure", sorry for taking it as meaning that "you didn't have doubts about it."

The problem is after 3.Bc4 it's blacks move. There are three major lines and half a dozen minor lines plus other moves. I've looked at the major lines and discovered sub-lines that still need to be analyzed. Further the "so called" minor lines aren't so minor after all. I've found at least one line that I haven't seen mentioned in any book. I've only seen one computer book that mentions it and it has no follow up moves. It's actually seems better for black than the line ALL the books mention as BEST. There are also tons of black moves that seem to be playable in many of these lines that aren't mentioned in any books I have seen. It only takes one black move in one of these lines (because black gets to choose which line he wants to play) to spoil whites fun. So until I'm finished I'm not committed. Yes, from what I've seen it looks like white can draw. But it's not a done deal until all black responses have been checked AND all the sub-lines where black gets to choose the path to follow are looked at. There are a surprisingly large number of them so it's probably going to be a while. Black seems to have mores resources that one would expect from such a simple position.

I plan on finishing the minor lines (with the exception of minor sub-lines) and then take a break from 3.Bc4 for a while. I have about 70 other lines I can do pre-analysis on and several other major lines that still need to be addressed. The pre-analysis on 70 lines will take about a day or two and who knows how long the other major lines will take. I just wanted to look at 3.Bc4 because you mentioned it and I've heard other people say things about how good it is. I had never looked at in depth before. I was curious so I bumped it up in the order I was doing things. I'm a lot less interested now that I've seen how many resources black has at his disposal. White should be VERY well prepared before playing this line because black has many options to choose from and ALL have to be accounted for. Even at CC time controls I wouldn't play this line unless I had all the lines bagged and tagged because of the amount of work involved in sorting them all out.

[Ovyron]

I have about 70 other lines I can do pre-analysis on and several other major lines that still need to be addressed. The pre-analysis on 70 lines will take about a day or two and who knows how long the other major lines will take.

For the record: My analysis of 3.Bc4 includes over 50000 lines:



Because... Chess Openings Wizard just gives up after 50k, so no idea how much I have. But adding or taking away 70 lines sounds like nothing...

Right predictions: 7

Prediction: 17.Nh5

1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3 d6 4. d4 g5 5. h4 g4 6. Ng1 Qf6 7. Nc3 Ne7 8. Nge2 Bh6 9. Qd2 Nbc6 10. Nb5 Kd8 11. d5 a6 12. Nbc3 Ne5 13. Nxf4 g3 14. Qe3 N7g6

[d]r1bk3r/1pp2p1p/p2p1qnb/3Pn3/4PN1P/2N1Q1p1/PPP3P1/R1B1KB1R w KQ -

[Zenmastur]

1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3 d6 4. d4 g5 5. h4 g4 6. Ng1 Qf6 7. Nc3 Ne7 8. Nge2 Bh6 9. Qd2 Nbc6 10. Nb5 Kd8 11. d5 a6 12. Nbc3 Ne5 13. Nxf4 g3 14. Qe3 N7g6 15.Nce2

[d]r1bk3r/1pp2p1p/p2p1qnb/3Pn3/4PN1P/4Q1p1/PPP1N1P1/R1B1KB1R b KQ - 3 15

[jp]

Once I got a graphics card that could run NN engines at a reasonable speed I thought this would "fix" many of Lc0 short comings. It hasn't. I ran Lc0 side-by-side with Stockfish for several hours last night while I was analyzing. When ever Lc0 would select a different line than SF I would save both and then analyze them to see which was "right" or "better" or which had errors in it. In every case I investigated Lc0 lines had errors in it. By "errors" I mean moves in the line that evaluated significantly different than the evaluation given to the line as a whole by Lc0. This wasn't a one-off per line of analysis, there were several moves like this in each of Lc0 prefered lines. I tried several different nets, including 62078 320x24 and segio's 512x40 test net. I figured the larger nets would do better since the analysis times, while they varied, were around 300 seconds per move. This didn't seem to help.

So, anyone have any suggestions on a net that under longtime control doesn't have this issue?

Not exactly sure, but the line given by SV-384x30-t60-3070 was in agreement with SF for more than 30 plies - when I checked them both a few moves ago -.

I just looked at all the nets I have and that one wasn't among them, so I'm downloading it now. I'll give it a spin and see how it does.

There's probably something wrong in how you've set up Leela. It's not to do with a specific net.

It's typical that if you run SF and Leela for a very long time they have the same lines for many plies. It's been that way for a long time, when users must have used a lot of different nets.

[Ovyron]

15.Nce2

I'm failing high, it's possible I've seen things Zenmastur has missed so I no longer will be predicting white's moves, in case they're the only ones that save white's game and he misses them.

1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3 d6 4. d4 g5 5. h4 g4 6. Ng1 Qf6 7. Nc3 Ne7 8. Nge2 Bh6 9. Qd2 Nbc6 10. Nb5 Kd8 11. d5 a6 12. Nbc3 Ne5 13. Nxf4 g3 14. Qe3 N7g6 15. Nce2 Nxf4

[d]r1bk3r/1pp2p1p/p2p1q1b/3Pn3/4Pn1P/4Q1p1/PPP1N1P1/R1B1KB1R w KQ -

[Zenmastur]

I have about 70 other lines I can do pre-analysis on and several other major lines that still need to be addressed. The pre-analysis on 70 lines will take about a day or two and who knows how long the other major lines will take.

For the record: My analysis of 3.Bc4 includes over 50000 lines:



Because... Chess Openings Wizard just gives up after 50k, so no idea how much I have. But adding or taking away 70 lines sounds like nothing...

Well, I suspect there is a major difference between what Chess Opening Wizard counts as a line and what I count as a line. E.g. if 1.e4 e5 2.f4 exf4 3.Bc4 c6 and all its sublines fits in one game file I count it as one line. If I have to split the file up because the amount of analysis in the file makes it awkward to use then it gets counted as however many file I break it up into. I haven't ever counted the max lines in a file but when it gets too big things start to get sluggish when adding new analysis to the files. When it starts doing this I break the file into smaller files. Each file is a line.