Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

[Alayan]

The comparison is silly.

You don't need to be able to play every single legal 32-men position perfectly to never lose a game from the start position as white. You only need to draw or win from positions that follow sensible white moves your book/engine chooses to play. If black plays to equalize, it makes white's job of not losing even easier.

To hope for a win, black must play for complications, but this makes black's position worse against a competent enough opponent.

You are talking about black with a 32 man tablebase using complication tricks. So what is the issue ?

The point is that Stockfish may fail to win or fail to draw in plenty of 32-men position yet manage to draw as white against your TB with complication tricks because it would require many mistakes.

It's not possible to prove SF wouldn't lose, but if it would be possible to prove it can lose by beating it using correspondence chess techniques.

[duncan]

The comparison is silly.

You don't need to be able to play every single legal 32-men position perfectly to never lose a game from the start position as white. You only need to draw or win from positions that follow sensible white moves your book/engine chooses to play. If black plays to equalize, it makes white's job of not losing even easier.

To hope for a win, black must play for complications, but this makes black's position worse against a competent enough opponent.

You are talking about black with a 32 man tablebase using complication tricks. So what is the issue ?

The point is that Stockfish may fail to win or fail to draw in plenty of 32-men position yet manage to draw as white against your TB with complication tricks because it would require many mistakes.

It's not possible to prove SF wouldn't lose, but if it would be possible to prove it can lose by beating it using correspondence chess techniques.

Why would it require many mistakes? It requires one mistake outside stockfish's horizon which loses.

[Alayan]

When there is a big margin between the current position and a loss, a strong chess entity is very unlikely to throw on the spot. It's more likely to make a mistake that makes its position worse and further mistakes likelier.

[Leo]

If there were no opening book, Stockfish will be minimally able to draw another Stockfish or Leela in 95% of games. If Stockfish is playing against 32 men TB, the extreme condition would be 50 draw 50 losses , which is within 200 elo.


On the other hand, current Stockfish with contempt may be slightly higher rated than 32 men TB in Round Robin rating pool. Prettty crazy right? Actually 32 men TB doesn't store statistics of winning chances or knowledge of maximising chances to win which will subsequently lose some elo. For example, in KRB vs KR, 7 men TB will randomly throw away one rook as it knows that all moves are draw. ( KB vs KR is still draw). Carry behaviour of how this 7 men TB play into 32 men TB, we can see TB will be randomly choose the first move 1. a3 or f3 or h3 or e4 (assuming that except 1.g4, all other 19 moves are likely to be draw). Subsequently, 32 men TB will choose next move like. 1. a3 e5 2. a4 ( It still knows as a draw but it throw away practical winning chances)

Quote: "The size of 8-man tablebases will be 100 times larger than the size of 7-man tablebases. To fully compute them, one will need about 10 PB (10,000 TB) of disk space and 50 TB of RAM. Only the top 10 supercomputers can solve the 8-man problem in 2014. The first 1000-move mate is unlikely to be found until 2020 when a part of a TOP100 supercomputer may be allowed to be used for solving this task."

I cant comprehend a 32 man table base and the storage needed for it.

From the point of view of hardware, today it could be solved for a million dollars worth of computer ram and hard drive

If you say so.

[duncan]

If there were no opening book, Stockfish will be minimally able to draw another Stockfish or Leela in 95% of games. If Stockfish is playing against 32 men TB, the extreme condition would be 50 draw 50 losses , which is within 200 elo.


On the other hand, current Stockfish with contempt may be slightly higher rated than 32 men TB in Round Robin rating pool. Prettty crazy right? Actually 32 men TB doesn't store statistics of winning chances or knowledge of maximising chances to win which will subsequently lose some elo. For example, in KRB vs KR, 7 men TB will randomly throw away one rook as it knows that all moves are draw. ( KB vs KR is still draw). Carry behaviour of how this 7 men TB play into 32 men TB, we can see TB will be randomly choose the first move 1. a3 or f3 or h3 or e4 (assuming that except 1.g4, all other 19 moves are likely to be draw). Subsequently, 32 men TB will choose next move like. 1. a3 e5 2. a4 ( It still knows as a draw but it throw away practical winning chances)

Quote: "The size of 8-man tablebases will be 100 times larger than the size of 7-man tablebases. To fully compute them, one will need about 10 PB (10,000 TB) of disk space and 50 TB of RAM. Only the top 10 supercomputers can solve the 8-man problem in 2014. The first 1000-move mate is unlikely to be found until 2020 when a part of a TOP100 supercomputer may be allowed to be used for solving this task."

I cant comprehend a 32 man table base and the storage needed for it.

From the point of view of hardware, today it could be solved for a million dollars worth of computer ram and hard drive

If you say so.

According to Dann, $680,000 for RAM and hard disk

http://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=74185


Today, storage is $20/TB
https://edwardbetts.com/price_per_tb/
So only $40,000 for the disk.

Server memory currently runs about $10K/TB (unless you need the greasy fast stuff)
$640,000 for RAM.

[mwyoung]

I thought it would be interesting to show just how weak Stockfish would play against a 32 man tablebase. And we can show this by the table bases we do have. This is just one example. But as we know their are countless positions with 6 man positions that Stockfish is clueless. Let alone more complicated positions. And if we could scale this to a 32 man TB. Stockfish would have no chance.

[d]5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7

Stockfish says nothing to see here. This positions is a dead draw.

5: 5. Polasek 1-0, Cs. sach 1/2010 1981
5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Stockfish 081120:

7.Rxg7 Qf2+ 8.Qd2 Qf5+ 9.Qd3 Qc5+ 10.Kb3 Kxg7 11.Qc3+ Qxc3+ 12.Kxc3 Kg6 13.Kd3 Kh6 14.Kc2 Kg5 15.Kd2 Kf6 16.Ke2 Kg7 17.Kd1 Kh6 18.Ke1 Kh5 19.Ke2 Kg4 20.Ke3 Kg3 21.Kd3 Kg2 22.Ke4 Kh3 23.Kf4 Kg2
The position is equal: = (0.00) Depth: 81/49 00:19:14 68081MN
(, 09.11.2020)

But the god like power of table bases tells a much different story. And this is just with a 6 man position!

[pgn][Event "?"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7"]
[PlyCount "115"]

{[#]} 7. Rh4+ {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:06]} Kg8 {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 8. Qc4+ {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rf7 {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 9. Rg4+ {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kh8 {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 10. Qd4+ {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rg7 {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 11. Rh4+ {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kg8 {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 12. Qd5+ {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 13. Rg4+ {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 14. Qe5+ {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 15. Rh4+ {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 16. Qe6+ {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 17. Kb1 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qb8+ {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 18. Kc1 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qc7+ {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 19. Rc4 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qe7 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 20. Qg4+ {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27981,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 21. Qh3+ {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 22. Qg3+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 23. Rc8+ {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh7 {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 24. Qh2+ {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 25. Qc2+ {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf6 {[%eval 27986,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 26. Qf2+ {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 27. Rc6+ {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg5 {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 28. Rc5+ {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 29. Qg2+ {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 30. Qh2+ {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 31. Qh5+ {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 32. Rc3+ {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg2 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 33. Rc2+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 34. Qh2+ {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 35. Rg2+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf5 {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 36. Qh3+ {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 37. Rf2+ {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ke4 {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 38. Re2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kd4 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 39. Rxe7 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rxe7 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 40. Kd2 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rc7 {[%eval 27977,0] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 41. Qd3+ {[%eval 27978,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc5 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 42. Kc3 {[%eval 27979,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 43. Qd4+ {[%eval 27980,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb5+ {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 44. Kb3 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 45. Qd6 {[%eval 27982,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 46. Qb4+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka6 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 47. Ka3 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 48. Qe4 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc3+ {[%eval 27985,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 49. Ka4 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 50. Qb4 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27987,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 51. Qb5+ {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:01]} Ka7 {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 52. Qd3 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 53. Qe4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc7 {[%eval 27990,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 54. Kb5 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 55. Qh1 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rb7+ {[%eval 27992,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 56. Kc6 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27993,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 57. Qh8+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 58. Qd8 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27995,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 59. Qb6+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka8 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 60. Qb3 {[%eval 27997,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 61. Qa2+ {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 62. Qb2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 63. Qxg7 {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kb8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 64. Qb7# {[%eval 32766,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} 1-0

[/pgn]

[BrendanJNorman]

I thought it would be interesting to show just how weak Stockfish would play against a 32 man tablebase. And we can show this by the table bases we do have. This is just one example. But as we know their are countless positions with 6 man positions that Stockfish is clueless. Let alone more complicated positions. And if we could scale this to a 32 man TB. Stockfish would have no chance.

[d]5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7

Stockfish says nothing to see here. This positions is a dead draw.

5: 5. Polasek 1-0, Cs. sach 1/2010 1981
5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Stockfish 081120:

7.Rxg7 Qf2+ 8.Qd2 Qf5+ 9.Qd3 Qc5+ 10.Kb3 Kxg7 11.Qc3+ Qxc3+ 12.Kxc3 Kg6 13.Kd3 Kh6 14.Kc2 Kg5 15.Kd2 Kf6 16.Ke2 Kg7 17.Kd1 Kh6 18.Ke1 Kh5 19.Ke2 Kg4 20.Ke3 Kg3 21.Kd3 Kg2 22.Ke4 Kh3 23.Kf4 Kg2
The position is equal: = (0.00) Depth: 81/49 00:19:14 68081MN
(, 09.11.2020)

But the god like power of table bases tells a much different story. And this is just with a 6 man position!

[pgn][Event "?"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7"]
[PlyCount "115"]

{[#]} 7. Rh4+ {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:06]} Kg8 {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 8. Qc4+ {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rf7 {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 9. Rg4+ {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kh8 {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 10. Qd4+ {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rg7 {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 11. Rh4+ {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kg8 {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 12. Qd5+ {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 13. Rg4+ {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 14. Qe5+ {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 15. Rh4+ {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 16. Qe6+ {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 17. Kb1 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qb8+ {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 18. Kc1 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qc7+ {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 19. Rc4 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qe7 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 20. Qg4+ {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27981,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 21. Qh3+ {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 22. Qg3+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 23. Rc8+ {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh7 {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 24. Qh2+ {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 25. Qc2+ {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf6 {[%eval 27986,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 26. Qf2+ {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 27. Rc6+ {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg5 {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 28. Rc5+ {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 29. Qg2+ {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 30. Qh2+ {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 31. Qh5+ {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 32. Rc3+ {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg2 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 33. Rc2+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 34. Qh2+ {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 35. Rg2+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf5 {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 36. Qh3+ {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 37. Rf2+ {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ke4 {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 38. Re2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kd4 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 39. Rxe7 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rxe7 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 40. Kd2 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rc7 {[%eval 27977,0] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 41. Qd3+ {[%eval 27978,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc5 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 42. Kc3 {[%eval 27979,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 43. Qd4+ {[%eval 27980,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb5+ {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 44. Kb3 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 45. Qd6 {[%eval 27982,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 46. Qb4+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka6 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 47. Ka3 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 48. Qe4 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc3+ {[%eval 27985,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 49. Ka4 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 50. Qb4 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27987,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 51. Qb5+ {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:01]} Ka7 {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 52. Qd3 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 53. Qe4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc7 {[%eval 27990,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 54. Kb5 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 55. Qh1 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rb7+ {[%eval 27992,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 56. Kc6 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27993,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 57. Qh8+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 58. Qd8 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27995,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 59. Qb6+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka8 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 60. Qb3 {[%eval 27997,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 61. Qa2+ {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 62. Qb2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 63. Qxg7 {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kb8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 64. Qb7# {[%eval 32766,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} 1-0

[/pgn]

Right. I don't know why others aren't seeing this (obvious) logic.

A real 32 man tablebase already knows the outcome of the game in the beginning, so what the hell is a "complication trick" (which someone mentioned) going to do to save Stockfish?

What will happen, in *EVERY* game, is this:

1. Players shuffle out opening moves.
2. Stockfish gets an edge (if white, maybe).
3. Stockfish makes ONE...MINOR inaccuracy.
4. 32 man TB announces mate in 56.
5. Stockfish is mated in 31 because without tablebases, he chooses an imprecise path to mate (or getting mated in his case).

100-0 match result.

As you said, SF is clueless in 6 man positions, he'd be clueless and defenseless against a 32 man TB engine.

[duncan]

Right. I don't know why others aren't seeing this (obvious) logic.

A real 32 man tablebase already knows the outcome of the game in the beginning, so what the hell is a "complication trick" (which someone mentioned) going to do to save Stockfish?

What will happen, in *EVERY* game, is this:

1. Players shuffle out opening moves.
2. Stockfish gets an edge (if white, maybe).
3. Stockfish makes ONE...MINOR inaccuracy.
4. 32 man TB announces mate in 56.
5. Stockfish is mated in 31 because without tablebases, he chooses an imprecise path to mate (or getting mated in his case).

100-0 match result.

As you said, SF is clueless in 6 man positions, he'd be clueless and defenseless against a 32 man TB engine.

What happens if Stockfish 's evaluation in regular chess is so good, it does not make significant inaccuracies which will lead to a loss against 32 man TB.

In that case, you will have to target's stockfish's weak point that it cannot see beyond 15 moves. The job of 32 man Tb will be to move the game into positions where it is essential to calculate beyond 15 moves.

[Nay Lin Tun]

I thought it would be interesting to show just how weak Stockfish would play against a 32 man tablebase. And we can show this by the table bases we do have. This is just one example. But as we know their are countless positions with 6 man positions that Stockfish is clueless. Let alone more complicated positions. And if we could scale this to a 32 man TB. Stockfish would have no chance.

[d]5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7

Stockfish says nothing to see here. This positions is a dead draw.

5: 5. Polasek 1-0, Cs. sach 1/2010 1981
5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Stockfish 081120:

7.Rxg7 Qf2+ 8.Qd2 Qf5+ 9.Qd3 Qc5+ 10.Kb3 Kxg7 11.Qc3+ Qxc3+ 12.Kxc3 Kg6 13.Kd3 Kh6 14.Kc2 Kg5 15.Kd2 Kf6 16.Ke2 Kg7 17.Kd1 Kh6 18.Ke1 Kh5 19.Ke2 Kg4 20.Ke3 Kg3 21.Kd3 Kg2 22.Ke4 Kh3 23.Kf4 Kg2
The position is equal: = (0.00) Depth: 81/49 00:19:14 68081MN
(, 09.11.2020)

But the god like power of table bases tells a much different story. And this is just with a 6 man position!

[pgn][Event "?"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7"]
[PlyCount "115"]

{[#]} 7. Rh4+ {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:06]} Kg8 {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 8. Qc4+ {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rf7 {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 9. Rg4+ {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kh8 {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 10. Qd4+ {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rg7 {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 11. Rh4+ {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kg8 {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 12. Qd5+ {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 13. Rg4+ {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 14. Qe5+ {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 15. Rh4+ {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 16. Qe6+ {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 17. Kb1 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qb8+ {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 18. Kc1 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qc7+ {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 19. Rc4 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qe7 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 20. Qg4+ {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27981,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 21. Qh3+ {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 22. Qg3+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 23. Rc8+ {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh7 {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 24. Qh2+ {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 25. Qc2+ {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf6 {[%eval 27986,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 26. Qf2+ {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 27. Rc6+ {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg5 {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 28. Rc5+ {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 29. Qg2+ {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 30. Qh2+ {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 31. Qh5+ {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 32. Rc3+ {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg2 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 33. Rc2+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 34. Qh2+ {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 35. Rg2+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf5 {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 36. Qh3+ {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 37. Rf2+ {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ke4 {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 38. Re2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kd4 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 39. Rxe7 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rxe7 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 40. Kd2 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rc7 {[%eval 27977,0] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 41. Qd3+ {[%eval 27978,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc5 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 42. Kc3 {[%eval 27979,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 43. Qd4+ {[%eval 27980,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb5+ {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 44. Kb3 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 45. Qd6 {[%eval 27982,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 46. Qb4+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka6 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 47. Ka3 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 48. Qe4 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc3+ {[%eval 27985,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 49. Ka4 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 50. Qb4 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27987,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 51. Qb5+ {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:01]} Ka7 {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 52. Qd3 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 53. Qe4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc7 {[%eval 27990,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 54. Kb5 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 55. Qh1 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rb7+ {[%eval 27992,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 56. Kc6 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27993,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 57. Qh8+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 58. Qd8 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27995,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 59. Qb6+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka8 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 60. Qb3 {[%eval 27997,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 61. Qa2+ {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 62. Qb2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 63. Qxg7 {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kb8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 64. Qb7# {[%eval 32766,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} 1-0

[/pgn]

Stockfish won't be as accurate as EGTB, and you can nickpick thousands of such positions from Trillions of 7 men TB. However, the question is how accurately Stockfish can play in random 100 positions from TB and compare her with TB results.

As Stockfish accuracy is a bell shaped curve with rapid rise in accuracy up to 100 million nodes, I suggest you run Stockfish 10 seconds per move with 6 men TB access ( like TCEC access) and compare her accuracy with 6 men TB.

My assumption is Stockfish may get 90% accuracy from randomly generated 100 TB positions. ( 18/20 to save time in testing).

Here is Stockfish elo curve vs nodes.
https://imgur.com/39BY6w1

[mwyoung]

I thought it would be interesting to show just how weak Stockfish would play against a 32 man tablebase. And we can show this by the table bases we do have. This is just one example. But as we know their are countless positions with 6 man positions that Stockfish is clueless. Let alone more complicated positions. And if we could scale this to a 32 man TB. Stockfish would have no chance.

[d]5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7

Stockfish says nothing to see here. This positions is a dead draw.

5: 5. Polasek 1-0, Cs. sach 1/2010 1981
5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Stockfish 081120:

7.Rxg7 Qf2+ 8.Qd2 Qf5+ 9.Qd3 Qc5+ 10.Kb3 Kxg7 11.Qc3+ Qxc3+ 12.Kxc3 Kg6 13.Kd3 Kh6 14.Kc2 Kg5 15.Kd2 Kf6 16.Ke2 Kg7 17.Kd1 Kh6 18.Ke1 Kh5 19.Ke2 Kg4 20.Ke3 Kg3 21.Kd3 Kg2 22.Ke4 Kh3 23.Kf4 Kg2
The position is equal: = (0.00) Depth: 81/49 00:19:14 68081MN
(, 09.11.2020)

But the god like power of table bases tells a much different story. And this is just with a 6 man position!

[pgn][Event "?"]
[Site "?"]
[Date "????.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "New game"]
[Black "?"]
[Result "1-0"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "5q1k/6r1/8/8/6R1/2Q5/2K5/8 w - - 0 7"]
[PlyCount "115"]

{[#]} 7. Rh4+ {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:06]} Kg8 {[%eval 27968,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 8. Qc4+ {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rf7 {[%eval 27969,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 9. Rg4+ {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kh8 {[%eval 27970,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 10. Qd4+ {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rg7 {[%eval 27971,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 11. Rh4+ {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kg8 {[%eval 27972,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 12. Qd5+ {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27973,1] [%emt 0:00:
01]} 13. Rg4+ {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27974,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 14. Qe5+ {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27975,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 15. Rh4+ {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 16. Qe6+ {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 17. Kb1 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qb8+ {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 18. Kc1 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qc7+ {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 19. Rc4 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Qe7 {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 20. Qg4+ {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh8 {[%eval 27981,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 21. Qh3+ {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg8 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 22. Qg3+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 23. Rc8+ {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kh7 {[%eval 27984,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 24. Qh2+ {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 25. Qc2+ {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf6 {[%eval 27986,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 26. Qf2+ {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg6 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 27. Rc6+ {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg5 {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 28. Rc5+ {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27989,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 29. Qg2+ {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 30. Qh2+ {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 31. Qh5+ {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 32. Rc3+ {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg2 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 33. Rc2+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg3 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 34. Qh2+ {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kg4 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 35. Rg2+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf5 {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 36. Qh3+ {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kf4 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 37. Rf2+ {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ke4 {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 38. Re2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kd4 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt 0:00:
00]} 39. Rxe7 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rxe7 {[%eval 27976,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 40. Kd2 {[%eval 27977,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Rc7 {[%eval 27977,0] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 41. Qd3+ {[%eval 27978,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc5 {[%eval 27978,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 42. Kc3 {[%eval 27979,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27979,1] [%emt 0:
00:00]} 43. Qd4+ {[%eval 27980,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb5+ {[%eval 27980,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 44. Kb3 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27981,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 45. Qd6 {[%eval 27982,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc6 {[%eval 27982,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 46. Qb4+ {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka6 {[%eval 27983,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 47. Ka3 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27984,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 48. Qe4 {[%eval 27985,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc3+ {[%eval 27985,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 49. Ka4 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc5 {[%eval 27986,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 50. Qb4 {[%eval 27987,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc1 {[%eval 27987,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 51. Qb5+ {[%eval 27988,0] [%emt 0:00:01]} Ka7 {[%eval 27988,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 52. Qd3 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27989,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 53. Qe4 {[%eval 27990,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rc7 {[%eval 27990,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 54. Kb5 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27991,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 55. Qh1 {[%eval 27992,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rb7+ {[%eval 27992,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 56. Kc6 {[%eval 27993,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27993,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 57. Qh8+ {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka7 {[%eval 27994,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 58. Qd8 {[%eval 27995,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rf7 {[%eval 27995,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 59. Qb6+ {[%eval 27996,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Ka8 {[%eval 27996,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 60. Qb3 {[%eval 27997,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Rg7 {[%eval 27997,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 61. Qa2+ {[%eval 27998,0] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kb8 {[%eval 27998,1] [%emt
0:00:00]} 62. Qb2+ {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} Kc8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 63. Qxg7 {[%eval 27999,1] [%emt 0:00:01]} Kb8 {[%eval 27999,0] [%emt
0:00:00]} 64. Qb7# {[%eval 32766,1] [%emt 0:00:00]} 1-0

[/pgn]

Stockfish won't be as accurate as EGTB, and you can nickpick thousands of such positions from Trillions of 7 men TB. However, the question is how accurately Stockfish can play in random 100 positions from TB and compare her with TB results.

As Stockfish accuracy is a bell shaped curve with rapid rise in accuracy up to 100 million nodes, I suggest you run Stockfish 10 seconds per move with 6 men TB access ( like TCEC access) and compare her accuracy with 6 men TB.

My assumption is Stockfish may get 90% accuracy from randomly generated 100 TB positions. ( 18/20 to save time in testing).

Here is Stockfish elo curve vs nodes.
https://imgur.com/39BY6w1

You clearly do not understand. It would not be a random position. The table base would force the winning position. And Stockfish as like the position above would be clueless to what is happening.