Carlsen vs. CCRL 2850 engines in Rapid?

[amanjpro]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

[lkaufman]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

He already has played many games with the komodo bots on chess.com, but those are blitz games, not serious Rapid (15' + 10") games, so we can only extrapolate from that.

[Chessqueen]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

He already has played many games with the komodo bots on chess.com, but those are blitz games, not serious Rapid (15' + 10") games, so we can only extrapolate from that.

Well if you want to find out how good Komodo Dragon2 is on chess.com with different Skill Levels and with TC of 15'+10" only offer that TC 15'+10" for about 3 months and find out against different humans rated players

[lkaufman]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

He already has played many games with the komodo bots on chess.com, but those are blitz games, not serious Rapid (15' + 10") games, so we can only extrapolate from that.

Well if you want to find out how good Komodo Dragon2 is on chess.com with different Skill Levels and with TC of 15'+10" only offer that TC 15'+10" for about 3 months and find out against different humans rated players

We had the skill levels playing all challengers on chess.com for a long time. There were two problems: Most people played levels way above their own level, so they were not useful for rating the levels, and it was obvious that some people, maybe 5% or so, were cheating (using other engines), probably telling themselves that their opponent being a computer won't mind or that it is "fair" that way! So the ratings of all but the low skill levels kept dropping, as they couldn't gain points by beating weak opponents and lost points to the cheaters. Probably the ratings for the lower half of the Skill levels were about right; people don't pick a low skill level to cheat against!

[AdminX]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

He already has played many games with the komodo bots on chess.com, but those are blitz games, not serious Rapid (15' + 10") games, so we can only extrapolate from that.

Well if you want to find out how good Komodo Dragon2 is on chess.com with different Skill Levels and with TC of 15'+10" only offer that TC 15'+10" for about 3 months and find out against different humans rated players

We had the skill levels playing all challengers on chess.com for a long time. There were two problems: Most people played levels way above their own level, so they were not useful for rating the levels, and it was obvious that some people, maybe 5% or so, were cheating (using other engines), probably telling themselves that their opponent being a computer won't mind or that it is "fair" that way! So the ratings of all but the low skill levels kept dropping, as they couldn't gain points by beating weak opponents and lost points to the cheaters. Probably the ratings for the lower half of the Skill levels were about right; people don't pick a low skill level to cheat against!

Sadly if you want honest results, Chess.com would need to setup an event and use a camera system as they did with some of their GM events. This is why I only play Blitz 5 or less when playing online anywhere. I use to really enjoy playing 15 minutes or more games online once.

[lkaufman]

I believe it is easier to get Nakamura to play an engine.. he is a show man and wants to explore getting famous... You probably can start a negotiation with him and see where does it take you.

I won't be surprised if he does it even for free to get viewers on his many channels

He already has played many games with the komodo bots on chess.com, but those are blitz games, not serious Rapid (15' + 10") games, so we can only extrapolate from that.

Well if you want to find out how good Komodo Dragon2 is on chess.com with different Skill Levels and with TC of 15'+10" only offer that TC 15'+10" for about 3 months and find out against different humans rated players

We had the skill levels playing all challengers on chess.com for a long time. There were two problems: Most people played levels way above their own level, so they were not useful for rating the levels, and it was obvious that some people, maybe 5% or so, were cheating (using other engines), probably telling themselves that their opponent being a computer won't mind or that it is "fair" that way! So the ratings of all but the low skill levels kept dropping, as they couldn't gain points by beating weak opponents and lost points to the cheaters. Probably the ratings for the lower half of the Skill levels were about right; people don't pick a low skill level to cheat against!

Sadly if you want honest results, Chess.com would need to setup an event and use a camera system as they did with some of their GM events. This is why I only play Blitz 5 or less when playing online anywhere. I use to really enjoy playing 15 minutes or more games online once.

On the other hand, we have played dozens of matches on chess.com with IMs and GMs at various odds, and I've never once suspected anyone of cheating against us. Of course the players are usually on camera, but there are still ways they could cheat. It seems that most professional chess players are honest (at least regarding their chess games), and we avoid playing anyone with a dodgy reputation. I suppose it helps that in general the difference in prize money for an extra win is not large enough to warrant risking one's whole career. But so far it seems that even with the sizable prize money given in the Magnus Carlsen online Rapid events for top players there is little suspicion of cheating.

[lkaufman]

In 1999 Fritz 5.32 beats Judit Polgar with a 5.5-2.5 score at 30 minutes per game match. The performance of Fritz 5.32 at this match is 2814 elo.
Fritz 5.32 had played on a Pentium II/350 Mhz hardware. Fritz 5.32 is ~100 elo weaker than Fritz 8. The rating of Fritz 8 Bilbao is 2700 elo at CCRL 40/15 rating list.
In 1998 Rebel beat Anand at 2 semi-blitz games (15 minutes) match with a 1.5- 0.5 score (2986 elo performance). At 4 blitz games (5 min + 5 sec) Rebel beat Anand with a 3-1 score (2986 elo performance). Rebel had played on a K6-2 450 Mhz hardware. Anand had 2795 elo at 1998 July.
Fritz 5.32 at Pentium II/350 Mhz and Rebel K6-2 450 Mhz probably have a rating of around 2400 elo for CCRL (40/15).

Considering that Magnus Carlsen is the best player in history in rapid games a 2400-2450 elo chess engine has a low change to beat him.
But a chess engine around 2600 CCRL elo can beat Magnus Carlsen without much difficulty at rapid games.

The first result you mention is the most relevant since 15' + 10" Rapid is about like game in 25'. I think that a 2800 player today is a stronger Rapid player than a 2800 player of 20 years ago, due to getting so much more practice at fast play on the internet, but even so I agree with you that somewhere between 2450 and 2600 CCRL Rapid (let's say 2525, the middle) would be an equal opponent for Magnus in Rapid based on this historical evidence. But that's roughly Skill level 22 on Komodo Dragon 2, which was a close opponent for Jorge Sammour, whose FIDE is only 2458, four hundred elo below Carlsen! So I'm having a really tough time reconciling these facts. Obviously the crippled dragon plays quite differently than a full strength twenty year old engine, but it's not obvious why it would perform much worse vs. humans than an engine of equal strength based on direct play. Some mystery here....

I ran some long matches (over a thousand Rapid games total) overnight which indicated that Skill level 24 on Komodo Dragon II would get a CCRL 40/15 (Rapid) rating of about 2670. This should put Skill level 23 close to that 2525 CCRL estimated rating for Carlsen (I'm starting that test now), so I was off by one level in my remarks above. Still, it would be very strange if Skill level 23 could actually break even with Carlsen in Rapid when level 22 only beat Jorge Sammour by 2 to 1. Level 23 does usually beat Nakamura in blitz, but humans play vastly better in Rapid than in blitz while the skill level is unchanged. The engine that I have the most data with vs. humans is Rybka 2.3.2a (or versions very close to it). It has a CCRL Rapid rating on one thread of 2961, and based on all the matches with grandmasters I ran in 2007 under a wide variety of conditions, that feels about right in human terms for Rapid. We used four cores and later eight cores in these matches, but of course a modern i7 is much superior per core to what we had in 2007, so perhaps today's single core is only slightly inferior hardware. Your data and estimates suggest that even a 2300 CCRL engine would be an even match with a 2677 FIDE human (I gather that was Polgar's rating at the time), so if we are both right this means that two elo points on CCRL is no more than one on the human scale! This is a larger contraction than almost anyone estimated. If it is correct, then if magnus is about 175 above what Polgar was back then, we should add 350 to 2300 to get 2650 as the CCRL Rapid rating needed to break even with Carlsen. This is close to Skill 24 on Dragon 2 which might indeed be a close match with Carlsen in Rapid, though I would still bet on Carlsen.
So what do you think? Would a 2650 CCRL engine be an equal opponent for Carlsen in Rapid? Some single thread examples close to 2650 include Gaviota 0.84, Scorpio 2.0, ProDeo 1.83c, Arasan 14.1, RedQueen 1.1.4, Minic 0.47, and Pawny 1.0. Who would you bet on, Carlsen or these engines on one thread at 15' + 10"?

[Chessqueen]

In 1999 Fritz 5.32 beats Judit Polgar with a 5.5-2.5 score at 30 minutes per game match. The performance of Fritz 5.32 at this match is 2814 elo.
Fritz 5.32 had played on a Pentium II/350 Mhz hardware. Fritz 5.32 is ~100 elo weaker than Fritz 8. The rating of Fritz 8 Bilbao is 2700 elo at CCRL 40/15 rating list.
In 1998 Rebel beat Anand at 2 semi-blitz games (15 minutes) match with a 1.5- 0.5 score (2986 elo performance). At 4 blitz games (5 min + 5 sec) Rebel beat Anand with a 3-1 score (2986 elo performance). Rebel had played on a K6-2 450 Mhz hardware. Anand had 2795 elo at 1998 July.
Fritz 5.32 at Pentium II/350 Mhz and Rebel K6-2 450 Mhz probably have a rating of around 2400 elo for CCRL (40/15).

Considering that Magnus Carlsen is the best player in history in rapid games a 2400-2450 elo chess engine has a low change to beat him.
But a chess engine around 2600 CCRL elo can beat Magnus Carlsen without much difficulty at rapid games.

The first result you mention is the most relevant since 15' + 10" Rapid is about like game in 25'. I think that a 2800 player today is a stronger Rapid player than a 2800 player of 20 years ago, due to getting so much more practice at fast play on the internet, but even so I agree with you that somewhere between 2450 and 2600 CCRL Rapid (let's say 2525, the middle) would be an equal opponent for Magnus in Rapid based on this historical evidence. But that's roughly Skill level 22 on Komodo Dragon 2, which was a close opponent for Jorge Sammour, whose FIDE is only 2458, four hundred elo below Carlsen! So I'm having a really tough time reconciling these facts. Obviously the crippled dragon plays quite differently than a full strength twenty year old engine, but it's not obvious why it would perform much worse vs. humans than an engine of equal strength based on direct play. Some mystery here....

At what time control you can give GM Nakamura a Knight Odds, can Komodo Dragon 2 beat him at at TC 10'+5" ?

[lkaufman]

In 1999 Fritz 5.32 beats Judit Polgar with a 5.5-2.5 score at 30 minutes per game match. The performance of Fritz 5.32 at this match is 2814 elo.
Fritz 5.32 had played on a Pentium II/350 Mhz hardware. Fritz 5.32 is ~100 elo weaker than Fritz 8. The rating of Fritz 8 Bilbao is 2700 elo at CCRL 40/15 rating list.
In 1998 Rebel beat Anand at 2 semi-blitz games (15 minutes) match with a 1.5- 0.5 score (2986 elo performance). At 4 blitz games (5 min + 5 sec) Rebel beat Anand with a 3-1 score (2986 elo performance). Rebel had played on a K6-2 450 Mhz hardware. Anand had 2795 elo at 1998 July.
Fritz 5.32 at Pentium II/350 Mhz and Rebel K6-2 450 Mhz probably have a rating of around 2400 elo for CCRL (40/15).

Considering that Magnus Carlsen is the best player in history in rapid games a 2400-2450 elo chess engine has a low change to beat him.
But a chess engine around 2600 CCRL elo can beat Magnus Carlsen without much difficulty at rapid games.

The first result you mention is the most relevant since 15' + 10" Rapid is about like game in 25'. I think that a 2800 player today is a stronger Rapid player than a 2800 player of 20 years ago, due to getting so much more practice at fast play on the internet, but even so I agree with you that somewhere between 2450 and 2600 CCRL Rapid (let's say 2525, the middle) would be an equal opponent for Magnus in Rapid based on this historical evidence. But that's roughly Skill level 22 on Komodo Dragon 2, which was a close opponent for Jorge Sammour, whose FIDE is only 2458, four hundred elo below Carlsen! So I'm having a really tough time reconciling these facts. Obviously the crippled dragon plays quite differently than a full strength twenty year old engine, but it's not obvious why it would perform much worse vs. humans than an engine of equal strength based on direct play. Some mystery here....

At what time control you can give GM Nakamura a Knight Odds, can Komodo Dragon 2 beat him at at TC 10'+5" ?

If you have been following our events, you should know that this is silly. We were about even giving GM Lenderman knight odds at time controls averaging around 6' + 1", and that was with draws counting as wins for Dragon. Lenderman is a pretty strong GM, but he's no Hikaru Nakamura. The fair time control for Nakamura at knight odds would be something like 2' + 1" or even 1' + 1". I believe that in a few years we'll be able to give knight odds to Nakamura (or another 2800+ FIDE Rapid player) at 15' + 10" rapid, but not by just improving the engine; it will require a breakthru in terms of setting problems for falllible, human opponents, not just playing to postpone losing.

[Chessqueen]

In 1999 Fritz 5.32 beats Judit Polgar with a 5.5-2.5 score at 30 minutes per game match. The performance of Fritz 5.32 at this match is 2814 elo.
Fritz 5.32 had played on a Pentium II/350 Mhz hardware. Fritz 5.32 is ~100 elo weaker than Fritz 8. The rating of Fritz 8 Bilbao is 2700 elo at CCRL 40/15 rating list.
In 1998 Rebel beat Anand at 2 semi-blitz games (15 minutes) match with a 1.5- 0.5 score (2986 elo performance). At 4 blitz games (5 min + 5 sec) Rebel beat Anand with a 3-1 score (2986 elo performance). Rebel had played on a K6-2 450 Mhz hardware. Anand had 2795 elo at 1998 July.
Fritz 5.32 at Pentium II/350 Mhz and Rebel K6-2 450 Mhz probably have a rating of around 2400 elo for CCRL (40/15).

Considering that Magnus Carlsen is the best player in history in rapid games a 2400-2450 elo chess engine has a low change to beat him.
But a chess engine around 2600 CCRL elo can beat Magnus Carlsen without much difficulty at rapid games.

The first result you mention is the most relevant since 5' + 10" Rapid is about like game in 25'. I think that a 2800 player today is a stronger Rapid player than a 2800 player of 20 years ago, due to getting so much more practice at fast play on the internet, but even so I agree with you that somewhere between 2450 and 2600 CCRL Rapid (let's say 2525, the middle) would be an equal opponent for Magnus in Rapid based on this historical evidence. But that's roughly Skill level 22 on Komodo Dragon 2, which was a close opponent for Jorge Sammour, whose FIDE is only 2458, four hundred elo below Carlsen! So I'm having a really tough time reconciling these facts. Obviously the crippled dragon plays quite differently than a full strength twenty year old engine, but it's not obvious why it would perform much worse vs. humans than an engine of equal strength based on direct play. Some mystery here....

At what time control you can give GM Nakamura a Knight Odds, can Komodo Dragon 2 beat him at at TC 10'+5" ?

Sorry meant to write TC 5'+10" Not the other way around

If you have been following our events, you should know that this is silly. We were about even giving GM Lenderman knight odds at time controls averaging around 6' + 1", and that was with draws counting as wins for Dragon. Lenderman is a pretty strong GM, but he's no Hikaru Nakamura. The fair time control for Nakamura at knight odds would be something like 2' + 1" or even 1' + 1". I believe that in a few years we'll be able to give knight odds to Nakamura (or another 2800+ FIDE Rapid player) at 15' + 10" rapid, but not by just improving the engine; it will require a breakthru in terms of setting problems for falllible, human opponents, not just playing to postpone losing.

Well I meant probably in 5 years from now with Computer 3 times stronger and much better chess algorithm, and probably at TC 5'+10", will it ever be possible ?