Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

Moderator: Ras

Who will Win?

Poll ended at Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:33 pm

Magnus Carlsen
31
74%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
11
26%
 
Total votes: 42

Chessqueen
Posts: 5685
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:16 am
Location: Moving
Full name: Jorge Picado

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Chessqueen »

The color does not matter, it is all about who move first, so here I did a little experiment, gave the Black piece to Komodo dragon without the e7 pawn or e7 pawn odds but allowed the Black pieces to move first. I know that some of you will say come on that is not how to play chess, White should always move first, but I was only experimenting to see what happened and a Draw was agreed.

Note: You want to confuse your friend play a game of chess where black move first, as a matter of fact by having engines matches with all the pieces where Black move first most of the chess Openings can be thrown into the garbage and only engines with best chess knowledge will win :mrgreen:

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Black "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "3640"]
[Time "15:50:11"]
[WhiteElo "3660"]
[TimeControl "900+3"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppp1ppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR b KQkq - 1 1"]
[Termination "adjudication"]
[PlyCount "286"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. ... d5 2. Nf3 c5 3. d4 Nc6 4. c3 Nf6 5. Be3 Qb6 6. Qc1 cxd4 7. Bxd4 Nxd4
8. Nxd4 Bc5 9. e3 O-O 10. Bd3 a6 11. O-O g6 12. Nd2 Bd7 13. N2f3 Rfe8 14.
Qc2 Qd6 15. Rfd1 Qe7 16. Qe2 Rac8 17. Bc2 Kg7 18. h3 Ba7 19. Bb3 Rc5 20.
Ne1 Qd6 21. Nd3 Rcc8 22. Qf3 Bb8 23. Nf4 Rc5 24. Bc2 h5 25. Qg3 Qb6 26. Bd3
a5 27. Rab1 a4 28. Qh4 Qd8 29. Nf3 Qc8 30. a3 Bc7 31. Bc2 Bd8 32. Qg3 h4
33. Nxh4 Ne4 34. Nh5+ Kg8 35. Bxe4 dxe4 36. Nxg6 Rg5 37. Qd6 Bxh3 38. Ngf4
Bxg2 39. Nxg2 Rxh5 40. Qd7 Bc7 41. Qxc8 Rxc8 42. Kf1 Rh2 43. Rbc1 Kg7 44.
Ne1 Be5 45. Rd5 Kf6 46. Rcd1 Rg8 47. Rb5 Rh1+ 48. Ke2 Rgg1 49. Rb6+ Kf5 50.
Rxb7 f6 51. Re7 Bb8 52. Re8 Bg3 53. c4 Rh2 54. Rd5+ Kg6 55. Rg8+ Kf7 56.
Rxg3 Rxg3 57. Rd4 f5 58. c5 f4 59. Rxe4 Rxe3+ 60. Rxe3 fxe3 61. Kxe3 Ke6
62. Nf3 Rh5 63. c6 Kd6 64. Nd4 Rh7 65. f4 Kd5 66. f5 Rh3+ 67. Nf3 Kxc6 68.
Ke4 Kd6 69. f6 Rh8 70. Kf5 Rb8 71. Nd2 Kd7 72. Nc4 Rb5+ 73. Ne5+ Kd6 74. f7
Ke7 75. Ke4 Rxb2 76. Nd7 Kxf7 77. Nc5 Rh2 78. Kd5 Rh4 79. Kc6 Kf6 80. Kb5
Ke5 81. Nxa4 Kd6 82. Nb6 Rh5+ 83. Kb4 Kc6 84. Nc4 Rh4 85. Kc3 Kc5 86. Ne3
Ra4 87. Nc2 Rf4 88. Kd3 Rc4 89. Na1 Rd4+ 90. Kc3 Rh4 91. Nb3+ Kb6 92. Nd4
Rh3+ 93. Kc4 Rh5 94. Ne2 Rh4+ 95. Nd4 Ka5 96. Kc3 Rh5 97. Nc2 Rh3+ 98. Kd4
Rh2 99. Nb4 Rh4+ 100. Kc5 Ka4 101. Kd6 Kb3 102. Nd5 Kc4 103. Ne7 Rh6+ 104.
Kd7 Ra6 105. a4 Rh6 106. a5 Ra6 107. Nc6 Kc5 108. Nd8 Kd5 109. Nb7 Rg6 110.
Nd8 Rg7+ 111. Ke8 Ra7 112. a6 Rxa6 113. Ke7 Ke4 114. Kd7 Kd5 115. Ke7 Ra2
116. Nf7 Ra7+ 117. Kf6 Ra6+ 118. Ke7 Re6+ 119. Kd7 Re1 120. Nd8 Ra1 121.
Nc6 Rd1 122. Nd8 Ra1 123. Nc6 Kc5 124. Nd8 Ra7+ 125. Ke6 Ra8 126. Ke7 Kd5
127. Nf7 Ra7+ 128. Kf6 Ra5 129. Ke7 Ra8 130. Nd8 Ra7+ 131. Kf6 Ra1 132. Ke7
Rf1 133. Nf7 Rd1 134. Nd8 Rf1 135. Nf7 Rf2 136. Nd8 Re2+ 137. Kd7 Re1 138.
Nf7 Ke4 139. Ke6 Ra1 140. Ng5+ Kf4 141. Nh3+ Ke3 142. Ng5 Ra5 143. Nf7 Kd4
144. Nd6 1/2-1/2[/pgn]
lkaufman
Posts: 6239
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:15 am
Location: Maryland USA
Full name: Larry Kaufman

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by lkaufman »

Chessqueen wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:46 pm
Uri Blass wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:57 pm I see that if I remove pieces of both sides stockfish's evaluation is relatively better and it does not claim that the value of bishop is bigger in this case.

When I remove a rook for one side and a bishop for the other side stockfish evaluate correctly the better side when the main problem is evaluating unbalanced positions when one side has a big advantage.

It may be interesting to have a rating list when you remove part of both pieces.

For example the following position
[fen]rn1qkbnr/pppp1ppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/1NBQKBNR w Kkq - 0 1 [/fen]

I wonder if stockfish is right when it considers it to be equal or old engines are right when they usually consider black to be better.

I am surprised that stockfish10 that does not use NNUE consider white to be better.
Also the first move is worth almost a pawn, if I told you that Stocfish can give the e2 pawn odds and still draw to Komodo Dragon, most people here would say NO that is impossible, but to move first is worth a pawn and here it is

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Black "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "3600"]
[Time "08:08:36"]
[WhiteElo "3640"]
[TimeControl "600+3"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - 0 1"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "100"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. c4 Be6 4. Qb3 dxc4 5. Qxb7 Bd5 6. Qb5+ c6 7. Qa4
Bxf3 8. gxf3 Qxd4 9. Nc3 e6 10. Be3 Qd6 11. Bxc4 Be7 12. Ne4 Nxe4 13. fxe4
O-O 14. Be2 Nd7 15. Rd1 Qc7 16. O-O Bd6 17. Qc2 Bxh2+ 18. Kg2 Be5 19. f4
Bf6 20. e5 Be7 21. Rh1 g6 22. Rh3 Rfd8 23. Rdh1 Nf8 24. Bc4 Rab8 25. b3 Rb4
26. Kf3 h5 27. Rg3 h4 28. Rg4 c5 29. Qh2 Rxc4 30. bxc4 f5 31. Rxh4 Bxh4 32.
Qxh4 Qb7+ 33. Kf2 Qb2+ 34. Kf3 Rd3 35. Qh8+ Kf7 36. Qf6+ Ke8 37. Rh8 Rxe3+
38. Kxe3 Qd4+ 39. Kf3 Qe4+ 40. Kf2 Qxf4+ 41. Kg2 Qd2+ 42. Kf3 Qd1+ 43. Kf2
Qc2+ 44. Kf3 Qd3+ 45. Kg2 Qe2+ 46. Kh3 Qf3+ 47. Kh2 Qf2+ 48. Kh3 Qf3+ 49.
Kh2 Qf2+ 50. Kh3 Qf3+ {3-fold repetition} 1/2-1/2[/pgn]
First move is worth only a quarter of a pawn or a bit less, but draw odds are nearly 3/4 of a pawn, so if you ask whether White can hold a draw giving a "par" pawn (b2,c2,d2, or e2) it's a fairly even bet with equal players. Actually I've tested this in thousands of games with those four pawns between identical engines (both Dragon or both Stockfish) and although White loses more than he draws it's reasonably close, under 60% wins for Black overall (b2 pawn seems to be the closest). So given that SF is at least still slightly stronger than Dragon right now, this should be close to a tossup.
Komodo rules!
Chessqueen
Posts: 5685
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:16 am
Location: Moving
Full name: Jorge Picado

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Chessqueen »

Chessqueen wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:33 pm The color does not matter, it is all about who move first, so here I did a little experiment, gave the Black piece to Komodo dragon without the e7 pawn or e7 pawn odds but allowed the Black pieces to move first. I know that some of you will say come on that is not how to play chess, White should always move first, but I was only experimenting to see what happened and a Draw was agreed.

Note: As a matter of fact by having engines matches where Black move first most of the chess Openings can be thrown into the garbage and only engines with best chess knowledge will win

Note: As you noticed most engines without Openings will have to reinvented the best opening whereas Human GM might have a small advantage since of the human brain pattern recognition by switching the color but relying on moves orders and pattern recognition, for instance what would this opening be called, most engines would not even know but humans will. amazing brain :roll:

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Black "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Result "*"]
[BlackElo "3600"]
[Time "16:50:10"]
[WhiteElo "3640"]
[TimeControl "600+10"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR b KQkq - 0 1"]
[Termination "unterminated"]
[PlyCount "39"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. ... d5 2. Nf3 c5 3. c3 e6 4. d4 Nc6 5. e3 Nf6 6. Nbd2 Qc7 7. Bd3 Bd6 8.
dxc5 Bxc5 9. O-O O-O 10. a3 Rd8 11. b4 Bd6 12. Qc2 Ne5 13. Nxe5 Bxe5 14.
Nf3 Bd6 15. c4 dxc4 16. Qxc4 a5 17. bxa5 Qxc4 18. Bxc4 Rxa5 19. Bb2 Bd7 20.
h3 h6 *


[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Black "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "3640"]
[Time "15:50:11"]
[WhiteElo "3660"]
[TimeControl "900+3"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppp1ppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR b KQkq - 1 1"]
[Termination "adjudication"]
[PlyCount "286"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. ... d5 2. Nf3 c5 3. d4 Nc6 4. c3 Nf6 5. Be3 Qb6 6. Qc1 cxd4 7. Bxd4 Nxd4
8. Nxd4 Bc5 9. e3 O-O 10. Bd3 a6 11. O-O g6 12. Nd2 Bd7 13. N2f3 Rfe8 14.
Qc2 Qd6 15. Rfd1 Qe7 16. Qe2 Rac8 17. Bc2 Kg7 18. h3 Ba7 19. Bb3 Rc5 20.
Ne1 Qd6 21. Nd3 Rcc8 22. Qf3 Bb8 23. Nf4 Rc5 24. Bc2 h5 25. Qg3 Qb6 26. Bd3
a5 27. Rab1 a4 28. Qh4 Qd8 29. Nf3 Qc8 30. a3 Bc7 31. Bc2 Bd8 32. Qg3 h4
33. Nxh4 Ne4 34. Nh5+ Kg8 35. Bxe4 dxe4 36. Nxg6 Rg5 37. Qd6 Bxh3 38. Ngf4
Bxg2 39. Nxg2 Rxh5 40. Qd7 Bc7 41. Qxc8 Rxc8 42. Kf1 Rh2 43. Rbc1 Kg7 44.
Ne1 Be5 45. Rd5 Kf6 46. Rcd1 Rg8 47. Rb5 Rh1+ 48. Ke2 Rgg1 49. Rb6+ Kf5 50.
Rxb7 f6 51. Re7 Bb8 52. Re8 Bg3 53. c4 Rh2 54. Rd5+ Kg6 55. Rg8+ Kf7 56.
Rxg3 Rxg3 57. Rd4 f5 58. c5 f4 59. Rxe4 Rxe3+ 60. Rxe3 fxe3 61. Kxe3 Ke6
62. Nf3 Rh5 63. c6 Kd6 64. Nd4 Rh7 65. f4 Kd5 66. f5 Rh3+ 67. Nf3 Kxc6 68.
Ke4 Kd6 69. f6 Rh8 70. Kf5 Rb8 71. Nd2 Kd7 72. Nc4 Rb5+ 73. Ne5+ Kd6 74. f7
Ke7 75. Ke4 Rxb2 76. Nd7 Kxf7 77. Nc5 Rh2 78. Kd5 Rh4 79. Kc6 Kf6 80. Kb5
Ke5 81. Nxa4 Kd6 82. Nb6 Rh5+ 83. Kb4 Kc6 84. Nc4 Rh4 85. Kc3 Kc5 86. Ne3
Ra4 87. Nc2 Rf4 88. Kd3 Rc4 89. Na1 Rd4+ 90. Kc3 Rh4 91. Nb3+ Kb6 92. Nd4
Rh3+ 93. Kc4 Rh5 94. Ne2 Rh4+ 95. Nd4 Ka5 96. Kc3 Rh5 97. Nc2 Rh3+ 98. Kd4
Rh2 99. Nb4 Rh4+ 100. Kc5 Ka4 101. Kd6 Kb3 102. Nd5 Kc4 103. Ne7 Rh6+ 104.
Kd7 Ra6 105. a4 Rh6 106. a5 Ra6 107. Nc6 Kc5 108. Nd8 Kd5 109. Nb7 Rg6 110.
Nd8 Rg7+ 111. Ke8 Ra7 112. a6 Rxa6 113. Ke7 Ke4 114. Kd7 Kd5 115. Ke7 Ra2
116. Nf7 Ra7+ 117. Kf6 Ra6+ 118. Ke7 Re6+ 119. Kd7 Re1 120. Nd8 Ra1 121.
Nc6 Rd1 122. Nd8 Ra1 123. Nc6 Kc5 124. Nd8 Ra7+ 125. Ke6 Ra8 126. Ke7 Kd5
127. Nf7 Ra7+ 128. Kf6 Ra5 129. Ke7 Ra8 130. Nd8 Ra7+ 131. Kf6 Ra1 132. Ke7
Rf1 133. Nf7 Rd1 134. Nd8 Rf1 135. Nf7 Rf2 136. Nd8 Re2+ 137. Kd7 Re1 138.
Nf7 Ke4 139. Ke6 Ra1 140. Ng5+ Kf4 141. Nh3+ Ke3 142. Ng5 Ra5 143. Nf7 Kd4
144. Nd6 1/2-1/2[/pgn][/pgn]
Uri Blass
Posts: 10825
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Uri Blass »

Chessqueen wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:46 pm
Uri Blass wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:57 pm I see that if I remove pieces of both sides stockfish's evaluation is relatively better and it does not claim that the value of bishop is bigger in this case.

When I remove a rook for one side and a bishop for the other side stockfish evaluate correctly the better side when the main problem is evaluating unbalanced positions when one side has a big advantage.

It may be interesting to have a rating list when you remove part of both pieces.

For example the following position
[fen]rn1qkbnr/pppp1ppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/1NBQKBNR w Kkq - 0 1 [/fen]

I wonder if stockfish is right when it considers it to be equal or old engines are right when they usually consider black to be better.

I am surprised that stockfish10 that does not use NNUE consider white to be better.
Also the first move is worth almost a pawn, if I told you that Stocfish can give the e2 pawn odds and still draw to Komodo Dragon, most people here would say NO that is impossible, but to move first is worth a pawn and here it is

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Black "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[BlackElo "3600"]
[Time "08:08:36"]
[WhiteElo "3640"]
[TimeControl "600+3"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - 0 1"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "100"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. c4 Be6 4. Qb3 dxc4 5. Qxb7 Bd5 6. Qb5+ c6 7. Qa4
Bxf3 8. gxf3 Qxd4 9. Nc3 e6 10. Be3 Qd6 11. Bxc4 Be7 12. Ne4 Nxe4 13. fxe4
O-O 14. Be2 Nd7 15. Rd1 Qc7 16. O-O Bd6 17. Qc2 Bxh2+ 18. Kg2 Be5 19. f4
Bf6 20. e5 Be7 21. Rh1 g6 22. Rh3 Rfd8 23. Rdh1 Nf8 24. Bc4 Rab8 25. b3 Rb4
26. Kf3 h5 27. Rg3 h4 28. Rg4 c5 29. Qh2 Rxc4 30. bxc4 f5 31. Rxh4 Bxh4 32.
Qxh4 Qb7+ 33. Kf2 Qb2+ 34. Kf3 Rd3 35. Qh8+ Kf7 36. Qf6+ Ke8 37. Rh8 Rxe3+
38. Kxe3 Qd4+ 39. Kf3 Qe4+ 40. Kf2 Qxf4+ 41. Kg2 Qd2+ 42. Kf3 Qd1+ 43. Kf2
Qc2+ 44. Kf3 Qd3+ 45. Kg2 Qe2+ 46. Kh3 Qf3+ 47. Kh2 Qf2+ 48. Kh3 Qf3+ 49.
Kh2 Qf2+ 50. Kh3 Qf3+ {3-fold repetition} 1/2-1/2[/pgn]
It does not mean that to move first is worth a pawn.
It is possible that a pawn for a move is better for the pawn but not enough to win and it is possible that engines do not play perfect chess.
Uri Blass
Posts: 10825
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Uri Blass »

I can add that I believe that engines do not play perfect chess and I even doubt if they can win against every defence with a knight handicap or more than it.

This is probably too big handicap for a draw but I see stockfish showing a stupid analysis and does not make progress in the evaluation in a reasonable time so my guess that in some position with big material advantage it is possible to get a fortress and draw(of course with queen and 2 rooks handicap it is probably impossible because the 50 move rule is going to push stockfish to get progress).

I think that the main problem is that testing is done wrong(the rules of the testing should say that winning with less moves give more points so you can test changes also in obvoiusly losing positions).
I suggest the following score for games during testing of engine-engine games.
Score of the winner is 1-0.0001*number of moves.
score is 0.5 if the result is a draw.



[fen]1nb1kbn1/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1[/fen]

Stockfish_21121413_x64_avx2:
NNUE evaluation using nn-d93927199b3d.nnue enabled
1/1 00:00 148 74k +23.69 e2-e3
2/2 00:00 389 195k +23.53 Nb1-c3 a7-a6
3/3 00:00 918 459k +23.65 Ng1-f3 e7-e6 Nb1-c3
4/4 00:00 3k 1,366k +24.07 Ng1-f3 e7-e6 Nb1-c3 c7-c6
5/5 00:00 7k 3,563k +23.76 Ng1-f3 a7-a6 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 d2-d3
6/6 00:00 19k 6,419k +23.46 Nb1-c3 c7-c6 Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6 e2-e4 e7-e6
7/8 00:00 31k 6,267k +23.50 Nb1-c3 c7-c6 Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6 e2-e4 e7-e6 a2-a3
8/8 00:00 60k 8,641k +23.42 Nb1-c3 a7-a6 Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6 e2-e4 Nb8-c6 d2-d3 e7-e6
9/10 00:00 143k 10,984k +23.38 Nb1-c3 Ng8-f6 Nc3-b5 a7-a6 Nb5xc7+ Ke8-d8 Nc7-a8 Nb8-c6 g2-g3
10/13 00:00 272k 11,353k +23.46 Nb1-a3 Nb8-c6 Na3-b5 Ke8-d8 Ng1-f3 e7-e6 Nf3-g5 a7-a6 Ng5xh7 a6xb5 Nh7xf8
11/14 00:00 860k 9,349k +23.19 c2-c3 Nb8-c6 d2-d4 Ng8-f6 Nb1-d2 e7-e6 e2-e4 d7-d5 e4xd5 e6xd5 Ng1-e2
12/16 00:00 1,140k 9,824k +23.30 d2-d4 e7-e6 c2-c3 Ng8-f6 Nb1-d2 Nb8-c6 Ng1-f3 d7-d5 Qd1-c2 Bf8-d6 e2-e3 Ke8-f8
13/16 00:00 1,316k 10,123k +23.30 d2-d4 e7-e6 c2-c3 Ng8-f6 Nb1-d2 Nb8-c6 Ng1-f3 d7-d5 Qd1-c2 Bf8-d6 e2-e3 Ke8-f8 Bf1-d3
14/20 00:00 1,666k 10,481k +23.30 d2-d4 Ng8-f6 c2-c3 Nb8-c6 f2-f3 g7-g6 d4-d5 Nc6-e5 Qd1-d4 d7-d6 Qd4-a4+ c7-c6 e2-e4 Nf6-d7 Qa4xa7
15/21 00:00 2,455k 11,109k +23.23 d2-d4 Ng8-f6 Nb1-d2 e7-e6 e2-e3 b7-b6 a2-a3 Bc8-b7 f2-f3 Bf8-d6 Ng1-e2 Nb8-c6 c2-c3 Ke8-f8 Ke1-f2 Kf8-g8 g2-g3
16/23 00:00 5,578k 12,735k +23.34 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 f2-f4 Ke8-f8 d2-d3 g7-g6 Nb1-d2 Bc8-a6 Rf1-f3 Kf8-g7 c2-c4 Ba6-b7
17/21 00:00 5,635k 12,663k +23.42 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 f2-f4 Ke8-f8 d2-d3 g7-g6 c2-c4 Kf8-g7 a2-a3 Kg7-g8 Nb1-c3 Bc8-a6
18/22 00:00 6,157k 12,669k +23.46 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Nb1-d2 Bc8-b7 a2-a3 g7-g6 b2-b4 Kf8-g8
19/19 00:00 6,301k 12,703k +23.46 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Nb1-d2 Bc8-b7 a2-a3 g7-g6 b2-b4 Kf8-g8 b4-b5
20/22 00:00 7,023k 12,700k +23.42 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 d2-d3 Bf8-b4+ c2-c3 Bb4-e7 O-O Ke8-f8 c3-c4 Kf8-g8 a2-a3 Nc6-a5 Nb1-d2 Bc8-b7 e3-e4
21/22 00:00 7,109k 12,718k +23.42 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Nb1-d2 Kf8-g8 f2-f4 g7-g6 c2-c3 Bc8-a6 Nd2-f3 Kg8-f8 c3-c4
22/24 00:00 7,407k 12,704k +23.42 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 a2-a3 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 g7-g6 c2-c4 a7-a5 Qd1-c2 Bc8-a6 d3-d4 Ba6-b7
23/25 00:00 8,394k 12,738k +23.38 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 e7-e6 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Nb1-d2 Kf8-g8 a2-a3 a7-a5 c2-c4 g7-g6 d3-d4 Bc8-b7 Qd1-b3 Nf6-g4 d4-d5
24/26 00:00 10,924k 13,052k +23.38 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 e7-e6 Ng1-e2 b7-b6 O-O Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Nb1-d2 Kf8-g8 a2-a3 a7-a5 d3-d4 g7-g6 c2-c4 h7-h5 Ra1-a2 Bc8-a6 b2-b3 Ba6-b7
25/37 00:01 25,655k 13,376k +23.34 g2-g3 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 e7-e5 a2-a3 d7-d5 h2-h3 e5-e4 Nb1-c3 Bf8-d6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 Ng1-e2 Nc6-e5 d3xe4 d5xe4 Nc3-b5 Ne5-c6 Nb5xd6 c7xd6 Qd1xd6+ Kf8-g8 Ke1-f1 Bc8-e6 g3-g4 Be6-c4
26/33 00:03 41,039k 13,455k +23.30 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 e2-e3 e7-e5 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 Ng1-e2 e5-e4 h2-h3 Nb8-c6 d2-d4 b7-b6 Nb1-d2 Nc6-a5 b2-b3 Bc8-a6 a2-a3 Ke8-d8 Ne2-c3 Kd8-c8 g3-g4 h7-h6 h3-h4 c7-c5 d4xc5 b6xc5 g4-g5
27/36 00:03 44,679k 13,458k +23.30 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 d7-d5 h2-h3 e7-e5 Ng1-e2 e5-e4 d2-d4 b7-b6 Nb1-d2 Nc6-a5 b2-b3 Bc8-a6 a2-a3 Ke8-d8 Ne2-c3 Kd8-c8 g3-g4 h7-h6 h3-h4 c7-c5 d4xc5 b6xc5 g4-g5 h6xg5 h4xg5
28/39 00:04 60,361k 13,476k +23.30 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 Nb8-c6 e2-e3 d7-d5 a2-a3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 Ng1-e2 Ke8-f8 O-O d5-d4 d2-d3 d4xe3 f2xe3 Bc8-e6 Nb1-c3 Kf8-g8 g3-g4 h7-h6 b2-b4 a7-a6 Ra1-b1 Nf6-d7 Rf1-f3 Nd7-f6
29/40 00:07 106,067k 13,445k +23.26 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 Ng1-e2 Nb8-c6 g3-g4 d5-d4 O-O Bc8-e6 d2-d3 d4xe3 f2xe3 Be6-d5 e3-e4 Bd5-e6 c2-c3 Bd6-c5+ Kg1-h2 Ke8-f8 b2-b4 Bc5-b6 a2-a4 a7-a5 g4-g5 Nf6-d7 b4-b5 Nc6-e7 h3-h4
30/35 00:08 112,492k 13,419k +23.30 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 Ng1-e2 Nb8-c6 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 g3-g4 d5-d4 O-O Bc8-e6 d2-d3 Ke8-f8 e3-e4 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 Nf6-d7 Nd2-f3 Nd7-c5 c2-c3 Nc5-d7 Rf1-e1 f7-f6 c3xd4 Nc6xd4 Ne2xd4
31/38 00:12 171,243k 13,437k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 Ng1-e2 Nb8-c6 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 g3-g4 d5-d4 O-O Bc8-e6 g4-g5 Nf6-d5 c2-c4 Nd5-b6 b2-b3 Bd6-e7 h3-h4 Ke8-f8 f2-f3 f7-f6 f3-f4 Be6-f7 g5xf6 g7xf6 f4xe5
32/36 00:30 403,412k 13,422k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 Ng1-e2 Nb8-c6 a2-a3 Ke8-f8 O-O b7-b6 Ne2-c3 Bc8-a6 d2-d3 e5-e4 f2-f4 e4xf3/ep Qd1xf3 Nc6-e5 Qf3-f5 c7-c6 Nb1-d2 Ba6-b7 Ra1-a2 Ne5-g6 Qf5-f2 Ng6-e5 Nd2-b3 Kf8-g8 g3-g4 Bd6-c7 g4-g5
33/39 00:30 403,557k 13,422k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 a2-a3 b7-b6 d2-d3 e5-e4 f2-f4 e4xf3/ep Qd1xf3 Nb8-d7 Ng1-e2 Nd7-e5 Qf3-f2 Bc8-e6 Nb1-d2 c7-c5 b2-b3 Ke8-f8 O-O Ne5-c6 Ra1-b1 h7-h6 Bc1-b2 Bd6-e5 d3-d4 Be5-d6 Ne2-c3 c5xd4 e3xd4 Nf6-e4
34/38 00:30 404,645k 13,421k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 a2-a3 b7-b6 d2-d3 e5-e4 f2-f4 e4xf3/ep Qd1xf3 Nb8-d7 Ng1-e2 Nd7-e5 Qf3-f2 Bc8-e6 Nb1-d2 c7-c5 b2-b3 Ke8-f8 O-O Ne5-c6 Ra1-b1 h7-h6 Bc1-b2 Bd6-e5 d3-d4 Be5-d6 Ne2-c3 c5xd4 e3xd4 Nf6-e4 Nc3xe4
35/41 00:31 421,495k 13,460k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 a2-a3 b7-b6 d2-d3 e5-e4 f2-f4 e4xf3/ep Qd1xf3 Nb8-d7 Ng1-e2 Nd7-e5 Qf3-f2 Bc8-e6 O-O c7-c5 Nb1-c3 Ke8-f8 g3-g4 h7-h6 Bc1-d2 Bd6-b8 Ra1-b1 Kf8-g8 Rb1-d1 Ne5-c6 d3-d4 Bb8-d6 b2-b3 a7-a6 d4xc5
36/56 01:21 1,049,987k 12,939k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 e2-e3 e7-e5 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 a2-a3 b7-b6 d2-d3 e5-e4 f2-f4 e4xf3/ep Qd1xf3 Nb8-c6 Ng1-e2 Ke8-f8 O-O Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 Nc6-e5 Qf3-f2 Bc8-e6 b2-b3 c7-c5 Bc1-b2 Ne5-c6 Ra1-e1 h7-h6 Re1-d1 Nc6-e5 d3-d4 c5xd4 e3xd4 Ne5-c6 Ne2-c3 Kg8-f8
37/47 01:47 1,361,690k 12,688k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 d2-d3 e7-e5 Ng1-f3 Bf8-d6 O-O Nb8-c6 Nf3-e1 Ke8-f8 c2-c3 e5-e4 d3-d4 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 g7-g6 b2-b3 Nc6-e7 Ne1-c2 c7-c5 Bc1-b2 c5xd4 c3xd4 h7-h5 Qd1-e1 Bc8-d7 a2-a3 Ne7-f5 Bb2-c3 Bd6-c7 a3-a4 h5-h4 Nc2-b4 h4xg3 h2xg3
38/45 01:52 1,425,786k 12,635k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 d2-d3 e7-e5 Ng1-f3 Bf8-d6 O-O Nb8-c6 Nf3-e1 Ke8-f8 c2-c3 e5-e4 d3-d4 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 g7-g6 b2-b3 Nc6-e7 Ne1-c2 c7-c5 Bc1-a3 b7-b6 Ba3-c1 c5xd4 c3xd4 a7-a5 a2-a3 Bc8-a6 Bc1-b2 Ne7-f5 Rf1-e1 Ba6-b5 Bb2-c3 a5-a4
39/43 01:53 1,433,248k 12,632k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 d2-d3 e7-e5 Ng1-f3 Bf8-d6 O-O Nb8-c6 Nf3-e1 Ke8-f8 c2-c3 e5-e4 d3-d4 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 g7-g6 Ne1-c2 Nc6-e7 Ra1-b1 c7-c6 b2-b3 h7-h5 Bc1-b2 h5-h4 Rf1-e1 h4xg3 h2xg3 Ne7-f5 e2-e3 Bd6-b8 c3-c4 Nf5-d6 c4xd5 c6xd5 a2-a4 Bc8-g4
40/48 02:45 2,061,735k 12,458k +23.23 g2-g3 Ng8-f6 Bf1-g2 d7-d5 d2-d3 e7-e5 Ng1-f3 Bf8-d6 O-O Nb8-c6 Nf3-e1 Ke8-f8 c2-c3 e5-e4 d3-d4 Kf8-g8 Nb1-d2 g7-g6 Ne1-c2 Nc6-e7 Ra1-b1 c7-c6 a2-a4 Bc8-g4 c3-c4 h7-h5 b2-b3 Bg4-e6 e2-e3 Be6-g4 Qd1-e1 Bg4-f3 Nd2xf3 e4xf3 Bg2xf3 Nf6-e4 h2-h4 Ne7-f5 c4xd5 c6xd5
41/50 06:25 4,797,094k 12,430k +23.23 g2-g3 d7-d5 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 d2-d3 Nb8-c6 Nb1-d2 e7-e5 a2-a3 Bf8-d6 c2-c3 Ke8-f8 e2-e3 e5-e4 d3-d4 Nc6-a5 b2-b3 b7-b6 Qd1-c2 Bc8-e6 h2-h3 c7-c5 Ng1-e2 c5-c4 b3-b4 Na5-b3 Nd2xb3 c4xb3 Qc2xb3 Be6-d7 b4-b5 Bd6-e7 O-O Bd7-e6 a3-a4 g7-g6 a4-a5 Kf8-g8 a5-a6 Be7-d8 Qb3-b4 Bd8-c7 Qb4-e7 Nf6-d7 f2-f3 e4xf3
42/44 06:29 4,836,047k 12,429k +23.23 g2-g3 d7-d5 Bf1-g2 Ng8-f6 d2-d3 Nb8-c6 Nb1-d2 e7-e5 Ke1-f1 Bc8-e6 h2-h3 Bf8-d6 e2-e3 d5-d4 e3-e4 Ke8-f8 Ng1-e2 Nf6-d7 Nd2-f3 f7-f6 a2-a3 Kf8-g8 Qd1-e1 Nd7-c5 Rh1-h2 a7-a6 Nf3-d2 g7-g6 f2-f3 f6-f5 Kf1-g1 Be6-f7 Qe1-f2 Bf7-e6 b2-b3 h7-h5 Bc1-b2 f5xe4 f3xe4 Be6-f7 b3-b4
Chessqueen
Posts: 5685
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:16 am
Location: Moving
Full name: Jorge Picado

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Chessqueen »

That is an Analysis output but if you let it play it down it is an easy win. I chose, snowy but even the lowest rated engine listed on CCRL can beat stockfish

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Snowy_0_2_x64"]
[Black "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Result "1-0"]
[BlackElo "3640"]
[Time "20:42:38"]
[WhiteElo "2000"]
[TimeControl "180+1"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "1nb1kbn1/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "10"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. Nc3 c6 2. Nf3 g6 3. e4 d6 4. Be2 Bg4 5. O-O Nd7 {Black resigns} *[/pgn]
Chessqueen
Posts: 5685
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:16 am
Location: Moving
Full name: Jorge Picado

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Chessqueen »

This is one of the lowest rated engine on CCRL rated 1200

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Belofte64-2.1.2.4"]
[Black "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Result "1-0"]
[BlackElo "3640"]
[Time "22:10:22"]
[WhiteElo "2000"]
[TimeControl "180+1"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "1nb1kbn1/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "30"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. e4 b6 2. Nc3 Ba6 3. d4 Bxf1 4. Kxf1 c6 5. Qh5 h6 6. Bf4 Nf6 7. Qh3 Na6
8. Nf3 g5 9. Nxg5 hxg5 10. Bxg5 Bg7 11. e5 Ng8 12. Ne4 Nc7 13. Qh7 Kf8 14.
Rd1 a6 15. Ng3 e6 {Black resigns} *[/pgn]
Uri Blass
Posts: 10825
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Uri Blass »

Chessqueen wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 5:42 am This is one of the lowest rated engine on CCRL rated 1200

[pgn][Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "MININT-UB2PIMJ"]
[Date "2021.12.16"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Belofte64-2.1.2.4"]
[Black "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Result "1-0"]
[BlackElo "3640"]
[Time "22:10:22"]
[WhiteElo "2000"]
[TimeControl "180+1"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "1nb1kbn1/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "30"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. e4 b6 2. Nc3 Ba6 3. d4 Bxf1 4. Kxf1 c6 5. Qh5 h6 6. Bf4 Nf6 7. Qh3 Na6
8. Nf3 g5 9. Nxg5 hxg5 10. Bxg5 Bg7 11. e5 Ng8 12. Ne4 Nc7 13. Qh7 Kf8 14.
Rd1 a6 15. Ng3 e6 {Black resigns} *[/pgn]
Of course Stockfish is going to lose it with black and my point is that stockfish does not understand it and not that the weak engines do not understand it.
If Stockfish play it with white I will not be surprised to see a long game when stockfish wins only thanks to avoiding the 50 move rule because it seems to have no idea how to make progress.
Cornfed
Posts: 511
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:40 pm
Full name: Brian D. Smith

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Cornfed »

Uri Blass wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:34 am
Of course Stockfish is going to lose it with black and my point is that stockfish does not understand it and not that the weak engines do not understand it.
If Stockfish play it with white I will not be surprised to see a long game when stockfish wins only thanks to avoiding the 50 move rule because it seems to have no idea how to make progress.
Isn't this a 'problem' pointed out a few weeks ago (not in the opening position)...a queen down position or something. I sure thought I read some steps had or were being taken to address the issue in recent development builds....perhaps I misremember though.
Uri Blass
Posts: 10825
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

Post by Uri Blass »

I read they did some steps to prevent losing with queen handicap but I still suspect that you can draw with stockfish with a big handicap.