Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[Chessqueen]

I think pretty much everyone now agrees that Hans was a prolific serial cheater online, and that he also cheated OTB in at least one tournament. This is enough evidence to require further investigation of ALL his previous online and OTB tournaments. The data of those tournaments is out there but there needs to be additional data added. That additional data would be what engines were being used at that time, what were the requirements to reach a certain norm that would motivate the player to take more risks to win a game to reach a certain norm. What was the anti cheating method used at each venue? How was the progression of the player in ELO strength compared to other players that had the same meteoric rise in ELO. I think once you put all the data and compare player A with player B etc... some pattern will begin to show. Who knows, maybe we will find out there are other serial cheaters out there.

The real reason for Carlsen to withdraw, was that he knew after losing to GM Hans that either GM Firouzja or Caruana was not going to let him win the tournament, he should have left quietly and instead of accusing say that he was not in form https://en.chessbase.com/post/sinquefield-cup-2022-r9

[Cumnor]

Carlsen and Niemann to face off in Julius Baer Generation Cup https://en.chessbase.com/post/generatio ... 22-preview

[Chessqueen]

Carlsen and Niemann to face off in Julius Baer Generation Cup https://en.chessbase.com/post/generatio ... 22-preview

I believe Carlsen prefer to face him in ChessBoxing, I bet anything that Carlsen will Knock GM Hans in the first Round

[AndrewGrant]

I would also rule out prep as a major factor; in all tournaments one can prep, it's just a question of how much prep time you have, and in any case the value of prep is much less at 2500 USCF level (roughly 2400 FIDE level) than at 2800 FIDE level; players simply make too many mistakes after the opening for an opening edge to translate to a much higher probability of victory, and of course prep works both ways.

Interesting insight. I would think that knowing your opponent before hand would be of extremely valuable insight, but you suggest that has not been your experience. It seems like these extremely high rated players are basically databases of games. Able to recall games, the players, and the transpositions.

But I'll defer to you, in that this is less important than general strength when talking about the 2400 FIDE level as opposed to these super GM events.

[Chessqueen]

I would also rule out prep as a major factor; in all tournaments one can prep, it's just a question of how much prep time you have, and in any case the value of prep is much less at 2500 USCF level (roughly 2400 FIDE level) than at 2800 FIDE level; players simply make too many mistakes after the opening for an opening edge to translate to a much higher probability of victory, and of course prep works both ways.

Interesting insight. I would think that knowing your opponent before hand would be of extremely valuable insight, but you suggest that has not been your experience. It seems like these extremely high rated players are basically databases of games. Able to recall games, the players, and the transpositions.

But I'll defer to you, in that this is less important than general strength when talking about the 2400 FIDE level as opposed to these super GM events.

I am convinced that he did not cheated, what else do you expect from GM Hans, he beat the current World Champion and Drew against the Challenger of the Next World Chess Championship GM Ian Nepomniachtchi. We all have to realize that sometimes Super GM like Carlsen are not in good form, and lesser stronger players like GM Hans sometimes their brain recognize positions from previews Books or from other preview games played by other stronger GM, and the Brain automatically select the best move based on the pattern recognition, and the player playing those move when you ask them to explain it, like after the game with Firouzja can not come up with a good explanation, GM Hans could have said that his brain picked those moves automatically from previous pattern recognition

Note: Even us patzers sometimes make amazing moves that only Stockfish or super GM could have made, but if you ask us, we do NOT have the slightest idea why we made those moves, but our brain is too perfect and no super computer can match it.

[AndrewGrant]

I am convinced that he did not cheated, what else do you expect from GM Hans, he beat the current World Champion and Drew against the Challenger of the Next World Chess Championship GM Ian Nepomniachtchi. We all have to realize that sometimes Super GM like Carlsen are not in good form, and lesser stronger players like GM Hans sometimes their brain recognize positions from previews Books or from other preview games played by other stronger GM, and the Brain automatically select the best move based on the pattern recognition, and the player playing those move when you ask them to explain it, like after the game with Firouzja can not come up with a good explanation, GM Hans could have said that his brain picked those moves automatically from previous pattern recognition

Note: Even us patzers sometimes make amazing moves that only Stockfish or super GM could have made, but if you ask us, we do NOT have the slightest idea why we made those moves, but our brain is too perfect and no super computer can match it.

Sure, that is all fine. I totally will buy that GMs have bad days and make mistakes. Nepo made one just the other day, and another in his match against Carlsen for the title. I liked Qg3 because I'm a bad player....

But I don't think you can hand wave away all the accusations with that statement alone.

[lkaufman]

I think pretty much everyone now agrees that Hans was a prolific serial cheater online, and that he also cheated OTB in at least one tournament. This is enough evidence to require further investigation of ALL his previous online and OTB tournaments. The data of those tournaments is out there but there needs to be additional data added. That additional data would be what engines were being used at that time, what were the requirements to reach a certain norm that would motivate the player to take more risks to win a game to reach a certain norm. What was the anti cheating method used at each venue? How was the progression of the player in ELO strength compared to other players that had the same meteoric rise in ELO. I think once you put all the data and compare player A with player B etc... some pattern will begin to show. Who knows, maybe we will find out there are other serial cheaters out there.

Perhaps I missed something, which was the one OTB tournament with evidence of cheating by Niemann? I am aware of the statistical analysis that shows strong evidence of OTB cheating over a 2 year period, but I didn't read anything about any specific tournament. Until a couple days ago, I thought that the evidence of cheating was confined to online, but now that doesn't seem to be the case. But a specific event with evidence would confirm the statistical evidence reported in this thread. There have been many other players over the past decade who have been called out as cheaters OTB, with varying degrees of evidence, some overwhelming, some less so.

[lkaufman]

Stokfish on the subject! Enjoy.

So if GM Beat Neo, he is cheating again ?

If I may butt in...given his pawn structure, yes, maybe I would join the 'cheating chorus'

According to Stockfish it was a draw 5 moves before they agreed to draw

Well....most of that was the 'repetition'. Strange how Neop did not take the 'h' pawn...not sure what Fish would have said about that. Nepo simply said he blundered, thinking anything would win.

What else do you expect from GM Hans, he beat the current World Champion and Drew against the Challenger of the Next World Chess Championship GM Neo

The difference between his performance in the first three rounds (with no delay in broadcast), and the final six rounds (with delay), was very large. The win over Carlsen is the game in question, so that can't be considered as evidence of his strength, and the draw with Nepo was from a probably losing position where Nepo just failed to take a pawn that most patzers would have taken. This dropoff after round 3 is consistent with the huge difference in his performance in broadcast vs nonbroadcast events over a 2 year period reported in this thread. Until a couple days ago I thought that the cheating was confined to online, but now it doesn't look that way. Niemann is surely of grandmaster (FIDE 2500+) strength, but there is a huge difference between grandmaster strength and WC candidate (2800) strength, or even 2700 (FIDE) strength.

[CornfedForever]

I am convinced that he did not cheated, what else do you expect from GM Hans, he beat the current World Champion and Drew against the Challenger of the Next World Chess Championship GM Ian Nepomniachtchi. We all have to realize that sometimes Super GM like Carlsen are not in good form, and lesser stronger players like GM Hans sometimes their brain recognize positions from previews Books or from other preview games played by other stronger GM, and the Brain automatically select the best move based on the pattern recognition, and the player playing those move when you ask them to explain it, like after the game with Firouzja can not come up with a good explanation, GM Hans could have said that his brain picked those moves automatically from previous pattern recognition

Note: Even us patzers sometimes make amazing moves that only Stockfish or super GM could have made, but if you ask us, we do NOT have the slightest idea why we made those moves, but our brain is too perfect and no super computer can match it.

Sure, that is all fine. I totally will buy that GMs have bad days and make mistakes. Nepo made one just the other day, and another in his match against Carlsen for the title. I liked Qg3 because I'm a bad player....

But I don't think you can hand wave away all the accusations with that statement alone.

Sounds like a job for the mind of Willie Hendrix.

I also liked Qg3...very intuitive and GM Aagaard seems to think Hans is the most intuitive (and he seemed to mean this as a true compliment) than any other player he has dealt with. Its a move Tal would consider 'flooding the zone' (sorry, think that's the term in 'Attack With Tal'. It would be the first thing I looked at as it contains a clear threat which needs to be analyzed.

I know my comments are based on probabilities essentially - a human (albeit resigning World Champion) failed in a game against someone who openly mocks him...vs cheating and not being detected in this or (to our knowledge) all sorts of other OTB tourneys leading up to this tournament. No one KNOWS for sure if Hans cheated in this tourney...but anyone thinking so has yet to offer any sort of proof. To say "Yes he did" or "No he did not" is currently...a fools charge. Wanna call it 'hedging my bets'? Okay...I just think of it as a generally good way to live - principle of parsimony or Occam's razor.

The only think I see as odd is how he doesn't seem to concentrate at the board like the others....many times a move looking up at his opponent on his time...or off to the side. Can I put on my conspiracy theorist hat and 'wonder' aloud if anyone has perfected a contact lens with a display and been able to tie an engine to it so that it can read a position on the board and start calculating with the lines showing on the lens?

Oh God...don't let me be throwing more wood on certain peoples fire.

[CornfedForever]

This dropoff after round 3 is consistent with the huge difference in his performance in broadcast vs nonbroadcast events over a 2 year period reported in this thread. Until a couple days ago I thought that the cheating was confined to online, but now it doesn't look that way. Niemann is surely of grandmaster (FIDE 2500+) strength, but there is a huge difference between grandmaster strength and WC candidate (2800) strength, or even 2700 (FIDE) strength.

Is that not also maybe indicative of a player 'in over his head'...as it outclassed and simply falling back to Earth as the tourney wore on...and having to play consistently stronger players knowing each sitting across from him is wondering if he are cheating? That's some kind of pressure on Hans every game if you ask me...