Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[Peter Berger]

Your statistics look absolutely flawless to me, DrCliche. Actually I also happen to agree that your hypothesis is likely to be true.
But I think this thread lacks any serious attempt to try for alternative explanations, so I’ll try to provide one that very easily comes to mind to a chessplayer and is not plain silly IMHO.
I was thinking about my personal game statistics (at a much lower level) and how they might be perceived if checked carefully. I played some games on my own in tournaments, I played some others in team events. As I played for several years the amount of games is sufficient to draw some conclusions.
I outperformed myself heavily in team events compaired to single events, no doubt about that. As I am such a great team player? Nope – just as I am an attention whore. I played most of my team games (usually on board one) in a team where most players were much more talented than myself, and they cared about the result. So I’d get spectators who’d care for my results and cheer for me. I used to love that, and it was a major motivation to try my very best. In single tournaments I never felt the same and felt little urge to go an extra mile if challenged.
If you followed me to this point, we can come up with a lot of other potential correlations that might be pretty relevant in your case. Maybe Niemann just outperforms in events that matter a lot to him? Events that get a big audience e.g.? There certainly will be a high correlation between events being important and them being broadcasted live. This might even provide some kind of explanation why someone provides bad analysis in post-mortem. If someone performs above his general chess level, isn’t this even to be expected?

[lkaufman]

Your statistics look absolutely flawless to me, DrCliche. Actually I also happen to agree that your hypothesis is likely to be true.
But I think this thread lacks any serious attempt to try for alternative explanations, so I’ll try to provide one that very easily comes to mind to a chessplayer and is not plain silly IMHO.
I was thinking about my personal game statistics (at a much lower level) and how they might be perceived if checked carefully. I played some games on my own in tournaments, I played some others in team events. As I played for several years the amount of games is sufficient to draw some conclusions.
I outperformed myself heavily in team events compaired to single events, no doubt about that. As I am such a great team player? Nope – just as I am an attention whore. I played most of my team games (usually on board one) in a team where most players were much more talented than myself, and they cared about the result. So I’d get spectators who’d care for my results and cheer for me. I used to love that, and it was a major motivation to try my very best. In single tournaments I never felt the same and felt little urge to go an extra mile if challenged.
If you followed me to this point, we can come up with a lot of other potential correlations that might be pretty relevant in your case. Maybe Niemann just outperforms in events that matter a lot to him? Events that get a big audience e.g.? There certainly will be a high correlation between events being important and them being broadcasted live. This might even provide some kind of explanation why someone provides bad analysis in post-mortem. If someone performs above his general chess level, isn’t this even to be expected?

Maybe that could apply at amateur level, but at pro level every game is important, either for norms or for FIDE rating which is crucial for titles, invitations, etc. As someone who has played in many strong tournaments both broadcast and not, I can say that I've never paid the slightest attention to whether a particular game was broadcast or not, and I've always played the best I could at the time. I think this applies to most professional level players. You don't get to be an IM or GM by just playing well now and then. Differences in motivation and similar factors could account for a modest performance gap, maybe 30 or 40 elo, but not hundreds of elo.

[dkappe]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.” So far you only have an incomplete, Mr. Cliche. No Dr. title for you.

[towforce]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.”

I haven't looked at the evidence, but there obviously is a risk of "cherry picking" (link) the data. One has to be VERY careful to avoid biases when doing statistical work.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of deliberately falsifying data - but if somebody was (like a politician would) then they would take the data and try to divide it into two distinct groups, then try to find reasons why this good grouping supported the hypothesis.

[dkappe]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.”

I haven't looked at the evidence, but there obviously is a risk of "cherry picking" (link) the data. One has to be VERY careful to avoid biases when doing statistical work.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of deliberately falsifying data - but if somebody was (like a politician would) then they would take the data and try to divide it into two distinct groups, then try to find reasons why this good grouping supported the hypothesis.

I’m sure everyone is familiar with the classic mistake of confusing correlation and causality when it comes to school boy shoe size and IQ. All the small sample size issues aside, Mr. Cliche has lots of work to do to demonstrate causality.

[chrisw]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.”

I haven't looked at the evidence, but there obviously is a risk of "cherry picking" (link) the data. One has to be VERY careful to avoid biases when doing statistical work.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of deliberately falsifying data - but if somebody was (like a politician would) then they would take the data and try to divide it into two distinct groups, then try to find reasons why this good grouping supported the hypothesis.

I’m sure everyone is familiar with the classic mistake of confusing correlation and causality when it comes to school boy shoe size and IQ. All the small sample size issues aside, Mr. Cliche has lots of work to do to demonstrate causality.

Not just causality but it appears veracity also.
Shubham Kumthekar (look him up on Twitter) states that the key YES and NO column, on which Cliche and even Larry Kaufman depend for their accusations against Hans, are incorrectly labelled and the table looks very different if the labelling wasn’t false.

There’s also an allegation (which appears correct) that several tournaments during the period covered were omitted.

They’re lying to you you, people. A 19 year old chess genius is liable to be destroyed by it. Beware of self-appointed internet policemen. Beware of those jumping on the bandwagon of death by a thousand cuts.

Tweets below.

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
Replying to
@ATL_kings
I was the FollowChess Broadcast Operations Manager from 2017 to Jan 2022. I remember broadcasting many of the events, so I opened FollowChess and checked for the same. Foxwoods Open, World Open, Philadelphia Intl, North American Open - all of these events had live games.
9:44 pm · 11 Sep 2022
·Twitter for Android
1
Quote Tweet
6
Likes

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
Replying to
@SSK_Unplugged
and
@ATL_kings
Usually, the broadcast was done via DGT boards + Chesskast or either of the two (this is open knowledge, no insider secrets here). From what I remember, some of these events might have had a delay.
2
4

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
The table looks quite different once you account for the live games from these events as well. Another question is: Did the events mentioned as having live games in the table have any delay in place? I guess Charlotte would have for sure

[supersharp77]

Chess Legend Alexi Shirov Weighs in on This "Situation" "ChessDom"...

https://www.chessdom.com/alexei-shirov- ... uspicious/

"Just today, new allegations on Niemann – Carlsen case that Hans Niemann performs much better with live DGT boards emerged, while GM Nigel Davies has another take on the story, asking the FIDE Ethics Commission to act."

“The legendary grandmaster Alexei Shirov today gave his insight about the whole controversy saying that Niemann’s case gets worse and worse: “After learning more facts, Niemann’s case gets worse and worse. As a peacemaker I just hope that Hans truly regrets his mistakes in the past as he himself stated in the press conference a few days ago. Unfortunately his last GM norm (also made in 2020) seems one of those mistakes, at least it looks suspicious”, posted Shirov on his Facebook account.”

"“To me it seems that some young players had no moral values in 2020. The fact is that pandemia slowed down people’s plans and ambitions and it was definitely more harmful for young generation rather than those who had their life before and could afford to look at things in more philosophical way. Very many chessplayers seemed to have done wrong things in the sport in 2020 (also counting Sutovsky who took the position to cover wrong cases) but still it’s the amount of irregularities in young players’ games that makes me feel especially strange. I will not call the names but in order my post not to look controversial I will say that I am operating with official info. Yes, I know that all those bans on chesscom and lichess are questionable, I myself defended some players. And in every concrete case there will be those who will defend strong and known players. I am not the final judge. But I stay with my opinion that unfortunately there is a lot of dishonesty in my sport. And 2020 showed it a little clearer than other years. Quo Vadis FIDE?” concluded Shirov."

"Chessdom is dedicated to professional and independent coverage of chess news and events from all over the globe! Join us for live chess games, interviews, video and photo reports, and social media reactions. Follow the development of the strongest chess software, which affects all chess today, via the Top Chess Engine Championship with its 24/7 live broadcast with chat."

[lkaufman]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.”

I haven't looked at the evidence, but there obviously is a risk of "cherry picking" (link) the data. One has to be VERY careful to avoid biases when doing statistical work.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of deliberately falsifying data - but if somebody was (like a politician would) then they would take the data and try to divide it into two distinct groups, then try to find reasons why this good grouping supported the hypothesis.

I’m sure everyone is familiar with the classic mistake of confusing correlation and causality when it comes to school boy shoe size and IQ. All the small sample size issues aside, Mr. Cliche has lots of work to do to demonstrate causality.

Not just causality but it appears veracity also.
Shubham Kumthekar (look him up on Twitter) states that the key YES and NO column, on which Cliche and even Larry Kaufman depend for their accusations against Hans, are incorrectly labelled and the table looks very different if the labelling wasn’t false.

There’s also an allegation (which appears correct) that several tournaments during the period covered were omitted.

They’re lying to you you, people. A 19 year old chess genius is liable to be destroyed by it. Beware of self-appointed internet policemen. Beware of those jumping on the bandwagon of death by a thousand cuts.

Tweets below.

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
Replying to
@ATL_kings
I was the FollowChess Broadcast Operations Manager from 2017 to Jan 2022. I remember broadcasting many of the events, so I opened FollowChess and checked for the same. Foxwoods Open, World Open, Philadelphia Intl, North American Open - all of these events had live games.
9:44 pm · 11 Sep 2022
·Twitter for Android
1
Quote Tweet
6
Likes

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
Replying to
@SSK_Unplugged
and
@ATL_kings
Usually, the broadcast was done via DGT boards + Chesskast or either of the two (this is open knowledge, no insider secrets here). From what I remember, some of these events might have had a delay.
2
4

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
The table looks quite different once you account for the live games from these events as well. Another question is: Did the events mentioned as having live games in the table have any delay in place? I guess Charlotte would have for sure

If several tournaments were put in the wrong category by Mr./Dr. Cliche as to their broadcast status, then this is no longer significant evidence against Neimann. I doubt that it was deliberate on his part, I wouldn't call it "lying". That's just as bad as a wrong accusation of cheating. As for the issue under discussion, I would say it is now up to Neimann to dispute the claim by chess.com that he had been found to have cheated online more often and/or more recently than what he admitted to. If he can convince the chess world that chess.com is wrong, then his claims regarding the over the board tournaments should be believed. If chess.com is right, then nothing he says regarding cheating should be believed. The ball is in his court now. Without the Dr. Cliche evidence, count me as "undecided".

[Chessqueen]

The data is a contiguous block of classical tournaments in which Niemann played >0 games against opposition rated >2000 USCF on average.

OK, let’s do the same for a pool of players of about the same age who play about as frequently as Hans Niemann. I’m willing to bet we’ll see more “damning evidence.”

I haven't looked at the evidence, but there obviously is a risk of "cherry picking" (link) the data. One has to be VERY careful to avoid biases when doing statistical work.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of deliberately falsifying data - but if somebody was (like a politician would) then they would take the data and try to divide it into two distinct groups, then try to find reasons why this good grouping supported the hypothesis.

I’m sure everyone is familiar with the classic mistake of confusing correlation and causality when it comes to school boy shoe size and IQ. All the small sample size issues aside, Mr. Cliche has lots of work to do to demonstrate causality.

Not just causality but it appears veracity also.
Shubham Kumthekar (look him up on Twitter) states that the key YES and NO column, on which Cliche and even Larry Kaufman depend for their accusations against Hans, are incorrectly labelled and the table looks very different if the labelling wasn’t false.

There’s also an allegation (which appears correct) that several tournaments during the period covered were omitted.

They’re lying to you you, people. A 19 year old chess genius is liable to be destroyed by it. Beware of self-appointed internet policemen. Beware of those jumping on the bandwagon of death by a thousand cuts.

Tweets below.

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
Replying to
@ATL_kings
I was the FollowChess Broadcast Operations Manager from 2017 to Jan 2022. I remember broadcasting many of the events, so I opened FollowChess and checked for the same. Foxwoods Open, World Open, Philadelphia Intl, North American Open - all of these events had live games.
9:44 pm · 11 Sep 2022
·Twitter for Android
1
Quote Tweet
6
Likes

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
Replying to
@SSK_Unplugged
and
@ATL_kings
Usually, the broadcast was done via DGT boards + Chesskast or either of the two (this is open knowledge, no insider secrets here). From what I remember, some of these events might have had a delay.
2
4

Shubham Kumthekar
@SSK_Unplugged
·
11 Sep
The table looks quite different once you account for the live games from these events as well. Another question is: Did the events mentioned as having live games in the table have any delay in place? I guess Charlotte would have for sure

If several tournaments were put in the wrong category by Mr./Dr. Cliche as to their broadcast status, then this is no longer significant evidence against Neimann. I doubt that it was deliberate on his part, I wouldn't call it "lying". That's just as bad as a wrong accusation of cheating. As for the issue under discussion, I would say it is now up to Neimann to dispute the claim by chess.com that he had been found to have cheated online more often and/or more recently than what he admitted to. If he can convince the chess world that chess.com is wrong, then his claims regarding the over the board tournaments should be believed. If chess.com is right, then nothing he says regarding cheating should be believed. The ball is in his court now. Without the Dr. Cliche evidence, count me as "undecided".

Next time it will be Super young start GM Pragg who will piss Carlsen Off by beating him four times in a row

https://en.chessbase.com/post/generatio ... 22-preview

[CornfedForever]

... As for the issue under discussion, I would say it is now up to Neimann to dispute the claim by chess.com that he had been found to have cheated online more often and/or more recently than what he admitted to. If he can convince the chess world that chess.com is wrong, then his claims regarding the over the board tournaments should be believed. If chess.com is right, then nothing he says regarding cheating should be believed. The ball is in his court now. Without the Dr. Cliche evidence, count me as "undecided".

I...still just have to think this is conflating things a bit too much. Online chess.com cheating is one thing - even being an online serial cheater; and chess.com is right to ban him for life at this point, IMHO. Any other site should be wise to follow suit, given his (at least partial) admissions.

But OTB...No, this ball still remains in Magnus' or any "prosecutors "court. You simply can't put the onus upon someone to prove they are not doing something. That...is just wrong.

That said, any OTB tournament (closed at least) which is willing to invite Niemann should, of course, be willing to undertake all due security diligence and a delay in any broadcast only makes sense - frankly regardless of whomever is playing.