Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[IanKennedy]

Ken Regan podcast on the subject (he comes on about 3min in). Niemann case starts at 29.55

https://jas.simplecast.com/episodes/did ... -ken-regan

SEPTEMBER 14TH, 2022 | 01:34:48 | E1058

EPISODE SUMMARY

The Hans Niemann cheating scandal has rocked the chess world following his stunning defeat of Magnus Carlsen and Niemann's subsequent ban from Chess.com tournaments. IM Ken Regan, Ph.D. - the preeminent expert on identifying cheating in the chess world - joins James to unravel the situation and lay out the evidence.

[Peter Berger]

Differences in motivation and similar factors could account for a modest performance gap, maybe 30 or 40 elo, but not hundreds of elo.

I admit that my statistics is definitely a bit rusty. But I think this argument can't be valid. This should be about assumptions of distribution of data and testing, and I feel that 30 or 40 elo would already really be a lot. Swami gave another one that even meets your personal experiences - could this be another 40-50 elo? You actually gave another one yourself, when you described the reasons ( and in this case casuality makes some sense as you should know) for your own performance at senior events compaired to your peers. I envision ever more strange curves of potential distributions. If there are reasonable alternative explanations for the perceived strangeness of the data, the strangeness just disappears, doesn't it?

[Uri]

Magnus Carlsen is probably way superior to me genetically. Magnus is also way richer than me while I'm just an ugly and poor total loser.

Hell, if I wasn't so ugly and acutally looked like Magnus Carlsen, Justin Bieber or maybe even Ian Somerhalder I'd probably be getting the attention of thr girls by now.

[towforce]

Magnus Carlsen is probably way superior to me genetically. Magnus is also way richer than me while I'm just an ugly and poor total loser.

Hell, if I wasn't so ugly and acutally looked like Magnus Carlsen, Justin Bieber or maybe even Ian Somerhalder I'd probably be getting the attention of thr girls by now.

Not sure why I'm responding to this, but here's a tip: enrol in your local gym and put yourself on a hypertrophy (muscle building) programme. You'll also need to eat 150g of protein per day. You won't like it at first, but you'll get to like it after about 3 months.

As your muscles grow, and you start to feel like a confident man, you will be AMAZED (literally) at the difference in response you get from the girls you meet. You probably don't believe me right now - but what have you got to lose by trying it?

[Jesse Gersenson]

(I didn't read the entire thread closely...)
Has anyone mentioned General Atlantic / chess.com bought the Play Magnus Group for $82m, reported by The Guardian Sept 2nd, then a few days later Magnus withdrew from the St.Louis event?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ ... world-mark

[Graham Banks]

Magnus Carlsen is probably way superior to me genetically. Magnus is also way richer than me while I'm just an ugly and poor total loser.

Hell, if I wasn't so ugly and acutally looked like Magnus Carlsen, Justin Bieber or maybe even Ian Somerhalder I'd probably be getting the attention of thr girls by now.

I don't think that Carlsen is handsome.

[AndrewGrant]

So..... foremost expert (?) on cheating is of the belief that Niemann has not cheated OTB or in any serious online events.
So..... a list of OTB events floats around that suggests Niemann far exceeds normal play when games are broadcast.
So..... Chesscom is of the belief that Niemann's online cheating exceeds a few one-off events in non-serious conditions.
So..... Magnus refuses to speak at all on the issue and defend or explain his position
So..... Saint Lewis Chess Club says there was no cheating, and that Niemann is already scheduled for their fall event.

What do you believe? The call to authority? The collective hivemind? Chesscom's insider knowledge? The reigning world champion? The organizers of the event that the accusation occurred in?

I don't like any of it. My stance at this point is that Niemann cannot be shown to have cheated over the board. The claim is derived from my belief that Niemann did not cheat at the STL event. And therefore, is capable of playing against these super GMs.

Time changes everything, however.

[swami]

Actually the whole discussion here and elsewhere on the internet is more and more strong evidence for putting a higher, independent authority (an expert panel) in place, which develops «state of the art» rules and regulations for investigating, detecting and treating cheating cases on- and offline.

Ciao

acepoint

These are facts

Hans Niemann 2019-2020 Tournament Results:

USCF performance rating with NO LIVE GAMES:2404

USCF performance rating with LIVE GAMES:2610

USCF Rating Change with NO LIVE GAMES: -112

USCF Rating Change with LIVE GAMES: +131

Why not dwelve deeper to include other important factors such as

Average rating of the tournament
Average opponent elo
Rating performance vs Average opponent elo
Age of the opponents - more bonus for youngsters

In 2019-20
Peer rating of NO LIVE BROADCAST is 2281
Peer strength is low, risk of loss is more

Peer strength of LIVE BROADCAST is 2433
Peer strength is high, opportunity to gain elo is higher

Ideally you shouldn't play in tournaments that has more weaker players than you, but he didn't care and had actively played in every event absolutely mindless of rating changes, maybe he was concerned with improvement and experience.

[swami]

If a 2500 rated Human player plays in an event full of 2250 rated, he is tend to lose more elo on average unless he wins all the time and makes minimum draws.

That's difficult to do, because real strength of 2250 rated, especially, when they are young is unknown. They are in growth mode. Even those who aren't young, also have more opportunities to surprise with a draw or win.

Besides, 2500 player is human and have all human tendencies to make 1.Blunder any time 2. Careless moves under time pressure 3.Inability to convert advantage to a win and had to settle for a draw.

Engines are different. 2500 rated engine can outperform 2250 most of the time. Unless there is an "update" to 2250 engine's version..!

That's the reason top players never played in weaker events. That's not the case here. He seems to have played in every event regardless of strength of the event.

[Chessqueen]

If a 2500 rated Human player plays in an event full of 2250 rated, he is tend to lose more elo on average unless he wins all the time and makes minimum draws.

That's difficult to do, because real strength of 2250 rated, especially, when they are young is unknown. They are in growth mode. Even those who aren't young, also have more opportunities to surprise with a draw or win.

Besides, 2500 player is human and have all human tendencies to make 1.Blunder any time 2. Careless moves under time pressure 3.inability to convert advantage to a win and had to settle for a draw.

Engines are different. 2500 rated engine can outperform 2250 most of the time. Unless there is an "update" to 2250 engine's version..!

That's the reason top players never played in weaker events. That's not the case here. He seems to have played in every event regardless of strength of the event.

What type of Shoes is Firouzja wearing ?