Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[Chessqueen]

Yes of course Magnus could just say that he asked the tournament arbiters to require additional measures which they refused to do ... so he decided he would not participate. However you spin it for sure MC thought something was up and "fair play" was not being enforced. Remember that MC hasn't done anything like that before and he has lost against even younger new comers (even online where it is easier to cheat) and never once accused anyone of cheating. This time something must have happened which made him think things were not kosher.

MC has played online some bltiz games against Vidit on Chess.com a couple of days ago. I think he was farming Vidit to get the number one spot from Hikaru ... which he apparently was successful at.

Now this 2100+ player versus Carlen is really cheating, no question about THAT!==>

[CornfedForever]

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament...

One of those 'online tournaments', where they gather from the 4 corners of the world into one room...to play as if they were thousands of miles away?

[lkaufman]

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament...

One of those 'online tournaments', where they gather from the 4 corners of the world into one room...to play as if they were thousands of miles away?

I think it is a normal online event, not in one place, but I haven't read details.

[Chessqueen]

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament...

One of those 'online tournaments', where they gather from the 4 corners of the world into one room...to play as if they were thousands of miles away?

I think it is a normal online event, not in one place, but I haven't read details.

What about this games against Carlsen, how did GM Hans did it ?

[Chessqueen]

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament...

One of those 'online tournaments', where they gather from the 4 corners of the world into one room...to play as if they were thousands of miles away?

I think it is a normal online event, not in one place, but I haven't read details.

What about this games against Carlsen, how did GM Hans did it ?

Sometimes I wonder if Kasparov with an old chess rating that does NOT reflect his actual weak rating can beat GM Hans in a match of 10 games
https://en.chessbase.com/post/chess-9lx-2022-live

[CornfedForever]

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament...

One of those 'online tournaments', where they gather from the 4 corners of the world into one room...to play as if they were thousands of miles away?

I think it is a normal online event, not in one place, but I haven't read details.

What about this games against Carlsen, how did GM Hans did it ?

Sometimes I wonder if Kasparov with an old chess rating that does NOT reflect his actual weak rating can beat GM Hans in a match of 10 games
https://en.chessbase.com/post/chess-9lx-2022-live

Sometimes I wonder...just what goes on in your brain. Sometimes.

[chrisw]

Apparently, there will be a chess tournament very soon where both MC and Hans will be playing. Should draw record viewings

What tourney is that?
Why would Magnus play against Hans if he believes...what he seems to believe?

How would anyone know what Magnus believes? He made one tweet with a Mourinho (sp?) quote which could mean almost anything. Magnus has said nothing since. As far as I know he disappeared off the radar. All anyone knows is Magnus played Hans and lost, then withdrew. That’s it. Everything else, including the meaning, if there was any, is supposition and speculation, and just because the entire internet jumped all over it with one theorised explanation only, says nothing for the theorised explanation. The whole internet, like any mob, has more than often got everything wrong in the past and perfectly possibly has it entirely wrong now too.

Well, we will probably find out soon, since this is an online tournament where cheating is much easier than OTB, so I can't see how it will actually happen that both Magnus and Hans will play. Either Hans will be barred based on past online cheating, or Magnus will refuse to play for that reason, I would expect, unless some very radical anti-cheating measures are adopted that are hard to imagine. If both of them play without extreme measures, then surely Magnus would have to offer an alternative explanation for his earlier withdrawal.

That it’s about cheating is entirely speculative, based, as ever, on “because everybody says so”.
There’s no rule anywhere, btw, that says withdrawal has to be accompanied by an “explanation”. Magnus hasn’t offered any explanation in the first place, so the concept of his “offering an alternative explanation” is already illogical nonsense. That you and the rest of the internet have only one thought in your collective heads means nothing. Magnus is not required to refute the collective fantasising of an internet mob.

If both Magnus and Hans play in this event with no comments by Magnus or unusual precautions by the organizers then that would confirm your idea.

I believe there’s a term for the logical fallacy introduced there. I have NOT proposed any “idea”, I’m challenging the idea proposed generally by the internet mob and taken up by you, namely that Magnus withdrawal motivation has only one explanation.

This would surprise me very much. I don't know whether Magnus has any legal or contractual obligation to explain his withdrawal, but any normal person would state that he didn't mean to imply cheating by his opponent if almost everyone thought that he did. Magnus may not be "normal" in his abilities, but I don't think of him as psychologically abnormal like Fischer for example. If you don't deny something that is almost universally believed to be true about you, then either it is true or else you want people to believe that it is true (or else you just don't care about public opinion of you, not credible regarding Carlsen). I don't see a big difference between "Carlsen believes Niemann cheated" and "Carlsen wants everyone to believe that he believes Neimann cheated".

Are you a mind reader? I don’t think so.

The above paragraph comes under the category - manipulative triangulation. A third party is introduced/invented, Mr Normal, self-defined so as to be in agreement with you. We don’t need to waste our time on that kind of argumentation.

All that remains is Magnus lost a game to Hans. Magnus withdrew. Magnus makes a tweet. Followed by silence. An internet mob gives Hans the death by a thousand cuts treatment. Hans generates a spirited defence showing his humanness. graphic data gets published, plus conclusion, which promptly falls apart. Evidence there is none. Evidence that Magnus accused Hans? There is none. Evidence that Magnus even mentioned Hans name? There is none. Is all supposition, internet fantasising.
Some people however still like making posts with “Hans” and “cheating” in literal proximity. Some people even can’t wait to check the data and pronounce Hans “guilty”. When these people go quack quack at the same time, we can perhaps ignore them, but Larry Kaufman? What’s his angle? Are there connections we should know about here?

What else do we know? Chess.com evidently bought “Magnus Chess” for 80 million USD, if I remember it correct. Pretty much amounts to buying Magnus one might imagine. Quite the powerful online monopoly chess.com are building here.
Chess.com were very quick to kick Hans when he was down. Public banning statement. Strange connection?
What do you know about this, Larry?

[dkappe]

Chess.com were very quick to kick Hans when he was down. Public banning statement. Strange connection?
What do you know about this, Larry?

Classic chrisw conspiracy theory. I may agree with you on the merits of the case, but you’re a bit much to take.

[Modern Times]

All that remains is Magnus lost a game to Hans. Magnus withdrew. Magnus makes a tweet. Followed by silence. An internet mob gives Hans the death by a thousand cuts treatment. Hans generates a spirited defence showing his humanness. graphic data gets published, plus conclusion, which promptly falls apart. Evidence there is none. Evidence that Magnus accused Hans? There is none. Evidence that Magnus even mentioned Hans name? There is none. Is all supposition, internet fantasising.
Some people however still like making posts with “Hans” and “cheating” in literal proximity. Some people even can’t wait to check the data and pronounce Hans “guilty”. When these people go quack quack at the same time, we can perhaps ignore them, but Larry Kaufman? What’s his angle? Are there connections we should know about here?

Well this isn't the first time the chess community has launched a witch-hunt, and probably won't be the last.

[supersharp77]

GM Uses PGN SPY anti cheating program to analyze Hans Niemann's Chess Games.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG9XeSPflrU

https://github.com/MGleason1/PGN-Spy

"This software is intended as a tool to help detect cheating in chess by providing
information on engine correlation and other statistics. Information obtained using
this software should not be taken as evidence of engine use without proper statistical
analysis involving comparison to appropriate benchmarks and consideration of any other
relevant evidence.

Source code can be found at http://github.com/MGleason1/PGN-Spy

Before using this software to analyse the games of suspected cheaters, it is recommended
that you first analyse a large number of games from elite grandmasters. This will give
you appropriate baselines for comparison. It is important that your analysis of suspected
cheaters is done with the same settings as those for your baselines, or the results
cannot be compared meaningfully.

Sources of pgn files for elite tournaments and players include the following:
http://www.pgnmentor.com/files.html#events - numerous elite tournaments, including some
historical ones. Appears to be exclusively those with slow time controls.
http://www.pgnmentor.com/files.html#players - samples from various elite players,
including some historical ones.
http://www.serverchess.com/worldch.htm - correspondence chess world championship
tournaments; those from the late pre-computer era are perhaps more useful than the
more recent events, in part due to the possibility of engine use in more recent events.
http://theweekinchess.com/chessnews/events - downloads from all major recent tournaments,
including some at faster time controls.
http://theweekinchess.com/twic - massive weekly downloads of many tournaments and games.

This software will scan a collection of games in pgn format, and calculate various statistics.

ANALYSIS SETTINGS

Input File - select the collection of games you want to analyse. They should be in pgn format.

Player to investigate - enter the name of the player whose moves you want to analyse. Ensure
the name is spelled the same way as in the pgn file. If you leave this blank, all moves from
all players will be analysed; this is useful for establishing baselines from elite tournaments.

Book depth - the number of opening moves to exclude from analysis. Strong players will often have a
large number of moves memorised in certain openings. Additionally, in correspondence chess, the
use of static resources such as books and databases is usually permitted, and so a weaker player may
well make strong moves in the opening, without using an engine. Thus, opening moves are best excluded
from analysis to reduce false positives. Note: this value is entered in moves, not in plies. Thus, a
value of 10 means ten moves for both sides, not five moves each.

Variations - the number of variations to report for T1/T2/T3/etc. analysis.

Threads - the number of games to be analysing simultaneously. On computers with multiple cores,
analysing multiple games simultaneously will enable a large database to be scanned more quickly.
Note: chess engines do not do as well relying on hyper-threading, so it is not recommended to set
this to a larger value than the number of actual physical cores on your machine. You may also consider
reducing this number by one or two if you intend to use your computer for other purposes while
the analysis is running.
Also note: the engine will be run in single-threaded mode to aid consistency of results.

Hash size - the size of the engine's hash table. See documentation for your engine for the optimal
value for this setting. If the Threads setting is set to more than one, remember that each
instance of the engine will have its own hash table; for best results, this value should be set
such that the total size does not exceed the physical memory available on your machine. You
should also leave sufficient for the operating system and any other software currently running.

Min/Max time per move/Min search depth - these settings specify how long the engine should spend
analysing each position. It will analyse each position for at least the minimum time. Then it will
continue analysis until it reaches either the minimum search depth or the maximum search time.
Note that the search depth should be entered in plies: one ply is one move for one player; two plies
is one move for each side.

Engine - select a UCI-compatible engine. Most strong engines are UCI-compatible. Stockfish is a
very strong UCI-compatible engine that is available for free: http://stockfishchess.org/download/

POST-ANALYSIS FILTER SETTINGS

Note: all thresholds should be entered in centipawns - 1/100th of a pawn. Thus, 50 centipawns
is 1/2 of a pawn.

Exclude Forced Moves/Forced Move Threshold - This option is intended to minimize false positives
in highly tactical samples by eliminating positions with only one reasonable move from T1/T2/T3/etc.
statistics. If this is enabled, if the second best move is worse than the best move by the specified
threshold, the position will be excluded from T1 results. If the third-best move is worse than the
best move by the specified threshold, the position will be exclude from T2 results; the logic is
similar for T3/T4/T5, etc.

Include only unclear positions/Unclear position threshold - this option is also intended to minimize
false positives in highly tactical samples. If the second best move is worse than the best move by
the specified threshold, the position will be excluded from T1 results. If the third best move is
worse than the best move by the specified threshold, the position will be excluded from T2 results.
This is similar to the forced move setting; however, the force moved setting compares each move to
the next-best option (i.e. comparing the 2nd move to the 3rd move, comparing the 3rd move to the 4th
move); the unclear position setting compares each move to the best option.

Undecided position threshold - positions that are evaluated such that neither side has an advantage
greater than the specified threshold are reported in the results for undecided positions. Positions
where one side or the other has a large advantage are excluded.

Losing position threshold - positions that are evaluated such that the player in question is losing by
more than the undecided position threshold but less than the losing position threshold are reported in
the results for losing positions. All other positions are excluded.

RESULTS

Undecided positions - positions where neither side is winning by more than the "Undecided positions threshold"
setting are included in this category. A player who cheats until he gets ahead may have suspicious
results in this category.

Losing positions - positions where the player in question is losing by more than the undecided positions
threshold but less than the losing positions threshold are included in this category. A player who
cheats to try to save a lost position may have suspicious results in this category.

Winning positions - positions where the player in question is ahead by more than the undecided positions threshold
but less than the losing positions threshold are included in this category.

Post-losing positions - all positions where neither side is ahead by more than the losing positions threshold
and where the player in question has at an earlier point in the game been behind by more than the undecided
positions threshold are included in this category.

Positions - the number of positions included in this category.

T1/T2/T3/etc. - The number of positions where the player made the top 1, 2, 3, etc. engine move.
Note that the number of positions here is less than the total positions; this is due to the
"Exclude forced moves" and "Include only unclear positions" settings. This is also why the
number of positions for T1 is not the same as for T2, and neither is the same as T3.

>0 CP Loss - the number of positions where the move the player made was worse than the top
engine move by more than the specified value (in centipawns).

Avg centipawn loss - the average difference between the evaluation of the best move and
the move that was actually played. Note that a move that concedes a forced mate will be
evaluated as -1000 - equivalent to being down 10 pawns with no compensation.

Confidence intervals for T1/T2/T3/etc. and blunder frequencies can be calculated
at http://statpages.info/confint.html."


ps: Chess Cheating Seems to Have become much easier with not only small or miniaturized electronic devices &/or transmitters for OTB (Computers & Smartphones for OTB & Online) but also while looking at a chess problem diagram in my twitter feed people on twitter were "fact checking" the solution to the chess problem using software (apps or apks) that take pictures of or can load chess positions or diagrams from books or photos & have built in chess engines for instant analysis of chess positions or openings or endings using Engines like Stockfish 10 or Bagatur Chess... You literally can take a demonstration board photo and in a few moments the program digests the info and starts analyzing!!!! Placed in the wrong hands (Cheats..Cheaters) this could be quite dangerous knowledge...indeed!!

1. ChessVision AI .....
2. Chess Position Scanner...