Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[lkaufman]

I would say that a single standard deviation after 14 games is worth more than ± 40 Elo. Taking the formula of the sample standard deviation from the trinomial distribution:

Indeed, coming from Larry, such a strange SD estimate seems awfully wrong...
Maybe he could explain !

Sorry about that, I meant to check it for 14 games, but I got distracted and somehow ended up estimating it for 50 games. Just like when playing chess, I make more "blunders" now that I'm about to turn 75 than I did in my younger days!

[Alexander Schmidt]

Are you insinuating that GM Hans only cheat when he wins, but not when he lose, it could also be that other players are using a better engine than Niemann when he lose ?

You should change your name to Don Quijote. You fight against windmills. No one here claims anyone is cheating in the US Championships.

Sorry about that, I meant to check it for 14 games, but I got distracted and somehow ended up estimating it for 50 games. Just like when playing chess, I make more "blunders" now that I'm about to turn 75 than I did in my younger days!

Thanks for clarifying, much appreciated.

[M ANSARI]

Carlsen looks like he has COVID or a really bad cold or flu. His play has been way below par and he was completely lost against Keymar and no way should he have won against Vidit. The game against Keymar was especially interesting as it really shows how weak humans are tactically in complicated positions. Compared to engines I would say that even the top humans in complicated positions ... probably calculate only as good as a 2300 to 2400 ELO engine if they are not given huge amount of time. Another game that shows that is Gukesh loss against Abussatarov ... what a complicated position that was also right out of the opening.

[chrisw]

Hans won today.

Are you insinuating that GM Hans only cheat when he wins, but not when he lose, it could also be that other players are using a better engine than Niemann when he lose ?

[pgn][Event "USA Championship 2022"]
[Site "Saint Louis"]
[Date "2022.10.15"]
[Round "10.4"]
[White "Moradiabadi, Elshan"]
[Black "Niemann, Hans Moke"]
[Result "0-1"]
[BlackElo "2699"]
[ECO "E61"]
[Opening "King's Indian"]
[Variation "Smyslov System, 5...c5"]
[WhiteElo "2534"]
[TimeControl "480+3"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "76"]
[WhiteType "human"]
[BlackType "human"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 g6 3. c4 Bg7 4. Nc3 O-O 5. Bg5 c5 6. d5 d6 7. e3 Nbd7
{E61: King's Indian: Early deviations for White, including Smyslov System.}
8. Be2 h6 9. Bh4 g5 {The position is equal.} 10. Bg3 Nh5 11. Qc2 {Strongly
threatening Nxg5!} Ndf6 12. Nd2 a6 13. a4 Bd7 {[#]} 14. a5 {$0 $146}
{Predecessor:} (14. O-O Ng4 15. Nde4 Bf5 16. Nf6+ Ngxf6 17. Qxf5 Qc8 18.
Qd3 Nxg3 19. hxg3 Ng4 20. Qe4 {1-0 (51) Agrest,E (2591)-Bologan,V (2663)
Istanbul 2003}) 14. .. Rb8 15. O-O Nxg3 16. hxg3 Ng4 17. Qd1 f5 18. e4 Ne5
19. exf5 Bxf5 20. Nf3 Qe8 21. Nxe5 Bxe5 22. Bh5 {Against Qg6} Bg6 23. Bxg6
Qxg6 24. Qe2 Rf7 25. Ne4 {And now Nxc5! would win.} Bd4 26. Ra3 g4 $1 27.
Rd3 (27. Rb3 {$0 $11}) 27. .. Rf5 (27. .. b6 {$0 $17} 28. axb6 Rxb6) 28.
Qd2 {$0 $11} Rbf8 29. b4 $1 Re5 30. bxc5 dxc5 31. Rxd4 cxd4 32. Nc5 {Black
must now prevent Nd7.} Ref5 (32. .. Qf5 {$1 $11}) 33. Qxd4 {$0 $16} h5
{[#]} 34. Ne6 {Weaker is} (34. Nxb7 34. .. h4 35. Qe3 (35. gxh4 $2 g3 {$0
$19}) 35. .. Qh5 {$0 $15}) ({Better is} 34. Qe4 {$1 $16}) 34. .. R8f6 (34.
.. R8f7 {$0 $11}) 35. Nf4 (35. Qb6 {$0 $16}) 35. .. Qh7 {$1 $14} 36. Qa7 h4
37. Qxb7 (37. Re1 {$0 $11}) 37. .. hxg3 {$0 $15 [#] . The board is on
fire.} 38. fxg3 $4 (38. Qc8+ {$1 $15} Kf7 39. fxg3) 38. .. e5 {$1
Discovered Attack. Weighted Error Value: (very precise)} 0-1[/pgn]

This was a very simple but understandable one-move blunder by Elshan. It is due to the special feature of en-passant, that it is only good on the next move. Since White can take en-passant, he dismissed 38...e5 as bad, but unfortunately he can't play the check on c8 after 38...e5 and then take en-passant, he has to check first. I don't recall ever seeing a blunder based on this point before. So just a normal game by Hans with a lucky twist at the end. There is not the slightest indication that any player is cheating in this event, and it would be extremely unlikely with the precautions taken. Let's look on this as a fair test for all 14 players.

It can’t be a fair test since one player is under unprecedented psychological and emotional stress.

[Chessqueen]

Carlsen looks like he has COVID or a really bad cold or flu. His play has been way below par and he was completely lost against Keymar and no way should he have won against Vidit. The game against Keymar was especially interesting as it really shows how weak humans are tactically in complicated positions. Compared to engines I would say that even the top humans in complicated positions ... probably calculate only as good as a 2300 to 2400 ELO engine if they are not given huge amount of time. Another game that shows that is Gukesh loss against Abussatarov ... what a complicated position that was also right out of the opening.

Sure, Most people here like you believe that Carlsen can only lose if he is NOT feeling okay or maybe he has covi-19 or a really bad flu. But you are not giving this Young 19 years old GM Arjun any credit who was only rated around 2559 before covi-19 started and now is placed 21st among the best chess players on Planet Earth. In March 2020, just before the start of the pandemic, Arjun Erigaisi had a 2559 Elo rating. Two and a half years later, he finds himself as the 21st highest-rated player in the world with 2728 rating points to his name. I predicted this 4 days ago GM Arjun beating Carlsen, 2 to 3 years from NOW India will have a World Chess Champion, like I stated before most chess players in the World are studying Magnus Carlsen games carefully with top engines and trying to improve with new lines and variations suggested by top engines[/size] ==>
https://en.chessbase.com/post/aimchess-rapid-2022-d2

[lkaufman]

Hans won today.

Are you insinuating that GM Hans only cheat when he wins, but not when he lose, it could also be that other players are using a better engine than Niemann when he lose ?

[pgn][Event "USA Championship 2022"]
[Site "Saint Louis"]
[Date "2022.10.15"]
[Round "10.4"]
[White "Moradiabadi, Elshan"]
[Black "Niemann, Hans Moke"]
[Result "0-1"]
[BlackElo "2699"]
[ECO "E61"]
[Opening "King's Indian"]
[Variation "Smyslov System, 5...c5"]
[WhiteElo "2534"]
[TimeControl "480+3"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "76"]
[WhiteType "human"]
[BlackType "human"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 g6 3. c4 Bg7 4. Nc3 O-O 5. Bg5 c5 6. d5 d6 7. e3 Nbd7
{E61: King's Indian: Early deviations for White, including Smyslov System.}
8. Be2 h6 9. Bh4 g5 {The position is equal.} 10. Bg3 Nh5 11. Qc2 {Strongly
threatening Nxg5!} Ndf6 12. Nd2 a6 13. a4 Bd7 {[#]} 14. a5 {$0 $146}
{Predecessor:} (14. O-O Ng4 15. Nde4 Bf5 16. Nf6+ Ngxf6 17. Qxf5 Qc8 18.
Qd3 Nxg3 19. hxg3 Ng4 20. Qe4 {1-0 (51) Agrest,E (2591)-Bologan,V (2663)
Istanbul 2003}) 14. .. Rb8 15. O-O Nxg3 16. hxg3 Ng4 17. Qd1 f5 18. e4 Ne5
19. exf5 Bxf5 20. Nf3 Qe8 21. Nxe5 Bxe5 22. Bh5 {Against Qg6} Bg6 23. Bxg6
Qxg6 24. Qe2 Rf7 25. Ne4 {And now Nxc5! would win.} Bd4 26. Ra3 g4 $1 27.
Rd3 (27. Rb3 {$0 $11}) 27. .. Rf5 (27. .. b6 {$0 $17} 28. axb6 Rxb6) 28.
Qd2 {$0 $11} Rbf8 29. b4 $1 Re5 30. bxc5 dxc5 31. Rxd4 cxd4 32. Nc5 {Black
must now prevent Nd7.} Ref5 (32. .. Qf5 {$1 $11}) 33. Qxd4 {$0 $16} h5
{[#]} 34. Ne6 {Weaker is} (34. Nxb7 34. .. h4 35. Qe3 (35. gxh4 $2 g3 {$0
$19}) 35. .. Qh5 {$0 $15}) ({Better is} 34. Qe4 {$1 $16}) 34. .. R8f6 (34.
.. R8f7 {$0 $11}) 35. Nf4 (35. Qb6 {$0 $16}) 35. .. Qh7 {$1 $14} 36. Qa7 h4
37. Qxb7 (37. Re1 {$0 $11}) 37. .. hxg3 {$0 $15 [#] . The board is on
fire.} 38. fxg3 $4 (38. Qc8+ {$1 $15} Kf7 39. fxg3) 38. .. e5 {$1
Discovered Attack. Weighted Error Value: (very precise)} 0-1[/pgn]

This was a very simple but understandable one-move blunder by Elshan. It is due to the special feature of en-passant, that it is only good on the next move. Since White can take en-passant, he dismissed 38...e5 as bad, but unfortunately he can't play the check on c8 after 38...e5 and then take en-passant, he has to check first. I don't recall ever seeing a blunder based on this point before. So just a normal game by Hans with a lucky twist at the end. There is not the slightest indication that any player is cheating in this event, and it would be extremely unlikely with the precautions taken. Let's look on this as a fair test for all 14 players.

It can’t be a fair test since one player is under unprecedented psychological and emotional stress.

Well, the stress is due to his being caught cheating online multiple times, and hence most of the other players don't like or trust him. That is just something that he will have to live with, and it will affect his play in subsequent tournaments too. He got some benefits from his online cheating, both money and experience playing top players whom he would not have otherwise gotten to play, so perhaps it is only fair now that there are some downsides to having cheated online. Other players may have other unknown stresses, maybe financial, maybe health, maybe divorce, who knows. We can't take such unknowns into consideration in evaluating results.

Incidentally, the same thing is happening now in the GO world. A teenage player in U.S. upset a pro twice in an OTB event and qualified for a big event in China, and he is under suspicion due to proven and admitted past cheating in an online event! Exactly the same story, though he is some years younger than Niemann so is given a bit more leeway.

[Chessqueen]

Hans won today.

Are you insinuating that GM Hans only cheat when he wins, but not when he lose, it could also be that other players are using a better engine than Niemann when he lose ?

[pgn][Event "USA Championship 2022"]
[Site "Saint Louis"]
[Date "2022.10.15"]
[Round "10.4"]
[White "Moradiabadi, Elshan"]
[Black "Niemann, Hans Moke"]
[Result "0-1"]
[BlackElo "2699"]
[ECO "E61"]
[Opening "King's Indian"]
[Variation "Smyslov System, 5...c5"]
[WhiteElo "2534"]
[TimeControl "480+3"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "76"]
[WhiteType "human"]
[BlackType "human"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 g6 3. c4 Bg7 4. Nc3 O-O 5. Bg5 c5 6. d5 d6 7. e3 Nbd7
{E61: King's Indian: Early deviations for White, including Smyslov System.}
8. Be2 h6 9. Bh4 g5 {The position is equal.} 10. Bg3 Nh5 11. Qc2 {Strongly
threatening Nxg5!} Ndf6 12. Nd2 a6 13. a4 Bd7 {[#]} 14. a5 {$0 $146}
{Predecessor:} (14. O-O Ng4 15. Nde4 Bf5 16. Nf6+ Ngxf6 17. Qxf5 Qc8 18.
Qd3 Nxg3 19. hxg3 Ng4 20. Qe4 {1-0 (51) Agrest,E (2591)-Bologan,V (2663)
Istanbul 2003}) 14. .. Rb8 15. O-O Nxg3 16. hxg3 Ng4 17. Qd1 f5 18. e4 Ne5
19. exf5 Bxf5 20. Nf3 Qe8 21. Nxe5 Bxe5 22. Bh5 {Against Qg6} Bg6 23. Bxg6
Qxg6 24. Qe2 Rf7 25. Ne4 {And now Nxc5! would win.} Bd4 26. Ra3 g4 $1 27.
Rd3 (27. Rb3 {$0 $11}) 27. .. Rf5 (27. .. b6 {$0 $17} 28. axb6 Rxb6) 28.
Qd2 {$0 $11} Rbf8 29. b4 $1 Re5 30. bxc5 dxc5 31. Rxd4 cxd4 32. Nc5 {Black
must now prevent Nd7.} Ref5 (32. .. Qf5 {$1 $11}) 33. Qxd4 {$0 $16} h5
{[#]} 34. Ne6 {Weaker is} (34. Nxb7 34. .. h4 35. Qe3 (35. gxh4 $2 g3 {$0
$19}) 35. .. Qh5 {$0 $15}) ({Better is} 34. Qe4 {$1 $16}) 34. .. R8f6 (34.
.. R8f7 {$0 $11}) 35. Nf4 (35. Qb6 {$0 $16}) 35. .. Qh7 {$1 $14} 36. Qa7 h4
37. Qxb7 (37. Re1 {$0 $11}) 37. .. hxg3 {$0 $15 [#] . The board is on
fire.} 38. fxg3 $4 (38. Qc8+ {$1 $15} Kf7 39. fxg3) 38. .. e5 {$1
Discovered Attack. Weighted Error Value: (very precise)} 0-1[/pgn]

This was a very simple but understandable one-move blunder by Elshan. It is due to the special feature of en-passant, that it is only good on the next move. Since White can take en-passant, he dismissed 38...e5 as bad, but unfortunately he can't play the check on c8 after 38...e5 and then take en-passant, he has to check first. I don't recall ever seeing a blunder based on this point before. So just a normal game by Hans with a lucky twist at the end. There is not the slightest indication that any player is cheating in this event, and it would be extremely unlikely with the precautions taken. Let's look on this as a fair test for all 14 players.

It can’t be a fair test since one player is under unprecedented psychological and emotional stress.

Well, the stress is due to his being caught cheating online multiple times, and hence most of the other players don't like or trust him. That is just something that he will have to live with, and it will affect his play in subsequent tournaments too. He got some benefits from his online cheating, both money and experience playing top players whom he would not have otherwise gotten to play, so perhaps it is only fair now that there are some downsides to having cheated online. Other players may have other unknown stresses, maybe financial, maybe health, maybe divorce, who knows. We can't take such unknowns into consideration in evaluating results.

Incidentally, the same thing is happening now in the GO world. A teenage player in U.S. upset a pro twice in an OTB event and qualified for a big event in China, and he is under suspicion due to proven and admitted past cheating in an online event! Exactly the same story, though he is some years younger than Niemann so is given a bit more leeway.

Will Magnus accuse GM Arjun and Young 16 years old Gukesh of cheating or Carlsen only blame GM Hans, Magnus is losing and he lost to a 16 years old prodigy LIVE ==>

[CornfedForever]

It can’t be a fair test since one player is under unprecedented psychological and emotional stress.

Well, the stress is due to his being caught cheating online multiple times, and hence most of the other players don't like or trust him. That is just something that he will have to live with, and it will affect his play in subsequent tournaments too. He got some benefits from his online cheating, both money and experience playing top players whom he would not have otherwise gotten to play, so perhaps it is only fair now that there are some downsides to having cheated online. Other players may have other unknown stresses, maybe financial, maybe health, maybe divorce, who knows. We can't take such unknowns into consideration in evaluating results.

Incidentally, the same thing is happening now in the GO world. A teenage player in U.S. upset a pro twice in an OTB event and qualified for a big event in China, and he is under suspicion due to proven and admitted past cheating in an online event! Exactly the same story, though he is some years younger than Niemann so is given a bit more leeway.

Totally (?) unrelated, but...

Karpov's choice(s) of yogurt against Korchnoi. Benko wearing his sunglasses against Tal (?). Did he really believe he was being 'hypnotized' by Tal's stare? I need to dig out my Benko Bio and see what he said. It's such a big book, I have only dipped my toes in here or there.

The human mind is...interesting.

[M ANSARI]

Carlsen looks like he has COVID or a really bad cold or flu. His play has been way below par and he was completely lost against Keymar and no way should he have won against Vidit. The game against Keymar was especially interesting as it really shows how weak humans are tactically in complicated positions. Compared to engines I would say that even the top humans in complicated positions ... probably calculate only as good as a 2300 to 2400 ELO engine if they are not given huge amount of time. Another game that shows that is Gukesh loss against Abussatarov ... what a complicated position that was also right out of the opening.

Sure, Most people here like you believe that Carlsen can only lose if he is NOT feeling okay or maybe he has covi-19 or a really bad flu. But you are not giving this Young 19 years old GM Arjun any credit who was only rated around 2559 before covi-19 started and now is placed 21st among the best chess players on Planet Earth. In March 2020, just before the start of the pandemic, Arjun Erigaisi had a 2559 Elo rating. Two and a half years later, he finds himself as the 21st highest-rated player in the world with 2728 rating points to his name. I predicted this 4 days ago GM Arjun beating Carlsen, 2 to 3 years from NOW India will have a World Chess Champion, like I stated before most chess players in the World are studying Magnus Carlsen games carefully with top engines and trying to improve with new lines and variations suggested by top engines[/size] ==>
https://en.chessbase.com/post/aimchess-rapid-2022-d2

I have no idea where you get your information from but I actually am very impressed by all the new young Indian talent and have always been. Unlike with the american Hans Nieman ... they are the REAL DEAL. As far as I know, not a single one of them was ever caught cheating online and their statistical data does not have any ragiing anomalies pointing to cheating like Hans Nieman has. I think MC is also very impressed by them and enjoys the new challenges they give him. What you seem to not understand is the this whole thing is not about young and upcoming GMs playing really well ... this historically has happened over and over again and will continue to happen. This thread is more about one specific player who is an admitted serial cheater online and seems like he is a cheater over the board as well. You are trying to somehow equate Hans Nieman to all these talented young indian prodigies ... that is disgusting.

[sarona]

Totally (?) unrelated, but...

Karpov's choice(s) of yogurt against Korchnoi. Benko wearing his sunglasses against Tal (?). Did he really believe he was being 'hypnotized' by Tal's stare? (snip)

The human mind is...interesting.

I recall Viktor wore his own pair of mirror glasses during the 1978 World Championship in Baguio against Anatoly Karpov (lots of bizarre incidents during that match). Perhaps out of fear of Dr. Zoukhar.