Tata Steel 2025 Simulation Results

[mbabigian]

After doing a lot of testing today, I found one minor and one major bug in the simulator, so I updated the graphs.

This changed the least favored position slightly as well. It appears the least favored position with SB tie breaks only (No SoPS) is 13. So Nodirbek took that spot, not Arjun. The table below is with equal ratings (all 2800) and a white advantage of 36 Elo.

Code: Select all

Gukesh Dommaraju 7.9327%
Jorden van Foreest 7.7421%
Anish Giri 7.6865%
Yi Wei 7.4949%
Vladimir Fedoseev 7.3667%
Max Warmerdam 7.3452%
Leon Luke Mendonca 7.1686%
Fabiano Caruana 7.0139%
Proggnanandhaa Rameshbabu 6.9483%
Alexey Sarana 6.9001%
Pentala Harikrishna 6.7881%
Arjun Erigaisi 6.6488%
Vincent Keymer 6.5727%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov 6.3914%

After Round 9, here are the current probabilities.


Still some chances for others, but Gukesh has a commanding lead.

Mike.
P.S. Ajedrecista - great info as always. Thank you.

[Jouni]

Erigaisi lost 4 games from 7 first. Is this a record for 2800+ player!?