Lichess Blitz rating to FIDE rating

[Ferdy]

Per https://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=73564, a maybe-conceptually-inspired-by-Rodent private engine.

Not likely to be a derivative of SF, but not a lot of detail to go on.

I wouldn't read too much into its lichess rating. Just an artefact of its opponents. It's +1839 =11 -11 in blitz, with at least one of the losses coming against a TOS-violating opponent.

If it played the same people Carlsen played, it would be much higher rated.

Cheers!

Nezh is a private engine, and I can't add much more than what's been stated, since I'm only its tester. It predates NN/NNUE and only uses HCE.

As I mentioned before, its rating would continue to climb if it kept playing more and more decent strength humans.
That has been the undeniable trend and 2900 Elo on lichess does not reflect its ultimate potential, which is probably to be on par or slightly better than the human world champ. That's what its strength projects to be based on private tests against other engines, which point to somewhere around 2800-2900 CCRL.

OK, now we're getting somewhere. Let's call it 2850 CCRL based on your statement. Is there a way to determine its score only against titled players (excluding TOS violators if any) and their mean LiChess blitz rating? Then we can compute an approximate performance rating for it and see the difference from the CCRL estimate. Perhaps it won't be much more than the 206 elo calculated for MiniHuman.

Here is the data of its opponents.

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                            site               oppname pgntitle  pgnrating  TOS  blitzrating  score  Nezh-BOT_score
0   https://lichess.org/oIYFQfAs          dmitrijiiiGM       CM       2657    0         2727    0.0             1.0
1   https://lichess.org/HMPDu49k          dmitrijiiiGM       CM       2656    0         2727    0.5             0.5
2   https://lichess.org/Bw0A7t8l                CXCX83       GM       2653    0         2708    0.0             1.0
3   https://lichess.org/phaor9Ki                CXCX83       GM       2654    0         2708    0.0             1.0
4   https://lichess.org/NgzHhi7C                CXCX83       GM       2655    0         2708    0.0             1.0
5   https://lichess.org/JTH4qCHh                CXCX83       GM       2656    0         2708    0.0             1.0
6   https://lichess.org/J1vRvjKi               DanPach       FM       2488    0         2592    0.0             1.0
7   https://lichess.org/jLOpgANG               DanPach       FM       2488    0         2592    0.0             1.0
8   https://lichess.org/cPEEwdDR               DanPach       FM       2489    0         2592    0.0             1.0
9   https://lichess.org/3ILuIVsH               DanPach       FM       2489    0         2592    0.0             1.0
10  https://lichess.org/6pNUtbRz               DanPach       FM       2490    0         2592    0.0             1.0
11  https://lichess.org/CDZ1vD3w             JuleVerne       FM       2610    0         2620    0.0             1.0
12  https://lichess.org/VKSXZcFl  HorrendousBrilliancy       GM       2635    0         2929    0.0             1.0
13  https://lichess.org/FDZhQKDZ             justantan       GM       2642    0         2850    0.0             1.0
14  https://lichess.org/KuWdI0F9      juancruzariasTDF       CM       2530    0         2707    0.0             1.0
15  https://lichess.org/OwWgh9ie           Tahaned2015       IM       2386    0         2607    0.0             1.0
16  https://lichess.org/WUewJm1l           jeffforever       FM       2474    0         2617    0.0             1.0
17  https://lichess.org/KvBwiY2T                gmluke       GM       2677    0         2737    0.0             1.0
18  https://lichess.org/CLzKn17H             rickyrich       NM       2339    0         2313    0.0             1.0
19  https://lichess.org/eSiPhCGg             rickyrich       NM       2295    0         2313    0.0             1.0

pgnrating column is the lichess blitz rating of the opp of Nezh-BOT at the time of encounter.
blitzrating column is the current lichess blitz rating of the opp of Nezh-BOT.

I tried to calculate its perf using the pgnrating column as this is their actual encounter. Get the mean convert it to FIDE rating. Then take its score rate. Then use the FIDE table given score rate to get the rating difference. Calculate the FIDE perf by opp_rating + rating diff, then convert it back to lichess blitz rating to get its blitz rating based from those titled opponents.

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Nezh-BOT opp mean lichess blitz rating: 2548 (using pgnrating column)
Nezh-BOT score rate: 0.975

FIDE mean rating conversion: 2308 from 2548 (using fide=181 + 0.83458xlichess)
FIDE rating table 8.1a, 0.975 is around rating diff = 538

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Nezh-BOT FIDE perf rating = 2308 + 538 = 2846
Nezh-BOT Lichess Blitz rating conversion: 3193 (using lichess = (fide - 181) / 0.83458)

Nezh-BOT Lichess blitz rating is around 3193, based from titled, non-bot and non-tos violator opponents.

Nice! So the estimated FIDE rating of 2846 is almost exactly the middle of the 2800 to 2900 estimated CCRL rating, although of course with only one draw given up the margin of error is huge. Similarly the estimated FIDE rating for MiniHuman based on your formula is close to the CCRL blitz rating we measured for it (now 2233). It seems that CCRL blitz ratings are not so far off from FIDE ratings for blitz games between humans and engines. Do you know at what time control these blitz games were played on LiChess (could be anywhere from 3-0 to 5-3 I think)? Also, are there any engines on your list with Lichess blitz ratings that are standard A/B engines not using nets which have ratings based solely (or almost solely) on playing humans and many opponents within a hundred elo or so?

This is the TC frequency.


We need to read the bots profile bio in order to determine if it uses an NN or not. There are bots that have no info about it.

[Ferdy]

Human play is really unpredictable. maia1 is only using 1 node per move and its rapid rating is generally higher than blitz. That means its opponents' strength do not scale with time. In fact it is deteriorating . This is fun, human is better in blitz than in rapid against a fix node mover. Does maia really uses a 1 node in rapid and 1 node in blitz?

[Carlos777]

Human play is really unpredictable. maia1 is only using 1 node per move and its rapid rating is generally higher than blitz. That means its opponents' strength do not scale with time. In fact it is deteriorating . This is fun, human is better in blitz than in rapid against a fix node mover. Does maia really uses a 1 node in rapid and 1 node in blitz?

Anybody knows how to set the nodes to "1" as a parameter in Winboard or Arena? I can't find that option in Lc0 website.

Thanks in advance.

[Ferdy]

Anybody knows how to set the nodes to "1" as a parameter in Winboard or Arena? I can't find that option in Lc0 website.

In arena you can select levels then nodes.

[Carlos777]

Anybody knows how to set the nodes to "1" as a parameter in Winboard or Arena? I can't find that option in Lc0 website.

In arena you can select levels then nodes.

Where?

[Ferdy]

Anybody knows how to set the nodes to "1" as a parameter in Winboard or Arena? I can't find that option in Lc0 website.

In arena you can select levels then nodes.

Where?

Levels->Adjust->nodes

[MonteCarlo]

Human play is really unpredictable. maia1 is only using 1 node per move and its rapid rating is generally higher than blitz. That means its opponents' strength do not scale with time. In fact it is deteriorating . This is fun, human is better in blitz than in rapid against a fix node mover. Does maia really uses a 1 node in rapid and 1 node in blitz?

Mostly a subjective impression backed by some observations, but I think the pool of players in rapid on lichess is generally weaker than the pool of players in blitz, so rapid ratings tend to be higher than blitz. I know quite a few people who have rapid ratings well north of 100 points higher than their blitz, but no so many the other way around.

I suspect that plays a fairly large role in that discrepancy for Maia. In fact, I'd probably take that result for Maia as evidence for that hypothesis.

Cheers!

[Ferdy]

Human play is really unpredictable. maia1 is only using 1 node per move and its rapid rating is generally higher than blitz. That means its opponents' strength do not scale with time. In fact it is deteriorating . This is fun, human is better in blitz than in rapid against a fix node mover. Does maia really uses a 1 node in rapid and 1 node in blitz?

Mostly a subjective impression backed by some observations, but I think the pool of players in rapid on lichess is generally weaker than the pool of players in blitz, so rapid ratings tend to be higher than blitz. I know quite a few people who have rapid ratings well north of 100 points higher than their blitz, but no so many the other way around.

I suspect that plays a fairly large role in that discrepancy for Maia. In fact, I'd probably take that result for Maia as evidence for that hypothesis.

Cheers!

It depends on the opponents rating and according to the last 1900 games each in blitz and rapid against non-bot opponents.

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blitz
opp mean rating: 1450
maia1 score rate: 0.51027

rapid
opp mean rating: 1499
maia1 score rate: 0.50874

On average it has a stronger opp in rapid, and performed a little bit lower but then again the time difference between rapid and blitz is huge and a strange human failed to capitalize or maia1 on rapid is not using 1 node.

[MonteCarlo]

Perhaps I did not express myself well.

What you show there is not that it has stronger opponents in rapid; you show that it has higher rated opponents.

My whole point is that I think the blitz pool on lichess is generally stronger than the rapid pool, i.e., a 1600 blitz player is generally favored against a 1600 rapid player if they played at the same time control (either blitz or rapid).

This would go some way to explaining the seemingly anomalous results, and as I said before, since Maia1 is playing a fixed level of chess regardless of TC, the results could even be taken as evidence in favor of that hypothesis.

Cheers!

[lkaufman]

I discovered a real oddity on the topic of comparing Lichess blitz ratings with CCRL blitz ratings. There is an engine listed there called "Safrad 2.2.40". It has a CCRL blitz rating of 1009. However if you go to the link where you can download it, it is stated that it has a Lichess Blitz rating of 2050!! I've been claiming that CCRL blitz ratings were too low relative to human ratings, especially Lichess ratings, but a difference of well over a thousand elo?? Can this possibly be true? Does anyone know anything about this engine or have any idea of what could explain this? If this is legit then we really need to rethink how we quote human elos for engines.