2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

[jefk]

maybe some of their seconds should follow this forum (*);
with all it ups and downs.
(*) and if they do, well it's nowadays about avoiding mistakes
but then suddenly one side can setup a sharp opening
and get chances (or it could backfire)

[towforce]

UNBELIEVABLE!!!

I've never seen the like of this before!

With only 4 bookies in the market for this event, they're offering even more free money!

https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner

Bet 365 are offering 1.67 on Gukesh.
Unibet and Bet MGM are both offering 3.15 on Ding.

Bet £59.88 to win £100 if Gukesh wins.
Bet £31.75 to win £100 if Ding wins.

To win this £100 you will only be staking 59.88 + 31.75 = £91.63

My guess:

1. Bookies in China are offering too much on Gukesh
2. Bookies in India are offering too much on Ding
3. British bookies are able to offer generous bets and offset them in these Asian markets

[Chris Formula]

Game 11: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgcusP_xKBg
hoping for 6-5!

[chesskobra]

Game 11: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgcusP_xKBg
hoping for 6-5!

Yes, this is the commentary I follow and also Giri sometimes. From Howell and Houska I learned how to pronounce Gemini, and they being British, it must be the correct pronunciation.

[towforce]

Ding has used 54 minutes and has made 4 moves. He deserves to lose for this idiotic time control!

Edit: now over an hour and only 4 moves made. He has to make 40 moves in 2 hours.

[Chris Formula]

Game 11 analysis:
https://youtu.be/rD-JOpj8jsM?si=XLxClBfsvMhEbWZD
https://youtu.be/rGiaKMySp-Y?si=-T3G6cLJXZZzdPXv

[towforce]

When Ding has had the white pieces, he's been giving Gukesh easy games.

Now he has to find a win.

It doesn't seem as if he'll be able to.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Graham:

Ding has used 54 minutes and has made 4 moves. He deserves to lose for this idiotic time control!

Edit: now over an hour and only 4 moves made. He has to make 40 moves in 2 hours.

I could not agree more with you: Ding fully deserves losing as much as possible, this is, 8-5 from now. It will not happen, though. What is the point of waste circa one hour (half of the time up to 40th move) in fourth and fifth moves? It slightly reminds me about the 2022-2023 snooker match-fixing betting scandal by a good amount of Chinese players, sadly.

Your math on other post was correct. When you said that 'If you bet the right amount [...] on each player' in other post, the optimal distribution of percentage of the total bet from the gambler POV is the probability to win of each player, but I forgot how I calculated it with expected wins and partial derivatives around a decade ago. The results were:

Code: Select all

Oᵢ := odds of i winning (in European system = 1 + English system).
qᵢ := percentage of the total bet to i winning.
Pᵢ := probability of i winning.
H  := house edge.

Σ(1/Oᵢ) = 1 + H
ⁱ

Pᵢ = 1/[(1 + H)·Oᵢ]

[...] qᵢ = Pᵢ

Maximum expected win (minimum expected loss, usually):

Pᵢ·(Oᵢ - 1) - (1 - Pᵢ) = Pᵢ·Oᵢ - 1 = 1/(1 + H) - 1 = -H/(1 + H)

The same if i loses and any other wins.

Thus, for the normal situation of a positive house edge, if you bet to all the possibilities, the expected outcome is to lose some money, hence the try to pick the best odds from each bookmark instead of all of them from the same. It is very rare indeed to get H < 0 combining different bookies, but this WCC is one case, with Gukesh winning paid at 1.3:1 (European system) by two bookmarks and Ding winning paid at 5:1 (European system) by other two bookmarks.

------------

There are five bookies now on the same betting aggregator site. Here are the fractional odds (English system):

Code: Select all

Gukesh    1/8    1/7    1/7     3/10     3/10
Ding      9/2     4      4     43/20    43/20

Which translates into the following probabilities:

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Gukesh    44/53     35/43    35/43    63/89    63/89
Ding       9/53      8/43     8/43    26/89    26/89

Code: Select all

Gukesh    83.02%    81.40%    81.40%    70.79%    70.79%
Ding      16.98%    18.60%    18.60%    29.21%    29.21%

For an average of 785732/1014155 ~ 77.48% for Gukesh and 228423/1014155 ~ 22.52% for Ding (55/71 and 16/71 are good enough approximations).

Code: Select all

================================
Gukesh points    Gukesh champion
================================
    0.0/0            76.21%
    0.0/1            57.64%
    0.5/2            50.68%
    1.5/3            64.01%
    2.0/4            ??.??%
    2.5/5            ??.??%
    3.0/6            72.65%
    3.5/7            68.69%
    4.0/8            ??.??%
    4.5/9            ??.??%
    5.0/10           ??.??%
    6.0/11           77.48%

------------

Going back to the previous topic, taking the best odds 1.3:1 (European system) and 5:1 (European system) from different bookies:

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1/1.3 + 1/5 = 63/65 = 1 + H ; H = -2/65

Gukesh = (65/63)/1.3 = 50/63
Ding   = (65/63)/5   = 13/63

So, the optimum strategy should be to bet £50 to Gukesh champion and £13 to Ding champion (or any other multiples), with the same expected gain whoever wins:

Code: Select all

Maximum expected win:
-H/(1 + H) = -(-2/65)/[1 + (-2/65)] = (2/65)/(63/65) = 2/63 ~ 3.17%
That is, a £2 net gain (or other currency) for every £63 wagered.

COMPROBATION:
Gukesh wins: £50 · (1.3 - 1) - £13 = £2
Dind wins:   £13 · ( 5  - 1) - £50 = £2

Later Government taxes might apply, cutting the gain or even losing money. In fact, it is strange to win money betting on all the outcomes.

Disclaimer: this post is intended as a mathematical proof —though I forgot the most important part of the proof—, not as a gambling encourage advice.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[towforce]

Game 11 analysis:
...

Wow - I didn't recognise Danny King!

He used to be on TV in Britain regularly, and I have met him twice:

1. I played against him in a simul (you'll probably only need one guess what the outcome was)

2. He visited the World Computer Chess Championship at Alexandra Palace in London in 2000

[towforce]

Your math on other post was correct. When you said that 'If you bet the right amount [...] on each player' in other post, the optimal distribution of percentage of the total bet from the gambler POV is the probability to win of each player, but I forgot how I calculated it with expected wins and partial derivatives around a decade ago. The results were...

If I may, my way of looking at it is somewhat simpler:

1. Always use decimal odds: they're a lot easier to work with, and to change the "odds" to a "probability", just take the reciprocal (1/decimal odds)

2. At time of writing, the best odds on each player are 1.14 and 5.5 (1.3 is shown for Gukesh in two columns, but they're "greyed out" (colour white) so they're not actually available at this time)

3. The total implied probability is (1/1.14) + (1/5.5) = 1.06

4. As a percentage, this is 106%

5. The bookies' margin is 6% - so betting on both players is a losing proposition

6. To win £100 if Guskesh wins, bet 100/1.14 = £87.72

7. To win £100 if Ding wins, bet 100/5.5 = £18.18

8. So if you bet on both players, winning that £100 will cost you 87.22 + 18.18 = £105.40

At this time, you won't pay tax on money you win from a bet in England.