2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

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Who is more likely to win the 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship?

Poll ended at Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:14 pm

Ding Liren
10
26%
Dommaraju Gukesh
29
74%
 
Total votes: 39

Chris Formula
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2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Chris Formula »

swami
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by swami »

During the olympiad, Ding Lien said that Gukesh is performing better than him, and also has higher ranking hence Gukesh is the favourite to win the forthcoming World Championship. Though, Ding Liren has experience, as it's his second WC. But I believe being in form is the decider.
Jouni
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Jouni »

Bet365 gives Gukesh 1.25 Ding 3.75. But isn't this in wrong forum? Should be in Chess Players Forum.
Jouni
Chris Formula
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Chris Formula »

looks like Gukesh is the popular choice among the respondents. let's see if this translates to the actual outcome of the event. looking forward to the analysis of games of this championship match. :)
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Ajedrecista
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship.

Post by Ajedrecista »

Hello:
Jouni wrote: Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:09 pmBet365 gives Gukesh 1.25 Ding 3.75. [...]
I am willing to see how the WCC develops. Here are the fractional odds (English system) of a betting aggregator site right now:

Code: Select all

Gukesh     1/5    1/6    1/6    27/100    27/100    27/100
Ding      10/3    7/2    7/2     5/2       5/2       5/2
Which translates into the following probabilities:

Code: Select all

Gukesh    65/83    27/34    27/34    350/477    350/477    350/477
Ding      18/83     7/34     7/34    127/477    127/477    127/477

Code: Select all

Gukesh    78.31%    79.41%    79.41%    73.38%    73.38%    73.38%
Ding      21.69%    20.59%    20.59%    26.62%    26.62%    26.62%
For an average of 512932/673047 ~ 76.21% to Gukesh and 160115/673047 ~ 23.79% to Ding (16/21 and 5/21 are good enough approximations). The bookies and people who are betting consider that Gukesh is the favourite and Ding is the underdog, as noted by Chris.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.
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towforce
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by towforce »

Gukesh's modus operandi:

1. play quickly, making moves that force the opponent to think

2. get to a slightly poor position, but be ahead on the clock

3. make a frightening aggressive attack

4. opponent succumbs to fear and time pressure

If Ding keeps cool, the above methodology could fail at either, or both, of steps (2) and (4) above.
The simple reveals itself after the complex has been exhausted.
Norm Pollock
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Norm Pollock »

In 2021 in an online blitz match with Ling(W), Gukesh(B) misses the win.

[d]3r3k/6p1/1bp2q1p/5p2/p1Q2B2/P5P1/1P2RPP1/6K1 b - - 0 1


Updated links for 40H Tools and Databases
http://40Hchess.epizy.com
http://nk-qy.info/40h
Jouni
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Jouni »

This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!
Jouni
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Ajedrecista
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship.

Post by Ajedrecista »

Hello Norm:

I saw ..., Rd1+; Kh2, Qg6 by myself! It is true that after been told that there is a winning line. I simply could not find Be5, Bd4, but I can be proud given my level. :-)

Time is ticking down to the first game!

------------

Hello Jouni:
Jouni wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 7:40 pm This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!
I would say that some FIDE WCC winners and runners-up during the split (1993-2005) were lower in the FIDE ranking.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.
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Brunetti
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Re: 2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

Post by Brunetti »

Jouni wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 7:40 pm This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!
In 2004, when Kasparov and Short made the scission, in FIDE final we had Adams #4 vs Kasimdzhanov #44 (the winner) :D

Alex