2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

[Chris Formula]

https://worldchampionship.fide.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Che ... nship_2024

[swami]

During the olympiad, Ding Lien said that Gukesh is performing better than him, and also has higher ranking hence Gukesh is the favourite to win the forthcoming World Championship. Though, Ding Liren has experience, as it's his second WC. But I believe being in form is the decider.

[Jouni]

Bet365 gives Gukesh 1.25 Ding 3.75. But isn't this in wrong forum? Should be in Chess Players Forum.

[Chris Formula]

looks like Gukesh is the popular choice among the respondents. let's see if this translates to the actual outcome of the event. looking forward to the analysis of games of this championship match.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

Bet365 gives Gukesh 1.25 Ding 3.75. [...]

I am willing to see how the WCC develops. Here are the fractional odds (English system) of a betting aggregator site right now:

Code: Select all

Gukesh     1/5    1/6    1/6    27/100    27/100    27/100
Ding      10/3    7/2    7/2     5/2       5/2       5/2

Which translates into the following probabilities:

Code: Select all

Gukesh    65/83    27/34    27/34    350/477    350/477    350/477
Ding      18/83     7/34     7/34    127/477    127/477    127/477

Code: Select all

Gukesh    78.31%    79.41%    79.41%    73.38%    73.38%    73.38%
Ding      21.69%    20.59%    20.59%    26.62%    26.62%    26.62%

For an average of 512932/673047 ~ 76.21% to Gukesh and 160115/673047 ~ 23.79% to Ding (16/21 and 5/21 are good enough approximations). The bookies and people who are betting consider that Gukesh is the favourite and Ding is the underdog, as noted by Chris.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[towforce]

Gukesh's modus operandi:

1. play quickly, making moves that force the opponent to think

2. get to a slightly poor position, but be ahead on the clock

3. make a frightening aggressive attack

4. opponent succumbs to fear and time pressure

If Ding keeps cool, the above methodology could fail at either, or both, of steps (2) and (4) above.

[Norm Pollock]

In 2021 in an online blitz match with Ling(W), Gukesh(B) misses the win.

[d]3r3k/6p1/1bp2q1p/5p2/p1Q2B2/P5P1/1P2RPP1/6K1 b - - 0 1

[Jouni]

This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Norm:

I saw ..., Rd1+; Kh2, Qg6 by myself! It is true that after been told that there is a winning line. I simply could not find Be5, Bd4, but I can be proud given my level.

Time is ticking down to the first game!

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Hello Jouni:

This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!

I would say that some FIDE WCC winners and runners-up during the split (1993-2005) were lower in the FIDE ranking.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[Brunetti]

This is world number 5 vs world number 22 player now. The weakest FIDE WCC ever?!

In 2004, when Kasparov and Short made the scission, in FIDE final we had Adams #4 vs Kasimdzhanov #44 (the winner)

Alex