statistics on what four first moves win most often

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flok

statistics on what four first moves win most often

Post by flok »

Hi,

Did some statistics on what first 4 moves win most often:

Code: Select all

d2-d4 c2-c4 b1-c3 c4-d5         61.211          38083
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-c3 f2-f4         60.9751         21043
d2-d4 c2-c4 g1-f3 g2-g3         60.8206         27369
e2-e4 g1-f3 f1-b5 e1-g1         60.693          31025
d2-d4 c2-c4 g1-f3 b1-c3         60.6159         52219
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-d2 e4-e5         60.0477         21816
d2-d4 g1-f3 c2-c4 b1-c3         59.7149         49522
e2-e4 g1-f3 f1-b5 b5-a4         59.4072         86402
d2-d4 c2-c4 b1-c3 c1-g5         59.242          34538
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-c3 c1-g5         58.7272         20270
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-c3 c3-e4         58.7263         28844
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-c3 e4-e5         58.2016         42315
d2-d4 c2-c4 b1-c3 e2-e4         58.0099         95894
d2-d4 c2-c4 b1-c3 g1-f3         57.432          61760
d2-d4 g1-f3 g2-g3 f1-g2         56.5739         27115
e2-e4 g1-f3 b1-c3 d2-d4         56.3893         22350
g1-f3 g2-g3 f1-g2 e1-g1         56.3741         34154
e2-e4 d2-d4 b1-c3 g1-f3         56.0717         21353
e2-e4 g1-f3 f1-b5 b5-c6         55.8465         21158
d2-d4 c2-c4 b1-c3 e2-e3         55.8194         40348
d2-d4 c2-c4 d4-d5 b1-c3         55.7564         22679
c2-c4 b1-c3 g2-g3 f1-g2         54.2077         38275
e2-e4 g1-f3 d2-d4 f3-d4         53.1315         362497
e2-e4 d2-d4 e4-e5 c2-c3         51.2469         26626
e2-e4 b1-c3 g2-g3 f1-g2         49.6004         30778
Second column is percentage (seen from white point of view), third column is the number of games analyzed for those 4 moves.
Sven
Posts: 4052
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 9:57 pm
Location: Berlin, Germany
Full name: Sven Schüle

Re: statistics on what four first moves win most often

Post by Sven »

Three questions arise for me:

Is there anything you can derive from that statistics?

Which game database did you use?

And why did you omit the black moves?

Sven
flok

Re: statistics on what four first moves win most often

Post by flok »

Sven Schüle wrote:Three questions arise for me:
1. Is there anything you can derive from that statistics?
2. Which game database did you use?
3. And why did you omit the black moves?
Sven
1. maybe that one should preferably use a certain opening for maximum win chance :-)
2. random .pgn-files I found on the web with 4.5 million games
3. oops!

Code: Select all

1.d2-d4 d7-d5    2.c2-c4 e7-e6   3.b1-c3 g8-f6   64.5689 31478
1.d2-d4 d7-d5    2.c2-c4 c7-c6   3.g1-f3 g8-f6   62.9001 25027
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 g8-f6   3.f3-e5 d7-d6   62.195 15617
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.f1-b5 g8-f6   62.1393 13341
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 e7-e6   3.b1-c3 d7-d5   61.5442 11967
1.d2-d4 d7-d5    2.c2-c4 c7-c6   3.b1-c3 g8-f6   60.6404 15615
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.b1-d2 c7-c5   60.6148 12883
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.b1-d2 g8-f6   60.0569 22507
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.f1-b5 g7-g6   59.7589 11364
1.e2-e4 d7-d6    2.d2-d4 g8-f6   3.b1-c3 g7-g6   58.751 34796
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.f1-b5 a7-a6   58.7081 99218
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.g1-f3 g7-g6   3.c2-c4 f8-g7   58.2721 21077
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 e7-e6   3.g1-f3 d7-d5   58.1375 12510
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.d2-d4 e5-d4   58.1364 34911
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.b1-c3 f8-b4   58.0961 43027
1.e2-e4 g8-f6    2.e4-e5 f6-d5   3.d2-d4 d7-d6   58.0614 22862
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 e7-e6   3.g1-f3 b7-b6   57.9263 24709
1.e2-e4 d7-d5    2.e4-d5 d8-d5   3.b1-c3 d5-a5   57.7137 19822
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.b1-c3 g8-f6   57.5532 24996
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 g7-g6   3.b1-c3 f8-g7   57.2156 87553
1.e2-e4 g7-g6    2.d2-d4 f8-g7   3.b1-c3 d7-d6   57.0101 13017
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 c7-c5   3.d4-d5 e7-e6   56.5619 12123
1.e2-e4 c7-c6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.b1-c3 d5-e4   56.2521 23400
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.f1-c4 f8-c5   56.1468 32326
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 g7-g6   3.b1-c3 d7-d5   55.877 34354
1.e2-e4 c7-c6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.e4-e5 c8-f5   55.3486 16752
1.e2-e4 c7-c6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.e4-d5 c6-d5   54.8288 23194
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.c2-c3 d7-d5   3.e4-d5 d8-d5   54.7476 16008
1.g1-f3 g8-f6    2.g2-g3 g7-g6   3.f1-g2 f8-g7   54.2087 10716
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.g1-f3 d7-d6   3.d2-d4 c5-d4   54.1369 157233
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.f1-c4 g8-f6   53.5138 28516
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 e7-e6   3.b1-c3 f8-b4   53.3392 56780
1.d2-d4 g8-f6    2.c2-c4 c7-c5   3.d4-d5 b7-b5   52.9909 21415
1.e2-e4 e7-e5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.b1-c3 g8-f6   52.3655 15747
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.g1-f3 b8-c6   3.d2-d4 c5-d4   52.021 105888
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.g1-f3 e7-e6   3.d2-d4 c5-d4   50.9513 75056
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.c2-c3 g8-f6   3.e4-e5 f6-d5   49.9184 14704
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.e4-e5 c7-c5   49.7162 28717
1.e2-e4 e7-e6    2.d2-d4 d7-d5   3.e4-d5 e6-d5   45.1183 16951
1.e2-e4 c7-c5    2.b1-c3 b8-c6   3.g2-g3 g7-g6   44.6009 17401