SWCR: ELO-progress after 100, 200 ... up to 1.000 games

[Frank Quisinsky]

Hi there,

have a look in News-Ticker message 241!

Here you can find the ratings from the new add SWCR-32 engines after 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000 games.

Look here:
http://www.amateurschach.de/swcr/_aktuell-s5.htm#241

Not important is the errorbar because the errorbar is wrong in ELOstat and Bayesian.

Example:
Engine A - Engine B played 5.000 games
Engine A - 50 other engines played 100 games = 5.000 games.

ErrBar ist the same.
Right is, that with more opponents the error bar should be smaller and smaller.

After 5.000 games from two different engines only the ErrorBar should be around +- 67 and not 7 ELO. With more and more opponents from -67 to around -14 after 1.000 games.

Most are looking on it. Right is that around 500 games are enough for around +20 ELO and 1.000 games are enough for around +- 10 ELO

IF ...
more as 24 opponents an engine have. The difference with more as 24 opponents are not big enough!

Perhaps I wrote a bit in English about it with all stats. At the moment I don't have time for such a paper because I need to long (my bad English).

Or:
Average different from 1.000 to 2.000 games = 3 ELO.
Average different from 1.000 to 4.000 games = 4 ELO.

Best
Frank

[Frank Quisinsky]

If you have interest to make own statsitics about it use the SWCR database.

Example:
Do it with Shredder 12 w32 or each other engine.
Each game have a date. So you can delete Shredder games 200-7000 and you can create a new ELO calculation. After this one delete Shredder games 300-7000 and make a new calculation and so on.

Not important which of the engines you try out. It's allways the same +-5 after 1.000 games.

1.000 games in SWCR are allways 25 opponents.
Only full 40 game matches are added in the official SWCR database.

My excel files are bigger and bigger, perhaps I give it for download to a later time.

Best
Frank