At a time when he had to slow Houdini down- or else, he faces "or else!" As far as I can tell, if you slow Houdini down, it is extremely temporary. When you have to face Houdini- I see a lot more questions than answers, and awfully tough now after Houdini stretched the lead out to 20 games. We shall see.
Intel i5 w/4TCs
Fritz 13 gui
1CPU/64bit
128MB hash
Bases=NONE
Ponder_Learning=OFF
Perfect 12.32 book w/12-move limit 5'+5"
Match=500 games
[thru game 250]
Well, I'm out of answers- if I ever had any- and really can't remember the questions. I suppose maybe if one of the top programs were to run against Houdini- giving them both 12 or 16 cores, and set a control of 40 moves in the first year and a half- then the rest within a limit of a couple weeks- and the planets were in the right alignment, it might get lucky. Who knows. Maybe wouldn't hurt to bring a few voodoo dolls just in case.
At a time when he had to slow Houdini down- or else, he faces "or else!" As far as I can tell, if you slow Houdini down, it is extremely temporary. When you have to face Houdini- I see a lot more questions than answers, and awfully tough now after Houdini stretched the lead out to 20 games. We shall see.
Intel i5 w/4TCs
Fritz 13 gui
1CPU/64bit
128MB hash
Bases=NONE
Ponder_Learning=OFF
Perfect 12.32 book w/12-move limit 5'+5"
Match=500 games
[thru game 250]
Well, I'm out of answers- if I ever had any- and really can't remember the questions. I suppose maybe if one of the top programs were to run against Houdini- giving them both 12 or 16 cores, and set a control of 40 moves in the first year and a half- then the rest within a limit of a couple weeks- and the planets were in the right alignment, it might get lucky. Who knows. Maybe wouldn't hurt to bring a few voodoo dolls just in case.
Tomorrow-
george
Although the match is in its half, it seems that Rainbow will fail again in the task of beat Houdini. Here are my results from Rainbow POV:
LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator, ® 2012.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Calculation of Elo uncertainties in a match between two engines:
----------------------------------------------------------------
(The input and output data is referred to the first engine).
Please write down non-negative integers.
Write down the number of wins (up to 1825361100):
57
Write down the number of loses (up to 1825361100):
77
Write down the number of draws (up to 2147483646):
116
Write down the confidence level (in percentage) between 65% and 99.9% (it will be rounded up to 0.01%):
95
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
---------------------------------------
Elo interval for 95.00 % confidence:
Elo rating difference: -27.85 Elo
Lower rating difference: -59.72 Elo
Upper rating difference: 3.55 Elo
Lower bound uncertainty: -31.86 Elo
Upper bound uncertainty: 31.40 Elo
Average error: +/- 31.63 Elo
K = (average error)*[sqrt(n)] = 500.16
Elo interval: ] -59.72, 3.55[
---------------------------------------
Number of games of the match: 250
Score: 46.00 %
Elo rating difference: -27.85 Elo
Draw ratio: 46.40 %
*********************************************************
Standard deviation: 4.5105 % of the points of the match.
*********************************************************
Error bars were calculated with two-sided tests; values are rounded up to 0.01 Elo, or 0.01 in the case of K.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Calculation of likelihood of superiority (LOS) in a one-sided test:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
LOS (taking into account draws) is always calculated, if possible.
LOS (not taking into account draws) is only calculated if wins + loses < 16001.
LOS (average value) is calculated only when LOS (not taking into account draws) is calculated.
______________________________________________
LOS: 4.11 % (taking into account draws).
LOS: 4.24 % (not taking into account draws).
LOS: 4.17 % (average value).
______________________________________________
These values of LOS are rounded up to 0.01%
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 55 ms.
Thanks for using LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator. Press Enter to exit.
More less -28 ± 32 Elo after 250 games, with 95% confidence. LOS is below 4.3%, so in theory less than 1/23 with the data of this match. It looks like Rainbow is somewhat stuck, although in this level it is completely normal. I stay tuned.
At a time when he had to slow Houdini down- or else, he faces "or else!" As far as I can tell, if you slow Houdini down, it is extremely temporary. When you have to face Houdini- I see a lot more questions than answers, and awfully tough now after Houdini stretched the lead out to 20 games. We shall see.
Intel i5 w/4TCs
Fritz 13 gui
1CPU/64bit
128MB hash
Bases=NONE
Ponder_Learning=OFF
Perfect 12.32 book w/12-move limit 5'+5"
Match=500 games
[thru game 250]
Well, I'm out of answers- if I ever had any- and really can't remember the questions. I suppose maybe if one of the top programs were to run against Houdini- giving them both 12 or 16 cores, and set a control of 40 moves in the first year and a half- then the rest within a limit of a couple weeks- and the planets were in the right alignment, it might get lucky. Who knows. Maybe wouldn't hurt to bring a few voodoo dolls just in case.
Tomorrow-
george
Although the match is in its half, it seems that Rainbow will fail again in the task of beat Houdini. Here are my results from Rainbow POV:
LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator, ® 2012.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Calculation of Elo uncertainties in a match between two engines:
----------------------------------------------------------------
(The input and output data is referred to the first engine).
Please write down non-negative integers.
Write down the number of wins (up to 1825361100):
57
Write down the number of loses (up to 1825361100):
77
Write down the number of draws (up to 2147483646):
116
Write down the confidence level (in percentage) between 65% and 99.9% (it will be rounded up to 0.01%):
95
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
---------------------------------------
Elo interval for 95.00 % confidence:
Elo rating difference: -27.85 Elo
Lower rating difference: -59.72 Elo
Upper rating difference: 3.55 Elo
Lower bound uncertainty: -31.86 Elo
Upper bound uncertainty: 31.40 Elo
Average error: +/- 31.63 Elo
K = (average error)*[sqrt(n)] = 500.16
Elo interval: ] -59.72, 3.55[
---------------------------------------
Number of games of the match: 250
Score: 46.00 %
Elo rating difference: -27.85 Elo
Draw ratio: 46.40 %
*********************************************************
Standard deviation: 4.5105 % of the points of the match.
*********************************************************
Error bars were calculated with two-sided tests; values are rounded up to 0.01 Elo, or 0.01 in the case of K.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Calculation of likelihood of superiority (LOS) in a one-sided test:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
LOS (taking into account draws) is always calculated, if possible.
LOS (not taking into account draws) is only calculated if wins + loses < 16001.
LOS (average value) is calculated only when LOS (not taking into account draws) is calculated.
______________________________________________
LOS: 4.11 % (taking into account draws).
LOS: 4.24 % (not taking into account draws).
LOS: 4.17 % (average value).
______________________________________________
These values of LOS are rounded up to 0.01%
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 55 ms.
Thanks for using LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator. Press Enter to exit.
More less -28 ± 32 Elo after 250 games, with 95% confidence. LOS is below 4.3%, so in theory less than 1/23 with the data of this match. It looks like Rainbow is somewhat stuck, although in this level it is completely normal. I stay tuned.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
Another update coming shortly. Maybe it will have a few surprises.
