Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

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Graham Banks
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Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Graham Banks »

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Graham Banks
Posts: 44333
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2006 10:52 am
Location: Auckland, NZ

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Graham Banks »

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit                     3528  +16  -16  70.7% -131.1  1204
  Stockfish 060122 64-bit                 3525  +17  -17  72.4% -139.3  1098
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit                   3502  +13  -13  68.3% -110.7  1829
  Stockfish 13 64-bit                     3500  +19  -18  72.0% -146.3   929
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit             3499  +14  -14  76.2% -173.9  1716
  Stockfish 14 64-bit                     3497  +16  -16  70.1% -124.2  1167
  Stockfish 12 64-bit                     3472  +15  -15  74.5% -163.0  1612
  Stockfish+NNUE 150720 64-bit            3467  +26  -25  79.2% -202.0   558
  Stockfish 2019-12-10 64-bit             3438  +16  -16  76.6% -176.6  1372
  Stockfish 11 64-bit                     3430  +15  -15  73.4% -151.7  1549
  Stockfish 10 64-bit                     3383   +9   -9  74.6% -167.5  4812
  Stockfish 9 64-bit                      3363  +12  -12  71.4% -149.3  2565
  Stockfish 8 64-bit                      3299  +11  -11  69.7% -128.8  2722
  Stockfish 7 64-bit                      3244  +13  -13  67.3% -109.1  1889
  Stockfish 6 64-bit                      3224  +14  -14  67.5% -110.6  1577
  Stockfish 5 64-bit                      3189  +15  -15  64.4%  -88.5  1406
  Stockfish DD 64-bit                     3162  +15  -15  61.8%  -71.6  1373
  Stockfish 4 64-bit                      3119  +17  -17  58.0%  -48.2  1017
  Stockfish 3 64-bit                      3093  +16  -16  56.5%  -38.6  1186
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit                  3075  +17  -17  57.1%  -43.5  1065
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit                  3070  +20  -19  54.5%  -32.3   792
  Stockfish 2.2 64-bit                    3054  +35  -34  55.2%  -31.0   242
  Stockfish 2.2.2 32-bit                  3051  +13  -13  59.8%  -64.6  1759
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit                  3050  +15  -15  51.2%   -7.0  1258
  Stockfish 2.3.1 32-bit                  3038  +17  -17  57.2%  -44.3  1095
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit                  3032  +21  -20  60.0%  -68.3   763
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit                  3027  +23  -22  57.7%  -48.6   611
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit                    3026  +21  -21  61.2%  -77.5   761
  Stockfish 2.1.1 32-bit                  3023  +15  -15  61.9%  -79.5  1465
  Stockfish 2.0.1 32-bit                  3012  +16  -16  62.8%  -83.9  1302
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit                  3007  +22  -22  61.3%  -74.9   669
  Stockfish 1.9.1 32-bit                  3002  +15  -15  63.1%  -84.8  1382
  Stockfish 1.8 32-bit                    2990  +16  -16  63.6%  -86.4  1268
  Stockfish 1.7.1 32-bit                  2978  +15  -15  63.7%  -90.3  1402
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit                  2963  +20  -20  58.6%  -54.4   801
  Stockfish 1.6s 64-bit                   2950  +29  -29  52.0%  -14.5   346
  Stockfish 1.6.3 32-bit                  2934  +16  -16  60.0%  -63.3  1212
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit                  2886  +27  -27  54.4%  -27.5   428
  Stockfish 1.5.1 32-bit                  2862  +14  -14  54.5%  -29.1  1562
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit                    2848  +19  -19  53.1%  -17.6   844
  Stockfish 1.4 32-bit                    2830  +16  -16  53.6%  -24.1  1184
  Stockfish 1.3.1 32-bit                  2793  +25  -25  46.1%  +25.0   512
  Stockfish 1.2 Default                   2780  +21  -22  46.1%  +23.8   679
  Stockfish 1.01                          2746  +31  -31  50.5%   -5.5   322

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit 4CPU                3540  +17  -17  68.3% -109.7   994
  Stockfish 14 64-bit 4CPU                3539  +18  -18  66.9% -101.5   874
  Stockfish 13 64-bit 4CPU                3537  +17  -17  75.3% -164.9  1192
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit 4CPU        3537  +18  -17  74.5% -157.2  1088
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit 4CPU              3524  +16  -16  64.1%  -81.4  1054
  Stockfish 12 64-bit 4CPU                3510  +19  -19  71.8% -139.9   841
  Stockfish 2019-10-09 64-bit 4CPU        3485  +23  -23  74.7% -155.8   616
  Stockfish 11 64-bit 4CPU                3473  +19  -19  73.0% -143.1   840
  Stockfish 10 64-bit 4CPU                3457  +17  -16  73.4% -155.2  1227
  Stockfish 270918 64-bit 4CPU            3447  +28  -27  77.9% -188.8   457
  Stockfish 9 64-bit 4CPU                 3426  +15  -15  72.3% -152.9  1423
  Stockfish 8 64-bit 4CPU                 3373  +13  -13  64.8%  -94.7  1665
  Stockfish 7 64-bit 4CPU                 3323  +15  -15  66.2% -100.6  1364
  Stockfish 6 64-bit 4CPU                 3289  +13  -13  63.3%  -82.0  1704
  Stockfish 5 64-bit 4CPU                 3269  +14  -14  64.3%  -88.6  1663
  Stockfish DD 64-bit 4CPU                3230  +16  -16  61.5%  -69.9  1106
  Stockfish 4 64-bit 4CPU                 3202  +16  -16  59.1%  -53.6  1172
  Stockfish 3 64-bit 4CPU                 3163  +21  -21  56.0%  -35.3   663
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit 4CPU             3145  +16  -16  58.3%  -50.2  1205
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit 4CPU             3139  +19  -19  55.4%  -32.9   846
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit 4CPU             3122  +24  -24  56.4%  -40.1   514
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit 4CPU             3115  +21  -20  57.3%  -50.9   750
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit 4CPU             3109  +27  -27  54.7%  -29.4   406
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit 4CPU               3107  +17  -17  57.4%  -52.0  1058
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit 4CPU             3101  +18  -18  58.9%  -58.6   972
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit 4CPU             3034  +22  -22  57.0%  -45.9   667
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit 4CPU             2968  +24  -25  53.7%  -23.2   495
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit 4CPU               2946  +17  -17  54.2%  -28.4  1131
gbanksnz at gmail.com
lkaufman
Posts: 6236
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:15 am
Location: Maryland USA
Full name: Larry Kaufman

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by lkaufman »

Graham Banks wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 4:34 am

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit                     3528  +16  -16  70.7% -131.1  1204
  Stockfish 060122 64-bit                 3525  +17  -17  72.4% -139.3  1098
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit                   3502  +13  -13  68.3% -110.7  1829
  Stockfish 13 64-bit                     3500  +19  -18  72.0% -146.3   929
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit             3499  +14  -14  76.2% -173.9  1716
  Stockfish 14 64-bit                     3497  +16  -16  70.1% -124.2  1167
  Stockfish 12 64-bit                     3472  +15  -15  74.5% -163.0  1612
  Stockfish+NNUE 150720 64-bit            3467  +26  -25  79.2% -202.0   558
  Stockfish 2019-12-10 64-bit             3438  +16  -16  76.6% -176.6  1372
  Stockfish 11 64-bit                     3430  +15  -15  73.4% -151.7  1549
  Stockfish 10 64-bit                     3383   +9   -9  74.6% -167.5  4812
  Stockfish 9 64-bit                      3363  +12  -12  71.4% -149.3  2565
  Stockfish 8 64-bit                      3299  +11  -11  69.7% -128.8  2722
  Stockfish 7 64-bit                      3244  +13  -13  67.3% -109.1  1889
  Stockfish 6 64-bit                      3224  +14  -14  67.5% -110.6  1577
  Stockfish 5 64-bit                      3189  +15  -15  64.4%  -88.5  1406
  Stockfish DD 64-bit                     3162  +15  -15  61.8%  -71.6  1373
  Stockfish 4 64-bit                      3119  +17  -17  58.0%  -48.2  1017
  Stockfish 3 64-bit                      3093  +16  -16  56.5%  -38.6  1186
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit                  3075  +17  -17  57.1%  -43.5  1065
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit                  3070  +20  -19  54.5%  -32.3   792
  Stockfish 2.2 64-bit                    3054  +35  -34  55.2%  -31.0   242
  Stockfish 2.2.2 32-bit                  3051  +13  -13  59.8%  -64.6  1759
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit                  3050  +15  -15  51.2%   -7.0  1258
  Stockfish 2.3.1 32-bit                  3038  +17  -17  57.2%  -44.3  1095
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit                  3032  +21  -20  60.0%  -68.3   763
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit                  3027  +23  -22  57.7%  -48.6   611
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit                    3026  +21  -21  61.2%  -77.5   761
  Stockfish 2.1.1 32-bit                  3023  +15  -15  61.9%  -79.5  1465
  Stockfish 2.0.1 32-bit                  3012  +16  -16  62.8%  -83.9  1302
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit                  3007  +22  -22  61.3%  -74.9   669
  Stockfish 1.9.1 32-bit                  3002  +15  -15  63.1%  -84.8  1382
  Stockfish 1.8 32-bit                    2990  +16  -16  63.6%  -86.4  1268
  Stockfish 1.7.1 32-bit                  2978  +15  -15  63.7%  -90.3  1402
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit                  2963  +20  -20  58.6%  -54.4   801
  Stockfish 1.6s 64-bit                   2950  +29  -29  52.0%  -14.5   346
  Stockfish 1.6.3 32-bit                  2934  +16  -16  60.0%  -63.3  1212
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit                  2886  +27  -27  54.4%  -27.5   428
  Stockfish 1.5.1 32-bit                  2862  +14  -14  54.5%  -29.1  1562
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit                    2848  +19  -19  53.1%  -17.6   844
  Stockfish 1.4 32-bit                    2830  +16  -16  53.6%  -24.1  1184
  Stockfish 1.3.1 32-bit                  2793  +25  -25  46.1%  +25.0   512
  Stockfish 1.2 Default                   2780  +21  -22  46.1%  +23.8   679
  Stockfish 1.01                          2746  +31  -31  50.5%   -5.5   322

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit 4CPU                3540  +17  -17  68.3% -109.7   994
  Stockfish 14 64-bit 4CPU                3539  +18  -18  66.9% -101.5   874
  Stockfish 13 64-bit 4CPU                3537  +17  -17  75.3% -164.9  1192
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit 4CPU        3537  +18  -17  74.5% -157.2  1088
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit 4CPU              3524  +16  -16  64.1%  -81.4  1054
  Stockfish 12 64-bit 4CPU                3510  +19  -19  71.8% -139.9   841
  Stockfish 2019-10-09 64-bit 4CPU        3485  +23  -23  74.7% -155.8   616
  Stockfish 11 64-bit 4CPU                3473  +19  -19  73.0% -143.1   840
  Stockfish 10 64-bit 4CPU                3457  +17  -16  73.4% -155.2  1227
  Stockfish 270918 64-bit 4CPU            3447  +28  -27  77.9% -188.8   457
  Stockfish 9 64-bit 4CPU                 3426  +15  -15  72.3% -152.9  1423
  Stockfish 8 64-bit 4CPU                 3373  +13  -13  64.8%  -94.7  1665
  Stockfish 7 64-bit 4CPU                 3323  +15  -15  66.2% -100.6  1364
  Stockfish 6 64-bit 4CPU                 3289  +13  -13  63.3%  -82.0  1704
  Stockfish 5 64-bit 4CPU                 3269  +14  -14  64.3%  -88.6  1663
  Stockfish DD 64-bit 4CPU                3230  +16  -16  61.5%  -69.9  1106
  Stockfish 4 64-bit 4CPU                 3202  +16  -16  59.1%  -53.6  1172
  Stockfish 3 64-bit 4CPU                 3163  +21  -21  56.0%  -35.3   663
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit 4CPU             3145  +16  -16  58.3%  -50.2  1205
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit 4CPU             3139  +19  -19  55.4%  -32.9   846
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit 4CPU             3122  +24  -24  56.4%  -40.1   514
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit 4CPU             3115  +21  -20  57.3%  -50.9   750
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit 4CPU             3109  +27  -27  54.7%  -29.4   406
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit 4CPU               3107  +17  -17  57.4%  -52.0  1058
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit 4CPU             3101  +18  -18  58.9%  -58.6   972
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit 4CPU             3034  +22  -22  57.0%  -45.9   667
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit 4CPU             2968  +24  -25  53.7%  -23.2   495
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit 4CPU               2946  +17  -17  54.2%  -28.4  1131
Based on the progress from Stockfish 13 to 15 (3 elo) on 4 CPUs, we should expect to wait about forty years to see Stockfish climb from 3540 to 3600, but due to diminishing returns that is probably too optimistic. Seriously, I don't mean this as criticism of Stockfish or CCRL, I think it just means that with normal openings, reasonably long time controls, and four or more CPUs, chess between the top engines is almost a certain draw, and further Elo gains are almost impossible by these criteria. I think it is time to start a discussion of how chess Elo should be measured in the future; there are many possibilities that deserve consideration. It would be a shame for interest in computer chess to die out because it appears to have reached a ceiling. even though engines are far from perfect now, just good enough to draw from normal opening positions.
Komodo rules!
Uri Blass
Posts: 10822
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Uri Blass »

lkaufman wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 6:18 am
Graham Banks wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 4:34 am

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit                     3528  +16  -16  70.7% -131.1  1204
  Stockfish 060122 64-bit                 3525  +17  -17  72.4% -139.3  1098
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit                   3502  +13  -13  68.3% -110.7  1829
  Stockfish 13 64-bit                     3500  +19  -18  72.0% -146.3   929
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit             3499  +14  -14  76.2% -173.9  1716
  Stockfish 14 64-bit                     3497  +16  -16  70.1% -124.2  1167
  Stockfish 12 64-bit                     3472  +15  -15  74.5% -163.0  1612
  Stockfish+NNUE 150720 64-bit            3467  +26  -25  79.2% -202.0   558
  Stockfish 2019-12-10 64-bit             3438  +16  -16  76.6% -176.6  1372
  Stockfish 11 64-bit                     3430  +15  -15  73.4% -151.7  1549
  Stockfish 10 64-bit                     3383   +9   -9  74.6% -167.5  4812
  Stockfish 9 64-bit                      3363  +12  -12  71.4% -149.3  2565
  Stockfish 8 64-bit                      3299  +11  -11  69.7% -128.8  2722
  Stockfish 7 64-bit                      3244  +13  -13  67.3% -109.1  1889
  Stockfish 6 64-bit                      3224  +14  -14  67.5% -110.6  1577
  Stockfish 5 64-bit                      3189  +15  -15  64.4%  -88.5  1406
  Stockfish DD 64-bit                     3162  +15  -15  61.8%  -71.6  1373
  Stockfish 4 64-bit                      3119  +17  -17  58.0%  -48.2  1017
  Stockfish 3 64-bit                      3093  +16  -16  56.5%  -38.6  1186
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit                  3075  +17  -17  57.1%  -43.5  1065
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit                  3070  +20  -19  54.5%  -32.3   792
  Stockfish 2.2 64-bit                    3054  +35  -34  55.2%  -31.0   242
  Stockfish 2.2.2 32-bit                  3051  +13  -13  59.8%  -64.6  1759
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit                  3050  +15  -15  51.2%   -7.0  1258
  Stockfish 2.3.1 32-bit                  3038  +17  -17  57.2%  -44.3  1095
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit                  3032  +21  -20  60.0%  -68.3   763
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit                  3027  +23  -22  57.7%  -48.6   611
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit                    3026  +21  -21  61.2%  -77.5   761
  Stockfish 2.1.1 32-bit                  3023  +15  -15  61.9%  -79.5  1465
  Stockfish 2.0.1 32-bit                  3012  +16  -16  62.8%  -83.9  1302
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit                  3007  +22  -22  61.3%  -74.9   669
  Stockfish 1.9.1 32-bit                  3002  +15  -15  63.1%  -84.8  1382
  Stockfish 1.8 32-bit                    2990  +16  -16  63.6%  -86.4  1268
  Stockfish 1.7.1 32-bit                  2978  +15  -15  63.7%  -90.3  1402
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit                  2963  +20  -20  58.6%  -54.4   801
  Stockfish 1.6s 64-bit                   2950  +29  -29  52.0%  -14.5   346
  Stockfish 1.6.3 32-bit                  2934  +16  -16  60.0%  -63.3  1212
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit                  2886  +27  -27  54.4%  -27.5   428
  Stockfish 1.5.1 32-bit                  2862  +14  -14  54.5%  -29.1  1562
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit                    2848  +19  -19  53.1%  -17.6   844
  Stockfish 1.4 32-bit                    2830  +16  -16  53.6%  -24.1  1184
  Stockfish 1.3.1 32-bit                  2793  +25  -25  46.1%  +25.0   512
  Stockfish 1.2 Default                   2780  +21  -22  46.1%  +23.8   679
  Stockfish 1.01                          2746  +31  -31  50.5%   -5.5   322

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit 4CPU                3540  +17  -17  68.3% -109.7   994
  Stockfish 14 64-bit 4CPU                3539  +18  -18  66.9% -101.5   874
  Stockfish 13 64-bit 4CPU                3537  +17  -17  75.3% -164.9  1192
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit 4CPU        3537  +18  -17  74.5% -157.2  1088
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit 4CPU              3524  +16  -16  64.1%  -81.4  1054
  Stockfish 12 64-bit 4CPU                3510  +19  -19  71.8% -139.9   841
  Stockfish 2019-10-09 64-bit 4CPU        3485  +23  -23  74.7% -155.8   616
  Stockfish 11 64-bit 4CPU                3473  +19  -19  73.0% -143.1   840
  Stockfish 10 64-bit 4CPU                3457  +17  -16  73.4% -155.2  1227
  Stockfish 270918 64-bit 4CPU            3447  +28  -27  77.9% -188.8   457
  Stockfish 9 64-bit 4CPU                 3426  +15  -15  72.3% -152.9  1423
  Stockfish 8 64-bit 4CPU                 3373  +13  -13  64.8%  -94.7  1665
  Stockfish 7 64-bit 4CPU                 3323  +15  -15  66.2% -100.6  1364
  Stockfish 6 64-bit 4CPU                 3289  +13  -13  63.3%  -82.0  1704
  Stockfish 5 64-bit 4CPU                 3269  +14  -14  64.3%  -88.6  1663
  Stockfish DD 64-bit 4CPU                3230  +16  -16  61.5%  -69.9  1106
  Stockfish 4 64-bit 4CPU                 3202  +16  -16  59.1%  -53.6  1172
  Stockfish 3 64-bit 4CPU                 3163  +21  -21  56.0%  -35.3   663
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit 4CPU             3145  +16  -16  58.3%  -50.2  1205
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit 4CPU             3139  +19  -19  55.4%  -32.9   846
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit 4CPU             3122  +24  -24  56.4%  -40.1   514
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit 4CPU             3115  +21  -20  57.3%  -50.9   750
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit 4CPU             3109  +27  -27  54.7%  -29.4   406
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit 4CPU               3107  +17  -17  57.4%  -52.0  1058
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit 4CPU             3101  +18  -18  58.9%  -58.6   972
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit 4CPU             3034  +22  -22  57.0%  -45.9   667
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit 4CPU             2968  +24  -25  53.7%  -23.2   495
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit 4CPU               2946  +17  -17  54.2%  -28.4  1131
Based on the progress from Stockfish 13 to 15 (3 elo) on 4 CPUs, we should expect to wait about forty years to see Stockfish climb from 3540 to 3600, but due to diminishing returns that is probably too optimistic. Seriously, I don't mean this as criticism of Stockfish or CCRL, I think it just means that with normal openings, reasonably long time controls, and four or more CPUs, chess between the top engines is almost a certain draw, and further Elo gains are almost impossible by these criteria. I think it is time to start a discussion of how chess Elo should be measured in the future; there are many possibilities that deserve consideration. It would be a shame for interest in computer chess to die out because it appears to have reached a ceiling. even though engines are far from perfect now, just good enough to draw from normal opening positions.
I think that the problem is that stockfish does not try to improve in beating weaker engines.
Stockfish does not have a contempt.

I guess it is possible to get 60 elo improvement in the future in normal chess but making stockfish faster is not enough and you need to set traps for the opponents for this purpose.
lkaufman
Posts: 6236
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:15 am
Location: Maryland USA
Full name: Larry Kaufman

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by lkaufman »

Uri Blass wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 8:47 am
lkaufman wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 6:18 am
Graham Banks wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 4:34 am

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit                     3528  +16  -16  70.7% -131.1  1204
  Stockfish 060122 64-bit                 3525  +17  -17  72.4% -139.3  1098
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit                   3502  +13  -13  68.3% -110.7  1829
  Stockfish 13 64-bit                     3500  +19  -18  72.0% -146.3   929
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit             3499  +14  -14  76.2% -173.9  1716
  Stockfish 14 64-bit                     3497  +16  -16  70.1% -124.2  1167
  Stockfish 12 64-bit                     3472  +15  -15  74.5% -163.0  1612
  Stockfish+NNUE 150720 64-bit            3467  +26  -25  79.2% -202.0   558
  Stockfish 2019-12-10 64-bit             3438  +16  -16  76.6% -176.6  1372
  Stockfish 11 64-bit                     3430  +15  -15  73.4% -151.7  1549
  Stockfish 10 64-bit                     3383   +9   -9  74.6% -167.5  4812
  Stockfish 9 64-bit                      3363  +12  -12  71.4% -149.3  2565
  Stockfish 8 64-bit                      3299  +11  -11  69.7% -128.8  2722
  Stockfish 7 64-bit                      3244  +13  -13  67.3% -109.1  1889
  Stockfish 6 64-bit                      3224  +14  -14  67.5% -110.6  1577
  Stockfish 5 64-bit                      3189  +15  -15  64.4%  -88.5  1406
  Stockfish DD 64-bit                     3162  +15  -15  61.8%  -71.6  1373
  Stockfish 4 64-bit                      3119  +17  -17  58.0%  -48.2  1017
  Stockfish 3 64-bit                      3093  +16  -16  56.5%  -38.6  1186
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit                  3075  +17  -17  57.1%  -43.5  1065
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit                  3070  +20  -19  54.5%  -32.3   792
  Stockfish 2.2 64-bit                    3054  +35  -34  55.2%  -31.0   242
  Stockfish 2.2.2 32-bit                  3051  +13  -13  59.8%  -64.6  1759
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit                  3050  +15  -15  51.2%   -7.0  1258
  Stockfish 2.3.1 32-bit                  3038  +17  -17  57.2%  -44.3  1095
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit                  3032  +21  -20  60.0%  -68.3   763
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit                  3027  +23  -22  57.7%  -48.6   611
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit                    3026  +21  -21  61.2%  -77.5   761
  Stockfish 2.1.1 32-bit                  3023  +15  -15  61.9%  -79.5  1465
  Stockfish 2.0.1 32-bit                  3012  +16  -16  62.8%  -83.9  1302
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit                  3007  +22  -22  61.3%  -74.9   669
  Stockfish 1.9.1 32-bit                  3002  +15  -15  63.1%  -84.8  1382
  Stockfish 1.8 32-bit                    2990  +16  -16  63.6%  -86.4  1268
  Stockfish 1.7.1 32-bit                  2978  +15  -15  63.7%  -90.3  1402
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit                  2963  +20  -20  58.6%  -54.4   801
  Stockfish 1.6s 64-bit                   2950  +29  -29  52.0%  -14.5   346
  Stockfish 1.6.3 32-bit                  2934  +16  -16  60.0%  -63.3  1212
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit                  2886  +27  -27  54.4%  -27.5   428
  Stockfish 1.5.1 32-bit                  2862  +14  -14  54.5%  -29.1  1562
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit                    2848  +19  -19  53.1%  -17.6   844
  Stockfish 1.4 32-bit                    2830  +16  -16  53.6%  -24.1  1184
  Stockfish 1.3.1 32-bit                  2793  +25  -25  46.1%  +25.0   512
  Stockfish 1.2 Default                   2780  +21  -22  46.1%  +23.8   679
  Stockfish 1.01                          2746  +31  -31  50.5%   -5.5   322

Code: Select all

CCRL 40/15 Rating List - Custom engine selection
1394344 games played by 3092 programs, run by 25 testers
Ponder off, General books (up to 12 moves), 3-4-5 piece EGTB
Time control: Equivalent to 40 moves in 15 minutes on an Intel i7-4770k.
Computed on May 21, 2022 with Bayeselo based on 1'394'344 games
Tested by CCRL team, 2005-2022, http://ccrl.chessdom.com/ccrl/4040/

Rank                 Engine                   Elo   +    -   Score  AvOp  Games
1 Stockfish 15 64-bit 4CPU                3540  +17  -17  68.3% -109.7   994
  Stockfish 14 64-bit 4CPU                3539  +18  -18  66.9% -101.5   874
  Stockfish 13 64-bit 4CPU                3537  +17  -17  75.3% -164.9  1192
  Stockfish 2021-01-11 64-bit 4CPU        3537  +18  -17  74.5% -157.2  1088
  Stockfish 14.1 64-bit 4CPU              3524  +16  -16  64.1%  -81.4  1054
  Stockfish 12 64-bit 4CPU                3510  +19  -19  71.8% -139.9   841
  Stockfish 2019-10-09 64-bit 4CPU        3485  +23  -23  74.7% -155.8   616
  Stockfish 11 64-bit 4CPU                3473  +19  -19  73.0% -143.1   840
  Stockfish 10 64-bit 4CPU                3457  +17  -16  73.4% -155.2  1227
  Stockfish 270918 64-bit 4CPU            3447  +28  -27  77.9% -188.8   457
  Stockfish 9 64-bit 4CPU                 3426  +15  -15  72.3% -152.9  1423
  Stockfish 8 64-bit 4CPU                 3373  +13  -13  64.8%  -94.7  1665
  Stockfish 7 64-bit 4CPU                 3323  +15  -15  66.2% -100.6  1364
  Stockfish 6 64-bit 4CPU                 3289  +13  -13  63.3%  -82.0  1704
  Stockfish 5 64-bit 4CPU                 3269  +14  -14  64.3%  -88.6  1663
  Stockfish DD 64-bit 4CPU                3230  +16  -16  61.5%  -69.9  1106
  Stockfish 4 64-bit 4CPU                 3202  +16  -16  59.1%  -53.6  1172
  Stockfish 3 64-bit 4CPU                 3163  +21  -21  56.0%  -35.3   663
  Stockfish 2.2.2 64-bit 4CPU             3145  +16  -16  58.3%  -50.2  1205
  Stockfish 2.3.1 64-bit 4CPU             3139  +19  -19  55.4%  -32.9   846
  Stockfish 2.0.1 64-bit 4CPU             3122  +24  -24  56.4%  -40.1   514
  Stockfish 1.9.1 64-bit 4CPU             3115  +21  -20  57.3%  -50.9   750
  Stockfish 2.1.1 64-bit 4CPU             3109  +27  -27  54.7%  -29.4   406
  Stockfish 1.8 64-bit 4CPU               3107  +17  -17  57.4%  -52.0  1058
  Stockfish 1.7.1 64-bit 4CPU             3101  +18  -18  58.9%  -58.6   972
  Stockfish 1.6.3 64-bit 4CPU             3034  +22  -22  57.0%  -45.9   667
  Stockfish 1.5.1 64-bit 4CPU             2968  +24  -25  53.7%  -23.2   495
  Stockfish 1.4 64-bit 4CPU               2946  +17  -17  54.2%  -28.4  1131
Based on the progress from Stockfish 13 to 15 (3 elo) on 4 CPUs, we should expect to wait about forty years to see Stockfish climb from 3540 to 3600, but due to diminishing returns that is probably too optimistic. Seriously, I don't mean this as criticism of Stockfish or CCRL, I think it just means that with normal openings, reasonably long time controls, and four or more CPUs, chess between the top engines is almost a certain draw, and further Elo gains are almost impossible by these criteria. I think it is time to start a discussion of how chess Elo should be measured in the future; there are many possibilities that deserve consideration. It would be a shame for interest in computer chess to die out because it appears to have reached a ceiling. even though engines are far from perfect now, just good enough to draw from normal opening positions.
I think that the problem is that stockfish does not try to improve in beating weaker engines.
Stockfish does not have a contempt.

I guess it is possible to get 60 elo improvement in the future in normal chess but making stockfish faster is not enough and you need to set traps for the opponents for this purpose.
That might raise the performance against weak engines, but when it is playing engines close to its own strength, setting traps isn't productive, you have to clearly outsearch your opponent for this to work. So whether it would raise the rating much would depend on the choice of opponents by the tester.
Komodo rules!
Frank Quisinsky
Posts: 6966
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:16 pm
Location: Gutweiler, Germany
Full name: Frank Quisinsky

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Frank Quisinsky »

Hi Larry,

at first:
Draw quote is to high.
In my list Stockfish from end of the year is around 10 Elo stronger as Stockfish 15.
Same for versions 01.04, 12.04 ...

My 80min games on 1 core with 4.4Ghz on much more modern hardware is around the same as CCRL on 4 cores.

at second:
Most testers have an other problem in testing engines?

Example:
SF 14 test against the programs at this time are available ...
SF 15 test against the programs at this time are available ...

A big problem in NN times!!
Better is to test vs. the same group of engines in Neural Network times because the Elo difference is not clear.

If not ... Elo's for best programs goes higher and higher in a list.
The reasons that it make no sense to hold a rating list a long time on life.
My own is now after a half year completly outdated.

Better as better is ...
Tourneys between TOP-50, or TOP-40 each one against each other.
More excactly ratings are not possible.

Best
Frank

Next week ...
SF last version without NN
Komodo last version without NN
as Gauntlet ...

Both around vs. the same group of opponents!
Very easy to see that the different for Stockfish 15 (before NN to current version) is not higher as around 180 Elo.
Same for Dragon by Komodo 3 and a proof that it make no sense to hold all the old versions of engines in one rating list.
Frank Quisinsky
Posts: 6966
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:16 pm
Location: Gutweiler, Germany
Full name: Frank Quisinsky

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Frank Quisinsky »

Very interesting, or?

With all the new NN files from currently available NN engines an optimaztion vs. current others engines.
More or less the main problem for a rating list.

But after all ...
A good chance for all the others in comparing to Stockfish or Komodo.
Wasp to Stockfish for 2 years ... the different is around 400 Elo, today a bit lesser as 250 Elo.
The same for a all the others ...

In reality the "weaker engines" in comparing to Stockfish have a much higher performance with NN files and the big lead melts away.
Frank Quisinsky
Posts: 6966
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:16 pm
Location: Gutweiler, Germany
Full name: Frank Quisinsky

Re: Stockfish 15 64-bit 1CPU and 4CPU Gauntlets for CCRL 40/15

Post by Frank Quisinsky »

Like that a lot because the style of the engine goes more and more in foreground.
Elo of engine is more and more not longer interesting!!

I can't build the opinion that for Stockfish people it's a long time project and we can not speaking about it how much Stockfish will be better in 5 years. Because it is not very interesting. In 5 years we have more as 20 programs which are very in the near of Stockfish and the mythos Stockfish disintegrates.

Much more important is to try to optimaze length of games and to work on the style of engine!

Programs like Komodo, Berserk, Koivisto and many others have a much to high move average for draws. To fight for each point is very boring if the game situation is very clear. Others programs play that in perfection, a good example is Wasp. If Wasp can see the game is 100% draw Wasp try to finish the game a.s.a.p..

And all the long games over 150 moves will be killed with a very fine work in programmings!