CPU vs GPU Which will dominate in the future?

[Chessqueen]

https://tcec-chess.com/

[Werewolf]

Obviously neither will "dominate" because there's not enough head-room left in chess for the deficiencies of MCTS or AB to be exposed. All you'll see is an increasing draw rate by the top engines and more and more desperate openings to try to keep the game alive.

[chessica]

https://tcec-chess.com/

In a market economy, price is crucial.

[AndrewGrant]

Obviously neither will "dominate" because there's not enough head-room left in chess for the deficiencies of MCTS or AB to be exposed. All you'll see is an increasing draw rate by the top engines and more and more desperate openings to try to keep the game alive.

Well Stockfish manages 70 to 100 elo margins over Leela at some CCC events. That is certainly quite a bit of head-room.

[towforce]

In a market economy, price is crucial.

Rule doesn't apply to luxury goods!

However, in a "normal" market, the following cycle tends to occur (there are other types of disruption, but this is the most common):

1. Market becomes dominated by small number of players

2. The products gradually become more "feature rich" (more elaborate)

3. The disruptor comes in with a new product that's "good enough" and costs less

4. This becomes the new standard. Loop back to step 1

Unfortunately, this hasn't happened to Windows. The Chromebook should have removed the Windows laptop from most homes, but people are attached to Windows for reasons that don't stand up to scrutiny (I accept that there are genuine use-cases where a Chromebook would be unsuitable).

In chess, though, the process is happening: I personally find that Chess.com meets my chess requirements handily, even though I know that its bots/engines/analysis tools aren't as good as Stockfish on an expensive graphics card.

Going forward, once CPUs are able to play unbeatable chess quickly, there will be no need to buy a GPU - so in the chess world, the CPU will eventually be the winner.

[Werewolf]

Obviously neither will "dominate" because there's not enough head-room left in chess for the deficiencies of MCTS or AB to be exposed. All you'll see is an increasing draw rate by the top engines and more and more desperate openings to try to keep the game alive.

Well Stockfish manages 70 to 100 elo margins over Leela at some CCC events. That is certainly quite a bit of head-room.

That is quite a bit. But as time goes on and the engines are improved, as hardware gets faster, as TC gets longer - especially if all 3 are applied - then the Elo difference will drop.

I don't know if Chessbase were right to say no engine will ever surpass 4000 Elo, but that estimate must be true in principle.