Carlsen or Nepomniachtchi – Who will win?

[Chessqueen]

Carlsen is a second tier of champions, seriously?
Carlsen would wipe a floor with every single world champion in history taken at their peak.
The same as results from athletes 60 years ago are a joke compared to today, or of soccer players or tennis player or any other, chess players of today are far superior than chess players from the past. No it's not just rating inflation. It's preparation, training, better theory, chess skills development, access to better food, clean water, better health conditions, plus much tougher field, they all contribute to better intellect and better skill.

While most of what you wrote is not false, I stand by my opinion: what makes a great champion is his level of dominance, and Carlsen is far from what Kasparov, and especially Fisher achieved. Otherwise we could hardly compare eras. [Otoh, I don't think there is hardly a difference of "intellect" -- forays in history reveal that people were as intelligent than they are today -- just read Montaillou, e.g.]

You mention here tennis: while there is no doubt that Novak Djokovic would beat Rod Laver 6-0, 6-0, what makes Novak the greatest player of all time are his results, and the results of his contemporaries, not their mastery of the sport.

So, yes, I am very serious.

What doesn't it mean to dominate competition? Carlsen is undisputed world champion already for 8 years in a row and all that at age of 30(31). He became the youngest nr. 1 in history and has this ranking for more than 10 years in a row. No other chess player in the history of the game was undisputed world number 1 player for 10 years at age of 30.
Carlsen is, to use tennis equivalent, Bjorn Borg of chess. But compared to Bjorn Borg, he didn't retire at age of 25.
Fisher is one time wonder that had 5 good chess years and that's it, and Carlsen is already in many stats better than Kasparov when he was his age. It is highly probable that Carlsen is gonna break virtually any relevant chess record by age of 40.
So yes, you have absolutely no argument when you claim that Carlsen is second tier coz he's already in top 3 chess players in the history of the game, and almost certainly will become an undisputed GOAT in chess.

Milos your logic is correct, and I will add my 2 cents Carlsen is so good in comparison to GM Nepo that he will NOT need more than 12 games, whereas Caruana at least held him even for 12 classical games. In order to beat Carlsen the next world Challenger need to get Caruana, and Anand in his team unless Caruana qualify again next year.

Note: I believe all his previous challengers can gang against Carlsen allowing them to discuss each move and Carlsen will still beat them all with their collected thoughts during a championship match.

[Cornfed]

Firouzja already qualified to the Candidates' Tournament next year. That is a tremendous achievement. Winning that tournament will not be easy, but he has a decent chance. He is currently higher by rating than all other participants.

And do you offer a percentage chance he will qualify to play (presumably) Magnus. I still think no more than 15% chance. Ratings are not the same as engines. He is too young probably.

Ratings are not the same as engines but they get ratings the same way as engines do by competing.

A clear difference is that the same version of an individual Engine has a pretty stable rating from one tourney to the next. Human ratings are more 'snapshots in time' (even more so with the 'live rating')...they can vary tournament to tournament.

An example using Firouzaj: I believe he pocketed a bunch of rating points in the recent Olympiad. He could drop just as many in his next tournament. Of course, when you get into a select group who get invited to the same tournaments where they play one another all the time...you just need to finish a hair above 50% to 'maintain' that rating. Ulf Anderson did that for years.

[Cornfed]

Carlsen is a second tier of champions, seriously?
Carlsen would wipe a floor with every single world champion in history taken at their peak.
The same as results from athletes 60 years ago are a joke compared to today, or of soccer players or tennis player or any other, chess players of today are far superior than chess players from the past. No it's not just rating inflation. It's preparation, training, better theory, chess skills development, access to better food, clean water, better health conditions, plus much tougher field, they all contribute to better intellect and better skill.

One bit of hyperbole deserves another? Carlsen is very impressive, no doubt, but “wipe a floor?” I wouldn’t want to bet against Gary at his peak and with all the modern resources. Anand and Kramnik also would be very formidable. And who knows what phenoms like Fisher or Capablanca could bring to the table with all the modern conveniences.

Frankly, any one of the champions from the Soviet era (with the requisite support of an army of hard bitten Soviet GM’s packing leela and the latest NNUE, and the backing of the Soviet state) would be a nightmare.

This hypothetical "all modern resources" premise is the mother of all screw ups. One doesn't become suddenly much better because you gave them access to modern resources. Chess is a game of pattern matching and memory....

+1 to Milos.

'all modern resources'...totally overlooks the way Carlsen plays. He AVOIDS a lot of those 'modern resources' and 'book lines' and just plays simple...gets 'a game'...and then outplays his opponents. He has an awesome memory but doesn't litter it was memorizing tons of theory like many do today. He's 'A NATURAL' to use a sporting term.

I wager that even Kasparov (as great as he was against the players of his time) at his height with his army of helpers and ability to use computers to his advantage as he clearly did...would be beaten by Magnus because Magnus is even more of a 'natural' than a Karpov or even Capa for this day. He's Karpov on steroids. He just understands and plays chess better. To use a term I hate...he's the closest human to being an Alpha Zero among modern players while the rest are largely AB.

[dkappe]

t was your hypothetical, so I get to have an army of Soviet GM’s who have learned how to use ChessBase and the newest engines and the old Soviet state lurking in the background and spiking Magnus’ beverages.

Again, that wouldn't work in this millennium.

It would in this hypothetical.

[Chessqueen]

Carlsen is a second tier of champions, seriously?
Carlsen would wipe a floor with every single world champion in history taken at their peak.
The same as results from athletes 60 years ago are a joke compared to today, or of soccer players or tennis player or any other, chess players of today are far superior than chess players from the past. No it's not just rating inflation. It's preparation, training, better theory, chess skills development, access to better food, clean water, better health conditions, plus much tougher field, they all contribute to better intellect and better skill.

One bit of hyperbole deserves another? Carlsen is very impressive, no doubt, but “wipe a floor?” I wouldn’t want to bet against Gary at his peak and with all the modern resources. Anand and Kramnik also would be very formidable. And who knows what phenoms like Fisher or Capablanca could bring to the table with all the modern conveniences.

Frankly, any one of the champions from the Soviet era (with the requisite support of an army of hard bitten Soviet GM’s packing leela and the latest NNUE, and the backing of the Soviet state) would be a nightmare.

This hypothetical "all modern resources" premise is the mother of all screw ups. One doesn't become suddenly much better because you gave them access to modern resources. Chess is a game of pattern matching and memory....

+1 to Milos.

'all modern resources'...totally overlooks the way Carlsen plays. He AVOIDS a lot of those 'modern resources' and 'book lines' and just plays simple...gets 'a game'...and then outplays his opponents. He has an awesome memory but doesn't litter it was memorizing tons of theory like many do today. He's 'A NATURAL' to use a sporting term.

I wager that even Kasparov (as great as he was against the players of his time) at his height with his army of helpers and ability to use computers to his advantage as he clearly did...would be beaten by Magnus because Magnus is even more of a 'natural' than a Karpov or even Capa for this day. He's Karpov on steroids. He just understands and plays chess better. To use a term I hate...he's the closest human to being an Alpha Zero among modern players while the rest are largely AB.

Once they asked Magnus Carlsen if he could had beaten Alekhine during his best year, and Carlsen answered "I can NOT make a judgement of that only God would know the answer."

[supersharp77]

Carlsen is a second tier of champions, seriously?
Carlsen would wipe a floor with every single world champion in history taken at their peak.
The same as results from athletes 60 years ago are a joke compared to today, or of soccer players or tennis player or any other, chess players of today are far superior than chess players from the past. No it's not just rating inflation. It's preparation, training, better theory, chess skills development, access to better food, clean water, better health conditions, plus much tougher field, they all contribute to better intellect and better skill.

While most of what you wrote is not false, I stand by my opinion: what makes a great champion is his level of dominance, and Carlsen is far from what Kasparov, and especially Fisher achieved. Otherwise we could hardly compare eras. [Otoh, I don't think there is hardly a difference of "intellect" -- forays in history reveal that people were as intelligent than they are today -- just read Montaillou, e.g.]

You mention here tennis: while there is no doubt that Novak Djokovic would beat Rod Laver 6-0, 6-0, what makes Novak the greatest player of all time are his results, and the results of his contemporaries, not their mastery of the sport.

So, yes, I am very serious.

What doesn't it mean to dominate competition? Carlsen is undisputed world champion already for 8 years in a row and all that at age of 30(31). He became the youngest nr. 1 in history and has this ranking for more than 10 years in a row. No other chess player in the history of the game was undisputed world number 1 player for 10 years at age of 30.
Carlsen is, to use tennis equivalent, Bjorn Borg of chess. But compared to Bjorn Borg, he didn't retire at age of 25.
Fisher is one time wonder that had 5 good chess years and that's it, and Carlsen is already in many stats better than Kasparov when he was his age. It is highly probable that Carlsen is gonna break virtually any relevant chess record by age of 40.
So yes, you have absolutely no argument when you claim that Carlsen is second tier coz he's already in top 3 chess players in the history of the game, and almost certainly will become an undisputed GOAT in chess.

Milos your logic is correct, and I will add my 2 cents Carlsen is so good in comparison to GM Nepo that he will NOT need more than 12 games, whereas Caruana at least held him even for 12 classical games. In order to beat Carlsen the next world Challenger need to get Caruana, and Anand in his team unless Caruana qualify again next year.

Note: I believe all his previous challengers can gang against Carlsen allowing them to discuss each move and Carlsen will still beat them all with their collected thoughts during a championship match.

While I do like Carlsen and Think he is a talented young man FIDE (Russian Crooks) have so disrupted and manipulated the current cycle of Qualification for the Worlds Championship as to make what Calsen is doing somewhat irrelevent? (I would check his overall strength by checking his overall record against former world champions & or elite Super GM's) Why do I say that? ...Well it goes back awhile to the confusion/controversy (still ongoing) about how a Challenger for the Worlds Championshio match should be selected. There used to be a 20 player 4RR tournament (quite effective) that selected the challenger Then There was the system of KO matches that decided who the challenger was with Fischer winning a series of 4-5 matches to get the title (Quite a difficult get) Then there were Korchnoi's claims of manipulation by FIDE/Russians during his matches with Karpov & others..Then there was the controversy of the Karpov vs Kasparov matches with people questioning the length of the matches (too long) ..Then There was the uproar created when Kasparov got the title then FIDE (Russian Federation) Broke the rules & ordered an immediate rematch with Karpov...Then after obtaining the title Kasparov defended then left to form the PCA & the WCA counter organizations to the FIDE Chess Monopoly...Enter Kramnik who beat Kasparov then lost title to Anand...Leading us to Carlsen...The problem with The Last 6-7 FIDE cycles is its become a Private club of 8-20 players with top invites difficult or impossible to get with a ever increasing pool of to players at the GM Level coming for all over the Globe..(China..Indonesia..Vietnam...South America..Mongolia...Middle East ..Africa...Etc...Womens chess has exploded also..Internet chess has exploded...For the candidates tourney A recent idea is to increase the pool of players competing.....Make it a 14 Round Swiss Tourney with the top 4 players entered in a KO match with the winner moving on to face the Champion (Carlsen) Top 30 rated players get auto entry to the candidates tourney...All ex World Champions get a automatic wild card entry (Golden Ticket) Kasparov..Ponomariov..Topalov...Khalifman...Anand... are in...Shirov..Ivanchuk..Gelfand..Aronian...Morozevich...Leko would get wild cards...Grishuk & Rajabov would get invites...then 2 internet winners would qualify along with zonal champs and 2-4 womens entries (Judit Polgar)....The winner of the KO matches would move on to the Championship to face Carlsen...I like Nepo but he has no real experience for such a high level WC match against Carlsen at this time...he seems clearly out of his depth currently...The Chess cycle as currently constructed (8 young guys who turnover nearly 100% every year or two will not produce proper candidates long term) Look at Caruana he should have been able to have that second match w Carlsen but the format worked against him..same with Karjakin....

[Chessqueen]

[pgn]
[Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.05"]
[Round "8.1"]
[White "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Black "Nepomniachtchi, Ian"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "C43"]
[WhiteElo "2855"]
[BlackElo "2782"]
[Annotator "ChessBase"]
[PlyCount "91"]
[EventDate "2021.11.25"]
[EventType "match"]
[EventCountry "UAE"]
[SourceTitle "playchess.com"]
[Source "ChessBase"]
[SourceQuality "1"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. e4 {0} e5 {11} 2. Nf3 {12} Nf6 {6} 3. d4 {5} Nxe4 {11} 4. Bd3 {8} d5 {8} 5.
Nxe5 {8} Nd7 {18} 6. Nxd7 {16} Bxd7 {8} 7. Nd2 {5} Nxd2 {71} 8. Bxd2 {7} Bd6 {
185} 9. O-O {174} h5 {1009} 10. Qe1+ {2441} Kf8 {499} 11. Bb4 {65} Qe7 {55} 12.
Bxd6 {249} Qxd6 {18} 13. Qd2 {37} Re8 {201} 14. Rae1 {147} Rh6 {13} 15. Qg5 {
185} c6 {360} 16. Rxe8+ {707} Bxe8 {15} 17. Re1 {31} Qf6 {86} 18. Qe3 {373} Bd7
{48} 19. h3 {197} h4 {205} 20. c4 {93} dxc4 {888} 21. Bxc4 {16} b5 {244} (21...
a6 $11 {should be considered.}) 22. Qa3+ $1 {335} Kg8 {537 [#]} 23. Qxa7 $1 {69
} Qd8 {529 [#]} 24. Bb3 $1 {169} Rd6 {139} (24... Rh5 $16 25. Re4 Rf5) 25. Re4
{576} Be6 {378} 26. Bxe6 {16} Rxe6 {3} 27. Rxe6 {28} fxe6 {2} 28. Qc5 {159} Qa5
{103} 29. Qxc6 {20} Qe1+ {45} 30. Kh2 {2} Qxf2 {16} 31. Qxe6+ {16} Kh7 {81} 32.
Qe4+ {57} Kg8 {0} 33. b3 {262} Qxa2 {180} 34. Qe8+ {8} Kh7 {3} 35. Qxb5 {17}
Qf2 {80} 36. Qe5 {92} Qb2 {6} 37. Qe4+ {79} Kg8 {4} 38. Qd3 {195} (38. Qe8+
$142 Kh7 39. Qh5+ Kg8 40. Qxh4) 38... Qf2 {31} 39. Qc3 {31} Qf4+ {35} 40. Kg1 {
0} Kh7 {0} 41. Qd3+ {576} g6 {117} 42. Qd1 {282} Qe3+ {186} 43. Kh1 {8} g5 {12}
44. d5 $18 {319} g4 {24} 45. hxg4 {9} h3 {5} 46. Qf3 {25} 1-0
[/pgn]

This is how this Opening should be played, noticed how on move 7. Nd2 Nf6 the Knight was retrieved back to f6 and NOT helping the White pieces to develop the Bishop while taking the Knight on 8. Bxd2!

[pgn][Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.05"]
[Round "8.1"]
[White "Dragon-2.5-64bit-avx2"]
[Black "Stockfish_14_x64_bmi2"]
[Result "1/2 1/2"]
[BlackElo "3546"]
[ECO "C43"]
[Opening "Russian Game"]
[Variation "Modern Attack, 3...Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 5.Nxe5 Nd7 6.Nxd7"]
[WhiteElo "3516"]
[TimeControl "3600+3"]
[Termination "normal"]
[PlyCount "244"]
[WhiteType "program"]
[BlackType "program"]

1. e4 {0} e5 {11} 2. Nf3 {12} Nf6 {6} 3. d4 {5} Nxe4 {11} 4. Bd3 {8} d5 {8}
5. Nxe5 {8} Nd7 {18} 6. Nxd7 {16} Bxd7 {8} 7. Nd2 {5} Nf6 8. O-O Be7 9. h3
O-O 10. Nf3 c5 11. c3 Qc7 12. Bc2 Rfe8 13. Bg5 h6 14. Be3 b6 15. Ne5 Bc6
16. Bf4 Bd6 17. Re1 Bb7 18. Qd3 Re6 19. Re3 Ba6 20. Qd1 Ne4 21. Bb3 c4 22.
Bc2 Rae8 23. Qf3 Rf6 24. h4 Bc8 25. Rae1 b5 26. g3 Rfe6 27. R3e2 a5 28. a3
b4 29. axb4 axb4 30. cxb4 Qb7 31. Ba4 Bxe5 32. dxe5 Rd8 33. Rd1 Qxb4 34.
Bc2 Qb6 35. Ree1 f5 36. exf6 Nxf6 37. b3 Rxe1+ 38. Rxe1 Qb4 39. Qd1 Bg4 40.
Qd2 Qxd2 41. Bxd2 Ne4 42. Bf4 g5 43. hxg5 hxg5 44. Bc1 c3 45. Re3 Nd2 46.
Rxc3 Nf3+ 47. Kg2 Re8 48. Rxf3 Bxf3+ 49. Kxf3 Rc8 50. Kg4 Rxc2 51. Be3 Kf7
52. Kxg5 Ke6 53. f4 Rc3 54. f5+ Kd7 55. Kf4 Rxb3 56. Bc5 Rc3 57. Bd4 Rd3
58. Ke5 Rxg3 59. Kxd5 Rf3 60. Ke4 Ra3 61. Bh8 Ra4+ 62. Ke5 Ra8 63. Bf6 Ra5+
64. Kf4 Kd6 65. Kg5 Kd5 66. Bd8 Rb5 67. Kg6 Rb1 68. Bc7 Kc6 69. Be5 Kd5 70.
Bg7 Rb6+ 71. Kh5 Ra6 72. Kg5 Rc6 73. Kh5 Kd6 74. Kg5 Kd5 75. Bh6 Rc8 76.
Kg6 Rc3 77. Bg7 Rf3 78. Bh6 Rb3 79. Bg7 Rf3 80. Bh6 Ra3 81. Bg7 Rg3+ 82.
Kf7 Rb3 83. Bf8 Rb6 84. f6 Rb7+ 85. Be7 Rb8 86. Bf8 Ke5 87. Be7 Rc8 88. Bb4
Rc7+ 89. Be7 Kd5 90. Kg8 Rc8+ 91. Kf7 Ke5 92. Ba3 Rc7+ 93. Be7 Ra7 94. Kg8
Ra8+ 95. Kf7 Kd5 96. Bb4 Ra7+ 97. Be7 Rc7 98. Kg8 Rc8+ 99. Kf7 Ra8 100. Bb4
Ra7+ 101. Be7 Ke5 102. Kg8 Ra8+ 103. Kf7 Kf5 104. Bb4 Rb8 105. Be7 Rb7 106.
Kg8 Rb8+ 107. Kf7 Ra8 108. Bb4 Ra1 109. Bf8 Rh1 110. Bg7 Rf1 111. Bf8 Rh1
112. Bg7 Rb1 113. Bf8 Rf1 114. Bd6 Rh1 115. Bf8 Rh2 116. Bg7 Ra2 117. Bf8
Ra7+ 118. Be7 Rc7 119. Kg8 Rc8+ 120. Kf7 Rc7 121. Kg8 Rc8+ 122. Kf7 Rc7
{3-fold repetition} 1/2[/pgn]

[AdminX]

[pgn]
[Event "FIDE World Championship 2021"]
[Site "Dubai"]
[Date "2021.12.07"]
[Round "9.1"]
[White "Nepomniachtchi, Ian"]
[Black "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "A13"]
[WhiteElo "2782"]
[BlackElo "2855"]
[Annotator "ChessBase"]
[PlyCount "78"]
[EventDate "2021.11.25"]
[EventType "match"]
[EventCountry "UAE"]
[SourceTitle "playchess.com"]
[Source "ChessBase"]
[SourceQuality "1"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. c4 {0} e6 {74} 2. g3 {10} d5 {49} 3. Bg2 {6} d4 {233} 4. Nf3 {191} Nc6 {63}
5. O-O {53} Bc5 {88} 6. d3 {52} Nf6 {580} 7. Nbd2 {118} a5 {438} 8. Nb3 {46}
Be7 {108} 9. e3 $1 {57} dxe3 $1 {268} 10. Bxe3 {21} Ng4 {201} 11. Bc5 {93} O-O
{569} 12. d4 {1478} a4 {234} 13. Bxe7 {20} Qxe7 {21} 14. Nc5 {67} a3 {239} 15.
bxa3 {316} (15. b4 $14 {might be stronger.}) 15... Rd8 {295} 16. Nb3 {135} Nf6
{284} 17. Re1 {77} Qxa3 {380} 18. Qe2 {121} h6 {143} 19. h4 {34} Bd7 {739} 20.
Ne5 {555} Be8 {53} 21. Qe3 {13} Qb4 {547} 22. Reb1 {336} Nxe5 {261} (22... Ra3
$5) 23. dxe5 {58} Ng4 {4} 24. Qe1 {46} Qxe1+ $1 {264} ({But not} 24... Qxc4 25.
f3 $16) 25. Rxe1 {16} h5 {7} 26. Bxb7 {34} Ra4 {9} 27. c5 $2 {259 [#]} (27. f3
$11 {and White has nothing to worry.} Nh6 28. Be4) 27... c6 $1 {175} 28. f3 {
1169 [#]} Nh6 $1 {4} 29. Re4 {473 [#]} Ra7 $1 {6} 30. Rb4 {43} Rb8 {8} 31. a4 {
18} ({Don't go for} 31. Bxc6 $2 Rxb4 32. Bxe8 {[#]} Rxb3 $1 33. axb3 Rxa1+ $19)
31... Raxb7 {47} 32. Rb6 {48} Rxb6 {7} 33. cxb6 {3} Rxb6 {9} 34. Nc5 {4} Nf5 {
75} 35. a5 {4} Rb8 {6} 36. a6 {5} Nxg3 {464} 37. Na4 {77} c5 {7} 38. a7 {12 [#]
} Rd8 $1 {2} ({Not} 38... Ne2+ 39. Kf2 Ra8 40. Nb6 Rxa7 41. Rxa7 $18) 39. Nxc5
$19 {327} Ra8 {138} 0-1
[/pgn]

[AlexChess]

Tal and Botvinnik will come back tonight

[Jouni]

27.c5 was definitely ?? Instant 0-1.

Analysis by Stockfish 14.1:

...
27...c6 28.f3 Nh6 29.Re4 Ra7 30.Rb4 Rb8 31.a4 Raxb7 32.Rxb7 Rxb7 33.Nd2 Ra7 34.Nc4 f6 35.a5
-+ (-4.01) Depth: 46/64 00:03:29 1431mN