Carlsen withdrawal after loss to Niemann

[M ANSARI]

By the way ... I saw this speech by the founder of Lichess and I thought it was very interesting. I had no idea that Lichess was just a bunch of volunteers providing a service. Really nice to see! There is a very interesting part where he discusses the problems they have with cheating and cheaters and how he deals with it. I thought it was especially funny when cheaters are (without their knowledge) put in a system where they only see other cheaters online and to challenge and play them . So you have a bunch of cheaters playing each other and going at it.

[Collingwood]

Hi guys, I watched the video of round 3 on youtube. Niemann is a genius or a cheater.

Carlsen didn't play well, but: Niemann almost never looked at the board, he played almost blind. You can see that in the video at 2h, then at 3.15h and at the end. Haha that was awesome. Unbelievable.

Did it have continuous video of the whole game, i.e. without any breaks?

[M ANSARI]

Xadrez Brasil has a video where the centi pawn loss is correlated with the strength of the player. Really interesting !!! I had no idea there was a linear relationship between strength and centi pawn loss to SF to create an ELO strength profile. They come up with Hans Nieman rating of 2500 ELO !!!

I don't know the exact methodology but is interesting nevertheless!

[dkappe]

If that is the case, why wouldn't it apply pretty much equally to Gukesh? Why the huge disparity between Gukesh's declining error rate and Niemann's steady error rate while both were making similar progress in their teen years? But then I don't have a better explanation for the similar rating climb with highly dissimilar error rate histories. It is a puzzle.

1) Niemann crossed the 2300 level in February of 2016, then, with this low aCPL, languished below 2400 until September of 2018, over two and a half years later. Note that he dips below 2300 quite a number of times. Could it be that our budding data scientists filtered those high 2200 games out?
2) Then, with this consistently low aCPL, he crossed into 2500 territory in February of 2021, a year and 5 months later.
3) Again, with this low aCPL, he crosses 2600 in August of 2021.
4) He continues to improve until the present day where he stands at 2699.

One thing worth noting is that we’re talking about SSS and an uneven number of games played.

Also, still no clear evidence that there is a strong correlation between aCPL and rating.

[Uri Blass]

I would like to see a similiar analysis about Mikhail Tal's games when he got better.

I know that he made unsound sacrifices.
A strong player may make wrong moves that cause the opponent also to go wrong and
I am not sure if the assumption that always a strong player improve his accuracy when he gets better is correct.

[dkappe]

I would like to see a similiar analysis about Mikhail Tal's games when he got better.

I know that he made unsound sacrifices.
A strong player may make wrong moves that cause the opponent also to go wrong and
I am not sure if the assumption that always a strong player improve his accuracy when he gets better is correct.

It may in fact be true, but like the validity of fingerprint identification, there’s nothing (NOTHING) in the scientific literature on that topic.

[CornfedForever]

I would like to see a similiar analysis about Mikhail Tal's games when he got better.

I know that he made unsound sacrifices.
A strong player may make wrong moves that cause the opponent also to go wrong and
I am not sure if the assumption that always a strong player improve his accuracy when he gets better is correct.

It may in fact be true, but like the validity of fingerprint identification, there’s nothing (NOTHING) in the scientific literature on that topic.

I would point out another player: Gata Kamsky. Gata recently said he gained about 300 rating points in (think he said) about a year. That puts Hans to shame...

[Uri Blass]

I would like to see a similiar analysis about Mikhail Tal's games when he got better.

I know that he made unsound sacrifices.
A strong player may make wrong moves that cause the opponent also to go wrong and
I am not sure if the assumption that always a strong player improve his accuracy when he gets better is correct.

It may in fact be true, but like the validity of fingerprint identification, there’s nothing (NOTHING) in the scientific literature on that topic.

I would point out another player: Gata Kamsky. Gata recently said he gained about 300 rating points in (think he said) about a year. That puts Hans to shame...

Here is Gata kamsky's rating history

https://www.olimpbase.org/Elo/player/Ka ... 0Gata.html

2380 1.1.1988 when he entered fide rating list with 25 games
2345 1.1.1989 got down in the rating based on 16 games
2345 1.7.1989 did not play for fide rating between 1.1.1989 and 1.7.1989
2510 1.1.1990 played 51 games and increased his rating by 165 elo
2650 1.7.1990 played 51 games and increased his rating by 140 elo

Note that Kamsky's rating got down later before getting up again.

[CornfedForever]

I would like to see a similiar analysis about Mikhail Tal's games when he got better.

I know that he made unsound sacrifices.
A strong player may make wrong moves that cause the opponent also to go wrong and
I am not sure if the assumption that always a strong player improve his accuracy when he gets better is correct.

It may in fact be true, but like the validity of fingerprint identification, there’s nothing (NOTHING) in the scientific literature on that topic.

I would point out another player: Gata Kamsky. Gata recently said he gained about 300 rating points in (think he said) about a year. That puts Hans to shame...

Here is Gata kamsky's rating history

https://www.olimpbase.org/Elo/player/Ka ... 0Gata.html

2380 1.1.1988 when he entered fide rating list with 25 games
2345 1.1.1989 got down in the rating based on 16 games
2345 1.7.1989 did not play for fide rating between 1.1.1989 and 1.7.1989
2510 1.1.1990 played 51 games and increased his rating by 165 elo
2650 1.7.1990 played 51 games and increased his rating by 140 elo

Note that Kamsky's rating got down later before getting up again.

Kaspersky warns me not to open the link you posted. But, yes, I think it was from 2345 to 2650 in 1 yr. Pretty darn impressive.

[M ANSARI]

Looks like a duck, waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck ... well maybe it really is a duck!